As the unstoppable procession towards the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby continues, we find ourselves at an important crossroads with significant Grade 1 earnings on the line in the Florida Derby.
Several horses have used the Florida Derby as an important step along the way to eventual victory on the first Saturday in May, including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001). Additionally, the Grade 2 Swale Stakes will also offer an opportunity for horses in need of graded stakes earnings as they attempt to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Our top 10 lists have been fluctuating from week to week. The question that remains to be answered now is who will step forward this weekend and demand that we take notice? We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking first at the Swale Stakes.
Grade 2 Swale Stakes – Gulfstream Park Race 10 (5:45 PM ET)
The Swale Stakes isn’t one of the more glamorous Kentucky Derby prep races, as it is only contested over a distance of 7 furlongs. Still, nine horses have entered in the $150,000 race, headlined by the Rick Dutrow trained D’funnybone; winner of the Grade 2 Hutcheson last out. The field sets up like this:
- #1 Here Ye Hear Ye (15/1)
- #2 Silver Craft (15/1)
- #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
- #4 City Trooper (6/1)
- #5 Fearless Cowboy (10/1)
- #6 Dixie Band (6/1)
- #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
- #8 Gary D (12/1)
- #9 Privilaged (20/1)
D’FUNNYBONE is deserving of the morning line favoritism. The only time we’ve ever seen this horse turn in a sub-par race was when he was stretched out over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Autumn. At the 7 furlong distance, the son of D’wildcat (winner of the 2001 Swale Stakes) is absolutely lethal. His typical race is to sit just off the early speed in around the 3rd position through the opening calls, and then motor out in front as the field turns for home, often pulling away in deep stretch. This is a classy horse, and one that typically makes a fairly strong post parade impression.
From a pace standpoint, it looks like GARY D could be the horse setting the early fractions. Longshots FEARLESS COWBOY and HEAR YE HEAR YE also have shown a bit of speed in previous races, although more recently they’ve attempted to relax just a bit in the early going. Regardless of who sets the pace, this race will be all about D’FUNNYBONE.
If you can’t stomach the 6/5 favoritism on D’FUNNYBONE, there are a couple of horses worth considering for the upset here. Todd Pletcher sends out IBBOYEE following a 3rd place finish to D’FUNNYBONE in the Hutcheson that saw him bumped at the start of the race. IBBOYEE fought back to finish 3rd, only beaten by 2 lengths. This is a horse who has won 3 stakes races, but had the misfortune of running into today’s rival in the Hutcheson and the highly regarded Medaglia d’Oro colt Laus Deo in the Count Fleet (January 10). If the son of Medalist can put it all together today, IBBOYEE rates a chance at pulling off the upset.
Another horse that looks somewhat interesting here is DIXIE BAND. The son of Dixie Union opened his career with 3 consecutive victories, including the Grade 3 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes last September in which he beat a decent horse in Piscitelli. The down side, of course, is that he’s been on the shelf since an extremely disappointing 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) at Keeneland.
Obviously something went wrong that race, and while he’s been training well for this race, I think we all learned last weekend just how rusty a horse can be coming off a 5-month layoff, as we watched in disbelief as the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra didn’t quite seem her usual lethal self in the New Orleans Ladies. Even so, my suspicion is that this is a classy horse and that he’ll run a decent race today.
As for the rest of the field, I think HEAR YE HEAR YE and SILVER CRAFT are worth considering when filling out your trifecta and superfecta tickets. Either of them could wind up hitting the board at 15/1 and bring some much needed value to your tickets. I’m also going to add in GARY D to my plays, just in case he does get loose on the lead.
Selections:
- #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
- #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
- #6 Dixie Band (6/1)
Grade 1 Florida Derby – Gulfstream Park Race 11 (6:20 PM ET)
Eleven horses have entered for the featured prep race of the day, including Todd Pletcher trainee Rule, who currently sits at #5 in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings. Due to the entry of “Barbaro’s little brother”, Lentenor, the odds on the tote board might get tilted a bit out of whack for this race, which could make it either more appealing or less appealing from a betting standpoint, depending on which way those winds end up blowing.
