THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

On a personal note the year was a sweeping success.  It was my first full calendar year blogging about the sport, and thanks to all of you it was a  year I’ll never forget.  The high point of the year being the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas.  As of this writing,  I sit here literally days, if not hours, away from another life changing moment, the arrival of my second child.  Knowing my luck, this will either come during the first big stakes of the year this weekend, or during the Sugar Bowl with my beloved Crimson Tide (minus all-world left tackle Andre Smith) against the Utes.

I’m a history lover, so it’s natural for me to dwell on the past to the point of redundancy.  At some point, however, it’s necessary to put one’s head down and move forward, no matter how bitter or sweet (or anything in between) the memories one is leaving behind to posterity may be.  All of this creates a somewhat vexing problem; how to end the calendar year here at The Aspiring Horseplayer?  Do we do the ubiquitous “look back” post?  Do we combine the past with the present, while still gazing towards the future? 

I’ll settle this internal monologue by divulging that  I’ve decided to begin with a clean sweep of the horse watch list.   You may have noticed it disappeared around 4 months ago.  At one point it was a an anchoring page of this site, but alas, no longer.  It just got to be too much to keep it up to date and pertinent.  Instead, I’ve opted for regular postings as we progress through the Triple Crown season and the soon to be unleashed “road to the roses” for the 2009 thoroughbred racing season. 

Part of me feels that what follows is laughable nonsense, with about as much net worth as a pre-season top 25 poll in NCAA football. Still, a larger part of me feels that you’ve got to start somewhere, and while this list might not look much different from others already floating around out there, I’m nonetheless proud to present our initial top 10 rankings as we head into the 2009 season.

It goes without saying that a disclaimer must be made here that this list is by no means exhaustive, nor does it purport to be of any real consequence.  In fact, I’m just as interested in what horses the rest of you are buzzing about out there. These are just 10 horses I have my eye on at the moment that I believe have a fair chance at becoming household names in 2009 if they enter the history books as the next Kentucky Derby winner or, perish the thought, a legendary Triple Crown winner.  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with that last thought though.  

Vineyard Haven

#1 Vineyard Haven:  The talented son of Lido Palace cemented his place atop many 2-year-old watch lists with his impressive victories in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.  The colt’s fortunes took a bit of a twist when he was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables.  While the colt will remain in racing, and the Sheikh’s overall goal remains conquering the Kentucky Derby, Vineyard Haven will apparently prep for the Derby in Dubai as opposed to in the major prep races here in the United States. It remains to be seen how this will play out.  Before parting ways with Vineyard Haven, trainer Bobby Frankel commented that he had Triple Crown potential. 

Old Fashioned

 #2 Old Fashioned:  He may be flying under the radar of some at the moment.  After all, his resume isn’t as glorified as some of the others on this list, but if you saw his performance in the Remsen then you need no further explanation.  He won that day by over 7 lengths, his second victory around two turns.  He’s got speed, which is always a plus on dirt, and has shown he can carry that speed.  He’s also a bit of a feel good story as he is trained by Larry Jones, an exceptional horsemen who received a lot of unwarranted smear after his filly Eight Belles broke down following the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Jones has hinted at retiring, so Old Fashioned could be the last hurrah for one of the finest trainers of young horses in the game.   

Square Eddie

#3 Square Eddie:   For a guy suffering visibly from Curlin withdrawal, perhaps no horse gives me greater hope for the future then Square Eddie, the so-called “baby Curlin.”  Square Eddie finished 2ndin the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Midshipman.  Prior to that he prevailed in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity.  He’s got versatility, having won races in North America and Europe.  Additionally, like Curlin he was sired by Smart Strike, so he ought to handle the dirt at Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont just fine if/when asked (at least in my thoroughly unprofessional opinion).   What can I say?  I’m a total sucker for chestnuts.  Although, I must say that doing a Google image search for pictures of Square Eddie returns some disturbing photos of some sort of Eddie Murphy parade float.  I’m not sure what’s going on there. Suffice to say I’m scarred for life and now have a strange fear of all things Eddie Murphy related…at least synthetic Eddie Murphy material. 

