The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes
Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us. After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections. As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!
We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes). You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway. Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!
Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs
The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day. It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.
- #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting. His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
- #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out. If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
- #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races. His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens. Expect improvement.
Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.
- #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition. Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
- #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver. Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back. On his best stuff he makes sense here.
- #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race. Working like he wants to make amends.
Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes. It’s a Baltimore thing.
- #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
- #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race. Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
- #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at. Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.
Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win. In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion. That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan. I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff. I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.
- #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska. Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
- #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
- #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.
Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint. The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff. Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw. The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday. That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.
- #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field. The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
- #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
- #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.
Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis. I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness. Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics. Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).
- #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field. He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch. He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
- #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out. Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
- #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother! He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole. Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?
Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here. Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007? We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.
Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here. Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer. Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire. Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago). Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.
As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!
Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more. If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.
- #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose. Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
- #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
- #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
- #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him. Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
- #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber. Light it up, baby. Light up that tote board. Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!
Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote. Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.
Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!
And it will be sunny there tomorrow!
I am getting ready for the World Cup. It starts June 11th. It is only every four years so I get excited about it.
Hi Kevin. It’s been a while since I visited your blog because I moved to Florida and haven’t had much spare time on my hands. Glad to see your blog is still doing well.
I went to the derby again this year. I hit the exacta sort of… I bet Backtalk and Awesome Act, the last and next to last finishers. Our Awesome Act was lame and I assume Backtalk had a similar excuse. I plan to hit the real exacta tomorrow with $100 on Lookin at Lucky over Super Saver. I really think they are standouts in this field. Lookin at Lucky will have to have another bad trip for him to be denied again. He should be the horse going for the triple crown! Poor Calvin is going to be facing the same questions he did when he lost to Curlin (no he did not make his move too early.) Once again the loss won’t be his fault. He’ll just get beat by the better horse.
“If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.”
He looks slow. Leparoux is on Pleasant Prince…got caught late by Ice box in Florida (twice)…shows activity every 2 weeks since and will be a fresh horse having run on the wrong surface and/or distance last 2. He went for a premium price in his first 2 starts.
“Caracortado would seem to be the logical non-Derby starter”
He shows 3 weeks off after a weak race…might come back ready but I’m guessing he weakens late at the 9.5F distance…not well bred. It’s worth noting that he won a maiden claiming at Fpx at 9-1 where local produce are prefered…the lower the claiming price the more it favors the Cal breds.
Lookin At Lucky should have run in the Ark Dby on dirt but instead ran a poor race on a favorable surface. He did run good in the Rebel leaving Dublin.
Dublin was iced over at 20-1 last time and Super Saver seems to be more talented. I’ll probably put a deuce win/place on Pleasant Prince and exacta box Lookin/Super/Pleasant.
Not feelin Pleasant Prince. The Florida Derby was gift wrapped for a deep closer -as was the KY Derby (Ice Box.). I don’t think Pleasant Prince is nearly as good as Ice Box despite what we saw at Gulfstream, and the Preakness should set up for a horse that can stalk close to the pace like Lookin at Lucky.
The pace in the Preakness could wind up being on the fast side. Speed has been holding and many of the Preakness contenders have nothing to lose and would love to steal the race on the front end. The connections of Super Saver might be reluctant to take the lead after just winning from off the pace. Taking the lead would be their best bet but I think they’re in a damned if they do, damned if they don’t situation. When Lookin at Lucky crosses the wire in front there will be lots of second guessing. Poor Calvin!
Based on historical trends, we should look for the winner of the Preakness amongst the horses coming out of the Derby. This narrows the field down to five horses: Dublin, Jackson Bend, Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O’Prado and Super Saver. I expect a good effort from Dublin (having experienced the Derby, he could be a bit more relaxed this time). Jackson Bend has had too many chances. Paddy O’Prado is a good horse and it would be very interesting if Desormeaux tried to grab the lead. It’s not an impossible scenario to envisage now that Super Saver has shown that he can win from a stalking position. Paddy is one of the better horses, but it’s hard to imagine him winning from off the pace. Super Saver has obvious appeal and is likely to run another good race. Lucky will have a chance in every race that he enters, but probably isn’t that good.
First Dude and Yawanna Twist seem to be the more progressive horses of the other group. Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince and Aikenite are a bit more exposed but are capable of running a good race. Caracortado and Northern Giant look like also-rans.
It won’t be a magnum edition of the Preakness, but this looks like a well-balanced field once again. Super Saver will be my final selection. The horse won a below-par Derby but has the best pace in a relatively paceless race, and stays the distance. I expect First Dude to be up close with the pace and run a good race. Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O’Prado and especially Dublin all look like they could run in the money. Of the new faces, I prefer Yawanna Twist at 30/1.
Source: http://www.latekick.com/
Yawanna Twist has a shot to upset but he’ll have to step it up. 30-1 is a bit rediculous on this guy. Prado has shocked the world in the Belmont twice. Perhaps he can do it again in the Preakness.
Wow that was a dissapointing race for Super Saver! Hopefully he is okay. There didn’t appear to be any reson for him to run that poorly. To be honest I think he would have beat Lucky had he ran like he did in the Derby.
Gets his Preak on??? Well done.