It gives me great pleasure to unveil our fifth installment of the weekly Kentucky Derby rankings madness. The weekend saw the defeats of Discreetly Mine and Conveyance from our previous Derby ranking list, and the emergence of a potential fifth column of new contenders looking to close the gap between themselves and the leading candidates.
Obviously not my best stuff, and needless to say when I return from a business trip to Phoenix this week, I’ll be looking to make amends in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby this Saturday.
#1 Odysseus
In all truth is probably best considered a notch below Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, but this has been my guy since mid-February, so I have to keep him here until he gives me reason to think otherwise. Two portents of impending danger this week were the decision to point the son of Malibu Moon to the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the big ride jockey Rajiv Maragh had aboard Mission Impazible. The latter sets up a potential decision for Maragh that impact Odysseus greatly. One last omen is that he will run into an accomplished turf/synthetic horse with a good late kick in Interactif in the Toyota Blue Grass on 4/10. My eyes, my heart, and my gut still tell me this is a real race horse. If he’s the horse I think he is, he’ll catch the earnings he needs in the Blue Grass to secure a starting spot in the Derby. He doesn’t need to win, but he’ll need a good trip to keep his sharp jockey on his back.
#2 Eskendereya
The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend. The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years. Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3. The Wood might come up tough, so he may be tested this weekend.
#3 Lookin at Lucky
Might be the best 3-year-old in the nation at the moment. Overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008. This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. According to the most recent news from Bloodhorse, he’s 90% certain for the Santa Anita Derby on April 3. Will the moves from synthetics to dirt and back again be an issue, or is this colt simply too talented to be bothered by the shipping?
#4 Awesome Act
Remains my 2nd favorite 3-year-old on this list behind Odysseus. Good looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial this weekend. The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory. Now I consider him my Hard Spun of this crop (given that Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Lucky this year’s Street Sense as defending 2-year-old champion).
#5 Ice Box
Proves that this time of year is all about the what have you done for me lately approach. Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so? That’ll give you a spot in the top 5 for now. It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race. If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.
#6 Mission Impazible
Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him the fastest rising horse on the list. Yet another contender for the ubiquitous Pletcher barn in their quest for a first Derby victory. The Louisiana Derby was a strange race to me. It looked fast early and a little ugly late, but Mission Impazible was running well through the wire. Colt gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.
#7 Endorsement
I’ll probably take some flak for being so generous here, but let me make the case for this horse, as I think another contender just tossed their hat into the ring before our eyes. He won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46. In doing so, he defeated one of our “Cris Charter” (without the “h”) types in Conveyance, and the popular Tempted to Tapit. He’s a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare (Charmed Gift), so I don’t think distance will be a concern. Seems to be peaking at the perfect time to potentially make some noise.
#8 Sidney’s Candy
Will evidently have to deal with Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday, which might be a tall order. Many question whether this horse can get the longer distances – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions). As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse.
#9 Interactif
To many observers, this was the most impressive horse of the San Felipe, despite being defeated by Sidney’s Candy. So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but I’d rather know definitively going into the first Saturday in May. Will go into the Toyota Blue Grass this weekend with a great chance to pull a victory over Odysseus on the synthetic Keeneland surface. Just remember that at one point in 2007, Dominican beat Street Sense in the same race.
#10 Noble’s Promise
Without a doubt, the standout Rodney Dangerfield of our list. Depending on how you look at him, he’s either a step away from having defeated Lookin at Lucky, or he’s a son of Cuvee that either can’t find a way to win the close ones and/or won’t get the distance of the Derby. He seems like an overachiever to me, and he’s always right there in the mix. Maybe folks forgot to tell him he’s just a son of Cuvee? Will face off against Dublin, Pulsion, and others in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Honorable Mention List (in no particular order):
Pleasant Prince - 2nd place finisher behind Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
Schoolyard Dreams – if Odysseus is my #1, this horse almost had him in a fittingly epic photo finish end to the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
Drosselmeyer – Likely not Derby bound, but put in a good run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and could be a player for the Preakness.
Caracortado – is the world still yours, Scarface?
Super Saver – needed a race going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
D’Funnybone – accomplished 1-turn horse being whispered as a potential Preakness candidate.
Dean’s Kitten - Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
Jackson Bend – another Rodney Dangerfield type who gets no respect, but will get a crack at Esky and Awesome Act in the Wood this weekend.
Coming up this Saturday, April 3 is a pair of prestigious Grade 1 races in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby. Also on tap is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.
Blessings have been bestowed upon us, racing fans. Not only is the weekend finally here, and along with it a duo of prep races for the 2010 Kentucky Derby, but also another chance at capturing a sliver of relevance from amongst the general populace. Take Back Saturday returns, at least in theory, thanks to NBC Sports’ “Road to the Kentucky Derby” broadcast, beginning at 5PM (ET) on the USA Network. One of our most popular racing personalities, Jill Byrne, will be helping to host the activities, along with former jockey Gary Stevens, Mike Battaglia, and a host of other on-air talents.
Personally, I’m a huge fan of Jill’s, and consider her one of the most insightful analysts out there who is capable of bridging the gap between experienced horse racing fans and those who are only novice players (or even first time viewers). In other words, EXACTLY the right person for the job. She’s got the charm, the wit, and all the intangibles necessary for the kind of presentation we need. If you’re out there Jill, here’s hoping you knock ‘em dead.
"I'd just like to say, we're all counting on you, good luck."
Several weeks ago, you may recall the unmitigated disaster that was the NTRA”s attempt to offer live video streaming of the 2010 debuts of the sports’ biggest stars; Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. But you know what? Lost in the shuffle and all the boo-hooing bloggers like myself did in the immediate aftermath was the fact that the NTRA actually rose from the ashes of that disaster like a proverbial Phoenix and wound up delivering a presentation that, at least in my humble estimation, was a quality broadcast whilst covering theGrade 1 Florida Derby.
We need to build on this success, “and that right soon.”
This isn’t just about the NTRA, or NBC, or USA, or even TVG or HRTV. It’s bigger than all of that. All around the country, famous race tracks are closing up shop, horses with impeccable blood lines are winding up in “kill pens”, and countless hard working individuals who have tirelessly toiled, often for meager financial reward, just to put on the show so many of us love are losing their livelihoods. In the midst of the “great recession”, we must find an opportunity, and then persevere through thick and thin to exploit that possibility to the fullest of advantages.
So here we stand, in a familiar place not unlike that which we found ourselves several weeks ago. We stand upon the precipice. Below us are the rocks upon which so many hopes, dreams, and good intents have been splattered to oblivion. If, however, we can summon the courage to gaze our eyes into the glimmering spectacle of the day’s setting sun, we might see a valley that lies within reach filled with the fruits of our labors – one in which our children and grand children will be able to proudly participate in this game that has changed so many of our lives, and given us all enough memories to last a lifetime.
As such, I’m calling on racing fans the world over to step up to the plate this weekend and attempt to make a difference. Sure, we can sit back and continue to attempt to rest on the laurels of our Andy Warhol-esque “2 minutes of fame” each Spring in the Kentucky Derby itself, but if we can give folks a reason to care even more, and ensure that when they do get that stirring inside of them, and that hunger for more marquee racing action, that we are available to them, then perhaps those famed 2 minutes on the first Saturday of each May can serve as a stepping stone towards a hint of national relevance, rather than a denouement.
