Out with the old, in with the new

30 12 2008
It’s hard to believe there are just 2 days left (including today) in 2008.   The year, in general, was a mixed bag of results.  On the one hand we got to cheer and celebrate when Curlin won the Dubai World Cup, and then again as Big Brown progressed towards an elusive Triple Crown.  Ultimately though, the year feels like something of a disappointment.  Curlin was overcome in his defense of the Breeders’ Cup Classic title, and Big Brown first failed in the Belmont Stakes and then was removed from racing following an injury leading up to the Classic.

On a personal note the year was a sweeping success.  It was my first full calendar year blogging about the sport, and thanks to all of you it was a  year I’ll never forget.  The high point of the year being the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas.  As of this writing,  I sit here literally days, if not hours, away from another life changing moment, the arrival of my second child.  Knowing my luck, this will either come during the first big stakes of the year this weekend, or during the Sugar Bowl with my beloved Crimson Tide (minus all-world left tackle Andre Smith) against the Utes.

I’m a history lover, so it’s natural for me to dwell on the past to the point of redundancy.  At some point, however, it’s necessary to put one’s head down and move forward, no matter how bitter or sweet (or anything in between) the memories one is leaving behind to posterity may be.  All of this creates a somewhat vexing problem; how to end the calendar year here at The Aspiring Horseplayer?  Do we do the ubiquitous “look back” post?  Do we combine the past with the present, while still gazing towards the future? 

I’ll settle this internal monologue by divulging that  I’ve decided to begin with a clean sweep of the horse watch list.   You may have noticed it disappeared around 4 months ago.  At one point it was a an anchoring page of this site, but alas, no longer.  It just got to be too much to keep it up to date and pertinent.  Instead, I’ve opted for regular postings as we progress through the Triple Crown season and the soon to be unleashed “road to the roses” for the 2009 thoroughbred racing season. 

Part of me feels that what follows is laughable nonsense, with about as much net worth as a pre-season top 25 poll in NCAA football. Still, a larger part of me feels that you’ve got to start somewhere, and while this list might not look much different from others already floating around out there, I’m nonetheless proud to present our initial top 10 rankings as we head into the 2009 season.

It goes without saying that a disclaimer must be made here that this list is by no means exhaustive, nor does it purport to be of any real consequence.  In fact, I’m just as interested in what horses the rest of you are buzzing about out there. These are just 10 horses I have my eye on at the moment that I believe have a fair chance at becoming household names in 2009 if they enter the history books as the next Kentucky Derby winner or, perish the thought, a legendary Triple Crown winner.  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with that last thought though.  

Vineyard Haven
Vineyard Haven

#1 Vineyard Haven:  The talented son of Lido Palace cemented his place atop many 2-year-old watch lists with his impressive victories in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.  The colt’s fortunes took a bit of a twist when he was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables.  While the colt will remain in racing, and the Sheikh’s overall goal remains conquering the Kentucky Derby, Vineyard Haven will apparently prep for the Derby in Dubai as opposed to in the major prep races here in the United States. It remains to be seen how this will play out.  Before parting ways with Vineyard Haven, trainer Bobby Frankel commented that he had Triple Crown potential. 

 

Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned

 #2 Old Fashioned:  He may be flying under the radar of some at the moment.  After all, his resume isn’t as glorified as some of the others on this list, but if you saw his performance in the Remsen then you need no further explanation.  He won that day by over 7 lengths, his second victory around two turns.  He’s got speed, which is always a plus on dirt, and has shown he can carry that speed.  He’s also a bit of a feel good story as he is trained by Larry Jones, an exceptional horsemen who received a lot of unwarranted smear after his filly Eight Belles broke down following the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Jones has hinted at retiring, so Old Fashioned could be the last hurrah for one of the finest trainers of young horses in the game.   

