Sunday wrap-up

30 11 2008

Well, I nailed one, was oh-so-close on one, and totally blew another.   Pretty typical. 

Looking back over my Sunday selections, I nailed Cocoa Beach for a decent score, although I now wish we could’ve had the 3/1 from the morning line.  I didn’t think everyone else was going to be all over her with Precious Kitten and Visit in the Matriarch, but then again the SoCal horseplayers are some of the best.

Cocoa Beach defeats Precious Kitten in the 27th running of the Matriarch Stakes at Hollywood Park 11/30/08

Just missed on what would’ve been a sweet 6/1 shot on Cowboy Cal in the Hollywood Derby.  Court Vision exploded to nail him late.  Almost….would have been nice to hit one with ‘Cal.  He still ran a big one.  Not sure where Albhari was as he didn’t look comfortable at all.  Big one for IEAH and Bill Mott.  Hats off to Court Vision.   I should mention that at one point around this time last year Court Vision was my 2nd choice (behind Majestic Warrior) in terms of future Derby contenders. 

Speaking of which…Gayego.  I’m sure some of you remember that at one point I actually dreamt he would win the Kentucky Derby.  Obviously that didn’t pan out, and today Gayego served me revenge (a dish best served cold) for my betrayal in selecting El Gato Malo over him.  Clearly “the Bad Cat” was compromised by the shortened distance, and Gayego was able to thrive over the cutback to prove victorious.  It’s good to see both of them back on the track.

Of course the biggest star of the day had to be Zenyatta.  It was her day.  Hopefully I can get my hands on a Zenyatta poster from the day. 

Well, it’s just about time to turn in and get back into work week mode.  I’m sure I’ll be burning with something to say come Wednesday or so.  My beloved Alabama Crimson Tide are of course bound for the SEC Championship Game against a high powered Florida team sure to be the toughest challenge we’ve confronted all season.  I’m already on pins and needles. 

In the world of horse racing we’re starting to get ready for the road to the roses.  You can feel it in the air.  It’s just around the corner. Think of it like this; If there’s another Curlin or Big Brown out there, chances are we either haven’t even seen him or perhaps didn’t realize what were seeing when we saw him.  Here’s making my early holiday wish that we get one for the ages this year.  One of those horses like Curlin or Big Brown that you just KNOW when you see them.  You never forget where you were or what you were doing when you saw them.  A moment frozen in equine space-time. Sheer bliss.

A guy can wish can’t he?  :)


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Categories : Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, El Gato Malo, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News, Precious Kitten

Sunday potpourri

30 11 2008
Wanderin Boy winning the 2007 Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs 5/5/07

Wanderin Boy winning the 2007 Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs 5/5/07

I wanted to take a brief moment to say goodbye to Wanderin Boy, who had to be euthanized yesterday after the Cigar Mile, as well as look at some of the races on the Hollywood Card as we wrap up the 2008 Turf Festival.

  • Wanderin Boy is to me one of the “Rodney Dangerfields” of thoroughbred racing.  He never got the respect he deserved.  In fact, his name was even touted around earlier in the year as evidence that Curlin had not been beating the toughest fields over the dirt since returning to the U.S.  “Experts” would scoff that beating Wanderin Boy wasn’t much to brag about. Perhaps we should all look again, as it bears mention that in his career Wanderin Boy not only banged heads with, but ran close seconds to Curlin, Invasor, Bernardini, and Lawyer Ron.  That’s quite a resume when you think about it.  Sadly he will run no more following his death on Saturday.  Folks may not realize it on the surface, but we just lost a good one.  Of course, it matters not how good the horse was, losing him is always too much.  Hopefully this will reignite the quest to drastically improve conditions in horse racing for human and equine athletes alike.  I’ll be honest and say that it was almost too much for me to even look at racing today.  There was a feeling of needing a day off after that.  Almost…and with each one there’s a sensation that it hurts a little more and the punch hits your gut a little deeper.  Rest in peace, Wanderin Boy.  You earned your stripes and then some.

 

  • Moving on with the ceaseless procession of time, let’s look at the feature races on the Hollywood card today.  The 27th running of the Grade 1 Matriarch looks like a good one in what may be the final race of Precious Kitten’s career.  ‘Kitten is dropping in from having faced the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but may well find herself out in front of an otherwise paceless race.  While ‘Kitten merits great respect and deserves to go out on top, I’m just not seeing it today.  I’ll cheer for her, but my wagers will lean elsewhere. The most logical play against Precious Kitten would seem to be Visit.  This just looks like a horse that is in prime form coming off a game 4th (beaten only 1 1/2 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  I expect she’ll take a lot of action at the windows for that.  Remember though, that she was able to dodge facing both Precious Kitten and Goldikova, who opted for the Breeders’ Cup Mile instead.  For that reason, I’ll look for a little value and turn to Cocoa Beach.  Cocoa Beach has improved in each of the last 3 races and ran well in a bigger race than any of todays rivals, the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, finishing 2nd behind the slow-cheetah herself, Zenyatta.  She’s got amazing versatility as demonstrated by her ability to run big over any surface.  I’ve got a feeling she’s on top of her game coming into this.  I’ll use ‘Kitten, Visit, and Rosinka underneath, and toss in Black Mamba and Roshani for show.  As of this writing, my bets would look like this:
    • $20 Win #9 Cocoa Beach
    •  $1 Tri; 9/3,5,7/1,3,5,7,8 ($12)

 