Back in my brief collegiate days (like Jeffrey Lebowski, I seem to have spent my time “occupying various administrative buildings” rather than applying myself as I should have, such being the idiocy of youth), I spent some time as a “frat boy.” If any of you joined a Fraternity or a Sorority in college, you may remember the insane season known as “Rush” that happened each year. Each “Greek” organization trying to scoop up as many fresh recruits as possible to help sustain the future of their clans.
My group had a little saying during those times: EMGAM – “Every Man Get a Man”, no exceptions. I’m counting on all of you to do something similar here. Give it the old “college try” and take your best shot at sharing our little corner of the sports world with a new and prospective fan.
There’s power in numbers, and if each of us can bring one new person into the fold this weekend, we just might be able to convince the networks that regularly scheduled horse racing broadcasts are a viable niche market.
I’ve spent the better part of 2 years now railing on ad nauseum about“Take Back Saturday”- and now comes the point in time where I need you all. Really it’s more than that. It’s not just me who needs you all – we all need each other for this one. You know the drill. Together we stand, divided we fall. It’s showtime, peeps. Of course, I realizenot everyone agrees this is such a good idea.
I thought the Louisiana Derby came up a little quick on paper to anticipate DISCREETLY MINE being able to wire the field as easily as he did in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Instead, I’m turning my attention to a trio of off-the-pace runners who could be moving well late, and each at a juicy price.
RON THE GREEK is a horse I’ve liked since the season began, although evidently I goofed and left him off the honorable mention list in last week’s Derby rankings. That was a mistake, he belongs in the hunt, and a win this weekend would move him up closer to Ice Box as yet another closer capable of turning the tables on the speedy types that have thus far dominated the Derby trail.
Another interesting horse in this race is STAY PUT. The son of Broken Vow could be forgotten a bit on the tote board, despite showing obvious signs of talent late last year and early this winter. It’s ironic that he actually finished ahead of RON THE GREEK in the Risen Star, yet is listed at longer odds on the morning line. I wouldn’t sell this guy short – he might wind up being a better horse than ‘Ron when all is said and done. If nothing else, he’s got just a good a chance.
Lastly, I thought Nick Zito’s FLY DOWN might be a sneaky play here. Apart from a bad start in his debut, this horse has done all he’s been asked to do, and he could get first jump at whatever pace RON THE GREEK and STAY PUT are closing into courtesy of DISCREETLY MINE.
Of course, if the front runner does get loose, the whole thing is academic.
Two other horses worth considering for the exotics would be DROSSELMEYER (who has to break from all the way out in the 13 hole), and A LITTLE WARM, who has some impressive speed figures but will be stretching out beyond a mile for the first time.
Selections:
#6 Ron the Greek (6/1)
#9 Stay Put (10/1)
#7 Discreetly Mine (7/2*)
Grade 2 Lane’s End (Turfway Park – Race 9) – 5:12 PM (ET)
The Grade 2 Lane’s End kicks things off for the day at Turfway Park and features a field of 10 runners travelling 9 furlongs over the main track, in search of much needed graded stakes earnings from the $500k purse that is up for grabs. I thought this race looked a little too obvious on paper, with CONNEMARA coming up as the obvious selection. Todd Pletcher has been having a sensational season with his bevy of 3-year-olds this year, and this appears to be a good spot for the son of Giant’s Causeway. He’s the one to beat and should get a chance to renew his rivalry with the speedy RANGER HEARTLEY in the stretch. These two have banged heads 3 times already, with CONNEMARA getting the best of RANGER HEARTLEY twice.
For those looking to catch a better price than CONNEMARA is sure to offer, consider using the other Giant’s Causeway colt in this race, NORTHERN GIANT. The D.Wayne Lukas trainee was whipped by Discreetly Mine and others in the debut, but made up roughly 20 lengths against that rival last out in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Yes, it took him six tries to break the maiden, but he also ran into Stay Put along the way. I thought his 3rd place finish in the Risen Star was a sign of talent, and this could be a guy improving at just the right time.
I must take a moment to pause and note that RANGER HEARTLEY is named in honor of a fallen hero, Staff Sgt. Jeffrey Hartley, who was killed in action when his vehicle encountered a roadside bomb in Khargulia, Iraq on 4/8/08 during Operation Iraqi Feedom. I think it’s appropriate to share an image of the real Ranger Hartley, as I think the man should be remembered whenever the horse named in his honor is discussed.
Staff Sgt. Jeffrey L. Hartley - heroic namesake of the horse "Ranger Heartley"
Sue Dowling, credited with selecting the name, has done a great service to the memory of her nation’s fallen heroes. I happen to concur with her assessment that names can be more than just trivial details. If I hadn’t already told you this, Amy and I actually named our first born son after a fallen soldier as well for the same reasons – to honor his memory, and in the hope that somehow our son might acquire some of those qualities that set his namesake apart as a man amongst men.
The hero we chose? Delta Sgt. Randall Shughart, killed in action in Somalia in 1993. What’s left of Randy Shughart, who along with Gary Gordon became the first posthumous Medal of Honor winners our nation had recognized since the Vietnam War, is buried not far from us in the cemetary at Carlisle, PA. A picture of the gravesite that my parents took hangs on the wall in our house, as a reminder of the terrible price a chosen few are called to pay “that their nation might live.”
I’ve secretly held onto the notion for years that if I eve got a chance to name a thoroughbred, I’d likely name him “Shughart” in Randy’s honor. Honestly, is it possible for those of us who have never had to shoulder a weapon or endure such horrors ever do enough to properly recognize those who have? I think not – but I’m damn glad there men out there like Jeffrey Hartley and Randy Shughart who do so, and I’m damn proud to be able to call them countrymen.
For this reason, regardless of where my selections wind up – I’ll be rooting for RANGER HEARTLEY with everything I have.
“…Tho’ all the world betrays thee, one sword at least thy rights shall guard, one faithful harp shall praise thee.”
– The Minstrel Boy by Thomas Moore
Didn’t mean to dampen the mood – just thought that story had to be told.
Selections:
#1 Connemara (7/5*)
#7 Northern Giant (5/1)
#5 Ranger Heartley (6/1)
Best of luck to all of you.
If you get a chance, take a moment to stop over and say hello to our newest members of the TBA.
And last, but most certainly not least, our own friend and familiar face Brian Appleton of Rail Runner
(and don’t forget – “EMGAM”, and say a little prayer for the family of the real Ranger Hartley and others who have suffered for us so that we can enjoy moments like the Triple Crown chase in relative peace and harmony)
With 40 days to go until the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take another look at the top contenders and see if we can make any sense of things. The past weekend saw the emergence of a long awaited true closer in Ice Box with his victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby over the likes of Rule and Lentenor. We also saw D’Funnybone do his thing at the 7 furlong distance, and while it’s always fun to watch him at work, the word on the street for now is that the Preakness would be his likely destination this May.
To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings. The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest. Positions 5 through 10 are where the real arguments seem to be. There’s probably a good dozen or more runners one could consider for those spots, and certainly there will be more in the next couple of weeks.
