- George C. Scott as Gen. George S. Patton
There will obviously be some NFL games this week worth checking out, but I’ve gone from reigning champion in my fantasy league to bottom-of-the-barrel in just one quick season. As George C. Scott reminds all “conquerors” in the film Patton: “…all glory is fleeting.”
With that in mind, I’ve basically turned it in for the year and hung up the cleats. All for the better, I suppose. It’ll just give me more time to focus on horse racing anyway. At least horse racing doesn’t come with that annoying robot animation they ruin every panoramic shot with on Fox. I hate that thing. Maybe it was catchy back in the 90′s, but now it makes me cringe almost as much as the ShamWow guy, or the insufferable toolbox in the blue-green sweater from the FinallyFastdotCom commercial.
Oh well, I digress…as I’m prone to do in the ramblings that purport to be introductions in my posts. Let’s move on to Hollywood where we’ve got 9 races to cover, including the 5th running of the Hermosa Beach Handicap. I know – it’s not quite as exciting as the better known G1 races earlier in the year, but it’s the best we’ve got, and to be honest there’s some things to like about it. It’s a 1 1/2 mile “marathon” turf race! I’ll take that any day over a turf sprint or yet another 6 furlong sprint for bottom level maiden claimers on the cushion.
Race 1: Md Sp Wt 38k (1 1/16 miles)
- #5 Black Magic Mama (8/5*)
- #2 Singita (6/1)
- #5 Vikkilee (2/1)
It looks like we’ve got a favorite with a distinct class advantage in the opening maiden claimer. Black Magic Mama has been banging heads with the top 2-year-old filly in the nation (Stardom Bound) in her last two starts, including an 8th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last out. She won’t find anything quite like Stardom Bound here, and the superiority of her recent Beyer figures over this field suggests she should handle them with relative ease. She looks tough to play against, although she hasn’t exactly caused anyone’s jaw to drop yet along the way. Still, the drop from the top G1 race in the country for her division to this level should help her move forward. Since there’s no value on top, I’ll take a shot with Singita underneath at 6/1. She showed speed last out at Santa Anita, and should find the Hollywood cushion more beneficial with that style. She could be the controlling speed and if so has a chance to hang on here. Vikkilee has shown some pretty good versatility with 2nd place finishes on both dirt and Pro-Ride in her last two, although the dirt effort was at Fairplex. She seems to have a decent, but not overpowering late kick in the stretch. It’s hard to imagine her not hitting the board.
Race 2: Clm 25000 (6 1/2 furlongs)
- #2 Mama Lula (5/2*)
- #3 Short Sentence (6/1)
- #4 Nicole’s Image (7/2)
Usually at this level in the claiming ranks you’d find a bunch of hard knocking horses that take turns beating each other. While that may be the case, I think the pace setup here clearly favors last out winner Mama Lula from a stalk and pounce perspective. She’s in great shape having won 2 of her last 3 while hitting the exacta in each, and appears to have the best finish of the field. Short Sentence is my shot underneath. I’m a bit concerned that this one is in for a $25k tag, but he’s done his best running over the cushion here at Hollywood. He was also on the shelf for 11 months before that last effort and could pick things up a bit. If the race starts to fall apart you never what can happen. Of the speed horses signed on here, I prefer Nicole’s Image. The trouble is she’s likely to be pressed from the outset by Udriga to the extreme outside and perhaps Martita’s Rose from the extreme inside. I think that sets things up for Mama Lula. Martita’s Rose will definitely take some play and deserves to since she did hang on well over the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, something that gave a lot of horses fits. Veils de Fleur is also worth using in the exactas and trifectas as she appears to have room for improvement.
Race 3: Alw 40000 N1X (1 1/16 miles – turf)
- Yankee Bay (3/1)
- Smooth and Savy (7/2)
- Great Siege (5/2*)
I’ll be honest, there’s really 4 horses I like in here out of the 6 in the entire field. You could add Steven’s Being to the above list and I rank ‘em all just about evenly. i’mnot even going to spend much time analyzing this one as there doesn’t seem to be any real value here. I’ll probably just punch all 4 in the Pick 4 and hope to move on.
Race 4: Md Sp Wt 37k (6 1/2 furlongs)
- #1 Star Redeemer/#1A Now and Zen (9/5*)
- #3 Beauteous Maximus (4/1)
- #4 Acclimation (15/1)
I could see the coupled entry of #1 Star Redeemer and #1A Now and Zen running one-two in this race. Star Redeemer is the stronger selection coming out of the Cal Cup Juvenile for trainer John Sadler. He’s also working well as indicated by the bullet work on 10/27 over the Hollywood cushion going 5 furlongs in :58 and change. Now and Zen has some strong human connections getting the services of Rafael Bejarano as jockey for a Mike Mitchell barn that is rolling along on the California circuit. Beauteous Maximus did manage to out finish Now and Zen last time out and has to be part of the exacta/trifecta equation. I’ll take a flierwith Acclimation as the x-factor of this race. He’s a debut son of Unusual Heat that has worked well in the mornings, even if trainer Donald Warren isn’t exactly known for having them ready to pop at first asking (10% with first time starters).