The field sets up like this:
- #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
- #2 Lentenor (6/1)
- #3 Pulsion (12/1)
- #4 Pleasant Prince (15/1)
- #5 Game On Dude (12/1)
- #6 First Dude (8/1)
- #7 Rule (5/2*)
- #8 Ice Box (15/1)
- #9 Miner’s Reserve (6/1)
- #10 Best Actor (20/1)
- #11 Radiohead (3/1)
RULE is the obvious horse to focus on here. Todd Pletcher’s runaway winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes blew away a seemingly talented horse in Schoolyard Dreams last out while wiring the field going 8.5 furlongs. Will an extra half furlong today make any difference? Those looking to defeat the son of Roman Ruler will have to hope so. What I’m more interested in is seeing whether Pletcher and jockey Johnny Velazquez can get the colt to relax a bit early on? So far the Kentucky Derby contenders have no shortage of speed and pace-pressing types, so a continued front running style might put him at a disadvantage come the first Saturday in May.
If he does want the lead, RULE might find he has some company today, due primarily to the entry of MINER’S RESERVE. Technically, RADIOHEAD is another who could be running right out of the gate, but I suspect they’ll try to relax the son of Johannesburg on the stretchout today.
Whichever way he goes, RULE is the obvious horse to beat, although evidently “the Dude abides” if you are going to take a shot and try to beat him.
Seriously, man, what’s with all the Dude named horses in here? If you’re as big a fan of The Big Lebowski as I am, you might have to take a shot on one of them based on who makes the stronger post parade impression. Both FIRST DUDE and GAME ON DUDE only recently graduated from the maiden ranks, although GAME ON DUDE does have experience against winners last out at the allowance level.
So what do we make of Barbaro’s brother, LENTENOR? Barbaro did use the Florida Derby as a stage to announce his Kentucky Derby candidacy, and obviously it would be the feel-good story of the week if LENTENOR were somehow able to pull off the upset. My sense of things is that the outpouring of affection for anything Barbaro related will cause LENTENOR’s odds to be lower than they should be. He’s a fine horse, and I think has every right to improve in this race in his first start on dirt. Still, he might be a horse worth rooting for, while allowing your wallet to go in a different direction. I give him a shot to the board, personally, but I’ll be mildly (and pleasantly, mind you) surprised if he does something more.
The longshot I’m really focused on is SOARING EMPIRE at 20/1. First of all, he’s an Empire Maker colt, and those tend to improve with each start and as the distances get longer. Secondly, this will be the 2nd start in his form cycle since his layoff at the end of 2009. That’s usually a time when horses can be expected to make significant improvements on the track. I also like that he comes from off-the-pace, and thus might stand to benefit if something crazy happens at the front of the pack. He tossed a bullet workout on March 14 in preparation for this race. Look for a big run today from a horse offering plenty of value on the tote board.
Another off-the-pace type to keep an eye on is ICE BOX. If you toss that last race where he ran into a monster (Esekendereya) and never really had a chance after blowing the start, this was an improving son of Pulpit for trainer Nick Zito. As we’ve mentioned before, this Kentucky Derby crop is in need of some closers stepping forward and securing starting spots in an effort to break up the potential speed fest we have approaching. ICE BOX has also been tossing bullet workouts in the mornings, and will be entering the equally as crucial 3rd start off of his 2009 ending layoff. I feel this horse is better than most people may think, and he was headed in the right direction prior to the Fountain of Youth. If he runs back to his prior form, he could be a player in here.
The chances of MINER’s REWARD might depend on what RULE does early on. If the two engage in a speed battle early on, look for SOARING EMPIRE and ICE BOX (among others) to be the primary beneficiaries. If, however, one or the other gets loose on the lead, well then I think we all know how dangerous they could be. This son of Mineshaft appears to be a talented colt, having put up impressive speed figure totals in his maiden breaker last out, but he also finds himself in the disadvantageous 9 hole today, and thus might be forced to push it more than his connections would prefer from early on.
BEST ACTOR is another who put up noteworthy speed figures last out, but note that he ran into a horse in Drosselmeyer in that race who ran rather flat in his next start. I’m not sure what to make of that performance? He’s been on the shelf since January, although the workout tab does look enticing since then. My hunch is that he’s a notch below the top horses in here, although I did love his father, Rock Hard Ten, and would love to see him move forward.