No surprises here. The big red colt who began his Kentucky Derby Odyssey in relative obscurity and burst onto the scene with a heroic effort against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. The only real question now is what they’ll do with him over the next 7 weeks. Rumors fly around that he may be “trained up” to the Derby, although the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Bluegrass have been mentioned as possibilities (so was the Wood at one point). From the moment we first noticed him, the similarities have been apparent between he and another big red colt that many of us developed strong affections for. He could be entering the Derby even greener than Curlin was – which isn’t a good thing. I won’t argue with those that have him ranked lower. This is my horse, and I’m sticking with him through thick and thin. Even if the Preakness might be a wiser, (slightly) longer term goal.
#2 Eskendereya
The horse most likely to be found atop other Derby watch lists, and for good reason. The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend. The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years. Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.
#3 Lookin at Lucky
Classy son of Smart Strike (aren’t they all?) who overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008. Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that gamble. This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. Up next could be the Arkansas Derby on 4/10 at Oaklawn.
#4 Awesome Act
Impressive looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3. The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory. I learned my lesson. Hopefully anyone else that thought like me has also learned. He’ll be up against it facing Esky and the Wood field, but this colt passes the eye test for sure and could still wind up being the best of the bunch. He’s my 2nd favorite horse on this list (behind my obvious super-fave). If Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Awesome Act my Hard Spun.
How awesome is Awesome Act? Well, he’s awesome – there’s no doubt of that, but nothing can be as awesome as this:
As awesome as Awesome Act and the others are, they will never be as awesome as this.
#5 Ice Box
Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so? Say hello to the top 5 Ice Box. It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race. If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone. He’s got one other thing working in his corner as well; trainer Nick Zito.
#6 Discreetly Mine
Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some. He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents. I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, and if he can relax quite a bit, he’d suddenly be a lot more interesting. Likely headed to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
#7 Conveyance
Someone has to get our “Rodney Dangerfield award” this week, and though he doesn’t technically fall in our rankings, he’s as good a candidate as any to nominate for getting no respect. Of course he’s also unbeaten, which means he’s an honorary recipient of our weekly Cris Carter award for being an “all he does is win horse races” type of runner. Baffert is reportedly keeping him on target for the Sunland Park Derby this weekend. You might remember that race from last year thanks to a little horse named Mine That Bird.
#8 Sidney’s Candy
I continue to question whether this horse can get the distance – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions). As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse when all is said and done. We’ll find out more in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/3.
#9 Interactif
While I loved this colt’s move in the San Felipe when he came charging for Sidney’s Candy late in the race, I’m still not certain this is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse. So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but wouldn’t you rather know that going into the first Saturday in May? Stays on the list for now, but like the others has serious questions to be answered.
#10 Noble’s Promise
I toyed with ranking Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince, or even Caracortado here, but ultimately thought it was Noble’s Promise who deserved the ranking based on merit. I’m troubled that the horse has a knack for finishing just behind the winners, but it’s important to note he was just a head behind the highly regarded ‘Lucky in the Rebel and just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Likely pointing to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
Honorable Mention:
The list of other horses we’re keeping our eye on is nearly unending, but some noteworthy names we haven’t given up on yet and would not be surprised to see move forward again would include (in no particular order):
Connemara
Schoolyard Dreams
Pleasant Prince
Dublin
Super Saver
Rule
Drosselmeyer
Jackson Bend
Tempted to Tapit
Caracortado
Up next are the Lane’s End, the Louisiana Derby, and the Sunland Derby. Check back later in the week for coverage and selections for each race. Until then, may the horse be with you.
As the unstoppable procession towards the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby continues, we find ourselves at an important crossroads with significant Grade 1 earnings on the line in the Florida Derby.
Several horses have used the Florida Derby as an important step along the way to eventual victory on the first Saturday in May, including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001). Additionally, the Grade 2 Swale Stakes will also offer an opportunity for horses in need of graded stakes earnings as they attempt to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Our top 10 lists have been fluctuating from week to week. The question that remains to be answered now is who will step forward this weekend and demand that we take notice? We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking first at the Swale Stakes.
The Swale Stakes isn’t one of the more glamorous Kentucky Derby prep races, as it is only contested over a distance of 7 furlongs. Still, nine horses have entered in the $150,000 race, headlined by the Rick Dutrow trained D’funnybone; winner of the Grade 2 Hutcheson last out. The field sets up like this:
#1 Here Ye Hear Ye (15/1)
#2 Silver Craft (15/1)
#3 Ibboyee (4/1)
#4 City Trooper (6/1)
#5 Fearless Cowboy (10/1)
#6 Dixie Band (6/1)
#7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
#8 Gary D (12/1)
#9 Privilaged (20/1)
D’FUNNYBONE is deserving of the morning line favoritism. The only time we’ve ever seen this horse turn in a sub-par race was when he was stretched out over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Autumn. At the 7 furlong distance, the son of D’wildcat (winner of the 2001 Swale Stakes) is absolutely lethal. His typical race is to sit just off the early speed in around the 3rd position through the opening calls, and then motor out in front as the field turns for home, often pulling away in deep stretch. This is a classy horse, and one that typically makes a fairly strong post parade impression.
From a pace standpoint, it looks like GARY D could be the horse setting the early fractions. Longshots FEARLESS COWBOY and HEAR YE HEAR YE also have shown a bit of speed in previous races, although more recently they’ve attempted to relax just a bit in the early going. Regardless of who sets the pace, this race will be all about D’FUNNYBONE.
If you can’t stomach the 6/5 favoritism on D’FUNNYBONE, there are a couple of horses worth considering for the upset here. Todd Pletcher sends out IBBOYEE following a 3rd place finish to D’FUNNYBONE in the Hutcheson that saw him bumped at the start of the race. IBBOYEE fought back to finish 3rd, only beaten by 2 lengths. This is a horse who has won 3 stakes races, but had the misfortune of running into today’s rival in the Hutcheson and the highly regarded Medaglia d’Oro colt Laus Deo in the Count Fleet (January 10). If the son of Medalist can put it all together today, IBBOYEE rates a chance at pulling off the upset.
Another horse that looks somewhat interesting here is DIXIE BAND. The son of Dixie Union opened his career with 3 consecutive victories, including the Grade 3 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes last September in which he beat a decent horse in Piscitelli. The down side, of course, is that he’s been on the shelf since an extremely disappointing 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) at Keeneland.
Obviously something went wrong that race, and while he’s been training well for this race, I think we all learned last weekend just how rusty a horse can be coming off a 5-month layoff, as we watched in disbelief as the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra didn’t quite seem her usual lethal self in the New Orleans Ladies. Even so, my suspicion is that this is a classy horse and that he’ll run a decent race today.
As for the rest of the field, I think HEAR YE HEAR YE and SILVER CRAFT are worth considering when filling out your trifecta and superfecta tickets. Either of them could wind up hitting the board at 15/1 and bring some much needed value to your tickets. I’m also going to add in GARY D to my plays, just in case he does get loose on the lead.
Eleven horses have entered for the featured prep race of the day, including Todd Pletcher trainee Rule, who currently sits at #5 in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings. Due to the entry of “Barbaro’s little brother”, Lentenor, the odds on the tote board might get tilted a bit out of whack for this race, which could make it either more appealing or less appealing from a betting standpoint, depending on which way those winds end up blowing.
