THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Hopefully everyone had  a wonderful Thanksgiving.  It’s time now to break out the leftovers, do some Christmas shopping (lord knows the economy needs it), and maybe make a little something on the side while you enjoy a solid day of racing at Hollywood Park.  We’ve got two graded stakes on the card this afternoon - the Grade 3 Miesque and the Grade 1 Citation Handicap. Ten races in total to cover, so without further adieu we’ll just jump right in.

Race 1: Clm 40000 (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #4 Zetterberg (2/1*)
• #3 Carson’s Copper (5/2)
• #1 Professnl Courtesy (4/1)

We open with a $40k claimer for three-year-olds going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  Zetterberg is the morning line favorite and meritstop honors from me as well.  He’s dropping in from the $50k level where he ran well finishing 3rd, beaten only by 1 length.  He also seems to enjoy the 6 1/2 furlong distance (4-1-1-1 lifetime).  Carson’s Copper is not only the “horse for the course” play (4-3-0-1 lifetime), but also could be the speed here.  Unless Zuri Mwana goes as well, he could get on the lead comfortably.  He’s had some trouble hanging on before, but note that he defeated Superfecta back on July 31 (we’ll see Superfecta again later on in race 5).  Professnl Courtesy is likely to make my spell check feature here go crazy, but he’s a dangerous customer in this race.  If he shows up with his typical run, he’s clearly capable.  Like Zetterberg, he’s a class dropper from the $50k level.  He may be the best horse in the field, but I ranked him 3rd as I was a bit worried he might leave himself too much to do to prevail here.  I’m on the fence with this guy.  Soda Pop Kid is another worth looking at in the post parade. I have a feeling this gelding son of Lemon Drop Kid is going to move forward again. I just wish there was more value than the 3/1 listed on the morning line.  I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger with that kind of risk/reward scenario.

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 36k (6 Furlongs)

• #1 Star Redeemer (7/2)
• #9 Leavethegateopen (5/2*)
• #5 Korban (8/1)

The 2nd race is for maiden special weights going 6 furlongs over the main track.  Star Redeemer has been close before and on paper should probably handle this field, but if he fails again will start cementing his reputation as a money burner (he’s been favored twice already in 4 starts and could be here as well come post time).  He is training well, plus you’ve got to like the combination of jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer John Sadler.   Speaking of John Sadler, he’s also got the morning line favorite in Leavethegateopen.  This one has been progressing nicely and should definitely be more involved (at least early on) than Star Redeemer.  Another step forward would put this one in the winner’s circle.  Korban is an interesting debut starter sired by Benchmark.  I’m always keen to watch Benchmark’s offspring first time out, and note that trainer Martin Jones is respectable with first time starters (11%).  To be honest, I prefer the workout tab of Crazy Wager among the debut horses, but I sided with Korban for 3rd choice based on trainer form and my affinity for Benchmark’s young.

Race 3: Clm 12500 (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #5 Satellite (3/1)
• #7 Brooker (2/1*)
• #3 Saxophone (7/2)

I came up rather boringly obvious here.   Brooker appears to be the overwhelming favorite on paper, but there is cause for concern here.  For one, he’s dropping through the claiming ranks and also managed to be trounced at the $25k level last out. It’s also troubling to see his workout tab surprisingly barren for a horse that’s been off since late September.  I wouldn’t be too confident with this guy. He’s also a closer in a field somewhat devoid of speed, so I’m going to try and beat him with a more forwardly placed runner - namely, Satellite.  Satellite’s last 3 races all look usable to me, and I like that he’s won at this distance.  Truth be told, I”d prefer better than 3/1, but this is a short field so beggars can’t be choosers.  Seth the Candyman and Saxophone were close for third selection.  Of those two I’d rate Saxophone just a tad higher in terms of recent form as well as the quality of the competition he’s faced.

Race 4: Clm 40000 (1 1/16 Miles)

• #3 Skippy Due (7/2)
• #4 Nima’s Pad (2/1*)
• #6 Headache (4/1)

We’ve got another competitive claimer (despite a short field) in the 4th race.  We’re routing this time over the  main track after a trifecta of sprints earlier on the card.   Skippy Due is a hard knocker from the Art Sherman barn that should get a decent trip today.  To be honest, I have the top 3 runners all ranked equally.  Skippy Due appeared to be in decent form, Nima’s Pad has the Bejarano/Sadler angle going for him, and Headache has defeated Skippy’s Due on two occasions.  Tough race. Hopefully we’re still alive in the Pick 4, as I plan on going at least 3 deep here, despite the lack of value available.

Race 5: Clm 12500 (6 Furlongs)

• #4 Superfecta (5/2*)
• #6 You Is What You Is (3/1)
• #9 Michael’s Notes (4/1)

This one looks like a two horse race to me.  Superfecta is fast becoming one of my favorite claimers in the country. You seldom get the kind of consistency he’s demonstrated in horses at this level (7-4-2-0 for 2008).  What’s not to like?  He’s trained by Ted West, who seems to be a man on a mission lately out in California (56% winning percentage thus far at the Hollywood meet), and he’s dropping in class from the $16k ranks.  You Is What You Is will likely give him all he can handle though.  The 3-year-old son of Old Topper is actually slightly more accomplished at the 6 furlong distance, and now picks up the services of jockey Garrett Gomez.  Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer seems to be squeezing all the talent he can get out of ‘Is. Michael’s Notes is an x-factor to me.  His first few races show much better form, and if he’s able to rekindle some of that magic he clearly belongs here.  Do note how many times he’s been favored though, as he’s also clearly becoming a notorious underlay.  If you want to go a differentdirection underneath the top two, pay attention in the post parade to Norco Pal, Lardog, and Texas Devil.  Any of those could easily wind up hitting the board.