  • The feature of the day is the 67th running of the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby.  The main story here is the rematch between Gio Ponti and Court Vision who have battled it out splitting the Virginia Derby and Jamaica Handicap between them.  I get at least one Lee Corso impression a day with my picks, so here it is:  “Not so fast!!!”  I think the two favorites are vulnerable here. Court Vision because he just shipped in this week, and I’m always weary of “east coast” horses shipping west (would love to see an actual stat on how they fare, but from memory it can’t be good), and Gio Ponti because he’s been run down by Court Vision and Madeo in his most recent two.  Gio Ponti I actually think has the better shot of them, as his typical race puts him in a high 90′s Beyer area that ought to be good enough to win this, but I’ll play against his odds and guess that he’s eligible to be passed in the stretch.  But whom do we choose?  How about either Cowboy Cal or Albahri?  Cowboy Cal is a hit or miss type that is capable on his best stuff.  We saw  yesterday what can happen with a similar hit or miss type in Tale of Ekati.  Albahri is a bit more stable if you don’t mind the “fresh off the plane” angle.  He exits back to back scores in France and should be in a nice stalking position off expected pace setter Muny.   Underneath I’ll keep Muny around a 8/1,
    • $10 Win 3,4 ($20) Cowboy Cal/Albahri
    • $1 Tri: 3/4,7,9/2,4,5,7,9 ($12)

 

  • Not only will you be tantalizingly close to seeing the best filly in North America when the horses go to post in race 4 (Zenyatta is rumored to be paraded into the winner’s circle at some point on the card during the day of racing being held in her honor), but you’ll also get a very interesting rematch between two of the better three-year-olds on the SoCal circuit.  Gayego and El Gato Malo, once Kentucky Derby hopefuls earlier in the year, will face off against each other in an $80k optional claimer going  6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  I love Gayego, but he’s going to need to show me he’s had no ill effects from the sudden and dramatic downward spiral his career has taken since winning the Arkansas Derby.  El Gato Malo looks to be the one to beat here, although there is value in looking at either Talkin to Mom Roo or Peace Chant.  Neither of those runners will make it easy for the more well known duo. 
    • $10 Win #3 El Gato Malo
    • $2 Tri: 3/2,4,6/2,4,6 ($12)

Best of luck to all!

Oh yes, and if you haven’t already done so, be sure to check out my Zenyatta tribute video: “Slow Cheetah.”  It is “Zenyatta Day” after all!  Oh what the heck…I’ll just post it down here below again as well. Why not?  :)


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Categories : Cowboy Cal, El Gato Malo, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park

Saturday Stakes Selections

29 11 2008

What a GLORIOUS day for racing this Saturday is!  Rather than focus on one track in particular, we’re going to be all over the place in true ADD (Attention Deficit Disorder) fashion.  I’ve got 7major stakes races for which to give out selections, comprising races at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Hollywood Park.  I’ve listed them by post time, since we’ll be going fast and furious today in our best Matt Carouthers “:58 Flat” impression.  So sit back, buckle up, grease up the old wagering monkey (I don’t know, it sounded good as I was typing), and enjoy the ride.

2:49 EST – Aqueduct Race 6:  The G2 Demoiselle (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #5 Sky Diva (3/5*)
  • #2 Ain’t Love Grand (7/2)
  • #4 Springside (6/1)

The 87th running of the Demoiselle at Aqueduct is highlighted by the super-filly Sky Diva.  Two for three lifetime, her only defeat has come at the hands of the even more super-terrific Stardom Bound, and even then she was only 3 lengths away.  She gets lighter company here, and should sit a nice stalking trip and get a good crack at things turning for home. 

There appears to be a couple of horses with apenchant for going to the lead in here (Stormy’s Smile, Boleyn, etc.), but my choice for speed of the speed is Ain’t Love Grand.  I also think this daughter of Dixie Union will get the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Demoiselle with no trouble.  Love him or hate him, it’s hard not to give a Rick Dutrow runner a big fighting chance here.

Underneath I like a combination of Bluegrass Princess and Springside.  Since it’s a short field, you could probably add Stormy’s Smile and Boleyn to the bottom of the tickets if you wish to go that deep.

$1 Trifecta:  5/2,4,6/2,4,6 ($6)

 

3:19 EST – Aqueduct Race 7: The G2 Remsen (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #6 Old Fashioned (2/1*)
  • #7 American Dance (8/1)
  • #2 Idol Maker (7/2)

The 95th running of the Remsen has been circled on my calendar for about a week or so now for one main reason: Old Fashioned.  I’ll clue you in on a little secret, my newest “horse watch” stable online (which I plan on adding here shortly) has this guy in it as one to watch for the 2009 “Road to the Roses.”  Old Fashioned’s trainer Larry Jones is one of the best in the business with younger horses.  He looks versatile enough to be able to stalk here and get a clean trip.  If he shows up this one should be academic.

American Dance is a sneaky play underneath in the exactas. I think 8/1 is an incredible steal on this son of A.P. Indy who would appear to have a world of upside.  As the DRF notes, he’s kin to Saint Liam, a Horse of the Year winner, and has been working strongly for the Todd Pletcher barn.

Idol Maker is another to watch in her that could potentially hit the board. He’s been working with American Dance and most recently was a shade faster in the A.M. drills.  He cashed at 17/1 last time out and is being touted at 7/2 on the morning line.  My guess is we’ll get somewhere in between those two figures, say about 5/1 or 6/1. 

Outside of those, Jassandthemagician looks playable, although he’s also entered in the Kentucky Jockey Club at 4:27 PM several states to the west.  To be honest, I’m not sure where this guy runs today.  His odds are longer in the KY Jockey Club, but that may be his better win chance.  Rip Rap and Atomic Rain also look playable to me underneath.  Since we’ve got a $.10 superfecta we can play with here, why not go a bit deep, eh?