The field sets up like this:
#1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
#2 Lentenor (6/1)
#3 Pulsion (12/1)
#4 Pleasant Prince (15/1)
#5 Game On Dude (12/1)
#6 First Dude (8/1)
#7 Rule (5/2*)
#8 Ice Box (15/1)
#9 Miner’s Reserve (6/1)
#10 Best Actor (20/1)
#11 Radiohead (3/1)
RULE is the obvious horse to focus on here. Todd Pletcher’s runaway winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes blew away a seemingly talented horse in Schoolyard Dreams last out while wiring the field going 8.5 furlongs. Will an extra half furlong today make any difference? Those looking to defeat the son of Roman Ruler will have to hope so. What I’m more interested in is seeing whether Pletcher and jockey Johnny Velazquez can get the colt to relax a bit early on? So far the Kentucky Derby contendershave no shortage of speed and pace-pressing types, so a continued front running style might put him at a disadvantage come the first Saturday in May.
If he does want the lead, RULE might find he has some company today, due primarily to the entry of MINER’S RESERVE. Technically, RADIOHEAD is another who could be running right out of the gate, but I suspect they’ll try to relax the son of Johannesburg on the stretchout today.
Whichever way he goes, RULE is the obvious horse to beat, although evidently “the Dude abides” if you are going to take a shot and try to beat him.
Seriously, man, what’s with all the Dude named horses in here? If you’re as big a fan of The Big Lebowski as I am, you might have to take a shot on one of them based on who makes the stronger post parade impression. Both FIRST DUDE and GAME ON DUDE only recently graduated from the maiden ranks, although GAME ON DUDE does have experience against winners last out at the allowance level.
So what do we make of Barbaro’s brother, LENTENOR? Barbaro did use the Florida Derby as a stage to announce his Kentucky Derby candidacy, and obviously it would be the feel-good story of the week if LENTENOR were somehow able to pull off the upset. My sense of things is that the outpouring of affection for anything Barbaro related will cause LENTENOR’s odds to be lower than they should be. He’s a fine horse, and I think has every right to improve in this race in his first start on dirt. Still, he might be a horse worth rooting for, while allowing your wallet to go in a different direction. I give him a shot to the board, personally, but I’ll be mildly (and pleasantly, mind you) surprised if he does something more.
The longshot I’m really focused on is SOARING EMPIRE at 20/1. First of all, he’s an Empire Maker colt, and those tend to improve with each start and as the distances get longer. Secondly, this will be the 2nd start in his form cycle since his layoff at the end of 2009. That’s usually a time when horses can be expected to make significant improvements on the track. I also like that he comes from off-the-pace, and thus might stand to benefit if something crazy happens at the front of the pack. He tossed a bullet workout on March 14 in preparation for this race. Look for a big run today from a horse offering plenty of value on the tote board.
Another off-the-pace type to keep an eye on is ICE BOX. If you toss that last race where he ran into a monster (Esekendereya) and never really had a chance after blowing the start, this was an improving son of Pulpit for trainer Nick Zito. As we’ve mentioned before, this Kentucky Derby crop is in need of some closers stepping forward and securing starting spots in an effort to break up the potential speed fest we have approaching. ICE BOX has also been tossing bullet workouts in the mornings, and will be entering the equally as crucial 3rd start off of his 2009 ending layoff. I feel this horse is better than most people may think, and he was headed in the right direction prior to the Fountain of Youth. If he runs back to his prior form, he could be a player in here.
The chances of MINER’s REWARD might depend on what RULE does early on. If the two engage in a speed battle early on, look for SOARING EMPIRE and ICE BOX (among others) to be the primary beneficiaries. If, however, one or the other gets loose on the lead, well then I think we all know how dangerous they could be. This son of Mineshaft appears to be a talented colt, having put up impressive speed figure totals in his maiden breaker last out, but he also finds himself in the disadvantageous 9 hole today, and thus might be forced to push it more than his connections would prefer from early on.
BEST ACTOR is another who put up noteworthy speed figures last out, but note that he ran into a horse in Drosselmeyer in that race who ran rather flat in his next start. I’m not sure what to make of that performance? He’s been on the shelf since January, although the workout tab does look enticing since then. My hunch is that he’s a notch below the top horses in here, although I did love his father, Rock Hard Ten, and would love to see him move forward.
Finally we come to RADIOHEAD. He’s a creep. He’s a weirdo. What the hey is he doing here? He don’t belong here. Although, he does have a perfect body, and has a perfect soul. He wants us to notice when he’s not around. He’s so very special. I wish I was special.
Yes, the horse with the awesome name from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returns following an impressive allowance level victory last out here at Gulfstream, where he defeated a well thought of colt in Homeboykris. The question for Radiohead is whether he really is a creep that doesn’t belong here? In other words, will that “perfect body and perfect soul” allow him to get 9 furlongs on his best stuff? We’ll have to wait and see. The post position may not have helped the situation though, so I’m going to consider him a play against for the win honors at odds of 3/1. If those odds trend upwards, he could be worth considering, as I do think he’s a talented colt that has a shot here – I just don’t think 3/1 matches what I’m willing to accept from a risk/reward standpoint.
Selections:
#7 Rule (5/2*)
#1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
#8 Ice Box (15/1)
Best of luck to everyone – Up next will be a new edition of our Kentucky Derby rankings following this weekend’s races.
Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
Our third edition of the Derby watch list and the first time I think we may have definitively found our horse for the first Saturday in May. The past weekend saw the validation of two runners on our previous Kentucky Derby watch list that were absent from many others. My personal favorite and then #2 ranked horse Odysseus turned in an against-all-odds photo finish victory against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.
Would you believe that even the DRF Derby Watch List that came with the Saturday (3/13) edition of the Form didn’t have Odysseus listed in their top 20 horses? Big mistake. Granted, he had no graded stakes earnings at the time, but they had to know he was a player for the Tampa Bay Derby. Hopefully he gets some more respect this time around.
Our previous #10 horse, Sidney’s Candy also triumphed over such contenders as Interactif, American Lion, Dave in Dixie and Caracortado in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. Nice going Sidney! Way to reward my faith in you as one of the 3-year-olds to keep an eye on.
Everybody had Lookin at Lucky in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn, so that one comes as no surprise. Although the performance itself was as impressive as they come. This horse looks like the real deal to me.
So, in case you missed the action (what were you, living under a rock???), there’s a quick recap. Without further adieu, here’s our updated top 10 Kentucky Derby rankings as of 3/14/2010.
#1 Odysseus
It’s time to make the bold move and place my boy squarely in the top spot. Has he proved himself better than Lookin at Lucky or Eskendereya? Absolutely not. But this colt has heart and tremendous upside, and he reaffirmed everything I thought about him with that gutsy victory in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend. Everyone knows I’m a sucker for a good chestnut, and I’ve made no attempt to hide my affection for this colt ever since I first laid eyes on him back in mid-February. He’s my Derby horse. I know he’s green as can be in the stretch and looked like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I remember another chestnut named Curlin who looked green in the stretch at this point in his career as well. I’m not saying he’s Curlin by any stretch of the imagination, but then again I don’t think I’ve seen the likes of Street Sense or Hard Spun in this crop either, so he doesn’t have to be Curlin. Being Odysseus will suit him just fine. Up next might be the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3. Go get ‘em, Big Red horse!
