THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Haynesfield, a 3-year-old son of champion sprinter Speightstown, looks to make his name known on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail in a 7 horse edition of the Count Fleet at Aqueduct on Saturday.  The Steve Asmussen trainee turned heads with his brilliant run in the Damon Runyon earlier this month.  That win earned him a 101 Beyer figure, always sure to attract the attention of those looking for the next serious Derby contender.  Is Haynesfield that kind of horse?  We’ll find out soon enough.  The field sets up like this:

• #1 Pitched Perfectly (P. Morales/G. Contessa) 7/2
• #1A Bad Action (E. Castro/G. Contessa) 7/2
• #2 Aswaaq (J. Sanchez/K. McLaughlin) 4/1
• #3 Jess Not Jessie (C. Hill/L. Rice) 10/1
• #4 Haynesfield (R. Dominguez/S. Asmussen) 8/5*
• #5 Mike From Queens (R. Maragh/B. Levine) 9/2
• #6 Smart Bid (J. Rose/G. Motion) 8/1

The way the Count Fleet sets up, I’m not thinking Haynesfield will be on the lead.  Instead, I’d expect a change in styles and more of a stalking trip.  I say this because three of the other entries in the race; Pitched Perfectly, Aswaap, and Mike From Queens all have shown early speed before.  My guess is that Asmussen will want to see if Haynesfield can stalk when stretching out over a longer distance of ground.

Clearly  Haynesfield is the standout from a class and Beyer figure perspective.  I can’t see much sense in betting against him, unless you really like one of the other runners.  Trying to determine who the 2nd best horse of the field may be is a bit more challenging.

Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq hit the wire within a neck of each other last out.  It’s anyone’s guess between these two.  I tend to favor Pitched Perfectly, although I’d favor the trainer of Aswaaq, Kiaran McLaughlin. The horse I really expect to run a big one though is Mike From Queens.  He’s in the sharpest recent form of the rest of the field.

I’d play Haynesfield on top with Mike From Queens in place, with Pitched Perfectly, Aswaaq, and Jess Not Jesse in show.

4/5/1,2,3 ($3)

Looking over the rest of the card, I think there’s a pick 4 here that’s very playable for even those with smaller budgets.  The assumption, of course, will be that Haynesfield shows up and does his part as a free square (albeit one without any value) in the 8th race (3rd leg).   Looking at the first leg of the Pick 4 sequence, the 6th, there appears to be another free square potential with Toulouse Lautrec, a runner who managed a 94 Beyer in her debut chasing Quality Road, 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher. 

Assuming then that we have 2 “free squares” to play with, my recommendation would be to spread a bit in race 7, and especially in race 9.   In race 7  I’d cover Fort Drum, Dr. W, and Strummer (5,9,11).  In race 9 I’d go much deeper and cover I’mthequeenofqueens, Driven by Energy, Flying Heat, For Love Alone, Griffen Avenue, and Hooked on Money.  Luckily, the first two are a coupled entry.

6/5,9,11/4/1,4,6,8,10 ($15)

As always, best of luck to everyone and be sure to check for changes and/or scratches.