Belmont State of Mind

6 06 2010

“I’m the new Sinatra and since I made it here I can make it anywhere.  Yeah they love me everywhere.”

Jasmine Villegas - who upset fans and horses alike with her god awful singing at Belmont on Saturday.

The above statement is contained in the opening lyrics of the Jay-Z/Alicia Keys hit “Empire State of Mind” – which in an ironic twist replaced the traditional singing of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York”  on Saturday prior to the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes.  With the original artists unable to attend, teen sensation Jasmine Villegas was called on  to offer her vocal skills to the crowd.  The result, at least from what we saw on the television broadcast, was an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions.

How bad was it?

The performance was so brutal that ABC actually cut away from the unfolding catastrophe in order to go to commercial break.  A merciful decision that no doubt spared the eyeballs of countless viewers from being jabbed with writing utensils or other blunt objects.  Upon returning to the coverage, it was suggested that the beached-whale-with-a-hernia sounding notes had actually upset Make Music for Me (rather ironic, given the horse’s name).

Look, I don’t mean to be too harsh (especially towards a 16-year-old) – as I’m all for trying new things in an effort to connect more with the next generation. It’s just that the performance by Villegas actually set a new standard of “bad” for me – replacing such cherished moments as William Hung’s initial American Idol audition and Roseanne Barr’s rendition of the National Anthem.  What I find absolutely unbelievable are the celebrity chasers out there calling the performance “brilliant”. Either those pieces were written ahead of time or it proves that some folks are so obsessed with celebs that no matter what they do it will be referred to as brilliant.

The sub par effort  by the “star” Villegas may have been a bad omen for the heavy favorite in the Belmont as well; Ice Box.   The son of Pulpit would never quite get unwound in the stretch, finishing completely off the board in 8th place.  Nick Zito mentioned that we “hadn’t seen the real Ice Box today” in post race interviews.  Indeed – just as we hadn’t heard the real “Empire State of Mind” either.  I’m sure the pedestrian opening half-mile fractions set by First Dude didn’t help the situation – and of course it’s always possible that Ice Box was still sorting out in his head whether Villegas effort qualified as music or whether NYRA had been sacrificing moose live over the PA system in some sort of shocking cult ritual.  In that sense, it’s understandable that he didn’t show up with his best stuff.

Villegas and Ice Box weren’t the only ones turning in crappy performances though.   If I’m going to be a harsh critic, it’s only fair that I do the same with my own selections.  I didn’t have the winner of the Belmont anywhere on my radar going into the race.  In fact, I had called Drosselmeyer a “money burner” in a conversation with a work buddy earlier in the week (in my defense, Drosselmeyer had lost as favorite in 4 of his 8 lifetime races coming into the Belmont, so the description seemed to fit for the moment).  He and Uptowncharlybrown were complete toss-outs for me that I expected would be overbet at the windows.  I gave them no chance.

Full Results Chart from Equibase

We had noted earlier in the week that the Belmont needed a hero. Thankfully, Drosselmeyer was not affected by the off-key tone and butchered notes.  The son of Distorted Humor sports German sounding nomenclature inspired by The Nutcracker (“Herr Drosselmeyer”), so perhaps we should not have been surprised?  It is the Teutons after all who celebrate the musical talents of David Hasselhoff and persist in keeping reruns of ALF culturally relevant.

None of that previous history mattered as Drosselmeyer entered the post parade.  He looked absolutely regal with his chestnut coat showing a fine glow and his ears perked up suggesting readiness for a top performance.  If I had spent just a few more moments focusing on the trouble he had encountered in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Dwyer Stakes (Grade 2′s all), perhaps I could’ve cashed in on his 13-1 goodness?

Instead, I was stuck ripping up my First Dude and Ice Box themed tickets.  In that sense, I seem to share the fate of Villegas and Ice Box – an utter failure on Belmont Saturday!

But wait – there’s more!!!

Did anyone out there actually get to witness the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap?  Probably not, considering it wasn’t televised live anywhere.  I’m thinking there may have been a ripple in space-time that has opened up a series of tangent universes out there – where every conceivable possibility for the race has played itself out.  We seem to exist in one of  those bubbles in which an improbable outcome took place.  Winchester, an off the charts longshot, somehow managed to upset a defending 2009 Eclipse Award winner in Gio Ponti to win his second race in a row – proving that yes, definitively, Winchester is a repeater.