$.10 Superfecta: 6/2,3,7/1,2,3,4,7/1,2,3,4,7 ($6)

 

3:28 EST – Churchill Race 9: The G2 Golden Rod (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #3 Dream Empress (9/5)
  • #1 Sara Louise (8/5*)
  • #4 Rachel Alexandra (2/1)

My selections came up a bit chalky for the 66th running of the Golden Rod, and do note that we’ve jumped across town to legendary Churchill Downs for these selections.  Dream Empress exits a victory in the G1 Alcibiades and a tough 2nd place finish to Stardom Bound in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Since Stardom Bound is not here, I’ll guess that she shows she is the “best of the race” here in the Golden Rod.  The concern is of course that the Golden Rod is on true dirt and not synthetics, but this filly has shown the ability to win on turf and the artificial stuff, so I’ll guess that she’s handle the dirt just fine.  Trainer Kenneth McPeek (the “man who found Curlin”), has been on fire this year and doesn’t make many wrong moves.  He’s had Dream Empress training at Churchill ever since the Juvenile Fillies.  Hopefully he’s liked what he’s seen.

Sara Louise exits back to back victories, including over another of today’s arch rivals (Rachel Alexandra) in the Pocahontas earlier in the month.  We know she can run well on Churchill’s main track as she crushed the field that day to win by 3 3/4 lengths.  If for some reason Dream Empress doesn’t take to the dirt, this should be your winner.

Rachel Alexandra, War Echo, and Pearl of Valor were my selections to fill out the trifecta, and I’ll give Rachel Alexandra a small chance of cracking the exacta as well.  Really to me though, this race will be all about Dream Empress and whether she takes to the dirt or not.  Everything else is secondary.

$1 Trifecta: 3/1,4/1,4,6,7 ($6)

 

3:48 EST – Aqueduct Race 8:  The G1 Cigar Mile

  • #4 Bribon (6/1)
  • #2 Arson Squad (5/1)
  • #5 Tale of Ekati (12/1)

The 20th running of the Grade 1 Cigar Mile came up rather interesting with many directions for bettors to go.  We’ve got a competitive mix of 3-year-olds and older runners to choose from.  Ultimately I thought this one was all about the early pace, with potentially Monterey Jazz, Storm Play, and Wanderin Boy all assuring decent early clips.  I think that sets things up for the off-the-pace types, and of those I prefer Bribon and Arson Squad. 

Bribon exits a 105 Beyer effort at the optional claiming level, and really 3 of his last 4 races look good enough to put him in serious contention here.  The question will be how he handles the acid test moving up into the Grade 1 rankings today, but he certainly looks on paper like he’ll handle it well.

Arson Squad will likely take some serious play at the betting windows for the Rick Dutrow barn.  He exits a Grade 2 victory over Anak Nakal and certainly appears to have turned the corner since switching back to dirt from the synthetics of California.

Underneath I think Tale of Ekati has a chance to hit the board, and I love the 12/1 odds.  I wouldn’t totally toss out Wanderin Boy (who has finished 2nd to a bevy of more talented runners in his career), Kodiak Kowboy (another candidate for a great trip), and the speedy Monterey Jazz.

$.10 Superfecta: 2,4/2,4,5/2,4,5,8,9/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 ($6)

 

4:27 EST – Churchill Race 11: The G2 Kentucky Jockey Club

  • #3 Beethoven (7/2)
  • #4 Stormalory (6/1)
  • #8 Capt. Candyman Can (8/5*)

We move on to two-year-olds in the 83rd running of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club.  Most of the selections I’ve seen favor morning line favorite Capt. Candyman Can to rattle off his 3rd lifetime victory.  I think he’s a talented runner, but on a day filled with big College Football games as well, allow me to break out my Lee Corso impression and say “not so fast, my friends!”

Beethoven is my selection here as I feel he’s in top form coming into this for trainer John Ward.  Jockey Jordan Leparoux jumped ship to stick with the favorite, but Beethoven picked up the services of Calvin Borel as a concession.  Not bad, huh?  Might we have a masterpiece coming? 

Stormalory got beaten by a neck facing Beethoven last out, and these guys could be finish one/two yet again.  I do think Capt. Candyman will hit the board, I’m just not sold on him enough to play him at 8/5.  I’ll roll the dice on Beethoven over these two, and toss in Zion, Jassandthemagician (if he runs here rather than the Remsen), and Star of David underneath.  If he makes a favorable post parade impression, I’d consider using Coal Barron, who does have some useful angles to consider.

$1 Trifecta: 3/4,8/4,5,6,8 ($6)

 

2:32 PT (5:32 EST) – Hollywood Race 5: The G3 Generous (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #1 Bittel Road (9/5*)
  • #2 Mr. Rod (6/1)
  • #7 Bourbon Bay (3/1)

We switch not only coasts but surfaces for the 26th running of the Grade 3 Generous at Hollywood Park.  The first of many stakes races at the “turf festival” out at the ‘wood.  Bittel Road looks tough to beat to me.  I, like many others, thought he was playable in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but he wound up finishing 8th out of a field of 12.  That’s certainly a tad disconcerting here.  Prior to that he had been unbeatable though.  He had an extreme outside  post position that day at Santa Anita, and now moves back to the more friendly inside (at least for him according to his past performances).  He also picks up the services of veteran jockey Michael E. Smith, and with the speed he’s flashed before should be in contention for this the whole way around the track.

Mr. Rod is likely the early speed here, and the question for him will be whether or not he can hang on.  I’ll wager that he stays around for place or show.  Hype, Bourbon Bay, and Battle of Hastings are in my next tier of horses.  Ultimately I gave the nod for 3rd choice to Bourbon Bay by virtue of his addition of blinkers and jockey Rafael Bejarano.  Don’t sell Hype or Battle of Hastings too short though as both are eligible to make their presences felt.