 

Square Eddie wins

Square Eddie

#3 Square Eddie:   For a guy suffering visibly from Curlin withdrawal, perhaps no horse gives me greater hope for the future then Square Eddie, the so-called “baby Curlin.”  Square Eddie finished 2ndin the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Midshipman.  Prior to that he prevailed in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity.  He’s got versatility, having won races in North America and Europe.  Additionally, like Curlin he was sired by Smart Strike, so he ought to handle the dirt at Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont just fine if/when asked (at least in my thoroughly unprofessional opinion).   What can I say?  I’m a total sucker for chestnuts.  Although, I must say that doing a Google image search for pictures of Square Eddie returns some disturbing photos of some sort of Eddie Murphy parade float.  I’m not sure what’s going on there. Suffice to say I’m scarred for life and now have a strange fear of all things Eddie Murphy related…at least synthetic Eddie Murphy material. 

 

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

#4 Nicanor:  Call it a heart play if you must.  This full brother to the great Barbaro may never pan out to be anything like his sibling.  I certainly don’t mean to put any false expectations on the colt.  For me it’s just nice to see that he’s in training andthat he exists at all.  Wouldn’t it be cool though if he wound up inheriting some of Barbaro’s greatness, and took the horse racing world by storm?  With so little already proved, and so much left to prove, there’s no way  I could leave this guy off my list.  Whether he goes on to be a career maiden/bottom rock claimer or a Grade 1 phenom, he’s one of the 3 year-olds I’ll have my sights most focused on.  He’s got his own blog in case you are interested in following along.  All he needs now is his own “entourage” (complete with Turtle and Meadow Soprano, of course) and he’ll have super-star status written all over him.

  

Stardom Bound

Stardom Bound

#5 Stardom Bound:  The top 2-year-old filly in the land as the calendar begins to turn towards her 3-year-old campaign.  As Square Eddie is to Curlin, so (at least in some respects) Stardom Bound is to Zenyatta.  She lived up to that billing by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita in October.  Clearly she’s the top dog out on the California synthetic track circuit.  So what’s she doing on this list of possible Kentucky Derby contenders?  Well, for starters, she simply looks that good.  Additionally, if she holds true to the “baby Zenyatta” form,  she won’t suffer from a switch to true dirt if/when asked.  That will obviously be the biggest question if her campaign ever gets that far.  I think with the success of Eight Belles in last year’s Kentucky Derby (before the tragic ending to the story), we saw that fit fillies can take on and run with the best of the boys.  If our best filly were to get such a chance this year, it would be her.  That alone makes her a contender at this point in the game.  

 

Midshipman

Midshipman

#6 Midshipman:   Another of the top colts purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables in their never ending quest for a Kentucky Derby championship.  I’m just not  as high on this guy at the moment as I am Vineyard Haven.  Vineyard Haven I could clearly see going on to be the top of his division next year.  Midshipman has more of the “flash in the pan” look to me.  That’s not to knock what the colt has accomplished.  He is, after all, the champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita this past October, and such (at least in theory) the top 2-year-old in the nation.  We’ll see.  Don’t forget that apart from Street Sense, being the champion 2-year-old is usually a bad omen for one’s Kentucky Derby prospects (War Pass, anyone?).   Now add in that this guy will be training overseas in Dubai, and that his win in the Juvenile was over synthetics  

 

#7 Haynesfield: Perhaps trainer Steve Asmussen’s top Derby hopeful.  Haynesfield is another established router from the NY circuit that could become  a major player in the upcoming year.  He was out in front the entire race in his victory in the Damon Runyon, for NY breds, on December 7th at Aqueduct.  That race went 1 mile and 70 yards, and he cleared in 1:46.34, earning a 101 Beyer figure. He’s a son of Speightstown, who was a champion sprinter, so there will always be some whispered distance concerns until he consistently proves otherwise.  The great news is we’ll see him this Saturday in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct – which just so happens to be the first major stakes that began Smarty Jones legendary run a few years ago.  Keep an eye on this guy.  