I don’t know who dropped the ball on this one, but to have an entire crew from ABC/ESPN on location covering the Belmont, and then to pay absolutely no attention to a Grade 1 turf race featuring the return of the top U.S. turf horse from the previous year?

Epic fail – perhaps even more so than Villegas, Ice Box, or my own god awful selections.

So where does the weekend leave us?  Just as expected, really – with more questions than answers.   I don’t think we have a clear picture of the 3-year-old division even now.  I’d still lean towards Lucky as the overall leader – but Drosselmeyer and Fly Down have moved into the discussion by finishing 1, 2 in the Belmont.  I really thought my boy First Dude was in good shape after the opening half mile – and I’d suspect we’ll see some more of him this summer as well – provided the dude abides.

Hopefully though we’ve seen the last of sub-par musical performances aimed at gen-next…and equally awful handicapping selections.

Hats off to the connections of Drosselmeyer for their big Belmont victory.  I sure hope SOMEBODY out there managed to take down that Pick 4 for $167k!!!!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown

Belmont Selections

3 06 2010

The dude abides the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes

Almost as soon as the Triple Crown season begins – it comes to a close.  In some ways it feels like just yesterday I was watching Odysseus win the Tampa Bay Derby and wishing he would earn his way into the Derby.  We all know how that played out.  In other ways it seems a lifetime has passed since Lookin at Lucky finally got the trip he deserved and staked his claim atop the 3-year-old division.

On Saturday the season winds up with the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes – but one might say that in reality the season is only beginning.  We’ve still just as many questions as we do answers, and the division as a whole (beyond Lucky’s victory) has not really shaken itself out definitively.  Much could change this weekend, but the consensus seems to be that we’ll see some fairly competitive and wide open races throughout the summer.

We’ll kick things off with our selections beginning in Race 8 – as that starts the “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence.  Technically the stakes action begins 2 races earlier in Race 6, but there’s not a whole lot to see beyond the matchup of Eightyfiveinafifty and D’funnybone.  The real action comes later.

Race 8 – The Grade 2 True North Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The True North is headlined by multiple stakes winning Custom for Carlos.  The son of More Than Ready has proved lethal at this distance with 5 wins and 2 place finishes in 7 lifetime starts.  One thing he has not done is prove victorious beyond the Grade 3 level.  That should change on Saturday.

The most likely contender that will take action at the betting windows is the French-bred Bribon – a proven Grade 1 winner that has specialized lately at the mile distance.  Prior to the races that appear on his past performances, he did run 4 times at the 6 furlong distance and was quite good – hitting the board 3 times and winning once.  Bribon is the most accomplished of the field on the Belmont main track, with 3 wins in 8 lifetime starts.

Of the rest of the field, two longer priced horses gave me pause.  Checklist exits a career best victory at Gulfstream Park in which he blew away a field of questionable quality by 11 lengths.  I don’t care who you beat – if you win a sprint by 11 lengths, you’re doing something right.  Together with Bribon, Checklist gives Todd Pletcher a formidable duo in this race.

The other horse that intrigued me was Elusive Warning.   He was no match for ‘Carlos in the G3 Toboggan and may be best used in the underneath positions of exotic wagers – but if you know me well enough you know that I love to play Alan Garcia in New York.  His bullet workout on 5/27 was a bit out of character – so I’m guessing the light bulb may have switched on here for the son of Elusive Quality.

Selections:

  • #2 Custom for Carlos (5/2*)
  • #3 Bribon (3/1)
  • #7 Elusive Warning (8/1)

Race 9 – The Grade 1 TVG Betfair Acorn – 1 Mile

The Acorn looks to be perhaps the most interesting race in the Pick 4 sequence.  Tanda is a horse I went into my handicapping fully expecting to single.  My hunch is that the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint is one of the better 3-year-old fillies in the land.  That being said, it’s hard to take a full stand on a horse that is trying a new distance on a new surface for the first time.  I’m not one that generally worries about the synthetic-to-dirt angle – it’s just that this field also came up incredibly tough.  She’s still my top choice, but this may be a tough one.

