If the previous week has taught us anything, it’s that attempting to rank the prospects for the 2010 Kentucky Derby is a largely futile act that is rife with subjection, beset by imperfections, and of course a lightning rod for controversy. Headed into the weekend, most folks (including yours truly) had Buddy’s Saint ranked in the top 3 on their Derby watch lists. All that changed on Saturday following a hellacious trip in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.
So where do we stand now? Well, there is no definitively correct answer. What follows is most certainly not an attempt to predict who may eventually outmaneuver each other in jockeying for a starting spot in the Derby, nor a reflection on the actual overall talent of the horses in question. Doubtless, this list will continue to move wildly all over the place from week to week, with venerable favorites dropping like 10,000 pound rocks, and virtual unknowns rising to the top like some UFO shaped balloon purportedly piloted by young Falcon Heene.
In other words, it’s just my humble opinion – and only serves as a snapshot of this moment in time. Indeed, my opinion on some of these runners changes from moment to moment. I’m willing to bet a good number of these horses don’t even get to so much as sniff the Kentucky air the first Saturday in May. Probably the only authors out there who can pull off the “Derby watch list trick” with any real acumen are Steve Haskin and his “Derby Dozen” over on Bloodhorse, and Ron Correll over at TrackSideView. With that said, let’s get on with the show, shall we?
1. ESKENDEREYA
Todd Pletcher’s runner moves into poll position for the moment based off his strong effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2/20. Personally, I still have plenty of concerns about his more forwardly placed running style, as well as the way the Fountain of Youth essentially fell into his lap with the way Buddy’s Saint was handled, but there’s no denying that was a very good effort over the likes of such highly touted competitors as the aforementioned favorite (Buddy’s Saint), Aikenite, Pulsion, and Jackson Bend. I’m not sure if any of the other runners in that field have legitimate shots at becoming Derby contenders, but this son of Giant’s Causeway did what he needed to do to move forward off of his Allowance level victory last out. Whenever a horse shows improvement like that at a lower level, and then comes back and proves they can run to that same level against better – it tells me he’s a serious race horse. I cannot see myself keeping this guy on top of this list for long as there’s now way I’d bet him if the Derby were tomorrow, but for now I’ll give him a tepid nod for the top spot. Admittedly, I’m probably drinking the “what have you done for me lately” kool-aid here.
2. ODYSSEUS
You may have missed him if you blinked this past week. That’s largely because he wasn’t running in the more highly heralded major prep races on Saturday. Nope, instead, pulling his own Boise St. routine, Odysseus romped on a Wednesday afternoon over Allowance runners at Tampa Bay. I know – that’s not exactly a hotbed for sudden Derby sensations to come stomping out of, but there’s something special about this guy. He’s bred magnificently, and I love the way he dispatched winners the first time out so confidently. If you remember what Curlin first looked like to you watching the replay of the Rebel in 2007, or the way Big Brown looked in his 2008 debut, I think there may be a little bit of that going on here. We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this colt next out as he’s going to have to pick up some graded stakes earnings. Is he a contender or a pretender? For now, I’m sticking with contender and jumping squarely on the bandwagon. I’ll say this for certain: The entire 2010 Triple Crown season will be infinitely more “epic” if a horse named Odysseus is around.
3. DISCREETLY MINE
Another prep race, another Todd Pletcher trained winner. The son of Mineshaft had never been over a mile before, but proved on Saturday in the G2 Risen Star that he could handle 8.5 furlongs with relative ease. He’s another in Pletcher’s barn that has found himself setting the pace recently, and the world waits with bated breath to ensure these horses can eventually show signs of being able to win from coming off the pace. I think of this horse as an x-factor, as folks seem to either be enormously high on him, or enormously critical. I’m ranking him this high because I thought he was up against it taking on Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Ron the Greek – 3 horses that were being highly touted by folks whispering about possible Derby contenders. None of them had anything for Discreetly Mine, who was never in doubt for a single step of the way. Now, does he want to go 10 furlongs? I’m not sure. Pletcher probably considers Eskendereya and Rule his 1, 2 punches at the moment, but Discreetly Mine isn’t a bad plan-C to have around.
4. RULE
Man, are we ever going to get away from Todd Pletcher’s runner? This is absolute insanity. Three of the top Four spots? I think the most obvious observation is that these can’t possibly remain the way they are for long. Rule ran away with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay earlier in the month. Pletcher immediately commented that a Grade 1 race would be next (take your guess at which though). Either way, he’s likely to run into tougher competition, including perhaps a stablemate or two. I’m still not entirely sold that this is a top notch Derby horse, but based on his performance in the Sam F. Davis, he deserves to be ranked highly for now.
5. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
I’d rank him a lot higher if I had any idea how he’d perform on dirt. I know he’s impressive, and I know he’s very highly regarded, especially by our friends on the west coast that have had a chance to see him in person, but I can’t help but remember that he lost in his own backyard to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Baffert has mentioned he thinks Lucky will do well on dirt, and we must remember that several horses (I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, etc.) showed marked improvement coming east and taking the synthetic-to-dirt approach last year. Another thing working in Lucky’s favor – this could be the year that the California 3-year-old crop is markedly better than its east coast rival. In years past I’ve been a bit too high on the CA crop – maybe this year is the one not to be too critical? I still want to see one dirt performance before making a final decision.
6. VALE OF YORK
Arguably the hardest horse to keep on this list, despite the fact that he’s the reigning 2-year-old champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s been in Dubai and is now headed to Europe and may not even make it to the Derby, but his exploits as a 2-year-old suggest he deserves to at least be a part of the discussion at the Derby table. You’re going to have to keep your eye on him if you are following along, as you aren’t likely to hear a whole lot about him. In fact, I’m almost certain that within a month it will be impossible to continue to rank him here, but until someone else impresses me equally, he’s here. Being totally transparent, I will say that cashing a win bet at greater than 30/1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend on Vale of York definitely earned a soft spot in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.
7. CARACORTADO
How can you not love a horse that is named for Al Pacino’s infamous Tony Montana character in the film Scarface? ”Say hello to my lil’ friend!” I’ve yet to see this guy race live, but many feel he’s going to give Lucky more than a handful if they both stay in California and take the Santa Anita Derby path to Churchill Downs. A son of Cat Dreams, all he does is win over the synthetics. He made short work of two highly touted Derby hopefuls in American Lion and Tiz Chrome (neither of whom looked particularly impressive) in the Robert Lewis.
8. JACKSON BEND
Stays on this list despite being dropped from many such lists across the country. I just couldn’t knock the guy following 2 game efforts for place in the G3 Holy Bull (behind the now-injured Winslow Homer) and the G2 Fountain of Youth (behind current top dog Eskendereya). So much for the knock that he was just a slightly above average Calder horse, or so it would appear. The son of Hear no Evil rides for the Nick Zito barn, and has been either first or second in all 8 lifetime races. We can say one thing with certainty: he has a knack for factoring into the exacta.
9. SIDNEY’S CANDY
Most folks remember 2009 as a solid season for the offspring of Candy Ride, most notably with Kentucky Derby hopeful Chocolate Candy. Sidney’s Candy is yet another of the impressive looking Candy Ride line, and this one comes with a ton more speed than Chocolate Candy ever had. I’ll be honest – this is an aggressive ranking – and a spot I seriously considered sticking instead with either Buddy’s Saint or Ron the Greek. What has me sold on Sidney is potential. He dropped jaws with his win in the San Vicente, and according to Ron Correll at Tracksideview, may be headed to the Gotham stakes next. Could be any kind of horse.
10. BLIND LUCK
Just a few years ago, people would’ve scoffed at the notion of including a filly in a top 10 list for the Kentucky Derby. Thanks to the recent exploits of fillies like Eight Belles, Rags to Riches, and of course Rachel Alexandra, such critics have been largely silenced. Let’s be frank here (“stop calling me Shirley!!!”), in all likelihood she’s going to stay against 3-year-old fillies and will not face a colt the entire season. At this point in time there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that her connections will even contemplate a run against 19 colts in the Kentucky Derby, and I can’t say I blame them for those sentiments. I’ll admit that I’m holding out hope that she “pulls a Rachel” and winds up in Baltimore for the Preakness, but even that is probably wishful thinking at best. I will say this – the colts rank higher than her on this list do not scare me enough to think she doesn’t still belong in the discussion. Based on talent alone, if news were to drop tomorrow that her connections were thinking of the Derby, she’d move up several places on this list and become a serious contender. Before you laugh, just remember that I said the same thing at this point in time last year about Rachel Alexandra, and the same thing in 2008 about Eight Belles and Pure Clan.
OTHER NOTABLES
Obviously you can’t rank everyone on your list. I still think RON THE GREEK is a horse to keep an eye on. He didn’t get much pace to run at in the Risen Star and that probably cost him. I’m also pretty high on DUBLIN (who gave a solid account of himself in the Southwest) and DAVE IN DIXIE, who is another that appears could be any kind of horse and is one to keep an eye on. I’m going to make BUDDY”S SAINT and horses like SUPER SAVER show me something before they are brought back into the discussion.
Supremely disappointing this week? DROSSELMEYER – where the heck was he in the Risen Star? He seemed to be a consensus top 10 horse wherever you looked. Huge disappointment. I’m giving BUDDY”S SAINT some mercy here but not delving deeper into his debacle, but suffice to say that the whole trip was a nightmare.
So that’s where I stand for the moment. What about you guys?
Drosselmeyer was compromised by the combination of a slow pace, a quick turnaround and having to ship.
I have not given up on him yet.
Man, does this list have a lot of “What have you done for me last week?” flavor.
