THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

• #1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
• #2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
• #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
• #4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
• #5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
• #6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
• #7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
• #8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
• #9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
• #10  Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season.  It’s hard to believe we’re already here.  Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself.  Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash?  Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.  

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said?  You’ve got to love “the bird.”  Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May.  After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta.  Big mistake.  He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny.  For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.”  Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him.  In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us.  I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant. 

He ought to run away with this one, right? 

It’s a foregone conclusion, right? 

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?  

“Not so fast!” 

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races.  We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get.  The trouble is  (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race?  I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out.  You know he’ll do that much.  He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be.  I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.  

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him.  Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though.  He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide.  Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is.  The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough.  It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory).  Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career.  He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle.  Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires. 

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch.  When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one.  We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come.  A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch.  That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs.  Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace. 

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore.  Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk?  He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance.  If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here.  I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont.  Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half.  Some just take longer than others.”  My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance.  Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race.  If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field).  All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th.  My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird.  If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance.  If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird?  He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race.   Don’t we see this happen all the time?  Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and  prevails.  All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so.  Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race?  I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th.  That means 13 other runners finished behind him.  What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont.  This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory.  He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again.  I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy.  Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14. 

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov.  We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.”  It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot  Spitzer.  Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102.  I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter.  Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff.  The Tiznow of the field.  Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board.  The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt.  At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself.  I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped.  You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts.  NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow!  Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now.  What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself.  It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat? 

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field.  No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary.  I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade.  It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered. 

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through.  The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise.  Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

• #7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
• #6 Charitable Man (3/1)
• #1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours.  It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.