Finally we come to RADIOHEAD. He’s a creep. He’s a weirdo. What the hey is he doing here? He don’t belong here. Although, he does have a perfect body, and has a perfect soul. He wants us to notice when he’s not around. He’s so very special. I wish I was special.
Yes, the horse with the awesome name from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returns following an impressive allowance level victory last out here at Gulfstream, where he defeated a well thought of colt in Homeboykris. The question for Radiohead is whether he really is a creep that doesn’t belong here? In other words, will that “perfect body and perfect soul” allow him to get 9 furlongs on his best stuff? We’ll have to wait and see. The post position may not have helped the situation though, so I’m going to consider him a play against for the win honors at odds of 3/1. If those odds trend upwards, he could be worth considering, as I do think he’s a talented colt that has a shot here – I just don’t think 3/1 matches what I’m willing to accept from a risk/reward standpoint.
Selections:
- #7 Rule (5/2*)
- #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
- #8 Ice Box (15/1)
Best of luck to everyone – Up next will be a new edition of our Kentucky Derby rankings following this weekend’s races.
Cut and Dry as i scramble to finish handicapping FG:
Swale: D’funnybone, Fearless Cowboy, Dixie Band
Florida Derby: Exact same as yours.
Bonus pick (If you see this in time): Gulf Race 9: #9 Almoradi
I really like D’Funnybone, he seems to slowly be working his way towards the top of his crop. Hopefully the connections don’t pass on going to the Derby if he wins today.
I’m not sure if Rule can carry his speed in the Florida Derby, but if they get him to rate it’s his race to lose. I’m rooting for Lentenor!
It’s been so gorgeous outside, we haven’t come back in yet since morning. I’m probably only going to watch the prep races today. Just too incredible out there not to take advantage of it. Especially with the winter we’ve had.
Brian – you know we get a shot to see D’funnybone in the Preakness if all goes to plan.
Tencent – Yes!!! So you like Soaring Empire as well? Might be biting off a tad more than he can chew here, but I’ll roll the dice at 20/1.
I was a big Empire Maker fan when he ran years ago. Soaring Empire may like the longer distance. I never seen him yet. Beyer figures are a bit low though so far. I hope he does good today.
I had written that three horses who came back from a layup with a peak effort in 2010 were all liable to regress: a) Soaring Empire b) Rule c) Radiohead.
When all three run subpar races this is the kind of race results that transpires.
I’d watch for all three of these to come back after a month of rest.
While Radiohead also endured a wide trip, I think Soaring Empire is definitely feeling the ill-effects from playing catch-up all winter long. I look forward to their return up north.
[...] [...]
Two points for the ice cold exacta with D’FUNNYBONE and IBOYEE… Three points for inlcuding ICE BOX at a price as a logical contender.
Next week’s Derby preps picks:
Lane’s End: Connemara
Louisiana Derby: Drosselmeyer
Sunland Derby: Endorsement
“PP’s? PP’s? We don’t need no stinkin PP’s!”
Already amending the Lane’s End, as I did not know that Kettle River was being pointed to the race. Will have to ponder this further.
[...] Several weeks ago, you may recall the unmitigated disaster that was the NTRA”s attempt to offer live video streaming of the 2010 debuts of the sports’ biggest stars; Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. But you know what? Lost in the shuffle and all the boo-hooing bloggers like myself did in the immediate aftermath was the fact that the NTRA actually rose from the ashes of that disaster like a proverbial Phoenix and wound up delivering a presentation that, at least in my humble estimation, was a quality broadcast whilst covering the Grade 1 Florida Derby. [...]
I told you people LAST WEEK. it’s your own fault if you didn’t cash.
[...] Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week before. Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End [...]
[...] Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week prior. Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End [...]
In the horse racing world there is a ton of information and different systems available to improve handicapping. Throughout years of reading and research the only true way to become very successful at handicapping boils down to 3 key principles. With knowledge, the ability to adapt to different situations, and discipline to do the work spending time on your selections you will dominate any track you come across. There are so many factors that can affect any given race that some races you can look at a hundred different times and still be dumbfounded.
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