A note about Sidney’s Candy: While Candy Ride won going 1 & 1/4 easily, he seems to be throwing offspring whose best distances are 7-8 furlongs. He has had only 2 winners win further. (Misremembered and Chocolate Candy)
Sprinters: El Brujo, Capt. Candyman Can, Evita Argentina.
Maybe Sidney’s Candy will be okay, but it seems like Candy Ride offspring inherit the distance ability of their dam’s side, which may spell doom come the 1st Saturday in May
Obviously you cant fault BUDDY’S SAINT. too much to overcome. He got absolutely nothing conditioning wise from the race, so he will need to bounce back strongly next start. I believe he is talented enough to do just that. How about CONVEYANCE, doesnt matter whether its synthetics or now dirt, he has won on both surfaces and is a two time graded stakes winner. LOOKIN AT LUCKY & SUPER SAVER both better be ready to run. ESKENDEREYA deserves the top spot for sure, usually horses on the triple crown trail dont put in a performance of that magnitude so early on the road….WOW….RULE is a true battler and has many gears to use when he needs them. DUBLIN didnt have the best of trips, but got his 3 yr old campaign off to a very nice start with a good second place finish. DROSSLEMEYER is overrated, he got a dream trip in his allowance win and beat nothing special. DAVE IN DIXIE & CARACORTADO are formidable opponents for LUCKY. I wont give up on VALE OF YORK, but until Godolphin can commit to him coming for the Derby, he wouldnt be in any top 10 list for my liking.
I’m starting to like Dave In Dixie more and more, his closing rush behind Caracortado in the Lewis was stunning.
Also loved the way Discreetly Mine won the Risen Star. I’ve been waiting for him to break-through with his own graded stakes win since last year.
Eskeydereya has been one of my favorites since the Pilgrim Stakes last fall, but I still think Buddy’s Saint is the better horse and will come back as good as he was before.
Was the announcer pronouncing ODYSSEUS’s name right?
@Tencent – you know, Odysseus has some “cielo” in him – Persimmon Hill by Conquistador Cielo! Just sayin’ . Yes, this is greatly affected by “what have you done for me lately?” but it is what it is, and I know that it changes almost by the minute. About Sidney’s Candy – you’re darn straight. Distance is the key question. The thing is – I could say the same about many. You bring up a great point about the Candy Rides though that does seem true. Maybe 7-8 furlongs is his best. He at least deserves a shot to go longer though. Just once at least – just in case.
@Nick -sound logic on display in your reply. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote – including the concerns with Vale of York and the thoughts that Conveyance deserves some consideration as well.
@Brian – I’m the same way. The more I watch Dave in Dixie, the more I like him. I guess his name doesn’t hurt, considering I am an Alabamian by birth.
@Ernie – that’s been the subject of great debate. I’ve come to learn that there are a myriad of different pronunciations for Odysseus. I had always assumed everyone said “Ode-IS-see-us”, but evidently folks are all over the board with this. Part of me wonders if the connections to the horse haven’t specified he be called a certain way….but then again, we did just experience a year that saw Rachel being called “Alexander” right down to the end, so who knows.
All – one thing I KNOW I will goof on in the near future – it’s almost unavoidable….there’s no way I make it through the entire Triple Crown season without referring to Sidney’s Candy as a “she” at least twice. Please be merciful when it happens.
Kevin’s nightmare trifecta:
Sidney’s Candy
Dubious Miss
Kera’s Kitten
And if they face older horses on the turf, toss in Presious Passion for good measure!
Truth be told… we can all specualte at this point and breeding is a factor along with past performances, but with such a demanding distance and large field… it’s really all going to come down to who is geared up and primed to win. I am big on pedigree as most know, but I’ve seen CARACORTADO want to win. These are herding animals and this will come into play… this horse defies both nature and nurture. It is an interesting topic and fun to discuss, but truth be told it all comes down to one day… the first Saturday in May. I’m not a “futures” bettor nor do I practice Santeria. There are many contenders, but who would’ve predicted MINE THAT BIRD last year? Gelded… Pedigree… Connections… It’s a 20 horse field which makes the pace scenario completely unpredictable. Just being real.
I was impressed w/Dublin, too & I agree w/ESKENDEREYA for the top spot. He’s really had the only stand out performance.
I’d love to see Eightyfiveinafifty make it around 2 turns! I believe there’s lots of potential there. Anyone know where he’s racing again? Cannot wait for the next 2 months (derby preps then the Derby AND THE APPLE BLOSSOM!!!)
I just got a chance to watch Odysseus race for the first time (dial-up here!) and you are so right Kevin. He moved so fast around that turn it took my breath away.
He rates, has a turn of foot like few others I’ve seen, pours it on in the stretch and is a chestnut! He’s got it all, and yes I agree, he reminded me of Curlin too before I even read your remark that said so.
It looked a lot like the way Curlin won his maiden. Except that Curlin was in the middle of the track and didn’t look like he worked for it quite as hard. (:
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