THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Edit:  Have to put a tiny disclaimer up here.  I evidently used an early addition of the DRF and did not double check the odds (my bad) – so a few of my thoughts with respect to odds have been altered. You’ll see blue text along with the word “Edit” where this is the case.

From the film “Braveheart”:

“Fine speech, now what do we do?”

“Just be yourselves.”

“Where are you going?”

“I’m going to pick a fight!”

“Well…at least we didn’t get dressed up for nothing!” 

Ah yes, nothing like quoting a film featuring “crazy Mel” to get you geeked up and ready to jump back into the familiar fray of trying to pick winners in horse racing.  As for the “dressed up for nothing” comment – I thought about making some reference to the fact that I would (at least temporarily) put down the Guitar Hero controller and change into something less humiliating than simply my undies to make these picks (it’s a Guitar Hero right of passage….if you’re not “rocking out” in your undies, then you’re a total poser in my book…best to do it Tom Cruise style ala Risky Business – although feel free to leave the Scientology garbage at the front door). 

We’ve got 9 races to cover at Hollywood.  On the surface, it would appear I’m a day late and a dollar short here, as some lucky bastard hit the Pick 6 for $665,32.40 yesterday after a decent carryover for 2 straight days.  If I didn’t have a day job and a family to care for, I’d have been home wagering.  As it is, weekday racing continues to be a source of endless frustration for me from an availability standpoint.  I know, I know – it’s not like Hollywood was running yesterday “while” I was at work, but there just wasn’t time for me to thoroughly review and formalize a solid opinion.  Who are we kidding anyway?  I’d have been knocked out by the 2nd leg and crying in the corner like Chris Crocker after another tabloid attack on Britney Spears.  Yeah, nobody needs that madness.

Can you tell I’m having fun with this here early in the morning?  Man, I’ve really missed my outlet here over the last two weeks for random absurdity and badly framed gratuitous pop-culture references.  Let’s look at the races, shall we?

Race 1:  Md Sp Wt 37k (6 furlongs – turf)

• #5 Gutsy Lady (3/1)
• #8 Always in Style (8/1)
• #1 Linda Lou/ #1A Precious Union (5/2^)

Perhaps I still suffer from “Breeders’ Cup Bomber Syndrome?”  You know, that horrible affliction that makes you think 20/1 longshot bombs are plausible in nearly every race.  Regular readers have likely come to expect a routine of chalk augmented by more chalk here, but screw it.  I feel like bombing for at least one more race.  Seriously though, I’m not interested in the favorites here.  A Flicker of Light at 2/1? No thanks.  Saugatuck River at 5/2?  Please.  I’ll let them beat me at those odds.  I’m interested in first timer Gutsy Lady from Mike Puype with Garrett Gomez in the saddle at 20/1.  Her sire is a pretty darn good debut play (Najran), and when you combine the recent workout tab (namely 5 furlongs in :57 and change on 10/8) – what’s not to like at 20/1? Always in Style has been on the shelf for a year, but this was a stakes runner when we last saw her.  I’ll take that class in a special weight field at 30/1 all day long, even though in all probability she’ll need a race from a conditioning standpoint.  The combo of Linda Lou and Precious Union looks lively here as well.  Both have run well enough to compete with this field.  Beat the chalk in this one is all I’m saying.

Edit: After checking the morning line, my initial plays had borked odds.  My “20/1″ is actually 3/1, and the 1/1A combo is 5/2.  So much for being bold, eh?