$1 Trifecta: 1/2,3,7/2,3,4,7 ($9)

 

4:35 PT (7:35 EST) – Hollywood Race 9: The G3 Hollywood Turf Express Handicap (6 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #10 California Flag (7/2*)
  • #9 Carrilero (6/1)
  • #1 Delta Storm (5/1)

We wind up with my least favorite type of race to handicap, a turf sprint in the Grade 3 Hollywood Turf Express Handicap.  At least this one came up deep and looks interesting.  California Flag was a trendy pick for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, but was compromised by frast early fractions due to the presence of Mr. Nightlinger.  He should get an easier trip of it today, but he must not burn himself out.  We should know fairly early on whether he’s in position to hang on or to start moving backwards as the wire approaches. 

Carrilero is a major threat here in my opinion.  He was on the bench for almost half a year before returning and cashing last out against softer competition.  He should be more fit now and has every reason to move forward off that last effort.  If he does, watch out…thief alert.  

Delta Storm I’m picking just because this feels like the type of race that Aaron “the rider” Gryder finds a way to grind out.  The last couple of times he’s been positioned along the rail he’s done well, although if he were to hook up withCalifornia Flag at all it would likely ruin the chances of both of them.  My guess is he’ll find a comfortable spot to rate, maybe even save some ground, and try to muscle his way through at the end.   I’ll also use One Union and Joe Bravo underneath to round out the ticket.

$1 Trifecrta: 10/1,9/1,2,8,9 ($6)

Best of luck to everyone and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches – and be sure to watch the post parades!


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park

Zenyatta tribute video – Slow Cheetah

28 11 2008

It’s been a while since I made a tribute video, but with nothing to do the day after Thanksgiving I figured it was time to put one together.  I’m still working on a Curlin video for his 2008 campaign, but have not finalized yet.  Instead, I’m featuring my tribute to the amazing filly Zenyatta, set to the tune of “Slow Cheetah” by the Red Hot Chili Peppers

 

 

Some folks might take issue with the selection of a song with the word “slow” in the title, but such concern is superficial.  I felt the track conveyed much of the passion fans of Zenyatta have experienced throughout  the last year.  In fact, my biggest problem was trying to cram as many race replays into the video as possible without it becoming boring.  Hopefully the video editing is up to par from what folks expect. 

Several parts in particular stood out to me – especially the part about her being “misunderstood” and “dressed like a wedding cake” while one of her more flattering profile pictures is displayed.  I even snuck in some screenshots of this blog during some fitting lyrics.  Wherever possible I tried to match the lyrics with what was happening in the photos and in the overall story I was trying to tell.

Now that Curlin has retired, the emptiness in my heart will be filled with horses like Zenyatta, who will enter 2009 as my favorite horse in racing.  I feel I’ve got a special bond with her as I remember her maiden race well.  I think I’ve only missed one of her races (the allowance race in her 2nd effort) live on TVG.  I doubt I’ll miss any more next year.

Let me know what you think – I always try to make these as exciting and passionate as I can.  Thanks to all the folks who have put up pictures and video of Zenyatta around the web.  I remember just several months ago there was a definite lack of Zenyatta media available.  Now that she’s a “living legend” that has thankfully changed.

Who knows, might Zenyatta continue in the footsteps of the greatness that was Ruffian or the undefeated excellence of Personal Ensign next year?  She’ll certainly have a chance.  Here’s hoping this time next year I’m making a new tribute video to her.


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Friday Hollywood Park Selections

28 11 2008

Hopefully everyone had  a wonderful Thanksgiving.  It’s time now to break out the leftovers, do some Christmas shopping (lord knows the economy needs it), and maybe make a little something on the side while you enjoy a solid day of racing at Hollywood Park.  We’ve got two graded stakes on the card this afternoon – the Grade 3 Miesque and the Grade 1 Citation Handicap. Ten races in total to cover, so without further adieu we’ll just jump right in.

Race 1: Clm 40000 (6 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #4 Zetterberg (2/1*)
  • #3 Carson’s Copper (5/2)
  • #1 Professnl Courtesy (4/1)

We open with a $40k claimer for three-year-olds going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  Zetterberg is the morning line favorite and meritstop honors from me as well.  He’s dropping in from the $50k level where he ran well finishing 3rd, beaten only by 1 length.  He also seems to enjoy the 6 1/2 furlong distance (4-1-1-1 lifetime).  Carson’s Copper is not only the “horse for the course” play (4-3-0-1 lifetime), but also could be the speed here.  Unless Zuri Mwana goes as well, he could get on the lead comfortably.  He’s had some trouble hanging on before, but note that he defeated Superfecta back on July 31 (we’ll see Superfecta again later on in race 5).  Professnl Courtesy is likely to make my spell check feature here go crazy, but he’s a dangerous customer in this race.  If he shows up with his typical run, he’s clearly capable.  Like Zetterberg, he’s a class dropper from the $50k level.  He may be the best horse in the field, but I ranked him 3rd as I was a bit worried he might leave himself too much to do to prevail here.  I’m on the fence with this guy.  Soda Pop Kid is another worth looking at in the post parade. I have a feeling this gelding son of Lemon Drop Kid is going to move forward again. I just wish there was more value than the 3/1 listed on the morning line.  I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger with that kind of risk/reward scenario.