#2 Lookin at Lucky
Baffert trained colt didn’t just come east and pass the dirt test, he overcame a trip from hell in the process to win a thrilling edition of the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008. Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race under him before the Kentucky Derby was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that good faith gamble. This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. Let’s just hope we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
#3 Eskendereya
Gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment on this update, dropping two spots from the top of the list in our last update. It’s through no fault of his own and certainly should not be interpreted as a sign of decreased confidence in the colt’s ability. It’s just that I’ve hitched my wagons to Odysseus and thought Lucky may have won the most improbable prep race of the season. There’s no shame in being #3. I’d still cover this guy as a win threat if the Kentucky Derby were tomorrow. The son of Giant’s Causeway justly rests on the top of many such watch lists, and you’ll hear no complaint from me with that ranking. Likely pointing to the Florida Derby.
#4 Awesome Act
Another horse that, like Odysseus last week, you won’t see ranked as aggressively on most Derby watch lists. He looked dominating in the Gotham, even if that wasn’t the toughest prep race we’ve ever seen. I won’t forgive myself all Triple Crown season for having publicly doubted this horse prior to that Gotham performance, and the impression he made on me was strong enough that I’ll continue to mention him as being my 2nd favorite horse on this list. I think he’s seriously underrated by folks that are discounting that Gotham victory. If he shows up in the Wood Memorial, it could pit my 2 favorite 3-year-olds against one another.
#5 Rule
The horse that has bounced up and down the list all season, looking for some place to fit in. I guess that’s kid of like a euphemism for his place in Todd Pletcher’s barn. Eskendereya has got to be the top dog that rules the roost, but it was quoted that Pletcher was looking for a Grade 1 immediately following his commanding victory in the Sam F. Davis. With Eskendereya possibly headed to the Florida Derby, that could mean Rule comes north and helps fill out a Wood Memorial field that could wind up extremely contentious.
#6 Discreetly Mine
Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some. He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents. I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, he could offer some value on the tote board. I’d also prefer to see him relax a bit early on.
#7 Conveyance
With the defeat of Caracortado in the San Felipe this weekend, Conveyance is the last of my infamous Cris Carter types that I’m so fond of. All he does is win horse races, and he came east and won a race on the dirt, so we can’t hold that against him. He may not be taking as glamorous a road to the Kentucky Derby as anyone else, and there are questions surrounding whether the son of Indian Charlie will get the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he gives Baffert some options as the major Grade 1 preps start to appear on the horizon.
#8 Sidney’s Candy
I’ve said all along that this could be “any kind of horse.” The son of Candy Ride got away with some soft fractions in the San Felipe and made a field of big named contenders pay for that mistake this past weekend. We’ll hear distance questions with this horse as well until they are definitively answered (Candy Rides not being known to be classic distance horses), but keep in mind that there’s an exception to every rule. Certainly can’t knock the horse for winning.
#9 Interactif
The biggest mover on the list who did not run a winning race last out. The son of Broken View gave Todd Pletcher and company another serious Derby contender with a very impressive finish in the San Felipe behind Sidney’s Candy. Versatile runner is effective on all dirt, turf, and synthetics. He made up at least two lengths on Sidney’s Candy in the stretch and lept of the screen for those viewing the race as one to keep an eye on.
#10 Noble’s Promise
Another non-winner who joins the list for the first time today. Finish just a head behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel at Oaklawn. This is a classy horse who has probably been under appreciated throughout the prep season thus far. As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and finished just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Robby Albarado teamed with the son of Cuvee for the Rebel, but everyone from Martinez to Bejarano to Mena to Desormeaux has been aboard before. I thought he ran a great race, and if not for an extremely valiant effort by Lookin at Lucky, we’d be looking at the Rebel winner here. For that alone he deserves consideration for a top 10 list.
Others to watch:
We continue to track a number of colts who did not make the top 10 list. Some notable horses include Connemara, Caracortado, Super Saver (ye’s, he’s on my honorable mention list now as I thought he looked good despite needing a race), Schoolyard Dreams, Jackson Bend, Dave in Dixie, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek. Of course there are others, and the list changes with each passing moment.
Hard to believe it, but next weekend is already Florida Derby time. We’ve also got the Swale lined up at well. Check back later in the week for updates on the major racing action ahead.
Odysseus - photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
From our vantage point, as the weekend draws to a close, the past 24 hours have been a whirlwind of mind-boggling activity. We stood and cheered as the undefeated Zenyatta imposed her will on the field of the Santa Margarita in Slow Cheetah style. We gasped in disbelief as our beloved Rachel Alexandra was collared in the stretch by the unheralded Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.
A roller-coaster of ups and downs that only now are we beginning to be able to put into proper context. Along the way we also caught a glimpse of some of the better 3-year-olds in the land as they continued their quest for all important graded stakes earnings in order to secure a starting spot in the 2010 Kentucky Derby.
Perhaps lost in the day’s excitement was the emergence of a lightly raced 3-year-old – Odysseus.
Author’s Note: For awesome-terrific dramatic effect, and you know I only break out the multisyllabic expressions like awesome-terrific when things are really awesome-terrific, this post is set to the lyrics of the song “When We Were Young” by The Killers.
Yes, I used this same song in the same fashion when Curlin’s retirement was announced. I think you’ll understand why I think it fits again here by the time you finish with this post. Besides, it’s a beautiful song, and I…we apologize for the duration of this italicized Author’s Note. Those responsible for its length have been sacked.
“You sit there in your heartache. Waiting on some beautiful boy to save you from your old ways. You play forgiveness. Watch it now, here it comes!”
If there’s one thing I simply can’t do with any sort of acumen (besides long division or picking the winners of turf sprints), it’s pick a Kentucky Derby horse. Each year amounts to amiserable suffering of ineptitude. Ever since Barbaro (in a year that I also gave out Bandini as a ‘must use’), my selections have been Curlin (07), Colonel John (08), and Quality Road (09, followed by I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire as the Derby scratches mounted).
Needless to say, my confidence in picking a Derby horse was effectively shattered. After all, despite having an eye for SOLID race horses, I was a big fat 0-3 in recent years in our most popular race, and my one winner in the last 4 campaigns (Barbaro) suffered a horrific career ending injury in my favorite race of the year – the Preakness!
Some folks would interpret this as a curse. Not me. Like some Hall & Oates song, I can’t help but feel we’ve been “so close, yet so far away.”
I really thought I had something that first time I saw Curlin in 2007 (turns out I was right about that overall, just not for the Derby). It was the morning after his victory in the Rebel. I hadn’t seen the race live. I don’t remember what it was that caused me to miss the race, but I vividly recall firing up the youtube replay. The subtitle to the video told me everything I hoped to see. Curlin had won.
I was only aware of the majestic chestnut through online whispers from folks who had seen his maiden victory. Watching the grainy replay that morning, my jaw hit the floor as he unleashed his giant strides and opened up a veritable can of whoop-ass on the field, pulling away to a 5 1/4 lengths victory in the 8.5 furlong Rebel in 1:44&3. Had he really beaten anyone? Hindsight would suggest not much, although the show horse Teuflesberg was the winner of the Southwest Stakes and would go on to win the Woody Stephens (Grade 2) at Belmont.
