Travers Day Selections

28 08 2009

Well, it’s sure been an exciting week here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.  We began with a reflection on whether it was proper for Rachel Alexandra to have pointed to the Woodward instead of the Travers.  With the 140th running of the Travers suddenly upon us, such questions have been rendered academic.  Following hot on the heels of the excitement that was our first “cougar” related sighting earlier in the week, we’ll attempt to wade back into familiar territory with some selections for the major stakes races being run at Saratoga on Travers day. 

Race 7 – The Victory Ride (Grade 3) – 6 Furlongs

  • #1 Bold Union/ #1A All of Her Twist (7/2)
  • #7 Selva (4/1)
  • #2 Trix in the City (10/1)

We get the party started with the 7th running of the Victory Ride for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 furlongs over the main track. The coupled entry of #1 Bold Union and #1A All of Her Twist for trainer Kelly Breen looks quite formidable here.  Bold Union should be forwardly placed, while All of Her Twist will look to pick up the pieces late should the race fall apart.  That tortoise and hare approach makes them a force to be reckoned with. 

Amazingly, with the morning line favoritism has been placed upon #8 Sara Louise at 2/1.  The daughter of Malibu Moon looks like a talented enough runner, and was last seen running behind some filly named Rachel Alexandra that you might have heard of – but that was all the way back in November.  She might well be the class of the field, and certainly we’ve seen runners who were defeated by Queen Rachel return to win next out on several occasions, but pardon me if I’m not interested in eating 2/1 chalk on a horse that hasn’t been seen in so long.  Now, if she makes a smashing impression in the post parade, I’ll gladly insert my foot into my mouth and deny having said any of the above.  For now though, I’ll make her beat me at those odds.

Selva is an interesting runner for trainer David Carroll.  The filly ran well in both the Beaumont (G2) and the Prioress (G1) and rates as a horse who may be sitting on a big race.  She’s shown in the past that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead to prevail, and she picks up the services of Alan Garcia, who has been my main man all meet long. 

The rest of the field looks fairly evenly matched, but I thought Linda Rice’s runner, #2 Trix in the City might offer some value underneath in the exotics.  It’s hard to believe you can get a Gomez/Rice combo at 10/1 in any race.  I guess folks only think of turf when they think of Linda Rice, but it’s worth noting she’s a very respectable 21% on dirt, and due for a graded stakes win.

$1 Trifecta: 1/2,7,8/2,7,8 ($6)

 

Race 9: The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) – 1 1/16 Miles – Turf

  • #1 Rutherienne (5/2)
  • #7 Cocoa Beach (2/1*)
  • #6 Captain’s Lover (6/1)

Looks like we’ve got a tough one to decipher here with the 21st running of the Grade 2 Ballston Spa.  I could make a case for just about the entire field.

All joking aside, Cocoa Beach is a bit of a shaky favorite.  While the Beyer figure and final time came up decent from her one mile victory in the DeLaRose, it wasn’t exactly a defining performance.  Here’s the thing though – she found a way to prevail and has been a very consistent runner for most of her career.  She also seems to run to the level of her competition, at least that’s my supposition, as I can’t otherwise fathom how one could go from within a length and a half of the undefeated Zenyatta to being 4th in the Floral Park?  Obvious surface changes and conditions were a part of that procession, but still.  At the end of the day, she’s a classy Grade 1 turf winner, who ought to have a shot in the stretch.

Rutherienne is a horse I usually use in my exotic wagers.  Unfortunately for me, that typically means a close 2nd or 3rd place finish.  That being said, it’s an obvious mistake to count her out of this fight here as she’s got what it takes to find the winner’s circle.  Just looking over her running lines you can tell that she’s always right there and gives a strong account of herself.  She was less than a length behind Forever Together and Caribbean Sunset in the Grade 1 Diana last out – another performance like that and she just might steal the show.  Also note her record at the distance – 9 starts with 7 wins and 1 place.  Looks like trainer Christophe Clement might have her in exactly the right spot.

Captain’s Lover is the x-factor here.  It’s easy to dismiss her based on the most recent Beyer figure and the pedestrian workouts, but if you key off her effort 3 back in the Just A Game, she makes some sense here.  I’d also pay some attention to #2 My Princess Jess underneath in the exotics, as this horse has proven to be lethal at the distance, including a whopping 100 Beyer performance that would make her a threat for top honors on a repeat.