 

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 36k (6 Furlongs)

  • #1 Star Redeemer (7/2)
  • #9 Leavethegateopen (5/2*)
  • #5 Korban (8/1)

The 2nd race is for maiden special weights going 6 furlongs over the main track.  Star Redeemer has been close before and on paper should probably handle this field, but if he fails again will start cementing his reputation as a money burner (he’s been favored twice already in 4 starts and could be here as well come post time).  He is training well, plus you’ve got to like the combination of jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer John Sadler.   Speaking of John Sadler, he’s also got the morning line favorite in Leavethegateopen.  This one has been progressing nicely and should definitely be more involved (at least early on) than Star Redeemer.  Another step forward would put this one in the winner’s circle.  Korban is an interesting debut starter sired by Benchmark.  I’m always keen to watch Benchmark’s offspring first time out, and note that trainer Martin Jones is respectable with first time starters (11%).  To be honest, I prefer the workout tab of Crazy Wager among the debut horses, but I sided with Korban for 3rd choice based on trainer form and my affinity for Benchmark’s young.

 

Race 3: Clm 12500 (6 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #5 Satellite (3/1)
  • #7 Brooker (2/1*)
  • #3 Saxophone (7/2)

I came up rather boringly obvious here.   Brooker appears to be the overwhelming favorite on paper, but there is cause for concern here.  For one, he’s dropping through the claiming ranks and also managed to be trounced at the $25k level last out. It’s also troubling to see his workout tab surprisingly barren for a horse that’s been off since late September.  I wouldn’t be too confident with this guy. He’s also a closer in a field somewhat devoid of speed, so I’m going to try and beat him with a more forwardly placed runner – namely, Satellite.  Satellite’s last 3 races all look usable to me, and I like that he’s won at this distance.  Truth be told, I”d prefer better than 3/1, but this is a short field so beggars can’t be choosers.  Seth the Candyman and Saxophone were close for third selection.  Of those two I’d rate Saxophone just a tad higher in terms of recent form as well as the quality of the competition he’s faced.

 

Race 4: Clm 40000 (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #3 Skippy Due (7/2)
  • #4 Nima’s Pad (2/1*)
  • #6 Headache (4/1)

We’ve got another competitive claimer (despite a short field) in the 4th race.  We’re routing this time over the  main track after a trifecta of sprints earlier on the card.   Skippy Due is a hard knocker from the Art Sherman barn that should get a decent trip today.  To be honest, I have the top 3 runners all ranked equally.  Skippy Due appeared to be in decent form, Nima’s Pad has the Bejarano/Sadler angle going for him, and Headache has defeated Skippy’s Due on two occasions.  Tough race. Hopefully we’re still alive in the Pick 4, as I plan on going at least 3 deep here, despite the lack of value available.

 

Race 5: Clm 12500 (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Superfecta (5/2*)
  • #6 You Is What You Is (3/1)
  • #9 Michael’s Notes (4/1)

This one looks like a two horse race to me.  Superfecta is fast becoming one of my favorite claimers in the country. You seldom get the kind of consistency he’s demonstrated in horses at this level (7-4-2-0 for 2008).  What’s not to like?  He’s trained by Ted West, who seems to be a man on a mission lately out in California (56% winning percentage thus far at the Hollywood meet), and he’s dropping in class from the $16k ranks.  You Is What You Is will likely give him all he can handle though.  The 3-year-old son of Old Topper is actually slightly more accomplished at the 6 furlong distance, and now picks up the services of jockey Garrett Gomez.  Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer seems to be squeezing all the talent he can get out of ‘Is. Michael’s Notes is an x-factor to me.  His first few races show much better form, and if he’s able to rekindle some of that magic he clearly belongs here.  Do note how many times he’s been favored though, as he’s also clearly becoming a notorious underlay.  If you want to go a differentdirection underneath the top two, pay attention in the post parade to Norco Pal, Lardog, and Texas Devil.  Any of those could easily wind up hitting the board.

 

Race 6: The Grade 3 Miesque (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #6 Emmy Darling (7/2)
  • #8 Habaya (5/2*)
  • #2 Internally Flawless (3/1)

We head to the turf for the Miesque, for fillies two-years-old and upward routing 1 mile over the grass.  Emmy Darling is my pick for the Miesque.  She’s been banging heads with Maram and Stardom Bound and will no doubt find the competition easier here.  If she was good enough to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, she’s good enough to compete for the Miesque.  I also like that her two best races thus far were at Hollywood, albeit over the synthetic track.  Habaya will take a lot of play at the windows and rightfully so.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has this daughter of Storm Cat headed in the right direction.  Note that she lost to Laragh in the Jessamine while finishing a respectable 2nd (although it was by over 4 lengths).  She’s had some trouble in each of her races and has reason to move forward if everything goes her way.  Internally Flawless exits a maiden score on the grass at Santa Anita and jumps right into Stakes company.  I like that vote of confidence.  I like that Garrett Gomez stuck aboard as jockey even more.  If you’re looking for a longshot, consider #3 Atka. She’s battle tested, although she’s probably best used underneath on the exotics.

 

Race 7: Md 32000 (6 Furlongs)

  • #10 Miki’s King (10/1)
  • #6 Bartok’s Magic (10/1)
  • #5 Graceful Dude (10/1)

I’m going to be absolutely honest here, I don’t like this race.  I have almost no opinion whatsoever.  With that in mind, and considering how many chalky picks I’ve been forced into due to smaller field sizes in the earlier races, I’m going for a longshot here.  Miki’s King looks like a horse with decent bloodlines debuting for a barn that does well with first timers (Melody Conlon - 17%). Why not?  None of the horses with experience in this race look daunting to me.  I’ll roll the dice.  Likewise, I’ll make second choice out of Bartok’s Magic.  These Bartok offspring show up from time to time ready to run at first asking.  Trainer Richard Baltas has a $4.95 ROI with 1st timers.   I see no need to change this style of thinking for my third selection – Graceful Dude.  ‘Dude is going out for trainer Peter Eurton, who is also respectable with such runners (15%).  He also picks up the services of M.C. Baze.  I’ll let one of the more seasoned runners beat me here if they can. 

