THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

You’d think with 5 victories on the year, including Grade 1 victories in the Test Stakes and Prioress  Stakes, that Indian Blessing would have already wrapped up her 2008 campaign.  The Juvenile Fillies champion from 2007 has already been confirmed as returning for a 4-year-old campaign in 2009, with a possible long distance target of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (against the boys) next October.

Instead, trainer Bob Baffert has her ready to roll Saturday in the feature race at Santa Anita, the final Grade 1 race of the season in the 36th running of the La Brea for $250,000.  The field sets up like this:

1. Country Star (Robert Frankel/Rafael Bejarano) 5/1
2. Laureldean Gale (Eoin Harty/Joe Talamo) 20/1
3. Never Retreat (Seth Benzel/Michael Baze) 20/1
4. Indian Blessing (Bob Baffert/J.Velazquez) 8/5*
5. Foxy Danseur (Chris Paasch/M.E. Smith) 15/1
6. Indyanne (Greg Gilchrist/Russel Baze) 5/1
7. Ginger Pop (Dan Hendricks/Jose Valdivia Jr) 30/1
8. Accopela Choir (Vladimir Cerin/Alex Quinonez) 30/1
9. She’s Cheeky (Peter Eurton/Alex Solis) 15/1
10. Bsharpsonata (Todd Pletcher/Garrett Gomez) 5/2

Looking at the 7 furlong La Brea on paper, Indyanne breaking from the 6 hole appears to be the speed of the field.  Like Indian Blessing, Indyanne is a 3-year-old daughter of Indian Charlie who has won a pair of Grade 3′s and rattled off an impressive 7-5-2-0 record.  She should get the lead, but can she hold on?  She’s never been 7 furlongs and has never faced the likes of Indian Blessing before.

The post time favorite will no doubt be the former champ, Indian Blessing.  She’s done nothing to tarnish her record in 2008 and actually became a much better horse in my opinion once they shortened the distances she was running at and turned her into a dirt sprinter.  Of course, the La Brea will be run over the infamous Pro Ride at Santa Anita, but rather than being a total mystery we can see clearly that Indian Blessing handled the synthetic surface admirably in finishing 2nd to Ventura in the Breeders’ Cup Filly& Mare Sprint last month. 

Those playing against Indian Blessing will likely be hoping that her synthetic form leaves her vulnerable.  While you could make a case for that, I’ll be banking on the fact that she is facing weaker competition and ought to handle this field just fine.  In fact, we’ll likely have a strong chance for an all-Indian-Charlie offspring exacta between her and Indyanne.  That’s because Indian Blessing should be tucked in just off Indyanne’s hip in the early going and then look to get first jump on her as the field turns for home.

Bsharpsonata will likely be close bye as well attempting to come from just off the pace.  She’s stuck out wide in post position 10, but has shown before that she can class-up with the best of them.  Her last effort over the Hollywood cushion track showed she can handle the synthetics.  Pro Ride is a bit different though, so we’ll see how she takes to it today.  She’s definitely got a chance to hit the board for one of the minor awards.

Country Star ought to be moving well late attempting to close.  I don’t think she can get to the front two in 7 furlongs, and to be honest I”m guessing a bit at what her sprint running style might be, but she should be able to threaten for the bottom of the trifectas and 10 cent superfectas here. 

Two other horses I would toss into the equation are Foxy Danseur(15/1) and Never Retreat (20/1).  Foxy Danseur would appear to have an affinity for the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  Her last 4 starts over the Pro Ride have resulted in two wins and two places.  She’s up against her toughest challenge today, but she certainly has a chance of hitting the board and at fairly good value as well.  Never Retreat has shown solid turf form and broke her maiden sprinting.  These two factors make me think she’ll handle the trip, surface, and distance with a chance to surprise and hit the board at 20/1.

One thing is for certain, you’ll need some value underneath because the top two finishers look a little chalky if going based on these predictions alone.  I’ll take Indian Blessing on top for the win, with Indyanne and Bsharpsonata in place.  For show I’ll add in Country Star, Never Retreat, and Foxy Danseur.  Rounding out my superfecta I’ll add in Laureldean Gale and Ginger Pop.

4/6,10/1,3,5,6,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,10 ($4.00)

Also of note is the fact that a $171,000 Pick 6 carryover exists at Santa Anita following a difficult to handicap opening day that saw Bob Black Jack defeat the likes of Colonel John and Georgie Boy in the Malibu Stakes.  That means there ought to be some serious money flying around in the Pick 6 pool today.  If you can afford to jump in , you may want to take a stab.  The Pick 6 ticket I’ve been considering playing today would look something like this:

6,7/3/6,8/3,6,7,8/4/2,3,6 =$96

Two other stakes races highlight the card.  The Eddie Logan looks particularly tough to handicap in Race 7.  I thought Oil Man, Congor Bay, Flashman Papers, and Kelly Leak all had a shot here.  In the California Breeders’ Champion I’m all about Saucey Evening.  It’s time for Graham Motion to get a big score out west.  This could be the one to do it, provided she can catch Ten Churros and hold off Chalula One (who would appear to be the biggest competition).

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and/or changes.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping you had a very merry Christams.