$1 Trifecta: 1/2,6,7/ 2,3,5,6,7 ($12)

  

Race 10: The Ballerina (Grade 1) – 7 Furlongs

  • #4 Indian Blessing (8/5*)
  • #2 Informed Decision (2/1)
  • #3 Tar Heel Mom (10/1)

A small but talented field awaits bettors for the 31st running of the Ballerina.  Morning line favoritism is awarded to the fan favorite Indian Blessing, who has spent some time on the shelf following a disappointing defeat to Cocoa Belle in the Desert Storm Handicap back in June.  You might recall trainer Bob Baffert indicating that he believed that effort could be blamed on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park, after which he announced that she would head east and never been seen on synthetics again.  So much for Jess Jackson being the only guy in the sport to detest synthetics.  Sprinting on the dirt she’s a force to be reckoned with, and I suspect we’ll see a bit of the old Indian Blessing that we all knew and loved last year.  That’s if, of course, the trip to Dubai and the let down in Los Angeles didn’t sap her strength. 

Informed looks like the logical threat on paper, but all of her more gaudy Beyer figures (i.e., all of those in excess of 100) were achieved on synthetic surfaces at Keeneland and Arlington Park.  Don’t let that fool you too much though, as she’s a proven Grade 1 winner on dirt as well – it’s just that dirt might not be her “best” surface.  One thing you can’t argue with is a perfect 5 for 5 record at the tricky 7 furlong distance.  That, my friends, makes Informed a “must use” on the exotics no matter how you feel about Indian Blessing.

Music Note is an interesting runner who in a deeper field might offer more value.  Sadly, with just 6 contenders to choose from, she’s a virtual lock to be close to morning line odds of 5/2.  Obviously you must forgive the last race to include her. Ultimately though, I sided with #3 Tar Heel Mom to round out the selections as I was looking for a little value underneath.  I have questions about whether 7 furlongs is up Music Note’s alley, but I don’t have those concerns about Tar Heel Mom.  Add to the equation that I’m getting Alan Grcia at 10/1 and I’m all ready to hop aboard this bandwagon – at least for a minor award. I’ll also give P.S.U. Grad a tiny bit of coverage on the bottom of the trifecta.

$1 Trifecta: 4/2,3/ 1,2,3,6 ($8)

 

Race 11: The King’s Bishop (Grade 1) – 7 Furlongs

  • #2 Munnings (2/1*)
  • #3 Capt. Candyman Can (4/1)
  • #1 Vineyard Haven (7/2)

The 25th running of the NetJets King’s Bishop features 8 contenders and is filled with intrigue.

The horse most, including myself, will focus on is #2 Munnings.  He proved he could be a warrior at a longer distance, despite being a Speightstown colt, by digging in and hanging on for third against Rachel Alexandra and Summer Bird in the historic running of the Haskell Invitational last month.  Now he returns to a more favorable distance, and if Jess Jackson’s comments following the Haskell prove correct, he could make this academic.  Jackson, you may recall, indicated that he thought Munnings had the potential to be a future “champion” sprinter.  One thing is certain, runners who have finished respectably (with the definition of “respectably” being somewhat vague in these circumstances, including 20 length defeats) against Rachel Alexandra seem to fair well on their return.  Gabby’s Golden Gal, Flashing, and Take the Points are recent examples of this phenomenon.  I look for Munnings to stalk and pounce the way he did in the Tom Fool and to prove too much for the competition in the stretch.

Capt. Candyman Can would seem to be the obvious second choice here, having chased Quality Road in that runner’s record setting comeback in the Amsterdam. He thrives at the 7 furlong distance and tends to get decent trips when he runs his best races.  It’s been a banner year for Candy Ride offspring, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him prevail.  I tend to think Munnings is a shade better, but if the Haskell took anything out of that runner, than Capt. Candyman Can would be a logical shot for win honors.

Vineyard Haven – remember this guy?  Back in the winter of 2008/2009, he was squarely atop many an early Kentucky Derby rankings list. One has to wonder if this guy still has that promising talent, or if the window of opportunity has closed?  He did win his first stakes here at Saratoga around this time last year, so maybe he’ll perk back up with a return to familiar settings (and an injection of Lasix)?  I’m going to give him one more chance, especially since Alan Garcia is aboard.  Of course, this also means you get the entry mate, Everyday Heroes, who was rather disappointing in the Amsterdam but capable of a rebound.

I think it goes without saying that you should probably include Big Drama in your trifectas as well.  I’d also add Despite the Odds to the mix for trainer Michael Trombetta.

$1 Trifecta: 2/1,3,8/ 1,3,5,8 ($12)

 

Race 12: The Shadwell Travers (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles

  • #7 Kensei (7/2)
  • #4 Quality Road (8/5*)
  • #6 Summer Bird (3/1)

And here it is – the feature race of the weekend – the 140th running of the “4th jewel of the Triple Crown” – the Grade 1 Shadwell Travers.  You already know how I feel about this one -  I would’ve loved to see Queen Rachel become the first filly since 1915 to win this race and silence any suggestions that Quality Road has her number.  Instead, I’ll have to “settle” for Rachel becoming one of the rarest of the rare; a 3-year-old filly capable of defeating older males at a route distance in a graded stakes.  Not that bad a “consolation” prize if you ask me!