Fast forward to this year. Odysseus made his first appearance against winners on February 17 at Tampa Bay, beating allowance foes by 15 lengths and travelling 8.5 furlongs in 1:44&1. Once again, by virtue of being at work that Wednesday afternoon, I had missed the race live. It wasn’t until I got home and heard folks mentioning the impressive victory that I went back to check things out for myself. Imagine my surprise then when this chestnut beauty caught my eyes. I had to pinch myself in disbelief. I know Square Eddie got a lot of publicity for being called “baby Curlin” last year, but in one race Odysseus had proven to me that he was much closer to a true “baby Curlin” than Square Eddie ever was.
Here he was, the horse I had been looking for all year.
“Can we climb this mountain? I don’t know. Higher now than ever before. I know we can make it we take it slow. Let’s take it easy. Easy now, watch him go!”
Will he make it all the way to the Kentucky Derby and have a chance in the run for the roses? Only time will tell. I think we all know that anything can happen between now and the first Saturday in May. For now Padua Stables and trainer Thomas Albertrani will be taking it the proverbial “one day at a time.” I’m certain that they too are starting to feel like they may have something special here. Let’s face it though, he’s also as green as can be in the stretch. It almost felt like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby. Maybe he was just toying with the field, but if so than even he had to be worried as he raced to the wire along with Schoolyard Dreams. The amazing thing about the victory was that most horses would’ve given up. You don’t often see horses re-rally like that in the stretch.
His “watch him go” moment was when he darted to the inside, just before the call “Odysseus is running again!”
“We’re burning down the highway skyline on the back of a hurricane that started turning when you were young.”
I’ve always thought that was the most beautiful line of the entire song, and the most fitting for a horse racing post. In fact, it’s probably that line that continually leads me back to this song for repeated references. Either that or the hours spent playing the album version on Guitar Hero and Rock Band, but I digress.
Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
“We’re burning down the highway skyline, on the back of a hurricane.”
That has to capture a bit of what jockey Rajiv Maragh is feeling as he pilots the son of Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) into the turn. think about it. Rajiv’s been aboard him for all 4 lifetime races. They are a team now. They know each other. So much so that despite being given up on by everyone (including, I’ll admit it, even me) as the field entered the stretch for the Tampa Bay Derby, Odysseus still had something he wanted say about the matter. You’ve gotta love that he can gut out the close victories. Anyone can blow an inferior field away by open lengths – but gutting out those photo finish, final head bob victories are what really separates the men from the boys. Especially this time of year.
There’s something else though, and it relates to the hurricane reference. Hurricanes are noted for their speed and destructive power of their damaging winds. Odysseus definitely has speed, and he’s certainly got a powerful stride that helps him get where he needs to be in the stretch. He’s a bit wild and uncontrollable – but devastating when unleashed. Rather like the wind of a hurricane.
“And sometimes you close your eyes and see the place where you used to live. When you were young.”
I’m sure that no matter where the winds of fate may blow Odysseus (his namesake in Greek literature having been unable to reach the shores of Ithaca following the Trojan War for 10 full years), that in the back of his mind he’ll always be able to picture the winner’s circle at Tampa Bay Downs. He might’ve broken his maiden at Gulfstream Park, but Tampa Bay is where he put it all together and announced to the world that he was a 3-year-old worth watching. Much like Curlin did at Oaklawn Park in the spring of 2007.
Up next is reportedly a possible entry in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Saturday, April 3. His graded stakes earnings now stand at $180,000, enough to put him inside the top 20 overall, but probably still in need of additional money if he wants to secure a starting spot for the Derby.
Personally, while I’d obviously love to see my “Derby horse” actually make the Kentucky Derby field, I’ll admit that the race I really want to see him in is the Preakness, since I’ll be there for that one live.
If he does get into the Derby though, then he might need to close his eyes and remember that most recent performance at Tampa Bay. He showed he can navigate traffic, which will be crucial in the 20 horse field at Churchill Downs. He also showed he’s got heart to go along with his natural abilities, and based on what I’ve seen from this colt, I have no trouble making him my top dog.
I haven’t been this excited about a big red 3-year-old since, well,you know who.
Go get ‘em Big Red! You’re my boy, Odysseus!
And in true Jerry McGuire style, I’ve got to ask…
Who’s coming with us?
Who’s hopping aboard the Odysseus bandwagon with me? Our next station stop is Chruchill Downs, by way of Aqueduct (or so it seems for the moment). There’s room for everyone where we’re going.
All aboard!
Coincidentally, if you are with me on this horse, I’vestarted a fan group for him over on Facebook. It seemed like the right time to do so. Come join us if you are so inclined.
I’d also like to give special mention to Natalie Keller Reinert for the amazing photographs of Odysseus from the Tampa Bay Derby. If you like the photos, please give her blog a visit at: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
“Were these things real or are they but the vagaries of mine own imagination?”
- Private Sam Watkins, Company Aytch (H), 1st Tennessee Volunteers
Unbelievable: the word captures the feelings still percolating among the masses as they continue to deal with the unanticipated defeat of the 2009 Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, at the hands of the relatively unknown Zardana in her first start of the 2010 season. The word also describes how fans felt who watched as the defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, Zenyatta, appeared trapped at the top of the stretch for the Santa Margarita, as the undefeated daughter of Street Cry was forced to duck inside and do some dirty work from down along the rail before pulling off in typical Slow Cheetah style.
To be certain, there were numerous players who thought either horse might be worth playing against, but I’m sure in their hearts they fully expected both champions to prevail. As we’ve been reminded countless times in the last 24 hours, Rachel Alexandra becomes the first defending Horse of the Year in the last 10 attempts to lose her debut race the following campaign. Of course, we also know that most great horses eventually lose – including greats like Kelso and Secretariat. The trouble is, for Rachel at least, that her rival, Zenyatta, doesn’t lose. She almost did once to Anaaba’s Creation, in what would’ve been an equally upsetting, well, upset, but found a way to gut out a win.
Let there be no mistake about it: Zenyatta is the best horse on the planet. It’s not even open for debate anymore at this point in time.
That’s not to say I’m taking anything away from Rachel Alexandra. Far from it. Unlike the throngs of absolutely classless Zenyatta fans (oh yeah, I’m calling YOU OUT if you were one…if you weren’t then please don’t take offense) who actually cheered that Rachel was losing. The living embodiment of the words “classless” and “disgusting.” I can only assume that in their adolescent minds this Saturday’s race was some sort ofreferendum on the 2009 Horse of the Year voting. It wasn’t, as anyone with an IQ over 40 understands. 2009 was about 2009, and that issue has been settled and debated to death.
Seriously, I wasn’t there to see it firsthand and so don’t want to spend a lot of time talking about it, but both folks on TVG and Twitter reported that fans at Santa Anita were “cheering” and “celebrating” Rachel’s defeat. I hold out hope that these reports are untrue or were grossly misrepresented and/or taken out of context. If, however, you were among those doing so – shame on you. SHAME!!!!!! Nothing but shame, and eternal shame! Just absolutely Wal-Mart trailer-trashified if you ask me.
Suffice to say that these reports were received as absolutely sickening by just about anyone with a pulse outside of California. This ranks right up there with Eagles fans booing Santa Clause and cheering the injury of Cowboys receiver Michael Irvin. The only way it’s excusable, in my mind, is if those cheering had wagered serious cash on Zardana to pull the upset. If that’s the case – yes, you have every reason to erupt in celebration. Something tells me though that was not the driving force behind the episode.
