So now that we’ve had a few days to let everything settle, we’ve got a bit of a debate on our hands. No, I’m not talking about certain reader’s disdain for the synthetic surfaces of California. We’re talking about the “big question” - the one that keeps popping up everywhere from TVG to the Daily Racing Form, and even to Facebook and Youtube.
Will Zenyatta upset Curlin at the ballot box and earn Horse of the Year?
I find it rather fitting that in the same year as a hotly contested presidential election, thoroughbred horse racing has it’s own “vote”, and indeed it’s own “debate” and “campaign.” I’ve been back and forth over this issue several times in my mind. Not at all unlike the mysterious “undecided” voters we hear so much about on the nightly news. I’ll tell you that my initial reaction on Saturday was that hands down, Zenyatta should be Horse of the Year. However, having thought about it a bit more, I’m not so sure the champ can be taken down so easy.
Zenyatta is a masterpiece - there’s no denying that. Some would say she’s a California star, or a synthetics ace, but to say so patronizes and cheapens her abilities and accomplishments. She’s shown she has the class to travel east (namely to Oaklawn in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 5) and defeat the likes of Ginger Punch over regular dirt. She’s more than those things and may be the best filly we’ve seen in years. Best of all, she’ll reportedly be back for a 5-year-old campaign!
Zenyatta runs away with the Apple Blossom on true dirt at Oaklawn Park. If she wins Horse of the Year, I think it’s this race that puts her over the top, perhaps even more so than her effort in the Ladies’ Classic.
Clearly she defies those who wish to define her by such limited terms. She’s thrashed competition in all 9 of her lifetime starts, including her grand moment in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (formerly known as the Distaff) last Friday in what was her first appearance on national television (a tragedy in and of it’s own that national audiences were only seeing her for the first time - don’t even get me started…”Take Back Saturday” anyone???).
There are, however, some chinks in the armor. Not from a single race perspective, but from the perspective of assigning top honors to one thoroughbred above all others for the year. Let’s start with the obvious. Trainer John Shirreffs had a chance to enter the 4-year-old daughter of Street Cry in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but opted to pass and wanted no part of Curlin and the others running on Saturday. While this may have been a “safe” move, it unfortunately may have denied us our one golden opportunity to see the two best horses in the U.S. race head to head (no offense to Big Brown, of course). Had Shirreffs entered Zenyatta in the Classic, this whole argument would likely be settled. Instead we watched the undeniable best filly in the nation destroy a talented yet limited field in the Ladies’ Classic (only 7 others took her on). She also accomplished this in her own “backyard” at California - something voters may hold against her come January.
There’s also the matter that Curlin has travelled consistently all over the country, and indeed the globe, asserting his dominance over his division on a global scale. While Zenyatta did win an edition of the Ladies’ Classic on a highly international Breeders’ Cup weekend, the Ladies’ Classic itself was not an international affair. There was no Zarkava, not to mention a Goldikova, or a Raven’s Pass. Curlin hasn’t exactly been facing monsters lately either (with all due respect to Wanderin Boy), but he’s gone wherever he can to find competition, including the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita that he didn’t seem to enjoy, and the tricky voyage to and from Dubai, where so many other horses have seen their careers head inexplicably southward.
Lastly, there’s the issue of Beyer figures. Look, I respect Andy Beyer immensely. I’d do about anything for the chance to talk horse racing with the guy all day long. That being said, I’m not a guy who goes crazy (at least I try not to be “that guy” or “that handicapper”) using his speed figures as a handicapping crutch. I do, however, recognize their importance for comparing previous efforts and seeing how horses in a given field “stack up” against one another. After all, isn’t that really what we’re doing with Curlin and Zenyatta come Eclipse Award evening? In other words, I think they are worth bringing into the discussion, even if you aren’t a player that puts a lot of faith in them.
Zenyatta, for all her freakishness on the track, doesn’t win with mind boggling Beyer figures. In fact, her career best figure of 108 (earned in both the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret and the Grade 2 Clement L. Hirsch Handicap) is only 3 points higher than the absolute worst that Curlin has put up (105 in the 2007 Haskell).