Munnings

Munnings

#8 Munnings:  I think a lot of folks have given up on this guy. If it’s because he floundered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing 10th, so be it.  What I remember is that this guy came into that race with perhaps the best dirt form of any of the contenders, and ran into a race that looked more like a turf stakes over the Santa Anita Pro Ride.  In other words, I’ve learned to forgive Munnings, why can’t you?  Shouldn’t we bury the hatchet and move on?  All joking aside, the colt remains largely unproven going two turns, but was thriving up in New York prior to the Juvenile.   My big question with Munnings is whether he’s already peaked and spent his bolt, or whether he’ll continue to progress and move forward?  For now he’s a tentative member of the list.   

 

#9 Cribnote: Ran into Vineyard Haven in both the Hopeful andthe Champagne.  Was never able to overcome that one, but fought on valiantly (more so in the Hopeful).  This guy could go either way.  If he’s able to move forward he may find himself moving past rivals on the progression scale.  If not, he’ll quickly fade into the type of runner destined for the Aspiring Horseplayer trivia board game many years from now.  Cribnote is a son of Read the Footlights and is trained by Richard Violette Jr.  

Pioneer of the Nile:  The son of Empire Maker (hat tip to Mike) makes the list by virtue of his victory in the CashCall Futurity.  The Bob Baffert trainee prevailed by a nose, but there are already loud whisperings by some that the CashCall was not a particularly tough race.  Still, ‘Pioneer was finishing well and the Empire Maker’s tend to develop with experience, so the sky is still the limit with this colt. 

Others I thought of using:  Silver City, Big Drama, Obligingly, Quality Road, You Luckie Mann, Frolic’s Dream, Notonthesamepage, and Elusive Heat.

Oh yes, and by the way, be sure and check out our nifty new home page over at http://tbablogs.com

 


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Indian Blessing gets another test in the La Brea

27 12 2008

You’d think with 5 victories on the year, including Grade 1 victories in the Test Stakes and Prioress  Stakes, that Indian Blessing would have already wrapped up her 2008 campaign.  The Juvenile Fillies champion from 2007 has already been confirmed as returning for a 4-year-old campaign in 2009, with a possible long distance target of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (against the boys) next October.

Instead, trainer Bob Baffert has her ready to roll Saturday in the feature race at Santa Anita, the final Grade 1 race of the season in the 36th running of the La Brea for $250,000.  The field sets up like this:

  1. Country Star (Robert Frankel/Rafael Bejarano) 5/1
  2. Laureldean Gale (Eoin Harty/Joe Talamo) 20/1
  3. Never Retreat (Seth Benzel/Michael Baze) 20/1
  4. Indian Blessing (Bob Baffert/J.Velazquez) 8/5*
  5. Foxy Danseur (Chris Paasch/M.E. Smith) 15/1
  6. Indyanne (Greg Gilchrist/Russel Baze) 5/1
  7. Ginger Pop (Dan Hendricks/Jose Valdivia Jr) 30/1
  8. Accopela Choir (Vladimir Cerin/Alex Quinonez) 30/1
  9. She’s Cheeky (Peter Eurton/Alex Solis) 15/1
  10. Bsharpsonata (Todd Pletcher/Garrett Gomez) 5/2

Looking at the 7 furlong La Brea on paper, Indyanne breaking from the 6 hole appears to be the speed of the field.  Like Indian Blessing, Indyanne is a 3-year-old daughter of Indian Charlie who has won a pair of Grade 3′s and rattled off an impressive 7-5-2-0 record.  She should get the lead, but can she hold on?  She’s never been 7 furlongs and has never faced the likes of Indian Blessing before.

The post time favorite will no doubt be the former champ, Indian Blessing.  She’s done nothing to tarnish her record in 2008 and actually became a much better horse in my opinion once they shortened the distances she was running at and turned her into a dirt sprinter.  Of course, the La Brea will be run over the infamous Pro Ride at Santa Anita, but rather than being a total mystery we can see clearly that Indian Blessing handled the synthetic surface admirably in finishing 2nd to Ventura in the Breeders’ Cup Filly& Mare Sprint last month. 

Those playing against Indian Blessing will likely be hoping that her synthetic form leaves her vulnerable.  While you could make a case for that, I’ll be banking on the fact that she is facing weaker competition and ought to handle this field just fine.  In fact, we’ll likely have a strong chance for an all-Indian-Charlie offspring exacta between her and Indyanne.  That’s because Indian Blessing should be tucked in just off Indyanne’s hip in the early going and then look to get first jump on her as the field turns for home.