Seeking the Title was a horse I was fairly high on going into the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend.  She promptly rewarded my loyalty by tossing Kent Desormeaux and failing to officially finish the race.  Thankfully she wasn’t injured – and I’d like to see her run the race this weekend that I was expecting 3 Saturdays ago.

A horse that may get lost in the shuffle that I think warrants strong consideration here is Much Rejoicing.  The lightly raced daughter of Distorted Humor is making only her 3rd lifetime start, but I LOVE what I see in her profile.  She’s won convincingly in each race thus far, and even managed to defeat another horse I think warrants some consideration in this field in Buckleupbuttercup last out.  If she moves forward on Saturday (and look who’s aboard – my man Alan Garcia), she fits with this group.

I’m taking a stand against Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, and Amen Hallelujah, even though it would be no surprise to see any of them win as they are all capable.

Selections:

  • #2 Tanda (5/1)
  • #8 Much Rejoicing (10/1)
  • #4 Seeking the Title (10/1)

Race 10 – The Manhattan Woodford Reserve – 1 1/4 Miles

The Manhattan would become a lot more interesting if for some reason the Gio Ponti that we all knew and loved on the turf last year did not show up.  If he does, this race may be over before it’s run.   This is a fairly evenly matched field though, and all in all I decided to add in an old friend who cost me the Derby Day Pick 4 by failing to defeat General Quarters (Court Vision), and a horse that – as I had predicted in a chat on Iron Maidens the night before the Preakness – knocked me out of the Pick 6 at Pimlico in the Dixie Stakes (Strike a Deal).

Selections:

  • #1 Gio Ponti (2/1*)
  • #6 Court Vision (4/1)
  • #2 Strike a Deal (12/1)

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Belmont  - 1 1/2 Miles

Ah, the feature race of the day!  Belmont 134! The first thing that jumps out to me here is the interesting parallel to last year’s Belmont.  We went into the ’09 Belmont focused on “the Bird” in the form of Derby champion Mine That Bird, only to be wowed by the “other Bird” in Summer Bird (who oddly enough was just announced as being retired).   This year, instead of bird’s, we’ve got “dudes”, and you know what – the Dude abides.  The Dude most definitely abides.

Most of the attention will be rightly focused on the fast closing Ice Box, coming off his scintillating performance in the Derby.  My only problem with Ice Box is that the pace setup could be questionable.  First Dude looks like a possible lone speed candidate, but Spangled Star may have something to say about that.  First Dude will certainly have to go from the 11 hole, and if Spangled Star harasses him early on, one can picture the dude retorting “this will not stand, man!  This aggression will not stand!!!”

That might set things up for Ice Box, or perhaps even the “other dude” (remember – the ringer cannot look suspicious….even if filled with dirty undies).  Game On Dude should be positioned to be among those getting “first run” at First Dude and Spangled Star if in fact they do hook up on the front end.

Another closer I don’t think you can overlook in this race is Stately Victor.  The son of Ghostzapper is well-bred for this affair – and like Lucky in the Preakness could use a bit of racing help from up above.

So where do I wind up?  I’m guessing that Dude gets loose on the lead and that the others have a tough time reeling him in.  I can see Ice Box flying late just as he did at Churchill – and while I’ll definitely include him on my exotics, I’m going to make him 2nd choice.  I’m torn between Stately Victor and Game on Dude for 3rd selection, and went with the “other dude” based on the pace setup – but I’ll be using the statesmen as well.  Interactif could be somewhat interesting in here as well as he doesn’t figure to have as much left to do in the late stages of the race as others.

So, you know, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

And yes, before you ask – this means that I’m going slightly against the wishes of Otsu/Setsuko in our Belmont parody video.

Selections:

  • #11 First Dude (7/2)
  • #6 Ice Box (3/1*)
  • #8 Game On Dude (10/1)

As for that Pick 4 I’m thinking of playing?  It might go something like this:

2,3 with 2,4,8 with 1 with 5,6,8,11 ($24)

Best of luck to everyone!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Belmont needs a hero

30 05 2010

With one week to go until the 2010 Belmont Stakes, it’s time to get back in the saddle and start focusing on the race at hand.  Gone are the Derby and Preakness winners in Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky – and gone is most of the national media attention due to the absence of a Triple Crown being on the line.

