A new year has dawned, and with it the possibility of changed fortunes and sustained good luck. To be honest, I’ll probably spend most of the day watching bowl games (it’s a parade of SEC teams from here on out), but how could a horseplayer resist the urge to not start of the year with a little action today? I’ve consulted the seers. I’ve reviewed the omens. They’re either telling me to single Uffizi in the early Pick 4 at Santa Anita, or to invade Russia with a large army…I’m guessing it’s the former rather than the latter.
The feature today at Santa Anita is the Grade 3 El Conejo, which comes up as the third race on the card and therefore part of the early Pick 4 sequence. So be it. Looking at the race on paper, we’ve only got 5 entries for the 5 1/2 furlong sprint, and most of them seem to like to be on or very near the lead. Right off the bat you can see that Machismo and It’s in God’s Hands seemingly have to be on the lead to win.
Things get a bit different as we move down to Johnny Eves and Black Seventeen. He stalked in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Vosburgh, a style that would suit him well here. Still, on synthetics he does seem to be the type that wants to be part of the early action at least pressing the pace. I suspect he’ll have a big chance here today, but ultimately I’ll side against him for the win.
Johny Eves is another who can seemingly duel or stalk. He’s run some good races over the Santa Anita Pro Ride, and has posted back to back Beyer’s of 100 or more. Add to that the fact that Super Man himself, Garrett Gomez, is piloting Johnny Eves and anything is possible.
My selection, however, is the obvious play of In Summation breaking from the outside. He’s the clear “off-the-pace” type of the field, has thrived over the Pro Ride, and is the only horse of the field to sport a win (in his case 3 of them) at today’s shortened sprint distance of 5 1/2 furlongs. Oh yes, and he finished a game 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint behind Midnight Lute, Fatal Bullet, and Street Boss, any of whom would be obvious favorites against this field.
The trouble is that there’s no value on In Summation (listed as 7/5 on the morning line), and no hope of any good vertical betting action by nature of the reduced field size of just 5 horses. You know what that means…we’ve got to go horizontal to look for a score – which logically points to the Pick 4.
I’d spread pretty deep in the first legs of the pick 4. The second race in particular is probably your best bet for anything approaching an exciting price. The field sizes simply aren’t very big. We’re talking field sizes of 6,7,5, and 7 before any race day scratches. Not exactly the best Pick 4 we’ve ever played.
In the first leg I’ll cover 4 horses; Cherie’s Dream (9/2), Frangipanni (7/2), Mark Set Go (3/1), and Kula Girl (2/1*). I like Kula Girl the best here and think she may wire the field in the opener. Mark Set Go is the one I”m really interested in though switching from turf to synthetics. I’ve got a feeling she’ll be coming home well late. Cherie’s Dream and Frangipanni I had a notch below these two, but since the end of the ticket is so chalky I figured I might as well take stabs on them and hope for the best.
Moving to the second leg (race 2), we have some interesting choices. Auntgrace is the obvious play to me at 5/2, 2nd choice on the morning line. She’s dropping from $52k company for the Craig Dollase barn that has done serious damage in 2nd start situations (32%). She faced off against Alpha Kitten and Carson’s Gold last time out, and I’d easily single either of them against this field. Dancing Erin flashed speed and has to be considered, as do the first time starters Slammin Kat and Broken Silence. I really wanted to find a way to use Misstrailcityzone and Dothetwist, since they have better odds, but ultimately left them off the ticket.
We’ve already talked about the feature, where I’ll single In Summation, so now we’ll move onto the 4th and final leg of the Pick 4. I think you can safely single here as well as the favorite, Uffizi, looks very tough to knock off here. He’s dropping from the $70k level and has been freshened for trainer Mike Mitchell. He just looks like the field standout. I”m a bit worried about 3 horses; namely Fire Wood (with Joel Rosario), Parko (with Martin Pedroza), and Guts with Victor Espinoza, but in my heart of hearts I think those guys are running for place and show when this one is over.
Pick 4:
1,2,4,6/2,3,6,7/5/4
Total Cost $16
As always, best of luck to you and Happy New Year!
Oh yes, and as for the bowl games today? I like South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, Clemson in the Gator Bowl, USC in the Rose Bowl, and Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
I like the Pick 4 ticket. I didn’t get a chance to look at the PP’s for the race, but Johnny Eves really started getting good around this time last year. I’ll be keeping an eye out for him.
In Summation was an easy winner, congrats on the single! I don’t know what happened to Johnny Eves, but Gomez stood up on him in the early stretch. Hopefully nothing went awry.
I left after the fifth race, which was an odd one. The dark horse (black or gray, not sure) Mr. Holmes looked about as beautiful as a race horse can look– seemed so obviously a higher class than his buds, but finished last. The races before had been much as you said, not much value: everyone was choosing the same horses and they were winning and not paying much. The payout on your superfecta, if it had all fit together, was only $37. I thought it was going to work, too. Uffizi looked authoritative but a little scuffy in the paddock.