Bsharpsonata will likely be close bye as well attempting to come from just off the pace.  She’s stuck out wide in post position 10, but has shown before that she can class-up with the best of them.  Her last effort over the Hollywood cushion track showed she can handle the synthetics.  Pro Ride is a bit different though, so we’ll see how she takes to it today.  She’s definitely got a chance to hit the board for one of the minor awards.

Country Star ought to be moving well late attempting to close.  I don’t think she can get to the front two in 7 furlongs, and to be honest I”m guessing a bit at what her sprint running style might be, but she should be able to threaten for the bottom of the trifectas and 10 cent superfectas here. 

Two other horses I would toss into the equation are Foxy Danseur(15/1) and Never Retreat (20/1).  Foxy Danseur would appear to have an affinity for the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  Her last 4 starts over the Pro Ride have resulted in two wins and two places.  She’s up against her toughest challenge today, but she certainly has a chance of hitting the board and at fairly good value as well.  Never Retreat has shown solid turf form and broke her maiden sprinting.  These two factors make me think she’ll handle the trip, surface, and distance with a chance to surprise and hit the board at 20/1.

One thing is for certain, you’ll need some value underneath because the top two finishers look a little chalky if going based on these predictions alone.  I’ll take Indian Blessing on top for the win, with Indyanne and Bsharpsonata in place.  For show I’ll add in Country Star, Never Retreat, and Foxy Danseur.  Rounding out my superfecta I’ll add in Laureldean Gale and Ginger Pop.

4/6,10/1,3,5,6,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,10 ($4.00)

Also of note is the fact that a $171,000 Pick 6 carryover exists at Santa Anita following a difficult to handicap opening day that saw Bob Black Jack defeat the likes of Colonel John and Georgie Boy in the Malibu Stakes.  That means there ought to be some serious money flying around in the Pick 6 pool today.  If you can afford to jump in , you may want to take a stab.  The Pick 6 ticket I’ve been considering playing today would look something like this:

6,7/3/6,8/3,6,7,8/4/2,3,6 =$96

Two other stakes races highlight the card.  The Eddie Logan looks particularly tough to handicap in Race 7.  I thought Oil Man, Congor Bay, Flashman Papers, and Kelly Leak all had a shot here.  In the California Breeders’ Champion I’m all about Saucey Evening.  It’s time for Graham Motion to get a big score out west.  This could be the one to do it, provided she can catch Ten Churros and hold off Chalula One (who would appear to be the biggest competition).

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and/or changes.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping you had a very merry Christams.


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Categories : Country Star, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Santa Anita

Vacare goes out in style with win in the Dhalia

22 12 2008

Vacare, a 5-year-old daughter of Lear Fan, put the finishing touch on her stellar career by winning her 8th race in 14 lifetime tries Sunday in the Grade 2 Dahlia Handicap at Hollywood Park.  The win marked her final trip to the race track as it was announced after the race that she would be retired and not brought back for a 6-year-old campaign.

Vacare was sent off as the post time favorite and saved ground through much of the trip while In My Glory got out to a quick start from the 11 hole.  Gotta Have Her was also tracking In My Glory nicely in the early going.  As the field turned for home it looked for a moment like Vacare might need racing room, but jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. found a spot just to the outside and then sent her for her final drive to the wire. 

Once she dug in and made her bid for the wire, her class took over and she was clearly the best of the field.  The win improves her lifetime earnings to $1,213,706 for her career.  The win was also trainer Christophe Clement’s 1000th of his career.  Gotta Have Her and In My Glory finished 2nd and 3rd behind her. 

In an ironic twist of fate, the trainer of the horse the race was named for, Dahlia, passed away yesterday as well.  Maurice Zilber, age 88, passed away from complications with cancer on Sunday.