With the 3-year-old division still essentially up for grabs – and with the bulk of the summer racing action yet to come – might the time be right for a colt to rise to the occasion?  Despite the lack of star power, the race itself could setup to be very intriguing.  The place horses from each of the first two Classics is back – Ice Box and First Dude.  Add into the mix dangerous looking runners like Fly Down and Stately Victor, and fan favorites Drosselmeyer and Uptowncharlybrown and suddenly you have the recipe for a pretty good betting race.

Here we take a humorous look at the plight of racing on the eve of the Belmont.  In this clip, an effeminate Setsuko plays the role of Otsu to Ice Box’s samurai – explaining the desperate situation and pleading with the son of Pulpit to return from the race triumphant.

It’s not quite Hitler and Odysseus – but few things are.

Enjoy!

Note:  If for some reason Youtube takes the above video down – which would be par for the course with my creations – there’s a backup version saved here on Daily Motion.

In case you’re wondering about the whole Otsu/Setsuko thing – no, I haven’t made one of my trademark faux pas and confused the gender of an effeminately named male again.  Think of it as a convenient (for this video clip) play on the fact that Setsuko is usually considered a female name in Japan.  I should also point out that no – I do not quite subscribe to the sentiments of Otsu/Setsuko in this video clip as I feel that Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down, and Stately Victor are all capable of winning the race.

Which brings us to the most important part of the post – our first chance to gauge public opinion and see where the loyalties are lining up for the big race on Saturday.  You know the drill – sound off like you’ve got a pair!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Sixth Sense – Kentucky Derby Rankings: 4/3/2010

4 04 2010

With only 4 Saturdays remaining before the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, it’s time to once again wade into the murky, otherworldly ether of the 3-year-old division of thoroughbred horse racing and attempt to find reason.  That task has become easier thanks to the HD broadcasts of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby on NBC last Saturday and the jaw dropping 109 Beyer earning performance of Eskendereya in the Wood.

The victory solidified the colt with the Egyptian name as the top contender and most likely favorite for the first Saturday in May.  That doesn’t mean it’s a slam dunk that Eskendereya will win the Derby. Remember, just last year we were in virtually the same position after I Want Revenge wowed us with an impressive Wood victory only to wind up being a late scratch on Derby morning. For now though, it’s clear that Eskendereya deserves to be considered the top of the class.

Of course, Eskendereya wasn’t the only show in town.  American Lion wired the field to win the Grade 3 Illinois Derby, and across the nation in California Sidney’s Candy turned in another brilliant front running performance that featured an odd, nearly catastrophic ride for the favored Lookin at Lucky.  Evidently Garrett Gomez went after Victor Espinoza (who was aboard longshot Who’s Up) after the race.

The victories by American Lion, Eskendereya, and Sidney’s Candy bring up another question for the 2010 Derby:  pace.  So far it looks like any number of contenders on the graded earnings list will be on-or-near the lead.  At some point that has to factor into the equation when ranking these horses.

That being said, I’m not sure if it’s going to matter, and there’s simply no way to ignore the dominating nature of Eskendereya’s performance.  Without hesitation, I move the colt above my beloved Odysseus in this, our sixth installment of the Derby rankings.

  • #1 Eskendereya

Monster performances in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G1 Wood Memorial establish the Todd Pletcher trained son of Giant’s Causeway as THE horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby.  Worthy favorite.  If there is a weakness, perhaps he will be more vulnerable with a hotly contested pace?

  • #2 Odysseus

I may be dropping him from my top spot, and a sub-par performance this weekend could leave him on the outside of the top 20 on the graded earnings list headed to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m loyal to my favorites – and there’s been something about this chestnut beauty that has stirred my emotions since I first spotted him after the allowance score at Tampa Bay Downs.  I’d prefer the Arkansas Derby be his final prep, but it looks like he could face Interactif and Aikenite in the Toyota Blue Grass instead.  God go with you wherever your travels may take you, big red horse!