Of course, Rachel isn’t here in the Travers, so let’s focus on those who are.

Quality Road; what can I say?  He was my guy going into the Kentucky Derby before injury forced him to pull out.  After extended time on the shelf he came right back out and ran a record setting 6 1/2 furlongs in the Amsterdam (Grade 2).  That race showed he still had his talent.  Now we’ll see if the son of Elusive Quality can handle stretchng out to 1 and 1/4 miles.   That might be asking quite a bit of this guy, but he is fresh, and if he’s half the horse that folks seem to be whispering he is, this race could be over before it starts.

That being said, I’m going to go with Kensei here.  I don’t know what it is about this runner?  Perhaps it’s his Japanese inspired name which makes me think of my childhood and the cheesy “black belt theater” movies they used to show on Saturday’s on Philly 57.  Whenever I think of him, I think of the introduction to The Shogun’s Assasin.

“You do not understand my words – but you must choose.” Ah yes, just as the assasin commands his son to choose between life and death, so must we select a winner from this field.

This is the horse that Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen wanted to give a shot in the Travers, and he seems to be one of those “Rodney Dangerfield” type runners who doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  i questioned heading into the Dwyer whether he could handle the added distance, and all he’s done since is one up me by going an extra half furlong in the Jim Dandy as well.  Respect Kensei.  Something tells me he might be up for the fight of his life with Quality Road in the stretch. 

Summer Bird is a horse that I have a bit of a connection with.  My wife picked him in the Belmont and he went out and won, and then we had the honor of hanging out with trainer Tim Ice and his owners, the Kalarikkal and Jayarman families on Haskell day, where he fought his guts out to run second to the monster I shall not mention again in this post.  You know he can get the distance, and now you know he can run gamely being closer up to the pace.  I expect a big performance from this stunningly beautiful chestnut. 

All of this suggests we just might have a great running of the Travers ahead of us. 

One other horse you’ve got to pay some attention to is the hype machine that is Charitable Man.  Remember when this guy was going to be the runner that denied Big Brown the Triple Crown?  Obviously that didn’t happen, but ever since his victory in the Peter Pan, it feels like we here a “watchout for Charitable Man” warning every few months or so.  For my money, he had his chances in the Belmont and Jim Dandy to prove he was the horse many thought he was, and he just wasn’t all he was hyped up to be.  He can hit the board, and it would be great for his connections if he finally did take that step forward, but I won’t be wagering on it.

I will be adding in Warrior’s Reward here though at slightly better odds of 8/1.  Hey, we may not have got the Medaglia D’Oro offspring we wanted, but consiering this guy held on for 2nd in the Jim Dandy, he looks usable underneath.

$1 Trifecta:  4,7/ 4,6,7/ 3,4,6,7  ($8)

Best of luck to all!  May all your wagers be “cashers.”  :)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Indian Blessing, Saratoga, horse racing, Quality Road, Summer Bird, Kensei

Rachel Alexandra Eyes a New Frontier in the Woodward

25 08 2009
Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

Older males-the “final frontier.”  These are the voyages of the filly Rachel Alexandra.  Her 3-year-mission thus far being to explore new worlds, to seek out new challenges and competition; to boldly go where no filly has gone before.   

“Captain’s Log, Star Date 9/5/09.  I, Captain Jess J. Kirk of the starship Rachel Alexandra, after lengthy consultation with the crew, have decided to set course for the uncharted Woodward nebula.”

With word coming yesterday that Rachel Alexandra would skip the Travers and instead point the Woodward Stakes on September 5, the stage is set for the next chapter in her historic campaign to be written.  She’s already throttled everything the 3-year-old filly division could throw at her.  She’s toyed with the 3-year-old boys in becoming the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness Stakes, and the 2nd filly in 42 years to prevail in the Haskell Invitational.  The only worlds left for her to conquer are that of the older runners of both her own division and that of the males she’s been humiliating in recent efforts.

By skipping older fillies and mares and proceeding straight to older males, one might say that she’s jumped right over the double-dog-dare (the Travers), right past the triple-dare (facing older fillies and mares), and thrown down the gauntlet that is the dreaded triple-dog-dare.  Here she is fellas, come and catch her if you can.

 

The decision also sets the stage for her stablemate, the oft-overlooked Kensei, to run in the Travers this weekend against the likes of Summer Bird, Mine That Bird, and Quality Road. 

