THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

So I need to start out here by saying that circumstance has got the better of me.  Despite my best intentions, several nights in a row without as much as a wink of sleep have left me in the following situation;  It’s Saturday morning (roughly 10:30 AM EST as I begin writing this), and I’ve seriously not slept in days.  The end result being that my DRF containing the Sunshine Millions races remains unopened.  My plans for the weekend seemingly foiled. 

What to do?  That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it (in this case a “sunshine million” dollar question)?   Well, it’s not like I’m at a loss for loosely related and largely disjointed horse racing thoughts floating around in my head.   What follows is the exhausted ramblings of your’s truly in an attempt to get some sort of posting up for the weekend that connects my main stream of thought (the “road to the roses”) and the big action of the day in the Sunshine Millions.

We’ll start with the Sunshine Millions.

For me , the story of the day and the play of the day is going to be Finallymadeit in the Classic.  In case you missed this guy’s story, it’s an inspirational tale that literrally left my jaw dropped to the floor when I first heard it earlier this week (big hat tip to Ron Correll at  Tracksideview).  So here he is in the Classic, a Grade 3 winner breaking from the rail and likely the controlling speed of the race.   He’s faced a lot of the main rivals today, including probable favorite Delightful Kiss, and while he faded badly against that one last out in the Hal’s Hope, that was after extremely quick fractions (note the 2nd call being :46.4).   He should be able to relax and set a more comfortable pace today.   Who knows?  Can he take them all the way?  I think he can, and while I’m also quite fond of Macho Again  and uneasy about downgrading Delightful Kiss at all due to post position (cough, Big Brown’s Florida Derby, cough), I think I"m going to make him my play of the day.  It’s just too good a story not to jump on the bandwagon for and hope for the best.   I know, not a very scientific handicapping approach, but perhaps my lack of sleep is making me feel more mystical and otherworldly at the moment (either that or I picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue).  

Looking over the rest of the races, I know Riffkind wanted to see my thoughts on Georgie Boy, and as she is one of my favorite reade’s here, I’d feel it was a total dereliction of duty on my part if left her disappointed.   Another of my favorite readers, Sally C, has already pointed out that the rains have fallen in CA, which definitely has an impact on the surface.  We’ve seen all kinds of wild results so far at Santa Anita this meet, so I’m more than a little disturbed that I keep coming up rather predictable with respect to my handicapping of the Sprint.  My top two choices are In Summation and Georgie Boy, although I prefer In Summation by an extremely slight margin. 

There are a couple of x-factor horses in the Sprint that are worth checking out come post parade time.  For instance, which version of Devoted Magic shows up today?  Sure we could say that 105 Beyer was a fluke, but this is a Jerry Hollendorfer runner and everything he touches seemingly turns to gold.   It’s also hard to knock Yesbyjimminy.  He’s coming off 6 consecutive victories, although they were all on dirt  and he’s drawn the extreme outside.   He’s obviously n ot one of my top selections, but don’t let a 6 time consecutive winner go off at too long odds.  Certainly there’s a point where he’s got value, right?  And what of Sok Sok and Big Bad Leryobrown?   ‘Leroy gets the "coolest name of the field" vote every time he goes to post (much like Steppenwolfer in my opinion), but he hasn’t won since October.  Sok Sok looks very dangerous here.  In fact, if I had to pick a longshot thief here, that’s my guy.  

So where does that leave me?  Well, I guess it means that I think about 6 horses could win this thing.  Obviously being a Grade 1 winner makes Georgie Boy an attractive selection, plus he should get a nice stalking trip.  I think it comes down to he and In Summation in the stretch in a battle of who-wants-it-more?   I’ll guess that Sok Sok is also making a bid to do battle down the stretch.  Take your pick from these 3.

Now onto the Derby trail:

Not much has changed in my rankings.  Square Eddie I’ve donwgraded  a bit as I need to see more.   Much like last year I’m at a loss as to where to correctly rank the west coasters, and until I see someone really blow me away, I’m going to keep Vineyard Haven at the top of the list.

1. Vineyard Haven  (still think he would beat ‘em all if the Derby were this weekend)
2. Old Fashioned (hard not to be impressed with this guy’s efforts.  He’s probably a smarter Derby contender than Vineyard Haven overall since he will be training in the U.S. while V.H. is in Dubai)
3. Pioneer of the Nile (while the last field he beat may have been a little weak, the horse has been working sensationally and looks like the real deal to me)
4. Friesan Fire (I’m back and forth with this guy.  One day I really like him, the next I’m not so sure. For now I think he’s a got a real chance, although everything is subject to change)
5. Breakwater Edison (I’m jumping on his bandwagon despite not having really had a chance to watch him.  We’ll find out more about this guy soon enough)
6. The Pamplemousse (It’s tough to figoure out where to rank  him.  He’d be higher if the Derby were in Santa Anita)
7. Square Eddie ( I still like him, and he probably needed that last race, but he needs to show me both better speed figures and good dirt form before I can safely move him up the list at this point).
8. Beethoven (From here on out the rankings are pretty even.  Ultimately I’m a bit higher on this guy since I cashed  on him last out.  That tends to impart positive associations/memories).
9. Notonthesamepage (may not have the distance to be a real Derby contender, but did flash a 115 Beyer last out)
10. Stardom Bound (love this filly, although I don’t think she’ll be pointed to the Derby)

Others I’m watching:  Haynesfield, Chocolate Candy, Big Drama, Midshipman, Munnings, Quality Road, Obligingly, Nicanor, Charitable Man, Flat Out, Free Country, Indygo Mountain, Cribnote, Giant Oak, Danger to Society, Hello Broadway, and Well Positioned.

Best of luck to you all and hope you have a great weekend.  I appreciate all of the support and encouragement as I continue my quest to enter the Guinness Book of World Records as the most sleep deprived father in the world.