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Like many, there was a moment in the Santa Anita Derby where I feared for the sport that one of our bigger 3-year-old “stars” was injured.  Thankfully, it appears that the son of Smart Strike came out of the race okay, although his jockey was a bit fired up.  Bob Baffert didn’t get the trip he wanted in the Santa Anita Derby, but the gutsy way  he fought back for 3rd after being nearly stopped on the track showed what this horse is all about.  He may be a bit crazy in the head, but he’s the kind of guy you’re always going to respect in a fight.

  • #4 Sidney’s Candy

It feels almost sacrilegious to rank a “speed horse” 4th on this list.  I’m sure there will be numerous folks pointing out the folly for having done so, without even reading what follows.  The fact of the matter is that I’m not putting this horse here because I believe he has the 4th best shot to win the Derby.  I’m putting him here because I think he has earned the right to be ranked among the top 4 horses prepping for the Derby.  It looks to me like the son of Candy Ride can answer the distance question, but the way the Derby is shaping up the pace scenario will likely be an altogether different story.

  • #5  Ice Box

Given the potential pace setup for the Kentucky Derby, it seems as though a Grade 1 winning closer belongs in the top 5, even if he was dusted by Eskendereya in the G2 Fountain of Youth in February.  He was “off slow” that day, and may be in better form now.  His running style, his experience against the likely favorite, his G1 prestige, and the likely pace outlook for Kentucky Derby 136 all suggest he belongs in the discussion.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

The more I see of this colt, the more I like him.  Won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46 over Conveyance and Tempted to Tapit.  The  son of Distorted Humor seems to be peaking at the right time and I love his fast improving form.  Some question whether he is headed for a bounce in the KY Derby, and have suggested he’s just an inflated G3 winner (like Odysseus), but my gut tells me this is a better race horse than many yet realize.

  • #8 Awesome Act

Had the second worst trip of the day last Saturday (with top honors going to Lookin at Lucky) after being under a stranglehold from jockey Julien Leparoux in the early goings of the G1 Wood Memorial.  My guess is they were trying to force him to relax some early on.  A gorgeous looking son of Awesome Again, on his best stuff I think he’s a much better horse than what we saw, despite the thrashing the entire field took.  Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams, and Awesome Act were fighting it out for the minor awards, and sir Awesome was able to hang on for show.  Needs a better trip to be a player in the Derby.

  • #9 Noble’s Promise

Will likely continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield horse of this list that gets no respect from outsiders.  In fact, I think he and Jackson Bend are the most routinely disrespected horses  of the entire crop, which is a shame considering these two give it their all each time they touch the track.  Yes, smart guys, I know he’s a son of Cuvee, but evidently someone has forgotten to tell this horse he doesn’t belong.  Over $700k  in graded earnings and a shot in the G1 Arkansas Derby up next.

  • #10 Interactif

Stays on this list because we need another off-the-pace type and he probably has as good a shot as any to win the Blue Grass this weekend and further solidify his graded earnings qualifications. I toyed with adding Setsuko to the top 10, but it looks like that one is “on the bubble.”  This colt could make some noise on national television this weekend.

Honorable Mention:

  • Blind Luck – likely Oaks favorite would seem to make some sense if they gave her a shot – she could probably beat many of these colts.
  • Jackson Bend – colt just keeps on hitting exactas – despite all the haters.
  • Pleasant Prince – 2nd place finisher of the G1 Florida Derby
  • Super Saver – will look for an improved performance this weekend
  • Drosselmeyer – Had a nice effort in the G2 Louisiana Derby
  • Dean’s Kitten – Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • Setsuko – closed well in the Santa Anita Derby, but may miss the graded earnings cutoff.  Was on our initial top list of the year.
  • Devil May Care – Todd Pletcher says the Bonnie Miss winner deserves to be in the discussion.

Up next up are the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.  We’ll have selections for each race available by Friday evening.  Last weekend 8 out of the 9 horses we gave out in our Derby Fever selections wound up hitting the board, with two top choice winners (Eskendereya and American Lion) along with a 2nd choice winner in Sidney’s Candy.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Endorsement, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

The Fifth Column – Updated Kentucky Derby Rankings

28 03 2010

It gives me great pleasure to unveil our fifth installment of the weekly Kentucky Derby rankings madness.  The weekend saw the defeats of Discreetly Mine and Conveyance from our previous Derby ranking list, and the emergence of a potential fifth column of new contenders looking to close the gap between themselves and the leading candidates.