With the running of the Dahlia, the curtain has closed on Hollywood Park’s winter fall/winter meet.  How many times that curtain will rise again is anyone’s guess.  Like every track across the country, handle and attendance were down – most likely as signs of a struggling economy continue to show themselves in every aspect of life.  Hollywood itself is on a tenuous plan to be demolished and turned into a real estate development project.  As of right now there is another meet scheduled that begins in April of 2009.  Beyond 2009 still remains a big mystery for many.


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Categories : Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News

Dahlia could be a shocker

21 12 2008

Anyone who witnessed the exciting finish to the CashCall Futurity yesterday at Hollywood is no doubt pumped about having another big stakes race to view this afternoon in the 26th running of the Grade 2 Dahlia Handicap.  The field turned up rather interesting, with some big name horses leading the way and a competitive group of challengers looking to take them on.  From the rail out they set up like this:

  1. Vacare (Jose Valdivia/Christopher Clement) 5/2*
  2. Green Lyons (Joel Rosario/Neil Drysdale) 10/1
  3. I Can See (Aaron Gryder/Steve Knapp) 20/1
  4. Bella Allure (Corey Nakatani/Rupert Pritchard-Gordon) 5/1
  5. Place de L’Etoile – SCRATCHED
  6. Gotta Have Her (Richard Migliore/Jenine Sahadi) 8/1
  7. Sensational Love (M.C. Baze/Neil Drysdale) 20/1
  8. Valbenny (Alex Solid/Robert Frankel) 7/2
  9. Lady Digby (Garrett Gomez/Graham Motion) 9/2
  10. Don’t Forget Faith (Alonso Quinones/Clive Cox) 30/1
  11. In My Glory (Martin Garcia/Efrain Miranda) 15/1
  12. Storybook (Michael E. Smith/John Sadler) 15/1

Vacare is the post time favorite and looms the one to try and beat.  I’m not so certain it can be done, but she’ll be tested a bit today.  Vacare sports an impressive 3 for 4 lifetime record at the 1 1/16 mile distance and is cutting back today from two straight efforts at 1 1/4 miles. I think it’s clear she prefers anything in the one mile to 1 1/8 mile range.  Perhaps 1 1/4 was just a tad far for her.  She’s also exiting a 100 Beyer performance and is the clear class of the field with her cool $1.1 million in earnings.  As long as she’s ready to run today she should be very tough to take down.

Lady Digby comes in off a disappointing effort in the Cardinal at Churchill over wet conditions on 11/15.  Toss that effort and she clearly belongs with this group.  In fact, she’s even won an alternative version of a “Dahlia” at Laurel on 4/12. I like how she’s “classed up” against the likes of Forever Together, Dynaforce, Roshani, and Dreaming of Anna.  The only horse I see her having a hard time getting past is Vacare in the stretch, provided they are both on their A-game.

An interesting horse that may be overlooked by bettors is Bella Allure.  For one thing, she’s a 3-year-old European filly (and a chestnut to boot!), and if we’ve learned one thing this year it’s that you must respect them.   Look deeper though and peer through that running line of hers.  Any names jump out at you?  How about Zarkava and Goldikova?  True, she was beaten soundly by both, but she’ll not face the likes of those two today.  She doesn’t rate as my top choice on paper, but I respect the Euro-fillies enough to use her underneath in all positions on the exotics for the Dahlia.  Also, if she happens to make a good post parade impression, she could be a smart play.  We’ll see. If there’s going to be a “shocker”, as my title implies, why not this horse?  Don’t Forget Faith also faced the mighty Zarkava and finished 5th, but of these two I prefer Bella Allure.

In My Glory should be a part of whatever is going on up front early on in the race, although the outside post position will be somewhat compromising.  I’ll give her a chance to hang on for show.  I’m not really a big Valbenny guy, but I guess you’ve got to use her in this field.  Two other horses I think warrant trifecta/superfecta attention are I Can See and Gotta Have Her, piloted by veteran jockeys Aaron “the rider” Gryder and Richard “the migs” Migliore, respectively.