Race 2: Clm 16000 (6 1/2 furlongs)

• #2 Superfecta (2/1*)
• #6 You Is What You is (5/2)
• $4 Media Man (5/1)

I was torn between Superfecta and You Is What You Is here for top honors.  Both have sufficiently badass names.  Ultimately I had to go with Superfecta, as he shares nomenclature with one of my favorite TBA bloggers.  How could I pick against that?  On a serious note, Superfecta could get the lead here in this one, and that might be enough to get it done. Hollywood isn’t as biased against speed types as Santa Anita was (in fact, some might say Hollywood favors runners closer to the front).  Superfecta should be on-or-near the lead, so I think he’s a logical play.  You’ll get better odds on You Is What You Is, who is both on the improve and running for the always dangerous Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer barn.  Look, just don’t be silly and leave a Hollendorfer runner off your tickets.  I’m sure we’ve all been there/done that before and learned our lessons, right?  Media Man is the sneak play.  I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he ended up getting in the lead early on andtrying to hold on against this field.  I just have slightly more doubt about his ability than I do with Superfecta, largely because I like the company Superfecta has kept (the horse as well as the TBA blogger), with the likes of Zetterberg, Tribal Mischief, and Carson’s Copper. 

Race 3: OC 80k/C (1 Mile – turf)

• #6 Renegade Ruby (3/1*)
• #7 America’s Friend (9/2)
• #5 Storybook (6/1)

This one’s a tough nut to crack. Honestly there’s probably 5 horses that could win this thing as you could add Gulla Gold and Tutta Bella to the above three. Renegade Ruby just looks more enticing to me based on the works and the switch back to Tyler Baze as jockey.  I also love the recent form.  I know she’ll be there at the end with a solid chance to score.  America’s Friend will be flying late – that much you can count on as well.  Storybook is my upset hope at 6/1, but like I said, don’t sell Tutta Bella and Gula Gold short. This looks like a race to go fairly deep in on the multi-race exotics, even if there’s not a ton of value here.

Race 4: Alw 39000/N1X (6 furlongs)

• #2 Lit’sgoodlookngray (5/2*)
• #7 Onetimeatbandcamp (3/1)
• #8 Partywithlarrz (7/2)

The story of this race on paper is all about former 2007 Kentucky Derby competitor Liquidity.  My thing is this…I never really liked him in 2007 and I don’t like him at all having been off since LAST MAY! No way will I take 9/5 on him.  Just like in race 1, I don’t care, go ahead and beat me at those odds if you can.  The story of this race to me is the long names of the horses in my selections that I won’t type again here so as not to make my “spell check” feature here on WordPress go bonkers.  Suffice to say #2 and #7 look like serious win candidates to me, and I rank #8 just behind them.  Remember, friends don’t let friends bet 9/5 chalk that has been off since a 14thplace finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.  Talk yourself off the ledge.  It ain’t worth it, man!  Think of the children for god’s sake! In all honesty, Liquidity is a Tiznow, and I usually like playing them. I just can’t swallow it here at such short odds.  I respect both O’Niell and M.C. Baze, but I just can’t.  Not today.  Maybe next time.

Edit: Once again, I’m borked on the odds. My copy of the DRF showed Liquidity at 9/5 heavy favoritism - but on closer look he’s 6/1 and my choices are decidedly more chalky.  Guess what that means?  Suddenly I’m a Liquidity fan.

Race 5: Clm 25000 N2L (6 furlongs)

• #7 Suziqcutie (5/1)
• #10 Time Tosay Goodbye (5/1)
• #4 Alex’s Wish (6/1)

Another tough one here.  Unless you’re a pick 6 player willing to go deep, this one looks difficult to get past in a mult-race exotic wager. I landed on the O’Neill runner Suziqcutie here, but I’m not confident about it.  Perhaps I feel guilty for not taking Dougie O with an overwhelming favorite in Race 4?  This game is no place for people with such soft heartedness.  I’ll say this, I’m not backing the favorite here either in $5 Scout About.  Part of me wants to – it IS Hollendorfer/Gomez after all, and what was my comment about Jerry “the king”  a few races back?  Something about “don’t leave him off your ticket?”  Perhaps I should listen to my own advice here? Those last 4 efforts just don’t do anything for me in this spot.  You’re going to have to crack the 70’s from a Beyer standpoint to win this….at least that’s what I’m telling myself.  Maybe I shouldn’t be so harsh.  Afterall, 7/2 isn’t the worst chalk you could eat.  It’s nothing like the 9/5 Liquidity is getting on the morning line.  On second thought, don’t leave him off, but try to get some value elsewhere if you can.