For more recent comparison’s sake (not to mention using the same track as a measuring stick), Curlin posted a 106 Beyer figure for his run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday. A run that by Curlin’s standards appeared flat and one of the worst in his career. He had the heart and guts to get his nose in front at the top of the stretch, but he couldn’t sustain his drive and for the first time we saw rivals passing the amazing chestnut son of Smart Strike. Zenyatta, for all her magnificence, earned a 103 in the Ladies’ Classic. Another way of looking at this is to suggest that Curlin’s floor is capable of besting or being right their with Zenyatta’s ceiling. That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.
Of course, to suggest these and any other speed figures are apples to apples is to be a bit narcissistic, but this does lend itself to the prevailing question. Who would win between these two horses in a head-on battle? For the record, my money would depend on the surface. I’d give it to Zenyatta if we were talking about Santa Anita or another of the synthetic tracks. I’d give it to Curlin if we were talking about a true dirt track.
Curlin’s fans can rest comfortably for the moment knowing that some decisions are still being made. Where I had originally assumed the colt would be retired after his effort in the Classic, the first in which he failed to hit the board, that may not be the case. Trainer Steve Asmussen has been adamant that no decisions have been made yet.
Possibilities for Curlin would include the Grade 2 Clark Handicap on 11/28 at Churchill Downs, and the Japan Dirt Cup on 12/6 at Hanshin Racecourse. Then, of course, there is always the option he could take his skill to the barn and begin a well earned stud career.
So what say you? Don’t feel absolutely wed to your initial reactions. I’ve already examined mine and come to the conclusion that this issue merits some additional consideration before rushing to any judgement. Have you reached a decision on which horse should be Horse of the Year? If so, how much could the events of the Clark and/or Japan Dirt Cup further influence those decisions?
Edit: Perhaps we should take Handride’s approach and urge folks with an actual vote to support “Zen…rlin.”
Curlin would beat Zenyatta, so Curlin! Someone says Ravens Pass and I will loose it! #$#%^$%&%$^%$$#%%#%$^%^
Senator Shelton, the first question of this debate is yours….
Violet in Alabama asks:
“artificial surfaces - do they create artificial champions?”
be careful of beyers when comparing different company. they start out at different pars. if curlin and zenyatta both ran the same distance over the same track with the same track bias in the same time Curlin would always get a higher fig.
Interesting debate, which I know Patrick is carrying on at his place, too.
Two things:
1) Patrick is incorrect when he claims that Curlin’s Beyers would be higher than Z’s even if they ran the same distance in the same time, etc. While there are different par figs, the pars impact your variant, not your final fig. In other words, two horses running the same distance in the same time with the same variant will have the same figure — not a differing one, and certainly not one that is biased in one direction or another.
2) Typically when a horse who’s not an older male (or 3yo male who’s beaten handicap horses) wins HOY, it’s b/c the handicap division is in some disarray and none of the older horses has made a particularly compelling case for himself.
kev–it comes down to “who do you like” lets get real.
I like both horses-special in so many ways.
but my vote goes to Curlin.
I vote Curlin, he went out looking for tough competition and in most cases dominated.
I’m still debating.
Not easy.
Curlin has been amazing this year as has Zenyatta, but she has done everything in her comfort zone except for once. Curlin barely even touched his comfort zone and when he did, he won the Stephen Foster in a runaway. He raced on five different tracks, two different continents, on mud, dirt, grass and synthetic. He won the Dubai World Cup by a record margin, made it a repeat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and in the process became the richest thoroughbred in North American racing history. A spectacular year overall, taking nothing away from Zenyatta, but I don’t think she even comes close to what Curlin has accomplished this year.
So my vote is:
Curlin……………..and McCain-Palin!! (-:
Love Zenyatta but I love Curlin more. What’s love got to do , got to do, with it? You all know what Curlin has done.
Curlin has my vote.
Great stuff guys!
@Patrick - crap, didn’t mean to steal any thunder you were already doing over on your site (I linked to your bloodhorse article in the “take back Saturday, anyone??” part, for what it’s worth). Couldn’t agree more that Beyers aren’t apples to apples. Was trying to say that in my post.