I’ll play Vacare on top for the Captain Obvious win.  I love the taste of chalk in the morning…tastes like…VICTORY!  :)

$1 Tri:  1/4,9/3,4,6,8,9,11 ($10)

Best of luck to all – be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.  And as many of you are picking up on wonderfully, be sure to check out the post parade on TVG!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News

Pioneer of the Nile wins a thriller in the CashCall Futurity

20 12 2008

Pioneer of the Nile, a promising 2-year-old son of Empire Maker, held off a game challenge from I Want Revenge in a thrilling stretch duel to win the 2008 CashCall Futurity Stakes at Hollywood Park. 

Sent off as the post time favorite, Pioneer of the Nile tracked quick early fractions set by Frumious and Ventana to strike the front in the stretch.  I Want Revenge weaved through horses to come on strong in the stretch, drawing eyeball to eyeball with Pioneer of the Nile as they raced to the wire.  In the end, Pioneer of the Nile was able to turn away I Want Revenge by the slimmest of margins, prevailing by a head.

The win was so close that trainer Bob Baffert seemed uncertain at first on the TVG feed.  When it became official, the win marked a return to the winner’s circle with owner Ahmed Zayat, who had previously removed his horses from Baffert’s care in February. 

Baffert has now trained 4 CashCall winners, with Pioneer of the Nile joining previous winners Point Given (2000), Captain Steve (1998), and Real Quiet (1997).  Only time will tell if  Pioneer of the Nile joins the ranks of early Derby contenders being whispered on the lips of horseplayers across the nation.  It’s always going to be tough to decipher how a strong performance on synthetics will translate onto dirt (and for this I suggest everyone pick up a copy of Bill Finley’s wonderful “Betting Synthetic Surfaces“).

One thing is certain, at least for the California circuit, it would seem to be wise to pay attention to where the top 3 finishers of this race return; Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, and Chocolate Candy – as they were all moving well late and had the look of future winners about them.

If you got a chance to see it, that was exactly the kind of race that horse racing fans love.  It had everything. Quick early start, a gutty stretch battle between to fierce competitors…there’s really nothing else we could ask for. 

Here’s to a wonderful ride by Garrett Gomez on Pioneer of the Nile and an equally gutsy performance by I Want Revenge and jockey Joe Talamo.


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Categories : Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News

Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile look useful in the CashCall

20 12 2008

Once again I managed to do my best Hall and Oates impression yesterday, coming “so close, yet so far away” with my pick 4 selections.  As extemporaneous pointed out, it was the darn maiden claimers in the first leg that killed me at Hollywood yesterday, otherwise we had everything pretty much spot on.  Curses!!!!

Jumping back into the saddle today, let’s look at the feature from Hollywood this afternoon;  the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. The CashCall is obviously the headliner of the day, and will set things up nicely for another big race on Sunday with the running of the Grade 2 Dahlia.

Looking at the CashCall, probably the most well known name in the field is that of Azul Leon.  The son of Lion Heart became one of the more talked about 2-year-olds by winning the Hollywood Juvenile earlier this summer.  Since then though he’s struggled a bit. I didn’t think he classed up well with the better runners of his division in the Norfolk or the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He won’t face any of the absolute best, but I’m still going to play against him as I think his name recognition will result in an underlay at the betting windows.  He’s also something of an unproven commodity going two turns, so I’ll pass here and let him beat me if he can. 

Of course, passing on Azul Leon is the easy part…the hard part is figuring out who of the other runners might be around at the wire when the smoke clears.  I’ll say this, I think on paper we should get enough pace in this race to setup for someone coming from off the pace.  I  Want Revenge, Frumious, and Mr. Rod all look like runners who may try for the lead early on. That being said, I don’t think it will set up for a furious (not to be confused with “frumious”) early pace.  That leads me to look at the mid-pack/stalking types for the eventual winner. 

Azul Leon could definitely do it, as could any of the closers, but ultimately I think this one comes down to Chocolate Candy.  If he gets the trip he’s capable of, he should be able to get first jump on the pace setters and have a big shot at getting to the wire first.

I’d love to pick either Bittel Road or Mr. Rod in this field, but it’s tough not to downgrade them a bit due to their outside post positions and the potential pace presser other runners in here will apply.  All things being equal though, I do think either of these horses are capable of defeating this field.