Ironically, it was during the stretch run of Zenyatta’s victory just minutes later that we were publicly admonished by the Santa Anita track announcer “if you don’t have goosebumps now, you’re not a fan of horse racing!”
Really?????
Taken on its own merit, I fully agree with the sentiment of the statement. The timing of its delivery though, coming hot off the heels of thereports of Santa Anita fans rejoicing and celebrating at Rachel Alexandra’s downfall, could not have been worse. It left many perplexed as to just where in the hell anyone associated with Santa Anita would get off thinking they had any wiggle room to lecture the rest of us as to how “real fans” of horse racing ought to think, feel, or act.
What’s next, Nancy Pelosi telling us we need to be more fiscally responsible? Michael Vick chastising us over how we treat our pets? Octomom offering crtitical reviews of our parental skills (or lack thereof)?
The whole thing was laughable at best, if not somewhat aggravating.
Most “real fans” I know were pulling heavily for both horses to win. Obviously some self-described fans of one horse (but not the other) actually hate the “other side.” This is unfortunate and not something I subscribe to in our sport, but I suppose it’s what happens with great rivalries. No doubt many Ali fans despised Frazier. Yankee and Red Sox fans aren’t known for their cordial demeanor to one another. I think I detest Sidney Crosby (just a bit) for scoring that overtime goal in the Gold Medal game of the 2010 Winer Olympics to defeat Team USA in overtime. Obviously there’s the Bama/Auburn rivalry I was born into. And of course, I’ve never found room in my heart to forgive either the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates or the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays for crushing the hopes and dreams of my beloved Baltimore Orioles.
So yes, I get it – and I know many folks just have trouble containing their emotions and displaying “the better angels of our nature” when they are flushed with either victory or defeat. It does makes it extremely hard for those who identify themselves as Rachel fans to even be able to cheer for Zenyatta at all (though I concede that if Saturday’s results were the other way around, I might be penning admonishing words to Rachel fans for behaving in classless fashion towards Zenyatta fans, so I digress).
I guess I’m a poster child for this phenomenon/dichotomy/conundrum. Perennially torn between both factions. Zenyatta was a horse I fell in love with on paper in her maiden race, and then followed closely here as she progressed up the ranks. BEFORE the great masses who exist now had showed up. I remember screaming from the rooftops when she won her allowance victory that she was a “future Grade 1 winner, at least” (with the “at least” part suggesting the sky was the limit for her). Turns out that suspicion was correct and that she’s not just a Grade 1 winner, but an undefeated Classic winner who is every bit a champion and then some.
Then Rachel came along. A once-in-a-lifetime 3-year-old that broke hundreds of years of historical precedence every time she took to the track. Her 2009 campaign, despite all of the recent bashing from “haters” who are coming out of the woodworks in droves now, was a thing of beauty. No 3-year-old filly had ever achieved such a distinguished mark of races won. Was she ever better than Zenyatta? In hindsight, I don’t think so, but see – that’s where most fans get caught up. They mistakenly assume that “Horse of the Year” should be bestowed upon whomever would likely win a theoretical race between the competitors. It’s not about that. It’s about who had the better overall campaign.
I maintain that a slightly more aggressive campaign with Zenyatta in 2009 would’ve locked up Horse of the Year. She certainly had the race of the year, but for months while Zenyatta was barely in the news, Rachel was shattering history at numerous tracks. Oh well. At this point in time folks have heard it all before, so it’s not like anything I type is going to change anyone’s mind. Everyone’s an expert – and everyone knows better than the Eclipse Award voters….yet everyone cowered like frightened schoolgirls when we suggested opening up the voting process to the public (far easier to sit back and criticize whatever happens in the voting from a safe distance, I suppose).
So where do we go from here?
Well, it all depends on how Rachel Alexandra returns from the race. Personally, I don’t think she looked ready to take on Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom. I can’t imagine Jess Jackson will send her. I know she’s been off for 6 months, and that her training schedule wasn’t ideal, and she “needed a race”, but it would seem only those with extreme hubris or a personal lust to see her throttled on the big stage would dare put her in a race against Zenyatta now.
I wonder…if Rachel is scratched from the Apple Blossom, how many of those Zenyatta fans that actually cheered for Rachel’s defeat, and who also hold tickets for Oaklawn, will piss and moan about being “cheated” ? That would be priceless! One can only hope they take a healthy dose of egg on their face in some fashion.
That’s what I never understood about this situation. Even if you are the most diehard Zenyatta fan and the most rabid of Rachel bashers – you should’ve been pulling for victories by both horses on Saturday. That would’ve only hyped the Apple Blossom even more, and made any victory over the other horse all the more celebrated. Just as the call for the Santa Margarita implored “if you don’t have goosebumps now, you don’t like horse racing” - well, guess what Californians – right back at you. If you weren’t pulling for both horses, you don’t like horse racing. Period.
I equate this to what I go through during SEC football season. I’m a diehard Crimson Tide fan. I HATE Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida with a passion (to the extent that the color orange actually can make me physically ill) – yet you best believe yourself that I’d prefer to face all of those teams when they are undefeated rather than in some weakened state fresh off a humbling defeat. Anyone remember last year’s SEC Championship game? What made beating the Florida Gators in that game so special was that they were the undefeated, defending national champions – not some weakened foe that many saw as a “paper tiger.”
In fact, there’s a direct comparison we can draw between that SEC Championship Game and the supposed cheering of Santa Anita fans as Rachel was defeated by Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.
In the final minutes of Alabama’s romp over Florida, the big screen at the Georgia Dome flashed an image of Gators quarterback Tim Tebow crying on the sidelines. The stadium, and most Alabama fans erupted in joy. I’ll admit – for a fleeting moment I smiled, thinking of Alabama’s motto (“make their ass quit!!!”). As such, I think I can relate to what “Zenyatta fans” (those who are exclusively Zenyatta fans rather than fans of both horses) must’ve experienced the past year. Every news broadcast, every College Gameday presentation – all were filled with references to “Gators this” and “Tebow that.” Most announcers seemed to have an unnatural Tebow-fetish. To defeat him on such a big stage was euphoric, if not outright epic.
Within minutes though, I was posting this to Florida fans across the net:
“Hold your heads high, Gator fans. You’ve got nothing to be ashamed of. We know damn well it’s you we’ll have to face next year, and the year after that (and so on) if we want to repeat as SEC champs. While I’m celebrating this victory with everything I’ve got, please know from one SEC fan to another that it pains me to see your magnificent quarterback reduced to tears of defeat. He’s a warrior, and that’s not the way he deserves to go out. Pick those heads up and go knock the tar out of folks in the Sugar Bowl! We’ll see you next year for another epic conference championship.”
Man, what I wouldn’t give to see ONE classy comment from a self-proclaimed Zenyatta fan (and non Rachel fan) out there, if only to reinforce my general belief in humanity that normally defines me. Sadly, all I hear so far is “nah-nah-boo-booing”, which while infinitely entertaining for children under the ages of 5, tends to get old to the rest of us pretty fast.
Wow…this far into the article and I’ve barely got to talk about the races themselves.