@Frank - if I get a chance this weekend I’m going to mention somethings on behalf of MD racing this week. Meant to do a post tonight but Halloween with the 4-year-old kind of got in the way. Hope all is well over at That’s Amore!
@Robert - yup, and if it’s that simple than I’ve got to go Curlin.
@Amy - you mean I don’t have to make you sleep outside tonight?
@erniewolf - It is a toughie. Definitely not one to rush to judgement on. I’ve already changed my mind on it once and reserve the right to do so an infinite number of times before January.
@Brian - we have much in common, my friend!
@libby - Love it!!!! I tend to break out in song quite a bit here as well. Once I even chanelled Rocky and began versing “Eye of the Tiger” when Curlin was in Dubai. Glad to see my dorkdom is shared with others!
Love all you guys - thanks for the discussion!
“Violet in Alabama”, I would say Artificial Surfaces don’t create Artifical champs. I am sure Ravens Pass is one heck of a horse. However, every BC Classic has been run on Dirt and this surface cost the Best Older Horse since Cigar another Big Win. However, I am sure the US Horses will dominate next year. I predicted about a month before the race Big Beown and Curlin would not win this race because of this surface. Send the Euros back next year with nothing but hopes, dreams, and thrown whips! And Dettori is a Bum!
As someone coming from a different perspective from most of you guys , I’m going to have to say that I’m with Handride, because I agree with those “bottom lines”.
I don’t even know what the criterias are in selecting the NTRA HOTY, but I have a feeling it’s more of an subjective thing than say, adding up total wins or earnings; and I think this is where a lot of the Curlin supporters come in?
Personally, I am a huge fan of both Curlin and Zenyatta, and I don’t feel that whichever of the two ends up with the title actually means he or she is a “better” horse than the other, it just means that he or she had a better year.
While I’m at all, I think I’ll touch on the outcome of the BC Classic a bit — it’s just my opinion, of course, but I do think Ravens Pass deserves some recognition too — he ran a hell of a race, broke the track record to win it. Would he have won the race if it was on dirt? of course not…because he wouldn’t have been in the race, I don’t think.
My point is, if people are going to take issues with the (change of) footing, then take it up with NTRA, not on the horses.
One other thing that has crossed my mind since the race - had Big Brown not injured himself earlier and made it to the BC, would he have had a good chance of wining? I thought about this because he’s really more of a turf horse…or so I think anyway.
Yup - I agree with the Big Brown portion there - he probably would’ve run HUGE in this year’s classic considering he’s a darn good turfer. I don’t mean to take anything away from Raven’s Pass, either. “She” (hehe) is one helluva horse. My “artificial champions” was really just an attempt to stoke my old pal Shelton up there at the top into a cursing rampage. He’s been a little sensitive to the fact that the BC was run on synthetics.
Regarding the Beyers - I agree as well. I just tossed them out there for discussion’s sake, but with the caveat that it’s “narcissistic” to view them as apples to apples. After all, each race, each field, each distance, each track - there’s enough difference there to render them unique - but they do have a place in helping us begin to compare. They certainly aren’t the whole shebang, but they are part of the equation is all I”m suggesting - and it is interesting that Zenny’s “top” is just a few points from Curlin’s “bottom.” That’s one of those things that makes you go “hmmmmmmmmm.”
What is the TOC-TVG mess all about? Heard both sides and can’t follow it!!!!
Shelton,
Sorry it took so long for me to respond. Went on a brief hiatus after the BC weekend.
THe dispute is primarily about the percentage of out-of-state handle that the TOC would receive (I think).
I get a bit dicey on it as well. The bottom line is that handle coming from track attendees is down, and Hollywood is cutting purse money. The “growing” part of the business is out of state handle.
Depending on who you listen to, either one side or the other is “better” for the horsemen.
I’m not quite sure myself. All I know is that these kinds of disagreements are seriously unfortunate for the sport and for the parties involved. Hopefully it’s resolved soon, although the rhetoric wouldn’t lead one to believe it will.
Thankfully, I haven’t been shut out of anything through penn national (ebetusa).