Another runner to keep your eye on is Pioneer of the Nile, who ought to be moving well late.  In fact, I’d make Pioneer of the Nile my second choice here and would definitely advise covering this number if you are playing the pick 4  and/or pick 6 today. 

My straight up top picks would be Chocolate Candy/Pioneer of the Nile/Azul Leon/Bittel Road.  I highly doubt they finish in that order, but for what it’s worth, there it is.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park

Friday Selections

19 12 2008

We’re almost to the holidays, and if you’re like me you are probably hurting a little bit in the wallet after crossing off all the items on the various Christmas lists you’ve been given.  We’ve got an unexpected day off today as we prepare for doctors visits surrounding the impending birth of our 2nd child, and I figured I’d go pick 4 chasing today hoping for some early holiday cheer.  I’ve got a late pick 4 at Hollywood for this afternoon and a pick 4 for Laurel earlier in the day that hinges on a single in the first leg.

Laurel Pick 4 (races 6-9):

4/1,4,5,6/8,9/1,2,6 ($24)

My Laurel pick 4 starts out with a “Captain Obvious” single in race 6 on #4 Italiano, who appears to be the lone speed of the field.  If he can kick clear of the rest of the group in the early going and settle down comfortably, he should be able to hang on.  Two dangers present themselves however.  Firstly, I”m sure the other jockeys see this and you never know who may decide to rain on your parade, and the fact that the 6th race is at the tricky 7 furlong distance.  The horses I’ll be fearing here as early ticket busters are New York Style, pressing the pace from down on the rail, and Kijabe, who looks dangerous here from a Beyer figure standpoint alone.

In the 7th race I counted numerous horses that could get the job done, so I spread deep andwent with my top four selections.  Pure Granit comes off 4 solid efforts for this level and sports a victory at the 7 furlong distance.  Monarch’s Mystery is a 3-year-old son of Monarchos shipping in from Philadelphia Park who looked somewhat dangerous to me as well.   He hasn’t matched up well with older horses yet in his career, but I think you’ve got to respect the shippers in this one.   That holds true for Out Kissin as well.  He’ll make his first appearance at Laurel in 13 lifetime races and has been working decently.   Indran is another who looks competitive here.  The only one I liked that I didn’t include on my ticket was the outside horse, Lord Willing, for famed trainer King Leatherbury.  Hopefully that won’t be a fatal mistake.

The 8th race to me was all about the two outside horses, Masala T andVirginia Minstrel.   Virginia Minstrel took a while to clear the Maiden Special Weight ranks, but has always shown a hint of talent.  He’s probably a better turf runner overall, but trainer Hamilton Smith has hit at 20% going from turf to dirt, so clearly he knows what he’s doing.  Add to that jockey Anna Napravnik staying on board (it’s great to see her back in action) and what’s not to like?   Masala T, like Virginia Minstrel, should be able to rally from off the pace in this one.  He’s coming off a sharp win and would appear to be in fine form based on 3 of his last 4 efforts.   I did like Max’s Bid and Pattysbuddy in here as well, but was concerned about what might happen up front early on with them, Jamaican Express, and Malibu Moon Coma.

We wind up the day at Laurel in race 9 with $10k maiden claimers going 1 mile over the main track.  I kept this one simple.  The two inside runners, Bungalow Babe and Shocking Development, look like the best fits to me.  both should be in good position right from the start and are cutting back slightly in distance from there last efforts.  With 3 races each under their belts, they ought to be able to put it all together against this field.  Since these are maidens, and anything that can happen will happen, I also tossed in Sky Clipper who is dropping in class for trainer Hamilton Smith.  As an interesting aside, a lady I work with is affiliated with #7 Here Comes Mikey - who I note is adding blinkers today.  I’ll probably have a side bet on him just for fun.