Here’s the funny thing…depending on who Rachel faces in the Woodward, skipping the Travers might actually wind up being an easier path to follow.  Usually that’s not the case – as all things being equal older horses tend to be tougher than younger ones, but this year I’m not sure that old axiom holds true. 

We started the Triple Crown season assuming we had a distinctly deep crop of 3-year-olds, and we were only focusing on the colts at first.  At times we wondered if the depth of the crop might rival that we saw in 2007.  Then, as is sadly the case in many years, injuries began to rob us of our most gifted runners.  The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, and finally even likely favorite I Want Revenge on Derby morning of all days, all succumbed to nagging injuries and wound up missing the party.

Now we’ve got Quality Road back, and if his record setting effort at Saratoga in the Amsterdam at the beginning of the month was any indication, he’s in sharp form.  Even more miraculously, we’ve had other runners such as Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, and now Kensei step up to the plate and prove that we did indeed have a deep and talented crop this year.  Then you look at the fillies.  While obviously none have quite stacked up to Rachel’s level of greatness, just when you think you’ve got the division all figured out along comes a horse like Careless Jewel, who looks like she could take colts to task if she wanted to as well.  And note, we haven’t even mentioned the overseas sensations that are Sariska and Sea of Stars.

 

 

But what of our older male division?  Well, truth be told, it’s arguably at it’s lowest point ever.  Most of the older males worth their salt are already pointing towards the Breeders’ Cup this fall.  Synthetic surfaces continue to remain the one frontier that “Captain Jess J. Kirk” does not seem willing to boldly return to and attempt to conquer…at least for now.

Instead, Jackson is literally re-writing the history books as he goes while Rachel’s triumphant victory parade marches through the legendary shrines of horse racing that dot the East Coast and Mid Atlantic Regions.  Pimlico, Belmont, and Monmouth have already fallen to Alexandra the Great  just the way cities of the ancient world fell to a conqueror of similar name many centuries before. 

Will Saratoga be the next great bastion of horse racing fame to compound “before thy most assured overthrow?“

“What say you, Woodward competitors? Will you yield, and this avoid, or guilty in defense be thus destroyed?”

Ah yes, we’re back to quoting Shakespeare here at the Aspiring Horseplayer, which if you recall from my Curlin-obsessed period (I being one who actually divides his life into two segments;  BC for “before Curlin” and PC for “post Curlin”), tends to happen when we’re on the cusp of a momentous achievement.

The good news, at least for Rachel’s would-be rivals, is that those who have faced the “Wrath of Rachel” and survived to tell the tale have quite often returned in triumphant fashion.  It’s like their resolve has been all the more steeled by staring straight into the eyes of the mythical beast and giving it their all.  While she tends to blow away fields by ridiculous open lengths, these runners do not hang their heads for long. Take the Points, Flashing, Gabby’s Golden Gal – all returned to the winner’s circle following dismal performances against the great one. 

Lining up to meet Rachel and attempt to deny her latest shot at history will likely be Bullsbay and Macho Again.  Fine horses in their own right, but not quite the sizzling matchup we might have had with the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners going up against a fresh new challenger like Quality Road.  True, there’s history on the line by attempting to become the first filly champion of the Woodward, but the Travers would’ve offered just as much historical precedence.  Remember, it’s not been since the days of the Austro-Hungarian empire that a filly has been crowned Travers champion (1915).

No matter, the racing world seems to be pulling out all the stops, including a purse boost to the Woodward in order to help attract as competitive a field as possible.  Being as that we’re nearing the one year anniversary of the NTRA marketing summit (click that link for a retrospective look courtesy of the Paulick Report and our fearless TBA leader, Handride) last year where myself and other fans pleaded with the powers that be to do a better job of telling a compelling, continuous story from the Triple Crown to the Breeders’ Cup – I sincerely hope something is being worked out to ensure that both the Travers and the Woodward will be delivered to as wide a viewing audience as possible.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but given the level of “star power” that Rachel has (our Facebook fanclub group alone numbering in the thousands – and keep in mind that the overall number of people revealed in Facebook searches who have even listed “horse racing” as an interest is significantly lower than that total, meaning she exceeds the fanship of all racing fans on that social networking application), it seems to be a horrible mistake that she’s only been nationally broadcast once so far this year in the Preakness. I don’t care what the excuses are - and no doubt some are valid – it’s still inexcusable.