Race 6: OC 62X/N2X (1 1/16 miles)

• #4 Dakota Phone (3/1)
• #1 Informed (5/1)
• #2 Marenostrum (5/2*)

I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that this race could be the key to the entire pick 6 sequence.  Here’s why:  I note that most of the DRF handicappers are banking on Marenostrum for the victory here. He’s a good 7-year-old Royal Academy offspring (more like off-autumn at this age) who won after a substantial layoff lat out during the Santa Anita meet.  Guess who I’m going to use to beat him though?  You guessed it…Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer!  What a surprise, eh?  I’ll play Dakota Phone in the hopes that there’s enough early zip here to set things up nicely for him and Rafael Bejarano as the field heads to the wire.  I’d use O’Niell runner Informed as well.   

As an aside, I have to include Marenostrum in my picks for one totally obscure reason.  I’m a history and strategy lover – particular military history andstrategy.  One of my other past times is playing PC games on the “grand strategy” level.  There’s one in particular called “Hearts of Iron 2: Doomsday” that lets you take any nation on the planet from 1936 all the way through World War 2 and beyond into the “Cold War.”  One of my favorite nations to play as is Fascist Italy, under IL Duce – Benito Mussolini.  Mare Nostrum was a term for the Mediterranean Sea, and there’s a very good read for those who love history, strategy, and wargaming that a gifted author drummed up as an “after action report” having taken Italy all the way through the game from early ‘36 to the end of WW2, which the author titled “Mare Nostrum” – check it out. I highly recommend it. 

Race 7: Md Sp Wt 37K (6 1/2 furlongs)

• #2 Gotta Go Win (3/1)
• #6 Keep Thinking (5/2*)
• #1 Flat Bold (5/1)

It looks like we’ve got a good maiden special weight here in race 7.  It’s a toss up for top honors between Gotta Go Win and Keep Thinking.  Gotta Go Win ran 2nd in his  last effort after breaking from the 10 hole and dueling over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride.  Folks, take note of that.  How many horses dueling for the lead on the Pro-Ride did you see hang on for 2nd place finishes? He was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths, and my gut tells me he’ll like the Hollywood cushion a bit more.  The previous two efforts do concern me though.  Was that last trip at Santa Anita a fluke?  We’ll have to find out.  The elephant in the room is going to be the $2.4 million son of A.P. Indy for trainer Eoin Harty – Keep Thinking.  He ran very well in his debut posting an 82 Beyer over the Belmont main track.  The question will of course be how he takes to the synthetics, but I’ll be honest here – I actually think dirt horses will do better over the Hollywood cushion than we saw over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride.  Just a hunch.  He’s trained decently, though not jaw-droppingly.  If Harty has him ready to go this guy will be a force.  Flat Bold barely made the cut for 3rd selection. based largely on the presence of Bejarano and the fact that trainer Craig Dollasecan have them ready to run early (14% with 1st time starters).

Race 8: Clm 16000 (6 furlongs)

• #6 Colonel Courtney (7/2)
• #7 Hoist the Sail (3/1*)
• #9 Giovanni (4/1)