In winning the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week prior.  Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes.  Over on Twitter, Valerie from Foolish Pleasure gave out Mission Impazible as the other Pletcher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  Congrats to all of you on your fine selections.  As for me, my picks were decidedly le stinky: Ron the Greek, Conveyance, and Northern Giant.

Obviously not my best stuff, and needless to say when I return from a business trip to Phoenix this week, I’ll be looking to make amends in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby this Saturday.

  • #1 Odysseus

In all truth is probably best considered a notch below Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, but this has been my guy since mid-February, so I have to keep him here until he gives me reason to think otherwise.  Two portents of impending danger this week were the decision to point the son of Malibu Moon to the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the big ride jockey Rajiv Maragh had aboard Mission Impazible.  The latter sets up a potential decision for Maragh that impact Odysseus greatly.  One last omen is that he will run into an accomplished turf/synthetic horse with a good late kick in Interactif in the Toyota Blue Grass on 4/10.  My eyes, my heart, and my gut still tell me this is a real race horse.  If he’s the horse I think he is, he’ll catch the earnings he needs in the Blue Grass to secure a starting spot in the Derby.  He doesn’t need to win, but he’ll need a good trip to keep his sharp jockey on his back.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Wood might come up tough, so he may be tested this weekend.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Might be the best 3-year-old in the nation at the moment. Overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. According to the most recent news from Bloodhorse, he’s 90% certain for the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.  Will the moves from synthetics to dirt and back again be an issue, or is this colt simply too talented to be bothered by the shipping?

  • #4 Awesome Act

Remains my 2nd favorite 3-year-old on this list behind Odysseus.  Good looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial this weekend.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  Now I consider him my Hard Spun of this crop (given that Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Lucky this year’s Street Sense as defending 2-year-old champion).

  • #5 Ice Box

Proves that this time of year is all about the what have you done for me lately approach.  Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  That’ll give you a spot in the top 5 for now.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him the fastest rising horse on the list.  Yet another contender for the ubiquitous Pletcher barn in their quest for a first Derby victory.  The Louisiana Derby was a strange race to me.  It looked fast early and a little ugly late, but Mission Impazible was running well through the wire.  Colt gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

I’ll probably take some flak for being so generous here, but let me make the case for this horse, as I think another contender just tossed their hat into the ring before our eyes.  He won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46.  In doing so, he defeated one of our “Cris Charter” (without the “h”) types in Conveyance, and the popular Tempted to Tapit.  He’s a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare (Charmed Gift), so I don’t think distance will be a concern.  Seems to be peaking at the perfect time to potentially make some noise.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

Will evidently have to deal with Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday, which might be a tall order.  Many question whether this horse can get the longer distances – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse.

  • #9 Interactif

To many observers, this was the most impressive horse of the San Felipe, despite being defeated by Sidney’s Candy.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but I’d rather know definitively going into the first Saturday in May.  Will go into the Toyota Blue Grass this weekend with a great chance to pull a victory over Odysseus on the synthetic Keeneland surface.  Just remember that at one point in 2007, Dominican beat Street Sense in the same race.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Without a doubt, the standout Rodney Dangerfield of our list.  Depending on how you look at him, he’s either a step away from having defeated Lookin at Lucky, or he’s a son of Cuvee that either can’t find a way to win the close ones and/or won’t get the distance of the Derby.  He seems like an overachiever to me, and he’s always right there in the mix.  Maybe folks forgot to tell him he’s just a son of Cuvee? Will face off against Dublin, Pulsion, and others in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Honorable Mention List (in no particular order):

  • Pleasant Prince - 2nd place finisher behind Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
  • Schoolyard Dreams – if Odysseus is my #1, this horse almost had him in a fittingly epic photo finish end to the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Drosselmeyer – Likely not Derby bound, but put in a good run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and could be a player for the Preakness.
  • Caracortado – is the world still yours, Scarface?
  • Super Saver – needed a race going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • D’Funnybone – accomplished 1-turn horse being whispered as a potential Preakness candidate.
  • Dean’s Kitten - Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Jackson Bend – another Rodney Dangerfield type who gets no respect, but will get a crack at Esky and Awesome Act in the Wood this weekend.