Nicanor; Barbaro's little brother

#4 Nicanor:  Call it a heart play if you must.  This full brother to the great Barbaro may never pan out to be anything like his sibling.  I certainly don’t mean to put any false expectations on the colt.  For me it’s just nice to see that he’s in training andthat he exists at all.  Wouldn’t it be cool though if he wound up inheriting some of Barbaro’s greatness, and took the horse racing world by storm?  With so little already proved, and so much left to prove, there’s no way  I could leave this guy off my list.  Whether he goes on to be a career maiden/bottom rock claimer or a Grade 1 phenom, he’s one of the 3 year-olds I’ll have my sights most focused on.  He’s got his own blog in case you are interested in following along.  All he needs now is his own “entourage” (complete with Turtle and Meadow Soprano, of course) and he’ll have super-star status written all over him.

Stardom Bound

#5 Stardom Bound:  The top 2-year-old filly in the land as the calendar begins to turn towards her 3-year-old campaign.  As Square Eddie is to Curlin, so (at least in some respects) Stardom Bound is to Zenyatta.  She lived up to that billing by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita in October.  Clearly she’s the top dog out on the California synthetic track circuit.  So what’s she doing on this list of possible Kentucky Derby contenders?  Well, for starters, she simply looks that good.  Additionally, if she holds true to the “baby Zenyatta” form,  she won’t suffer from a switch to true dirt if/when asked.  That will obviously be the biggest question if her campaign ever gets that far.  I think with the success of Eight Belles in last year’s Kentucky Derby (before the tragic ending to the story), we saw that fit fillies can take on and run with the best of the boys.  If our best filly were to get such a chance this year, it would be her.  That alone makes her a contender at this point in the game.  

Midshipman

#6 Midshipman:   Another of the top colts purchased by Sheikh Mohammed for Godolphin Stables in their never ending quest for a Kentucky Derby championship.  I’m just not  as high on this guy at the moment as I am Vineyard Haven.  Vineyard Haven I could clearly see going on to be the top of his division next year.  Midshipman has more of the “flash in the pan” look to me.  That’s not to knock what the colt has accomplished.  He is, after all, the champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita this past October, and such (at least in theory) the top 2-year-old in the nation.  We’ll see.  Don’t forget that apart from Street Sense, being the champion 2-year-old is usually a bad omen for one’s Kentucky Derby prospects (War Pass, anyone?).   Now add in that this guy will be training overseas in Dubai, and that his win in the Juvenile was over synthetics  

#7 Haynesfield: Perhaps trainer Steve Asmussen’s top Derby hopeful.  Haynesfield is another established router from the NY circuit that could become  a major player in the upcoming year.  He was out in front the entire race in his victory in the Damon Runyon, for NY breds, on December 7th at Aqueduct.  That race went 1 mile and 70 yards, and he cleared in 1:46.34, earning a 101 Beyer figure. He’s a son of Speightstown, who was a champion sprinter, so there will always be some whispered distance concerns until he consistently proves otherwise.  The great news is we’ll see him this Saturday in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct – which just so happens to be the first major stakes that began Smarty Jones legendary run a few years ago.  Keep an eye on this guy.  

Munnings

#8 Munnings:  I think a lot of folks have given up on this guy. If it’s because he floundered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing 10th, so be it.  What I remember is that this guy came into that race with perhaps the best dirt form of any of the contenders, and ran into a race that looked more like a turf stakes over the Santa Anita Pro Ride.  In other words, I’ve learned to forgive Munnings, why can’t you?  Shouldn’t we bury the hatchet and move on?  All joking aside, the colt remains largely unproven going two turns, but was thriving up in New York prior to the Juvenile.   My big question with Munnings is whether he’s already peaked and spent his bolt, or whether he’ll continue to progress and move forward?  For now he’s a tentative member of the list.   

#9 Cribnote: Ran into Vineyard Haven in both the Hopeful andthe Champagne.  Was never able to overcome that one, but fought on valiantly (more so in the Hopeful).  This guy could go either way.  If he’s able to move forward he may find himself moving past rivals on the progression scale.  If not, he’ll quickly fade into the type of runner destined for the Aspiring Horseplayer trivia board game many years from now.  Cribnote is a son of Read the Footlights and is trained by Richard Violette Jr.  

Pioneer of the Nile:  The son of Empire Maker (hat tip to Mike) makes the list by virtue of his victory in the CashCall Futurity.  The Bob Baffert trainee prevailed by a nose, but there are already loud whisperings by some that the CashCall was not a particularly tough race.  Still, ‘Pioneer was finishing well and the Empire Maker’s tend to develop with experience, so the sky is still the limit with this colt. 

Others I thought of using:  Silver City, Big Drama, Obligingly, Quality Road, You Luckie Mann, Frolic’s Dream, Notonthesamepage, and Elusive Heat.

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