Before we look at my top two choices here, I have to confess something.  I was not originally looking very seriously at Giovanni until I noticed other handicappers were giving him a serious shot here at 30/1.  That made me take a 2nd look.  The angle is this – he’s a pretty good turf runner, as noted by his several Beyer speed figure ratings on the grass in excess of 80.  He’s also got Bejarano taking the mount, and we are talking about the highly accomplished Doug O’Niell at the controls as trainer, so there is a lot to like at 30/1.  I’m definitely starting to get interested and if this one looks live in the post parade, I may take chance and go bombing.  Colonel Courtney and Hoist the Sail came up as the “Captain Obvious” top 2 selections.  With Courtney you’re getting proven recent form coming off back to back wins, and note that trainer Jack Carava and La Canada Stables thought highly enough of him to claim him right back after that last victory.  That’s usually a good indication.  They were already familiar with this horse and obviously wanted him back.  Hoist the Sail warrants some serious consideration as well as this guy could well find himself on the lead. My only concern with Hoist the Sail is that I’m not sure he’s as good of a synthetic sprinter as he is a router.  We shall see.

Edit:  Oh, what’s that, I thought a 30/1 had a chance – well guess what – my DRF was once again way off base. Try taking that 0 off his odds.  He’s actually 4/1, so I like him a bit less than the top two now.

Race 9: The 4th running of the Real Quiet – $100k (1 1/16 miles)

• #7 Charlie’s Moment (5/2*)
• #6 Escalon (3/1)
• #4 Chocolate Candy (7/2)

Ah, the feature!  And what a “creature feature” it is (hat tip to all those fond of gory monster flicks…it was Halloween just a week ago, after all).  We may be dealing with a small field here, but this is a competitive little field that isn’t separated by much.  First, the obvious:  the only winner of multiple races in the field is Charlie’s Moment, the morning line favorite.  The son of Indian Charlie also holds a Beyer edge on the rest of the field, having broken the 80 threshold 3 times (only 2 other runners have done so, and each only one time).  He’ll break clean from the outside gate, and should get a good trip, so perhaps this race isn’t rocket science.   Trying to gauge the rest of the field is a tad trickier.  I like Escalon a good deal here.  I like that he’s tried tougher company than many of the rest before, having run in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity (albeit finishing 6th), and the Cal Cup Juvenile (finishing 3rd).  One thing to note about this guy is that the only sound beating he’s had was against the likes of Street Hero and Midshipman.  That’s pretty good company right there.  It tells me this guy can win this thing if he moves forward a tad.  Chocolate Candy is for the ubiquitous Jerry Hollendorfer barn and gets the equally ubiquitous Garrett Gomez aboard today.  Couple that with an improving form and I can see this guy hitting the board.  I doubt the can win, but he can certainly hit underneath in the trifecta and exacta wagers. 

Race 10: MD 40000 (6 furlongs)

• #7 Plaza Queen (5/2*)
• #9 Avondelay (9/2)
• #13 Jaylo’s Mark (20/1)

We wind things up with maiden claimers in race 10.  Hopefully it’s been a profitable day and we’re all alive in the Pick 6 and/or Pick 4.  One can dream, right?  Of course, by now I’ll also be hoping that my Crimson Tide have throttled LSU and cemented their status as the best college football team in the land, but enough of that for the moment.  Plaza Queen gets my check mark here.  She’s training well for Christopher Paasch and has been right there against similar company finishing 2nd in each of her last 2 starts.  She’s got a big field to face today, but she’s still capable of moving forward.  Avondelay is a somewhat sneaky play from one of my favorite trainers, the great Kristin Mulhall.  She’ll probably get overlooked due to a less sexy Beyer figure in her debut than some of the others, but she rallied for a 2nd place finish last time out, flashing signs of hidden talent.  This isn’t the saltiest field.  A move forward puts her in the thick of things late.  Jaylo’s Mark is my bomb play.  Why?  I love playing debut offspring of Benchmark (17% with first timers).  Trainer Jeff Mullins isn’t usually thought of as a big debut horse play, but I respect the guy enough to give him a fighting chance here.  There are some workouts that make me think she fits with these types as well.  I’ll roll the dice at 20/1, especially if things have been breaking our way throughout the earlier cards (or I get some beer infused courage – you know how that goes).

Best of luck to everyone and as always be sure to check for late changes and scratches!