Coming up this Saturday, April 3 is a pair of prestigious Grade 1 races in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby.  Also on tap is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Endorsement, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Intearactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Episode IV: A New Hope

22 03 2010

With 40 days to go until the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take another look at the top contenders and see if we can make any sense of things.  The past weekend saw the emergence of a long awaited true closer in Ice Box with his victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby over the likes of Rule and Lentenor.  We also saw D’Funnybone do his thing at the 7 furlong distance, and while it’s always fun to watch him at work, the word on the street for now is that the Preakness would be his likely destination this May.

To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings.  The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest.  Positions 5 through 10 are where the real arguments seem to be.  There’s probably a good dozen or more runners one could consider for those spots, and certainly there will be more in the next couple of weeks.

For now, doing our best Steve Haskin impression, here’s where we stand on the matter:

  • #1 Odysseus

No surprises here.  The big red colt who began his Kentucky Derby Odyssey in relative obscurity and burst onto the scene with a heroic effort against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.  The only real question now is what they’ll do with him over the next 7 weeks.  Rumors fly around that he may be “trained up” to the Derby, although the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Bluegrass have been mentioned as possibilities (so was the Wood at one point).  From the moment we first noticed him,  the similarities have been apparent between he and another big red colt that many of us developed strong affections for.  He could be entering the Derby even greener than Curlin was – which isn’t a good thing.  I won’t argue with those that have him ranked lower.  This is my horse, and I’m sticking with him through thick and thin.  Even if the Preakness might be a wiser, (slightly) longer term goal.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The  horse most likely to be found atop other Derby watch lists, and for good reason.  The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Classy son of Smart Strike (aren’t they all?) who overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Up next could be the Arkansas Derby on 4/10 at Oaklawn.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Impressive looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  I learned my lesson.  Hopefully anyone else that thought like me has also learned.  He’ll be up against it facing Esky and the Wood field, but this colt passes the eye test for sure and could still wind up being the best of the bunch.  He’s my 2nd favorite horse on this list (behind my obvious super-fave).  If Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Awesome Act my Hard Spun.

How awesome is Awesome Act?  Well, he’s awesome – there’s no doubt of that, but nothing can be as awesome as this:

As awesome as Awesome Act and the others are, they will never be as awesome as this.

  • #5 Ice Box

Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  Say hello to the top 5 Ice Box.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.  He’s got one other thing working in his corner as well; trainer Nick Zito.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, and if he can relax quite a bit, he’d suddenly be a lot more interesting.  Likely headed to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

  • #7 Conveyance

Someone has to get our “Rodney Dangerfield award” this week, and though he doesn’t technically fall in our rankings, he’s as good a candidate as any to nominate for getting no respect.  Of course he’s also unbeaten, which means he’s an honorary recipient of our weekly Cris Carter award for being an “all he does is win horse races” type of runner.  Baffert is reportedly keeping him on target for the Sunland Park Derby this weekend.  You might remember that race from last year thanks to a little horse named Mine That Bird.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I continue to question whether this horse can get the distance – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse when all is said and done.  We’ll find out more in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/3.

  • #9 Interactif

While I loved this colt’s move in the San Felipe when he came charging for Sidney’s Candy late in the race, I’m still not certain this is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but wouldn’t you rather know that going into the first Saturday in May?  Stays on the list for now, but like the others has serious questions to be answered.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

I toyed with ranking Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince, or even Caracortado here, but ultimately thought it was Noble’s Promise who deserved the ranking based on merit.  I’m troubled that the horse has a knack for finishing just behind the winners, but it’s important to note he was just a head behind the highly regarded ‘Lucky in the Rebel and just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Likely pointing to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

Honorable Mention:

The list of other horses we’re keeping our eye on is nearly unending, but some noteworthy names we haven’t given up on yet and would not be surprised to see move forward again would include (in no particular order):

  • Connemara
  • Schoolyard Dreams
  • Pleasant Prince
  • Dublin
  • Super Saver
  • Rule
  • Drosselmeyer
  • Jackson Bend
  • Tempted to Tapit
  • Caracortado

Up next are the Lane’s End, the Louisiana Derby, and the Sunland Derby.  Check back later in the week for coverage and selections for each race.  Until then, may the horse be with you.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy


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