Race 5: Alw 39000 N1X (6 furlongs – turf)
- #1 Mt. Orient (9/5*)
- #5 Pocosin’s Game Boy (5/2)
- #6 Candy Pull (5/1)
In case you hadn’t heard me say it before – I HATE TURF SPRINTS! Seriously, this is where I’m at my absolute weakest. Wouldn’t you know it, I came out rather chalky with the selections. Who woud’ve guessed? Seriously though, Mt. Orient and Pocosin’s Game Boy look like the logical contenders here. With Mount Orient you get the always dangerous Jerry “the king” Holledorfer as trainer and the equally dangerous Garrett Gomez aboard as jockey. Pocosin’s Game Boy is from Doug O’Niell’s outifit and wll get the services of Rafael Bejarano. I won’t call it definitively as a “two horse race” on paper, but it does have the appearance of being close to that. It’s possible one of the Euro shippers could surprise a bit, so if one makes an impression on you in the post parade I’d say go ahead and tee it up. Candy Pull rated just behind the top two in my choices.
Race 6: Md 32000 (6 furlongs)
- #13 Pokermom (4/1)
- #14 Floating on Air (9/2)
- #5 Neuhart (5/1)
I’m somewhat upset I didn’t come up with better value here considering the size of the field (13 total runners). Still, I like these guys to tackle the morning line favorite, #8 Kicking Congo. We’ve got a lot of chalk elsewhere in the selections thus far so it’s time to take a stand and beat someone. Pokermom doesn’t have the sexiest workouts you’d like to see from a debut runner, but it’s hard to argue with the way trainer Adam Kitchingham gets his charges ready (23% first start, 27% debut maiden claimers, 28% with 2-year-olds). This one is by Johannesburg out of a Slew of Gold mare named Got the Votes – which seems fitting so shortly after a major election, doesn’t it? Floating on Air will be breaking from far outside, but has shown some versatility so far in her young career. Enough so that I won’t discount her chances. Neuhart is my sneak play and hopefully we’ll get better than 5/1. The play is based on her trainer form (Jean Pierre Dupuis being respectable with first timers in a limited sample), and the fact that she’s by a win early sire (Momentum).
Race 7: OC 25k/N1X (1 1/16 miles)
- #5 Frankelstein (5/1)
- #4 North Fork (5/2*)
- # 7 Lucky Honey (7/2)
This state-bred optional claimer came up rather chalky for me as well. I do prefer Frankelstein at 5/1 over the favorite North Fork at 5/2. Frankelstein will have a chance at being controlling speed here and may be able to wire this field through conservative early fractions. North Fork will be sitting off him by several lengths and will look to run him down at the top of the stretch. It could well be whoever wins that battle between these two for top honors. I don’t think we can totally discount Lucky Honey though. She has a tendency to rally late and pass rivals. Although her one attempt over the Hollywood cushion track last May was perhaps her flattest effort. One Chin Again, breaking from the extreme outside, also has a very good chance of hitting the board.
Race 8: The Hermosa Beach Handicap – 65k (1 1/2miles – turf)
- #4 Caprice (5/2*)
- #7 Rushen Heat (6/1)
- #2 High Heel Sneakers (3/1)
The Hermosa Beach Handicap looks to me like a good spot for one of my favorite trainers, Graham Motion, to come away with a California victory. Caprice should relish the distance today and having gone back and looked at that effort in the Dowager, I think is the clear selection here. I know it says she was third, beaten 8 lengths, but that effort was very game in my opinion. I expect a mid to high 80′s level Beyer performance today. Go get ‘em Graham! Rushen Heat is my value play underneath here as the controlling speed. You already know it’ll be on the slow side by virtue of the distance, so toss in controlling speed and you’ve got a shot to wire the field and pull the upset. High Heel Sneakers has been pretty good since coming to the U.S., even if victory has thus far eluded her. She certainly won’t find anyone like Wait a While or Vacare here today, as she did last out in the Yellow Ribbon. I’m not counting Opal Haze out of this one either. I’ll be cheering for Graham Motion’s Caprice, but this one could break a couple different ways.
Race 9: Clm 10000 (7 furlongs)
- #10 Axiom (5/1)
- #11 Moonlit Habit (5/2*)
- #14 Common Trust (3/1)
We wind up the weekend with a 7 furlong race for $10k claimers on the main cushion track. I had some trouble figuring this one out from a pace standpoint, partly because I wasn’t quite sure what Common Trust would do breaking from the outside. Will he try to show speed or rate and risk being hung a bit wide on the turn? Regardless, there should be some decent speed here, so I took a shot that Axiom would be rolling late under jockey Joe Talamo. Joe was my guy at Hollywood last year. It feels good anointinghim with a check mark selection. Moonlit Habit looks like he could either be part of the pace or just off it. Either way he’s probably got a big chance to score here. I’d have Common Trust at top selection if it weren’t for that extreme post position. He should break clean, so he’s got that going for him, but ultimately I thought he’d be more likely to be running for place and show here, although a win is certainly not out of the question.
Best of luck to everyone. As always, be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.
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