THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

It wasn’t that long ago that I was falling madly in love with a chestnut colt running  in the Rebel back in 2007.  While there is no Curlin (at least not yet) this year, we will be treated to one of (if not THE) finest colts in the nation on Saturday when trainer Larry Jones sends Old Fashioned to post,  leading the field for the 49th running of the Rebel (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park. 

Past performances available here

1. Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/ L. Jones) 7/5*
2. Hamazing Destiny (T .J. Thompson/ D. W. Lukas) 5/1
3. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Von Hemel) 15/1
4. Pointing Home (J. A. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 15/1
5. Wise Kid (J. C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 9/2
6. His Greatness (L. J. Sterling Jr./ M. Salazar) 12/1
7. Captain Cherokee (L. S. Quinonez/ S. Asmussen) 8/1
8. Silver City (J. Court/ W. B. Calhoun) 4/1
9. Win Willy (M. C. Berry/ M. Robertson) 20/1

It would appear that Old Fashioned has scared off most of the would-be challengers.  The son of Unbridled’s Song looms the standout in the Rebel field coming off 4 consecutive victories to open his career, including the Remsen (Grade 2) and the Southwest  (Grade 3).   He’s expected to waltz past this field, and it’s worth noting that Larry Jones will be at Oaklawn with Old Fashioned rather than at Fair Grounds with Friesan Fire.  It looks like he should continue his triumphant procession this weekend towards the Kentucky Derby. 

Wise Kid is the horse I’m anxious to see in this field.  He’s progressed nicely up the ranks from Maiden Special Weight to N2L Optional Claimers last out.  The  son of Lemon Drop Kid has never seen the likes of Old Fashioned, but he certainly belongs with the rest of the field.

Silver City would be the logical choice underneath in exactas, having finished in the money in all 5 lifetime races (including 3 impressive wins sprinting).  He faced off against Old Fashioned in the Southwest and held on for place.  You get the feeling the exact same thing will happen this weekend, which might make him vulnerable to being upset in the exacta pool by a runner like Wise Kid.

Poltergeist is a horse I heard a lot of buzz about going into the Southwest, but he didn’t really show up that day.  If you liked him that day, you’ve got to at least like the 15/1 morning line odds this weekend. 

The head-scratcher of this race is Hamazing Destiny.  He put up a 96 Beyer in his debut over the Oaklawn track sprinting 6 furlongs on February 7.  He’s also been turning in strong workouts in the mornings.  The question is, can he run that type of figure stretching out to 1 1/16 miles?   I’d make him prove it before accepting him at 5/1, but then again there’s not a whole lot else to hang your hat on in this race.

Captain Cherokee, His Greatness, and Win Willy look playable underneath.  Let’s see…that’s pretty much the entire field though.  The only horse I don’t think has a legit shot of hitting the board is Pointing Home. 

I’ll take Old Fashioned over Wise Kid and Silver City in place.  I’ll spread pretty deep for the bottom spots of the Superfecta by adding in Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist, His Greatness, and Captain Cherokee for show.  Add Win Willy to that mix for 4th.

Selections:

• $20 Win #1 Old Fashioned
• $.10 Superfecta: 1/5,8/2,3,5,6,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 ($5.00)

That’ll do it folks…it’s been a long evening, so there’s your picks for the major Derby preps this weekend.   One note as a horse racing fan – do make sure you also check out the impressive filly Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks.  She just might be the best horse running all day.