 

Race 8: The Grade 1 Citation Handicap (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

  • #9 Whatsthescript (5/2*)
  • #1 Hyperbaric (3/1)
  • #6 Formal Decree (9/2)

The feature race of the afternoon is the Grade 1 Citation Handicap going 1 1/16 miles over the Hollywood turf.  This feature looks as good as advertised as it’s come up extremely tough on paper.  Whatsthescript was a sexy choice for the Breeders’ Cup Mile last month at Santa Anita.  Things didn’t work out that day as he ran into a super filly in Goldikova.  We’ll see if that took a bit out of him or if he’s ready to make amends today.  I’ll guess that it’s the latter as he’s trained well since that defeat.  Hyperbaric is very playable here as well, especially if you can get something better than the current 3/1 odds.  This is a guy coming into today with impeccable form, having won 3 consecutive races.  He’s stepping up in class to face Grade 1 competition, but he’s doing so fresh and like Whatsthescript is doing so after working well in preparation.  Formal Decree is the likely upset specialist here exiting 4 consecutive very strong efforts, each one slightly better than the last.  Another move forward puts him right in the mix here.  Plus, after having watched the Breeders’ Cup, does anyone feel confident leaving out a horse with European bloodlines?   Didn’tthink so.  I really want to see Rebellion run well here for trainer Graham Motion so that he has a holiday to remember, but these are deep, deep waters.  I’ll use him underneath along with Proudinsky on my exotics. 

 

Race 9: OC 25k/N1X (7 Furlongs)

  • #1 Draft Choice/ #1A Swift Demand (2/1*)
  • #7 My Summer Slew (8/1)
  • #5 Unvarnished (10/1)

The 9th race is a peculiarly difficult optional claimer going the ever-tricky 7 furlong distance over the main track.  I prefer the two horses comprising the coupled entry of Draft Choice and Swift Demand for top honors.  Really I like them both equally.  I’ll give Swift Demand a slight nod for top honors.  Outside of them there are several directions you could make a case for.  My Summer Slew looks usable to me, although I prefer to avoid these Golden Gate shippers.  I like that debut and think that trainer Steven Miyadi may have one that can steal the race here at 8/1.  Unvarnished will have to wake up with the addition of blinkers, a move that trainer Gary Mandella has used with some success (12%) in the past.  I’m not sure what to make of Kalookan Event here.  I debated listing him in the selections as well. If you toss his last race he clearly fits, so don’t totally overlook him (especially if he looks good going to post).

 

Race 10: MD 25000 (5 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #9 President Elect (5/2*)
  • #12 Midnight Corredor (5/1)
  • #10 Warren’s Yodler (6/1)

I’m not a fan of 5/12 furlong sprints, and I’m even less of a fan of the horses entered in this field.  There’s really not one horse that deserves being made a top selection.  President Elect obviously has some connotations considering where we are in the current national political cycle and trainer Doug O’Neill has him working well.  Okay, I’ll bite and make him top choice.  Midnight Corredor just turned in a bullet work on 11/23 going 4 furlongs in :46 and change, so perhaps he’ll be on his toes and ready to run?  Warren’s Yodler has been a money burner at the windows, but if he ever is going to show a hint of talent, this looks to be the field to do it against.

Best of luck to all, as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park

Honoring the best

25 11 2008

“A day in the Marine Corps is like a day on the farm!

Ever meal a banquet…every paycheck a fortune…every formation a parade!

I love the Corps!”

-Sgt “Apone” from the film Aliens

 

I’m not sure what the above quote really has to do with anything, apart from the fact that it mentions parades, and parades are the order of the day for Thanksgiving weekend (well, that and the fact that I grew up idolizing the Colonial Marines in James Cameron’s brilliant sequel to the original Alien film directed by Ridley Scott).  No, I’m not talking about the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade, either. 

This weekend will present racing fans with a unique opportunity to pay tribute to two of the top horses in the world for 2008.  Curlin and Zenyatta are being featured after the Thanksgiving holiday in what appears to me to be something similar to the Presidential campaign trail we all grew so fond of (and yet so tired of) during the past few months. 

On Saturday, 11/29, Curlin will be paraded around the track at Churchill Downs between the 5th and 6th races on the card.  Immediately following the parade, Curlin will be honored in the winner’s circle one final time with a special salute.

Zenyatta, the amazing undefeated filly who is likely Curlin’s biggest competition for Horse of the Year honors, will be featured at Hollywood Park on Sunday 11/30, along with a commemorative poster signed by jockey Michael E. Smith. 

Doesn’t this sort of feel like two candidates out there stumping on the campaign trail?  They even appear to be solidifying their base.  It was at Churchill, after all, where Curlin received his biggest standing ovation after returning from the Dubai World Cup as a world champion and then conquering the Stephen Foster.  Zenyatta is of course the most famous horse now on the southern California racing circuit, so she will be playing to her base at Hollywood.

My only questions are these.  Firstly, who’s going to snag me a Zenyatta poster?  I’m on the wrong coast to visit Hollywood over the weekend. Hopefully someone can get there hands on an extra for me.  Secondly, where’s Curlin’s commemorative poster? 

The answer to the second question may already be in the works.  Some of you may have seen comments from a reader named “Libby” here from time to time.  Like me, she’s a self-described “world’s biggest fan” of Curlin, and she’ll be doing her part by heading out to Churchill on the 29th to say goodbye to Curlin.  She’s even taking it a step further and actively seeking fan contributions in an effort to make her own Curlin poster.  If you’re interested in contacting her, she can be reached at libbybar@gmail.com

(note: Libby – let me know if you want me to take down the email address from this post…last thing in the world I want is for you to get spammed at all)

I’ve already made an effort to notify “team Curlin” about Libby’s plan.  Here’s hoping they spot her on Saturday and give her some sort of hat tip.  God knows Curlin has meant the world to many of us, and we realize how lucky we were to have been able to witness his 4-year-old campaign.