I can understand not covering Zenyatta much this year as she’s progressed through the various “San-Who-Gives-A-Rats?” Stakes in California, but the job we’re doing collectively at promoting our most interesting draw is simply mind bogglingly bad.  The Preakness with Rachel blew television viewership levels of recent memory completely out of the water.  The single day of wagering helped turn an otherwise disastrous Pimlico meet amidst the “Great Economic Recession” into an improvement over the previous year.  You’d think someone, somewhere, might want to try and keep that excitement going?

Is it really that hard to promote something so….promotable?  The Geico cavemen sure make it look easy.

 

 

“Please, if you don’t mind, let Rachel be herself!  So she can shine with her own mind, let her be herself!” (God I love those commercials!!!!)

 

But then again, as the Paulick Report article I linked to several paragraphs above has to point out, the perception of bloggers like us who call for such things is that we’re peons who spend all day in grandma’s basement, grinding axes against perceived threats out in the ether of the “real world” – which evidently is a frighteningly complex place that our fragile minds are  ill-equipped to either confront or understand.  Yes, as over-the-top as that description sounds, I suspect that is what comes to mind whenever I utter the dreaded “b-word” to folks (“blogger”), but I digress.

Back to the matter at hand…considering that we’re already missing a matchup of infinite significance that the entire world wants to see (Zenyatta and Rachel) in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita this fall, isn’t just a bit disappointing that we don’t get the dream matchup that would’ve been possible in the Travers?  Was it really the wise thing to do to jump right past the double-dog-dare and the triple-dare and move on to older males?  I suppose we could armchair general this thing to death, but my hunch tells me that the race fans wanted to see was Rachel versus Quality Road more so than Rachel versus Bullsbay. 

Don’t get me wrong, as many know I’ve got a great deal of admiration for Bullsbay since he’s a Tiznow and trained by one of the absolute best their is in Graham Motion, but he’s not the horse you hear people whispering about in connection with Rachel. 

For my money, the Travers was setting up to be the race of the year, and we’ve already been jipped out of one race that is intended  be the race of the year.  I know I’m normally walking in lock-step with Jess on the decisions he makes, but in this case I find myself in mild disagreement.  Of course, the whole situation could be rendered academic if either of the “Birds” finds a way to prevail in the Travers, since Rachel has already defeated them.  If Quality Road wins, however, then we’ll have a small dose of controversy on our hands as folks begin whispering for a matchup between he and Rachel in addition to the ubiquitous calls for the Rachel versus Zenyatta matchup. 

You know what I always say about such things:  NEVER wind up in a two front war.  That rule being only superceded by it’s sister rule: Never get involved in a land war in Asia. 

For Rachel’s connections, I suspect the situation is a bit like a game of “whack-a-mole.” Every time you think she’s knocked out the competition definitively, someone else surfaces purportedly ready for a shot at the title.  Who knows, in time that might include her stablemate, Kensei? It ain’t easy being top dog, that’s for sure, no matter how deceptively so Rachel makes it seem. 

In an attempt to see if my suspicions about what racing fans wanted to see are correct, I’ve added a poll below.  Sound off and let me know what you think. Was it right to point to the Woodward and take on older males, or should Jess and company have opted for the Travers instead?


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Categories : Horse Racing News, TBA, Saratoga, horse racing, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Kensei

Colonial Turf Cup looks like a good one

21 06 2008

The highlight of the Saturday card at Colonial Downs will be the 4th running of the Grade 3 Colonial Turf Cup.  A field of 10 horses has entered to take to the grass in the 1 3/16 mile Turf Cup, which serves as the first leg of the “Grand Slam of Grass.”  Some familiar names pepper the field, including Kentucky Derby runners Court Vision and Adriano along with Preakness competitor Kentucky Bear.

The field for the Turf Cup looks like this:

  1. El Sultry Sun (E. Coa) 12/1
  2. Court Vision (G. Gomez) 9/2
  3. Your Round (J. Lopez) 20/1
  4. Sporting Art (J. Castellano) 5/1
  5. Baltimore Bob (H. Koaramanos) 30/1
  6. Nistle’s Crunch (R. Albarado) 8/1
  7. Kentucky Bear (E. Trujillo) 8/1
  8. Boss Lafitte (J. Leparoux) 15/1
  9. Sailor’s Cap (A. Garcia) 7/2
  10.  Adriano (E. Prado) 3/1*

There will be a lot of directions for handicappers to go in this race, so I expect fair prices on the board.  Let’s start with the obvious, more high profile horses.  Trainer Bill Mott has two of the more well-known colts running today in Adriano and Court Vision.   Adriano used to be under the tutelage of Graham Motion, but has recently switched stables and come under the direction of Mott.  You may remember Adriano for his victory in the Grade 2 Lanes’s End Stakes back on March 22.  He should enjoy the switch back to grass and if his Derby run didn’t zap him the son of A.P. Indy could move forward again today. 