 

Hollywood Park Late Pick 4 (races 5 – 8):

2,3,6,7/4,6,8/2,6/3,11 ($48)

I’ve got no singles in my Hollywood Late Pick 4.  There just wasn’t anyone I felt that comfortable with.  The theme of this ticket is survival, andhopefully going 4 deep in the first leg gives me a chance to be around late when it counts.  In the opening turf sprint, I thought you had to respect Linda Lou, Lemon Punch, Waveline, and Schill.  Actually, this is a race you could conceivably hit “all.”  Schill is my top pick for trainer Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer.  Five solid efforts in a row merit that kind of respect.  Waveline I thought was very dangerous here and might get overlooked at the windows, although the presence of Bejarano all but kills any chance of that.   Linda Lou could be any type of horse.  She’s obviously moving up in class from the special weight ranks, but she’s got a chance in here.  Lemon Punch is the one I’m least expecting a big performance on.  If we  were going a longer distance I’d like her more, but I’m not sure 6 furlong sprints are her cup of tea, even though she does have a victory at this distance. 

In the 6th race we get maiden claimers sprinting over the main track.  Smokey Beau is my top choice here.  He’s dropping from the $80k level and has obviously faced tougher.  He just looks like a formidable force on paper against maiden claimers, although you do have to worry whenever a $115k purchase is being offered for $32k in just their 4th career race.  Ultimately I think that’ s just because he doesn’t have the talent to live up to his purchase price, but he’s probably got enough to beat these.  Convenient Memory is an interesting 2nd time starter for trainer Doug O’Niell.  The obvious attraction being at least partly to do with jockey Rafael Bejarano getting the call.  I also tossed in Cesium Fountain here and thought we may catch a price on this one.  Jeff Mullins runners in their 2nd time out are usually ready to improve on their debut efforts, and this one flashed speed as well – which means he’s likely to be a part of whatever is going on early in this race.  Can he hang on?  Who knows, but I respected his chances enough to include him.

The 7th race was a two horse race to me between Miss Singhsix and Carmel Coffee.  ’Coffee you might recall from Zenyatta’s debut win last November.  She’s really never run a bad race in her career and could be head and shoulders above this field by the time they hit the wire.  Miss Singhsix is a tough, consistent runner that I thought would be the beneficiary if somehow Carmel Coffee wasn’t the horse I thought she was. 

Winding up in the 8th at Hollywood, we’ve got maiden claimers agian going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Thor’s Bullet looks like the standout here.  He posted a 72 Beyer last out and could show early speed as well, which in a short sprint is definitely a plus.  Apart from him, I’ll go for a price at 8/1 with Incandescenza.  The son of Elusive Quality looks primed to me, even though trainer Steve Knapp doesn’t usually have them ready to roll in their debut efforts.  I’m also encouraged that jockey Johnathan Roasario is aboard in the irons.  This isn’t the toughest field – if he’s got talent he should be able to threaten here.

Best of luck to each of you – as always be sure to check for late scratches/changes.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, Laurel Park

Peppers Pride wins 19th straight race!

15 12 2008

 

Peppers Pride likely put the finishing touches on an historic career with her 19th consecutive victory Sunday in the New Mexico Racing Commission Handicap at Sunland Park.  Entering the race owner Joe Allen was on record as indicating he was fairly certain this would be the 5 year-old’s final race of her career.  Her 5 3/4 length victory helped pushed her lifetime earnings to $1,066,085.

While she may not be an international figure like Zenyatta or Curlin, Peppers Pride has clearly become one of the most sensational thoroughbreds in North America.  Her string of 19 consecutive races, while all in New Mexico, have included 13 victories in stakes events.  She set the North American record for consecutive victories when she won her 17th in October at Zia Park.

Many thought she would be up against it and beatable in the New Mexico Racing Commission Handicap, but she proved yet again that she was a special competitor and refused to be defeated. 

Trained by Joel Marr and ridden by jockey Carlos Madeira, she’s the type of horse the sport has to do a better job of hyping to not only it’s own hardcore fans, but to the general public at large.  She may not be a Kentucky Derby winner, or a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, but her consistency puts her in a level all her own.

Hats off to the connections of Peppers Pride!  What a sensational run it’s been for them.


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Categories : Horse Racing News

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