As to the debate and the corresponding million dollar question as to who should be Horse of the Year?  I’ll be honest, I’m happy either way.  Usually in an “election” like this, I despise each candidate equally and either vote against one or choose the lesser of two evils.  Thankfully, this decision seems to be the complete opposite.  You really can’t go wrong with either horse.  I believe I could make a compelling case for either of them.  Conversely, they each have factors working against them.  All I know is this, come January at the Eclipse Awards, I’ll be happy whichever of them wins top honors.

Speaking of the Eclipse Awards, did anyone notice in the coverage surrounding Zarkava winning European Horse of the Year that the fans are actually allowed to participate in the voting process?  Seems a noble idea to me.  From what I hear (my source on this is the worldly Superfecta), it’s not very well known or publicized, but still – it trumps being totally shut out like we are here in the U.S.!  Horse racing fans are nothing if not opinionated.  I say it’s high time to declare “no fanship without representation” – and yes, I’ve actually ripped open some tea packets and am dumping them into the sink in a sign of solidarity with my fellow racing fan brethren (and sistren – if that’s even a word).

I realize that I’ve danced around the issue, so for once and for all I’ll make my case for what my vote might would be if anyone cared to make it count.   I must confess here that like many a politician on the campaign trail, I’m somewhat guilty of flip-flopping on my decision.  Readers of this blog may be confused, as I’ve steadfastly been in Curlin’s corner all year long, but folks who have connected with me on applications like Facebook and Twitter no doubt saw my update immediately after the Ladies’ Classic indicating “Zenyatta for Horse of the Year- she’s earned it.”

I still think that statement could be true, but I’m officially throwing my support behind Curlin.  Why?  Well, it’s quite simple really.  Curlin, in my opinion, remained the best dirt horse in the world.  Speaking of “the world” – he travelled the globe taking on the best competition in his division.  He was only able to be defeated when stepping off the dirt (i.e., in the Man O’ War, his only turf try, and the 2008 Classic over the artificial Pro-Ride of Santa Anita).  Zenyatta, for all she’s accomplished (and she is VERY accomplished, so I don’t mean to take anything away from her) did not travel so diligently.  True, she tried the dirt and proved she was a top notch horse by prevailing over it, but her campaign was largely in the friendly confines of California, and mostly over synthetics.  In a year dominated by 3-year-old fillies (Zarkava, Goldikova, etc.), she managed to avoid ever having to face the top flight in her division.  True, she throttled anything they threw at her here in the U.S., but I would prefer to have seen her take on the best in the world at her division and prevail before anointing her and passing Curlin’s crown.  I also submit that her connections could’ve placed her in the Classic, and opted for the Distaff (err…I mean “Ladies’ Classic) instead.  In hindsight I think she could have won the Classic against boys and ended the entire debate, but alas that did not happen, so here we are.

Like I said though, I’ve got nothing but love for either runner, so whichever way the winds of fate blow I shall be happy.  Happy to have lived to see these two amazing horses compete and happy to have followed them their entire careers.  While my heart will be saddened at the prospect of seeing the majestic Curlin for the final time on Saturday, hope springs eternal with the fact that Zenyatta will be back for 2009.  Who knows, maybe next year it will be her turn to defeat the boys in the Classic and stamp her name as one of the best fillies in ages?  Anything is possible.  I know I’ll be waiting and watching with eager anticipation.  On this week of Thanksgiving, I know I’ve got a lot to be thankful for over the past year, and being able to follow Curlin and Zenyatta ranks high on that list.


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Curlin becomes a $75k stud; Shakis is euthanized

22 11 2008

 

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

 

 

- Charles Dickens

 

Once again we have mixed emotions swirling throughout the landscape of thoroughbred horse racing.  One piece of news reminding us of the dangers that still exist, the other reminding us of the glory of what has been and what may be again.

Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year, is officially finished.  No more rumors about a potential “last race.”  He’s standing stud at Lane’s End for $75,000.  He’ll take his class, speed, and stamina and attempt to become a champion stud now rather than a champion runner.  If he’s half the stud he was a racehorse, the breed will do well to get the infusion of his talents and abilities.

I’m no breeding expert by far, but my personal hope is that perhaps he is paired with a Giant’s Causeway or A.P. Indy mare.  What little I know (or at least I think I know) about breeding makes me think those pairings might be intriguing.  The part I’m somewhat uncertain about is how the ubiquitous Mr. Prospector lineage might limit his ability to breed successfully with many of the bigger named mares?  Oh well, we’ll let all of that play out on it’s own.

In perhaps his final “competition”, Curlin nudged out “rival” (I say that with quotes as it’s hard to consider two colts who never faced one another “rivals” in the true sense of the word, however I’ll submit that the drama filled exchanges between each colt’s camp was enough to warrant special rivalry consideration for the purposes of the point I’m making) Big Brown by $10,000 in terms of his stud fee.  That’s just one more notch on his belt, I suppose.  Although I suppose that says more about me than it does about Curlin that I actually take pride in that fact.

Ironically though, his $75,000 fee is decidedly less (roughly half) of what his father, the super sire Smart Strike, now commands at stud.  Like father like son.  You know what they say, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Hopefully that holds true for Curlin’s offspring as well.

I still think his story is one of the most amazing in recent memory.  A $57,000 purchase in 2004 who went on to win 11 of 16 races and become thoroughbred racing’s first “$10 million man.”  It’s the stuff of legends.  It may be quite some time, especially at the rate the top thoroughbreds are presently retired once they achieve greatness, before we see another career like his. 