Zenyatta’s move was remarkable. Much like Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier in the day, it looked for a moment when Mike Smith sent her to the inside that the unthinkable was about to repeat itself. She seemed to have nowhere to go. Luckily some room did open up, and she began to extend those amazon-esque strides when she needed to, inhaling everything in her path. In fact, it almost seemed like someone reminded Dance to My Tune (the off-the-charts longshot who would’ve won, had Zenyatta not caught her) that she wasn’t supposed to win.
Amazing performance? You betcha. But, if I can say one thing – Dance to My Tune had not finished in an exacta since 2008. I’m just sayin’ – we’ve seen Zenyatta beat the best before, and this field certainly was one she was supposed to toy with.
Of course, so was Rachel in the New Orleans Ladies. I actually thought, despite the contentious pace setup on paper, that we’d see more of a Mother Goose style performance rating off the pace and then exploding in the turn. Instead it looked like Calvin Borel was fighting her a bit early in an effort to keep her relaxed, and that she simply had nothing in the tank for the final 16th of a mile when she needed it the most.
Anyone doubt that we could“Take Back Saturday” now (if we’d just get our butts in gear)? Temper a bit of the excitement with the fact that the majority of those “NTRA” searches were from folks like yours truly in mad, rabid bids to attempt to access the promised “LIVE streaming video” that the NTRA absolutely choked on delivering. So much so that I actually felt embarrassed for having spent energy broadcasting to folks all over the internet that the live streaming was supposed to be available.
There they were – no doubt in greater numbers than anyone (including me) had anticipated. Real fans – the kind of fans who go out of there way to organize an entire day around the haphazard channel and multi-media surfing we force them into, if only to catch a fleeting glimpse of our future stars. Real fans – ones who don’t need to quantify the validity of their fanship by categorizing the physical reactions of their epidermis in response to unfolding situations on the track, and who aren’t participating in orgies of celebration over the downfall of a perceived foe. Real fans – folks who just love horse racing. We had them – and we failed to deliver.
Alex Waldrop has already issued a public apology on the matter. Look, I know folks will snicker and laugh, but I’m glad he’s done so. The situation was utterly unacceptable and displayed everything that’s been so damn frustrating for those of us that tirelessly try to promote this game. We aren’t paid marketing staff. We aren’t on anyone’s salary list. We work day jobs, raise families, and spend significant portions of our “home time” thinking up ideas to promote the sport and then firing off posts hoping to attract someone from out there in the vast expanse of the internet. And then, just when we’re on the cusp of making a monumental turning point – we’re failed by technology and those who promised us they had our backs.
It’s disheartening – but having met the folks from the NTRA, I’m satisfied that they understand this can never happen again. I know they are racing fans at heart and I’m sure they are angered that this didn’t go off as planned. Alex is a stand-up guy and issuing a public apology to the enraged masses (heck, even I dropped an “f-bomb” about the situation over on Twitter. I’m only human – and I was PISSED) was the right thing to do. He didn’t waste any time in doing so, either – nor did he fill it with political or party-line mumbo jumbo. Just “straight-up”, we screwed up, we apologize, we’ll fix it. I respect that approach. Now let’s just make darn sure we deliver on that promise next time through. NO EXCUSES!
If yesterday taught us anything it’s that we’ve go what it takes to turn some heads with our marquee racing action on a Saturday afternoon. Kudos to the folks behind the Santa Anita operation that actually got the Santa Margarita broadcast LIVE on ESPN News. That was a much needed pick-me-up following the New Orleans Ladies debacle. Remember folks – accessibility/availability is the first and most crucial component towards growing the sport. ”People will come” – but we have to tell them where to go. :)
As for the other races on the day? How ’boutmy boy Odysseus!!!
Who wants on the bandwagon now? Left for dead as the field turned for home in the Tampa Bay Derby, somehow he rallied to fight his way into an EPIC photo finish with Schoolyard Dreams. No matter how many times you watch this replay, it still seems unfathomable that he got there – but he did! Suffice to say, he validated my aggressivetop 5 placement in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings, as did Lookin’ at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy (currently my #10 horse). I also thought Interactif looked “hella” good running second behind Sidney’s Candy. We’ll have our updated Kentucky Derby rankings posted shortly.
It’s no surprise to those who come here often that I tend to get a bit “pumped up” on big time racing days. No speech in the history of mankind does the trick in terms of getting the mind ready for these days more than the rousing St. Crispin’s Day speech delivered by HenryV as the “poor starved band” of English prepared to receive their French host at Agincourt.
This actually began with a bit of wine-induced posting over on Ernie Munick’sFacebook page, and then over on theTVG Community. This isn’t the first time I’ve offered a (bad) paraphrase of the speech in an attempt to capture the moment. These, my friends, are the days we live for! Take Back Saturday!!! Rachel and Zenyatta!!!!!
Don’t forget, if you can’t get the races live on television, the NTRA will be offering LIVE video streaming of BOTH races at www.ntra.com.
And so, I humbly present the following, in honor of the return of Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita and Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies.
“Proclaim it, racing fans through my host.
That he who hath no stomach to this race,
may he depart.
His passport shall be made and crowns for convoy placed in his purse.
We would not cheer in that mans company, who fears his fellowship to cheer our girls home.
They call this race the New Orleans Ladies.
And she, who wins tomorrow and comes safe home,
will stand a tip-toe when this day is named, and rouse him at the name of Rachel.
And she who shall win this day, at Santa Anita,
will yearly, on the vigil, feast her neighbors,
And say ‘tomorrow is Santa Margarita.”
Then will she strip her saddle and show her scars,
and say ‘these wounds I had on St. Margarita Day.”
All fans forget, and all shall be forgot,
but she’ll remember, with advantages what FEATS she did that day!
Then shall their names, familiar in our mouths as household words:
Zenyatta, the Classic champion
Rachel, the Horse of the Year
Be in our flowing cups freshly remembered.
These stories, shall the good fan teach his son!!!
And Saturday shall ne’er go bye,
from this day, to the ENDING OF THE WORLD,
but they in it shall be remembered.
These happy two. This band of sisters.
For any filly or mare who races for us this day shall be our daughter. Be she ne’er so vile. This day shall gentle her condition.
And racing fans in horsedom shall think themselves a-CURSED they were not here,
and hold their MANHOODS CHEAP,
whilst any speaks -
who watched with us…….upon this Saturday!!!!”
Now bestow yourself, loyal fans, for our ladies are bravely in their battles set and shall with all expedience race before us!
Go, brave horses, race away, and as thou pleasest all, WIN THE DAY!!!!!
By the way, since I didn’t post any handicapping picks this weekend, here’s a quick 50-cent Pick 4 for Tampa Bay starting in the Hillsborough (Race 8).
1,4,6 with 3,6 with 2,4,6,9 with 6,7
Should be a $24 play. Even though Odysseus is my boy, I had to add in Super Saver so as not to avoid getting “Pletchered” again here. I also think Charly and Schoolyard Dreams make some sense in the Tampa Bay Derby, but my gut tells me Odysseus and Super Saver are the best horses in this race.
Best of luck to all! We’ll close with an awesome video that started making it’s rounds a few days ago. Remember the famed “keyboard cat” of youtube fame? Behold: the next generation.
Play ‘em off for me, Keyboard Cat!
Hells yeah. I could get used to that! Boo-boo. Boo-boo-boo-BOO-boo (meow)
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