Race 6: The Grade 3 Miesque (1 Mile - Turf)

• #6 Emmy Darling (7/2)
• #8 Habaya (5/2*)
• #2 Internally Flawless (3/1)

We head to the turf for the Miesque, for fillies two-years-old and upward routing 1 mile over the grass.  Emmy Darling is my pick for the Miesque.  She’s been banging heads with Maram and Stardom Bound and will no doubt find the competition easier here.  If she was good enough to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, she’s good enough to compete for the Miesque.  I also like that her two best races thus far were at Hollywood, albeit over the synthetic track.  Habaya will take a lot of play at the windows and rightfully so.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has this daughter of Storm Cat headed in the right direction.  Note that she lost to Laragh in the Jessamine while finishing a respectable 2nd (although it was by over 4 lengths).  She’s had some trouble in each of her races and has reason to move forward if everything goes her way.  Internally Flawless exits a maiden score on the grass at Santa Anita and jumps right into Stakes company.  I like that vote of confidence.  I like that Garrett Gomez stuck aboard as jockey even more.  If you’re looking for a longshot, consider #3 Atka. She’s battle tested, although she’s probably best used underneath on the exotics.

Race 7: Md 32000 (6 Furlongs)

• #10 Miki’s King (10/1)
• #6 Bartok’s Magic (10/1)
• #5 Graceful Dude (10/1)

I’m going to be absolutely honest here, I don’t like this race.  I have almost no opinion whatsoever.  With that in mind, and considering how many chalky picks I’ve been forced into due to smaller field sizes in the earlier races, I’m going for a longshot here.  Miki’s King looks like a horse with decent bloodlines debuting for a barn that does well with first timers (Melody Conlon - 17%). Why not?  None of the horses with experience in this race look daunting to me.  I’ll roll the dice.  Likewise, I’ll make second choice out of Bartok’s Magic.  These Bartok offspring show up from time to time ready to run at first asking.  Trainer Richard Baltas has a $4.95 ROI with 1st timers.   I see no need to change this style of thinking for my third selection - Graceful Dude.  ‘Dude is going out for trainer Peter Eurton, who is also respectable with such runners (15%).  He also picks up the services of M.C. Baze.  I’ll let one of the more seasoned runners beat me here if they can. 

Race 8: The Grade 1 Citation Handicap (1 1/16 Miles - Turf)

• #9 Whatsthescript (5/2*)
• #1 Hyperbaric (3/1)
• #6 Formal Decree (9/2)

The feature race of the afternoon is the Grade 1 Citation Handicap going 1 1/16 miles over the Hollywood turf.  This feature looks as good as advertised as it’s come up extremely tough on paper.  Whatsthescript was a sexy choice for the Breeders’ Cup Mile last month at Santa Anita.  Things didn’t work out that day as he ran into a super filly in Goldikova.  We’ll see if that took a bit out of him or if he’s ready to make amends today.  I’ll guess that it’s the latter as he’s trained well since that defeat.  Hyperbaric is very playable here as well, especially if you can get something better than the current 3/1 odds.  This is a guy coming into today with impeccable form, having won 3 consecutive races.  He’s stepping up in class to face Grade 1 competition, but he’s doing so fresh and like Whatsthescript is doing so after working well in preparation.  Formal Decree is the likely upset specialist here exiting 4 consecutive very strong efforts, each one slightly better than the last.  Another move forward puts him right in the mix here.  Plus, after having watched the Breeders’ Cup, does anyone feel confident leaving out a horse with European bloodlines?   Didn’tthink so.  I really want to see Rebellion run well here for trainer Graham Motion so that he has a holiday to remember, but these are deep, deep waters.  I’ll use him underneath along with Proudinsky on my exotics. 

Race 9: OC 25k/N1X (7 Furlongs)

• #1 Draft Choice/ #1A Swift Demand (2/1*)
• #7 My Summer Slew (8/1)
• #5 Unvarnished (10/1)

The 9th race is a peculiarly difficult optional claimer going the ever-tricky 7 furlong distance over the main track.  I prefer the two horses comprising the coupled entry of Draft Choice and Swift Demand for top honors.  Really I like them both equally.  I’ll give Swift Demand a slight nod for top honors.  Outside of them there are several directions you could make a case for.  My Summer Slew looks usable to me, although I prefer to avoid these Golden Gate shippers.  I like that debut and think that trainer Steven Miyadi may have one that can steal the race here at 8/1.  Unvarnished will have to wake up with the addition of blinkers, a move that trainer Gary Mandella has used with some success (12%) in the past.  I’m not sure what to make of Kalookan Event here.  I debated listing him in the selections as well. If you toss his last race he clearly fits, so don’t totally overlook him (especially if he looks good going to post).

Race 10: MD 25000 (5 1/2 Furlongs)

• #9 President Elect (5/2*)
• #12 Midnight Corredor (5/1)
• #10 Warren’s Yodler (6/1)

I’m not a fan of 5/12 furlong sprints, and I’m even less of a fan of the horses entered in this field.  There’s really not one horse that deserves being made a top selection.  President Elect obviously has some connotations considering where we are in the current national political cycle and trainer Doug O’Neill has him working well.  Okay, I’ll bite and make him top choice.  Midnight Corredor just turned in a bullet work on 11/23 going 4 furlongs in :46 and change, so perhaps he’ll be on his toes and ready to run?  Warren’s Yodler has been a money burner at the windows, but if he ever is going to show a hint of talent, this looks to be the field to do it against.

Best of luck to all, as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.