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In totally unrelated news, the two time winner of the Bernard Baruch Handicap at Saratoga, Shakis, had to be euthanized yesterday.  Apparently  he was injured during a workout and had to be put down. 

Those who have followed this blog may remember my long standing strained emotions with respect to Shakis.  Like many horseplayers, I probably held too much of a grudge against him for my own foolish handicapping.  During Preakness Day 2008,  Shakis was upset by longshot Pays to Dream in the Dixie Stakes.  This was the only race in the Pick 6 sequence that I lost.  My emotions are forever captured in the Cindy Pierson Dulay photograph below, as Pays to Dream crosses the line and I flash Shakis a look of strong disapproval for his performance (I’m the guy in the yellow hat/blue shirt in the left of the image – and I’m glaring right at Shakis). Like I said though, that was my fault for doing shoddy handicapping and not the fault of Shakis.  Like all thoroughbreds, all he did was go out and give his all every time he ran.  Can’t knock a guy for giving his best.  I actually feel quite shameful now for ever having been upset with him.

 

Pays to Dream upsets Shakis in the 2008 Dixie Stakes at Pimlico. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay. www.horseracing.about.com

Pays to Dream upsets Shakis in the 2008 Dixie Stakes at Pimlico. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay. www.horseracing.about.com

 

Obviously that one race was not the entire story for Shakis’ career. Not only was he a two-time winner of the Bernard Baruch, but trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin called him a “barn favorite” and a “neat horse.’  It’s never a appropriate to joke about one of our horses going down, and despite my shaky relationship as a bettor with him, I’d like to take this moment to officially state my condolences to all associated with Shakis.

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Lastly, just wanted to point out that the “why horse racing must tell its own story” column is now up on Bloodhorse and getting all kinds of feedback.  Some good, some bad.  One thing you know going into such an effort is that many (if not most) folks will resist, resist, resist, and will do nothing but criticize without offering anything constructive in retort.  The thing to remember is that even those people are committed fans who deep down want to see the sport succeed.  The way I look at it, if they are resisting, that just means we have an opportunity to do a better job of explaining.  Plus, you have to walk a mile in someone’s shoes, and no doubt they’ve been before where I am now  – young, dumb, and full of hope (ha! Thought that one might go a different way, didn’t ya?).  I know it failed miserably in Vietnam, but at some point we’ve just got to win their hearts and minds.  I’m convinced that our desires are the same. It’s our experiences, concerns, and expectations that are unique.


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Categories : Curlin, Horse Racing News

Change

20 11 2008

Depending on the situation, the word change either invokes a religious like fervor for reform, or reduces people to quivering masses of fear and uncertainty.  One thing is certain, as the hands of time move ever forward, change inevitably becomes – well, inevitable.

This isn’t some random rant about recent national elections.  I tend to shy away from direct (or even abstract) political musings wherever possible.  They are simply too divisive.  That doesn’t mean that every potentially divisive issue must be ignored or swept under the rug though.  Some you have to just come right out and confront.

The “change” we’re talking about here is within the sport of horse racing.  As anyone who has read this blog before knows well, I had the opportunity to take part in the NTRA online marketing task force several months ago in Las Vegas, where a group of bloggers, fans, and others involved with horse racing were asked to come up with a way to market the sport to a new generation of fans.

I blogged a bit about this, then sort of went back to business as usual only making passing references to what was done. As my recent post about horse racing needing to “tell it’s own story” showed, some recent events have brought things back to the surface.  Namely, the state of affairs following the retirement (or near-retirement, since technically there still “could” be one last race – although it won’t be the Clark Handicap) of thoroughbred racing’s richest horse: Curlin. 

Recently I ventured over to Alex Waldrop’s blog on the NTRA website.  During my trip to Vegas, I had the pleasure of meeting Alex and left convinced he was possibly the only guy in the world that could “save” horse racing.  I still feel that way.  He’s been out in the forefront of some aggressive “change” reforms all year long – pushing to ban race-day drugs from the sport as much as possible, and trying to unify a typically pessimistic “we can’t accomplish that” base.

I’m pleased to see that he’s out in front again, talking about “innovative reforms”and pointing out that in a declining economy with rapidly evaporating handles at out tracks that we “don’t have the luxury of allowing disagreements (such as ADW disagreements) to disenfranchise players.”  He then asks what other innovations fans want to see – and I encourage anyone who cares about the state of horse racing (whether you agree with me or not) to sound off.

You can see my long-winded, “Take Back Saturday” infused response as the 4th comment to the post.  Actually, I kind of look like a raving psychopath in hindsight.  I assure you all that there were paragraph breaks in the comment as I typed it - although now it looks like one jumbled, run-on sentence…but I digress.  The point is that we should all speak up. And yes, I wholeheartedly concede that the possibility exists I may just be a raving psychopath.  I must concede the possibility exists, at least.

To summarize my feelings, I know that Alex is focused on cleaning up “drugging”, resolving the ADW issue, and on improving human/equine safety within the sport.  I feel all of this is well and good, but that none of it will really matter if we don’t find a way to give our sport more relevance.  This is largely a repeat of my previous column, but I’ll stick with it until the message gets through.  If the only thing that matters in our sport is one day, and indeed 2 minutes of one day (the running of the Kentucky Derby), then all the reforms in the world won’t save us, no matter how fitting, proper, and necessary they are. 

What say you?  Oh yes, and please, if you’re passionate enough to leave a comment here, I beg of you to comment over on Alex’s post where the NTRA willactually hear what you have to say.  It matters not if you agree or disagree with my stances, the important thing is to stand up and be heard.

In lighter news, is anyone planning on purchasing a “moneigh” for a loved one over the holidays?


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