Court Vision is a bit more perplexing. Not quite fast enough on dirt to get to the better 3-year-olds this year, Mott will now try the grass for the son of Gulch.  He does have two decent wins over the synthetics at the start of his career to entice, but would appear to need a serious step forward to threaten for the win.  Perhaps he’ll be a bit closer to the pace than he has been in his previous 3-year-old efforts on the dirt?

The most accomplished turf specialists of the field are Sporting Art (4 for 7, $334, 549 in turf earnings), Sailor’s Cap ($103,495 in turf earnings), and El Sultry Sun (3 for 5 lifetime, $167, 285 in turf earnings).  Note that you may be able to catch a price on some of these guys if the bigger named entries take all the play at the windows. 

I like the Beyer progression of El Sultry Sun who exits a victory over Prussian in the Lamplighter at Monmouth Park on May 25th.  El Sultry Sun also has a bullet workout on June 8th going 4 furlongs in 47 and change.  Sporting Art has defeated El Sultry Sun two races back.   Sailor’s Cap gets the services of winning Belmont jockey Alan Garcia and exits a tough defeat to a very good horse named Tizdejavu by a neck in his last effort.

Of the other runners, Kentucky Bear intrigues me the most as I really liked this guy going into the Preakness.  He had a trip from hell that day stumbling early and being checked later on.  WIth all that trouble in mind, he didn’t really disgrace himself by finishing 6th in a field of 12 and 14 lengths behind the monster Big Brown.  I’d consider this guy the “x-factor” of the race.  It’s tough to tell how he’ll take to the grass, and Reade Baker isn’t exactly known as a turf ace, but if he responds to the surface change this guy could be sitting on a good race.

You also have to pay some attention to Robby Albarado’s horse Nistle’s Crunch.  This is a colt that has faced some good horses in Big Brown and Tizdejavu.  We also know he can run on the grass as evidenced by his last two races that earned 88 and 91 Beyer speed figures, respectively.  I’m not sure if he’s a serious win candidate, but he could wind up in the money.

I look for Sailor’s Cap to get a nice trip here today and either be on the lead or just off it.  I’d prefer just off the lead as I think that’s where he does his best running, but breaking from the 9 hole may dictate otherwise and he could well find himself alone on the lead.  The question will then become can he hold? 

Sporting Art and Adriano should be coming on late and looking to overtake Sailor’s Cap. Court Vision will likely be there with them if he takes to the grass, but I’m going to give Sporting Art and Adriano the nod over Court Vision as I think they are a tad faster. 

I’ll give Adriano the nod the for the win, with Sporting Art and Sailor’s Cap battling it out for place.  Court Vision, Nistle’s Crunch, El Sultry Sun will round out my play in third.  I play a saver bet on Kentucky Bear just in case he shows up as well.

$1 Triifecta:  10/4, 9/ 1, 2, 4, 6, 9  (Total $8 )

This is a tough one for sure, and I think if you prefer any of the horses that include El Sultry Sun, Sporting Art, Court Vision, Adriano, Nistle’s Crunch, Kentucky Bear, or Sailor’s Cap – then play ‘em.  This is that competitive of a race.  Go with your gut is my advice.


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Categories : Adriano, Court Vision, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News

Post Positions and Odds Set for the Kentucky Derby

30 04 2008

The field is set.  The post positions have been drawn. Even the morning line odds have been established for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  All that’s left to do now is pick a winner, lay the bets, and wait for the gates to open.

I’m not going to officially make a pick here now – as I’ve still got several days to mull things over.   I think most of you are already familiar with the horses I think most highly of.  I’ll do one final ranking of the contenders on Friday along with my picks.  For now, let’s take a look at the field.  

  1.  Cool Coal Man (20/1)
  2.  Tale of Ekati (15/1)
  3.  Anak Nakal (30/1)
  4.  Court Vision (20/1)
  5.  Eight Belles (20/1)
  6.  Z Fortune (15/1)
  7.  Big Truck (50/1)
  8.  Visionaire (20/1)
  9.  Pyro (6/1)
  10.  Colonel John (4/1)
  11.  Z Humor (30/1)
  12.  Smooth Air (20/1)
  13.  Bob Black Jack (20/1)
  14.  Monba (15/1)
  15.  Adriano (30/1)
  16.  Denis of Cork (20/1)
  17.  Cowboy Cal (20/1)
  18.  Recapturetheglory (20/1)
  19.  Gayego (15/1)
  20.  Big Brown (3/1*)

First things first.  The likely favorite, Big Brown, has drawn the extreme outside post position of #20.  No horse has ever won the Derby from the 20 hole, so he’ll have to make history if he is to prevail.  I like Big Brown a lot and think he’s a worthy favorite, but will the 20 hole be too much to overcome?

All of the speed in the race (Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, even Gayego to a certain extent) appears to be to the outside.  Not only that, but they are all closely bunched together.  Bob Black Jack is breaking from the 13 hole – not too far away.  Might this lead to a bit hotter of a pace than many have been expecting? 

Looking over the odds, it appears that Gayego and Eight Belles got a bit of the Rodney Dangerfield “no respect” treatment.  Gayego is at 15/1, while the filly Eight Belles is listed at 20/1.  Personally, I’ll take those odds all day long on those horses. 

Pyro is at 6/1, despite numerous impressive dirt tries, while Colonel John, who has yet to race over the surface, is at lower odds of 4/1.  Z Fortune, Monba, and Tale of Ekati join Gayego as not having received a shred of respect at 15/1. 

I’m just going to come out and say this now. I’m not a fan of Big Brown being right next to the likely speed contenders in the 20 hole.  Picking against him in the Florida Derby when he was in the 12 hole turned out to be a bad play by me a month ago.  I know I’m possibly guilty of making the same mistake, but I’m not thinking that I’ll accept the favorite at such a short price (although to be honest, 3/1 really isn’t that bad for a colt with the talent of Big Brown) breaking from such an extreme outside position in the Derby.   There looks to be value elsewhere.

I like the middle-of-the field post positions for Visionaire (8), Pyro (9), and Colonel John (10) especially.  I think these horses got really good draws that can set them up for nice runs on Saturday.  I’m not going to back any of them for the win purely based on post position though and am only noting that this will factor into the equation at some level.  The middle of the pack just looks like the sweet spot, doesn’t it?

We’ve got a bevy of seasoned and well established readers that visit here often, and I’d like to hear your opinions on the post positions and odds. Who do you guys see as having a beneficial post?  What do you make of Big Brown and the speed breaking from the outside?  Does anyone’s odds make you giddy at the prospect of a big payout? 


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Categories : Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, Z Fortune, Z Humor

Monday Derby Update

28 04 2008

Well folks, it’s finally here.  Kentucky Derby week has arrived!  It seems like centuries have past since last year’s Derby and the moment we’ve all been waiting for – the so called “greatest 2 minutes in sports” – is fast upon us.

I’ll be chiming in with updates, thoughts, and random musings whenever possible this week as the suspense continues to build (hopefully to a fever pitch) in anticipation of the run for the roses.  There’s a lot happening on the Derby front as the horses arrive at Churchill and begin their final preparations for the biggest race of their lives.

Post positions are scheduled to be drawn on the afternoon of Wednesday (April 30th).  We’ll take a look at the post position draw on Wednesday night and see how it impacts the likely contenders.  For now, here are some of the headlines for Monday:

  • Proud Spell is being pointed to the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Kentucky Derby.  After much deliberation, Larry Jones is going to enter his prized filly for a run against the girls rather than a battle of the sexes with the boys.
  • Eight Belles, however, looks like she may still wind up facing the boys in the Derby.  Jones mentioned that he likes her chances considering how the top colts all appear vulnerable.  He also thinks she can “beat up” the boys due to her size and abilities she’s shown in his barn all year.  She’s being entered in both the Oaks and the Derby, and the post position draw for the Derby on Wednesday will likely decide where she goes.  Ideally, Jones would love to have a chance to sweep both the Oaks and the Derby.  We’ll see how this plays out.  She’s a major player in my opinion if she runs in the Derby on Saturday.
  • Colonel John is starting to show signs that he likes the dirt at Churchill.   Since arriving at Churchill, the son of Tiznow and likely 2nd betting choice in the Derby has taken some time to find his footing.  His first couple of gallops around the track had folks suggesting he looked a bit timid or unsure of himself.  On Sunday the Colonel put those notions to rest with a very impressive 5 furlong workout in 57.45, galloping out to 6 furlongs in 1:11.20.  If Sunday’s workout is any indication, it looks like the Colonel is ready to bring a big effort this weekend.
  • Smooth Air is back on track after a brief temperature scare late last week.  Trainer Bernie Stutts has gotten the colts temperature back down to normal and the colt is both eating well and returning to the track as of Sunday after missing his Friday and Saturday workouts.
  • Adriano worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.80, galloping out to 6 furlongs in 1:14.40 for trainer Graham Motion.  Edgar Prado will be aboard on Saturday for the Derby.  The colt still faces questions about how well he’ll race over the dirt after being more of a turf/synthetic specialist thus far in his career.
  • Ramon Dominguez will take the reins on Monba for trainer Todd Pletcher in Saturday’s Derby.  Dominguez gets the call due to Prado’s defection to Adriano.  Ironically, Dominguez rode Adriano 4 times in the past, but Adriano’s connections chose Prado for the Derby.  Rene Douglass, who has ridden Monba several times, will likely take the mount on Z Humor instead.
  • Court Vision continues to train well for Bill Mott.  The colt went 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 and galloped out to 6 furlongs in 1:14 on Sunday.  After winning two Stakes as a 2-year-old, Court Vision has yet to turn in a signature performance as a 3 year-old.  He has a pair of 3rd place finishes in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial thus far on his resume for 2008. Garrett Gomez will be riding Court Vision in Saturday’s Derby.

That’s all for now.  Stay tuned as I’ll share whatever information I can with you throughout the week.   I’m even toying with sharing my wife’s amazing homemade barbecue sauce recipe – as (weather permitting) it would be a sin not to grill out this Saturday while playing the Churchill under-card. 


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Categories : Adriano, Churchill Downs, Colonel John, Court Vision, Eight Belles, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Proud Spell, Z Humor

Updated Derby Rankings

20 04 2008

This week brought more shakeups to the list.  War Pass is officially off the Derby trail with an injury.  Speculation is swirling that top fillies Eight Belles and Proud Spell may enter into the Derby field.  I’m waiting for an official announcement before I rank them, but needless to say they’d make an instant impact.

Behindatthebar took the Coolmore Lexington to give Todd Pletcher, who just a few weeks ago was on the verge of being shut out of the Kentucky Derby, 3 entries in the run for the roses.  The field is really starting to take shape.  I won’t make an official “pick” until post positions are drawn and we get a chance to see a few more workouts.  Here’s how they stack up in my mind: Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Proud Spell, Pyro, Salute the Sarge, Tale of Ekati, Tomcito, Visionaire, War Pass, Z Fortune, Z Humor

Updated Kentucky Derby Rankings

30 03 2008

With 5 weeks to go now until the 2008 Kentucky Derby, the picture is starting to get a little clearer.  Big Brown’s romp in the Florida Derby on 3/29 has shaken up the entire division.  Will War Pass be able to return to form in the Wood Memorial?  If  so we’ve got ourselves a heck of a race coming up in May.  If not we’ll need some more contenders to step up here quickly.   Interestingly, while at one point it looked like War Pass had a shot at being lone speed in the Kentucky Derby, there now figures to be a strong pace with or without him. 

As always, you can either view my rankings on the main Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby page, or you can use the “more” tag below. Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Adriano, Atoned, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, El Gato Malo, Elysium Fields, Gayego, Georgie Boy, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Majestic Warrior, Pyro, Roman Emperor, Texas Wildcatter, Visionaire, War Pass

Adriano takes command to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End

23 03 2008

Adriano pulls away in the Grade 2 Lane’s End at Turfway Park

Trainer Graham Motion may have just found himself a Kentucky Derby competitor.  Adriano, a 3 year old son of A.P. Indy, put in an impressive run over the Turfway Park synthetic track to prevail in the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes.  Motion had enticed jockey Edgar Prado to head south to Turfway Park for the event, and the veteran jockey was able to get Adriano to make his move entering the far turn.  Once asked for his run,  Adriano was able to pull away from the rest of the field, that included the hard charging Halo Najib and Medjool – who finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.  The final winning margin of 2 1/2 lengths is a bit misleading as the colt was ahead by as many as 4 lengths when Prado began to ease him up in the stretch.

The win gives Adriano enough graded earnings to seriously consider heading to Churchill the first Saturday in May to compete in the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Prior to the Lane’s End, Graham Motion had been quoted as saying he wasn’t sure if the colt would be on the Derby trail even if he did win.  Once the colt made his way to the winner’s circle however, that sentiment seemed to have changed. 

Adriano returned $11.60 for the win.  The final time for the Lane’s End was 1:50.20.  

There will still be questions and concerns, as Adriano has primarily been a turf runner, and a solid run over the Turfway Park synthetic surface doesn’t really give us a clear indication of how the colt will take to a true dirt surface.  Many times horses with strong turf pedigree perform well over the synthetic surfaces, but true dirt can be a whole separate ballgame.  Other considerations will include the fact that the Lane’s End was not a particularly strong race as far as the field was concerned, but I thought Halo Najib and Medjool were running pretty well in the end and Adriano was still pulling away from them until eased up.

Will have to stay tuned to see if Motion and owners Courtlandt Farms decide to ship the colt to Kentucky.  For now we can simply imagine Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky character shouting at the top of his lungs, “Yo! Adriano did it!!!”


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Categories : Adriano, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Turfway Park


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