Triple Crown « THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance. I make no apologies for the effects that field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this. Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby. This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual. Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick. There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup. Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board. As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

#2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
#7 Visavis (4/1)
#1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th. If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price. Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this. Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year. Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected. I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

#5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
#3 Fantasia (5/1)
#6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty. She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6. I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez. Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way. I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here. You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic, so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

#2 Warbling (8/1)
#3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
#1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.” Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage. My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy. I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

#7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
#3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
#11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse. I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve. The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff. I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well. Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories. The x-factor of the race? How about Loup Breton? His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful. As for fan favorite General Quarters? I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

#5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
#3 Court Vision (9/5*)
#7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again. Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor. In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year. Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead. Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance. If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable. Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back? There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible. I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense. As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race. That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole. I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price. Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well. I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race. At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected. Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix. Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them. I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

#16 Awesome Act (10/1)
#6 Stately Victor (30/1)
#11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers! :)

Comments : 9 Comments »
Tags: battle of hastings, Churchill Downs, derby bets, derby picks, derby wagers, Devil May Care, horse racing, Hot Dixie Chick, Kentucky Derby, sports, Stately Victor, Super Saver, Warbling, Warriro's Reward
Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Revenge of the Bird; Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

6 06 2009

Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

For the second time in 3 years we’ve had each of the Triple Crown races won by different horses. In 2007 it was Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches. Now in 2009 it’s Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird. We mentioned in the pre-race handicapping that it would not be a surprise if the “other Birdstone” prevailed. With all of the attention focused on Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, and Dunkirk, the colt slipped under the radar and provided jockey Kent Desormeaux (who was white hot, winning 4 races on the day including 3 in a row at one point in the early going) with a perfect opportunity to atone for the disappointment of Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

Post time favorite Mine That Bird did what we thought he’d do. He ran his heart out and gave his best effort, but ultimately the ride by jockey Calvin Borel raised some eyebrows as many began questioning whether he asked the son of Birdstone for his run about a furlong or so too soon. It looked like Birdstone was a bit jumpy in the post parade, and about midway through the race he began giving Borel a bit of a fight, seeming to want to go at the horses to his front. After the job Borel has done this Triple Crown season, I think the guy deserves to be given some slack even if he did move a bit early. He’s only human, and it did look like the horse wanted to go.

Meanwhile, jockey Kent Desormeaux expertly piloted Summer Bird through a run that looked very Borel/Mine That Bird-ish. Patiently waiting at the back of the pack and positioned along the rail, Summer Bird eventually found a way through to the center of the track at the top of the stretch and then gunned down the dueling Mine That Bird and Dunkirk as Charitable Man began to fade. For a moment at the top of the stretch it looked like Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man were going to give us a 3 horse battle right down to the wire. You can hear the wind being taken out of the crowd though as it became clear that none of these runners was going to resist Summer Bird’s powerful charge.

Dunkirk also turned in a gutsy performance, setting the early pace through splits of :23.31 and :47.13, much faster than many had anticipated. Many (including me) had expected Charitable Man and perhaps Miner’s Escape to set the early pace, but these two wound up taking behind Dunkirk in the early going along with Mr. Hot Stuff.

For being a longshot, Summer Bird sure made quite the post parade impression. I managed to tweet that he looked sensational as the field approached the gate. Luckily, at Amy’s urging, we put a quick win wager on him at the last second that came back quite lucrative. Summer Bird crossed the wire in 2:27.31 and returned $25.80 for the win after being sent off at odds of 11/1. It’s a good thing too, as we needed that win bet, having been bounced from the Pick 4 long before the Belmont when Gabby’s Golden Gal became the latest 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to shine on the center stage, joining Payton d’Oro and the super filly Rachel Alexandra.

With the Belmont in the books, the Triple Crown season is now officially history. Hats off to Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird for becoming the latest champions. Let’s hope that this crop of 3-year-olds continues to shine on the race track. It’ll be good for racing if Mine That Bird can bounce back later this year. The “little gelding that could” is still a sensational runner. Hopefully the distance of the Belmont didn’t zap his energy. He’s probably earned himself a lengthy layoff at this point to rest and recover. Without a future standing stud, his connections will likely keep him racing as long as he’s healthy.

Speaking of healthy, can we all breathe a bit of a collective sigh of relief now? We made it through the campaign without any serious injuries while in the national spotlight (although we did lose some good ones along the trail to injury, including but not limited to The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and I Want Revenge). We watched nervously as a full Derby field trudging along in the slop at Churchill. We argued about the safety and soundness of a filly taking on the boys in the Preakness. And now we’ve had the grueling 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont, and as far as I’m aware at this moment in time all of the runners from these races have returned in relatively fine shape. Maybe we can finally move past some of the more recent tragedies the sport has suffered? Not that we’d ever want to forget…more so from a closure standpoint. If not move past these memories completely, then at least take a step forward.

So where does this crop of 3-year-olds rank in comparison to those of recent memory? It’s still too early to say for sure. Probably somewhere between the talented group from 2007 and the relatively weak group of 2008 (besides Big Brown) would be my guess. Now we’ll see how they do when they begin to take on older horses for the first times this summer. Usually that’s a fairly significant challenge, but the ranks of the quality older horses have been severely thinned in recent years.

At the end of the day, I still feel confident in saying that the best horses in the nation are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. If the versatile Einstein can take the Stephen Foster, then he’d certainly belong in the discussion as well. The point is that there’s plenty of room for runners like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and any of the other Triple Crown competitors to come back and pick up additional graded stakes wins throughout the summer and fall.

For now though, congratulations to trainer Tim Ice and the connections for Summer Bird, and a big round of applause to Kent Desormeaux for his perfect ride. It may not have been the ending many expected, but it was still a beauty to behold.

And to think….right around the corner we’ve got Saratoga and Del Mar.

Comments : 14 Comments »
Tags: Belmont, Birdstone, calvin borel, charitable man, Kent Desormeaux, summer bird, tim ice, upset
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont 141 Picks

5 06 2009

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

#1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
#2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
#4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
#5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
#6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
#7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
#8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
#9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
#10 Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season. It’s hard to believe we’re already here. Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself. Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash? Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said? You’ve got to love “the bird.” Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May. After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta. Big mistake. He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny. For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.” Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him. In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us. I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant.

He ought to run away with this one, right?

It’s a foregone conclusion, right?

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?

“Not so fast!”

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races. We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get. The trouble is (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race? I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out. You know he’ll do that much. He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be. I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him. Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though. He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide. Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is. The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough. It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory). Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career. He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle. Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires.

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch. When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one. We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come. A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch. That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs. Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace.

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby. After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore. Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk? He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance. If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here. I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont. Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half. Some just take longer than others.” My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance. Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race. If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field). All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th. My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird. If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance. If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird? He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race. Don’t we see this happen all the time? Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and prevails. All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so. Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race? I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th. That means 13 other runners finished behind him. What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race. Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont. This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory. He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again. I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy. Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14.

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov. We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.” It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot Spitzer. Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102. I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter. Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff. The Tiznow of the field. Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board. The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt. At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself. I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped. You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts. NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow! Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now. What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself. It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat?

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field. No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary. I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade. It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered.

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through. The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise. Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

#7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
#6 Charitable Man (3/1)
#1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours. It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.

Comments : 8 Comments »
Tags: Belmont picks, Belmont selections, calvin borel, charitable man, chocolate candy, mr. hot stuff, summer bird
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont Day; Undercard Selections

4 06 2009

It’s not often that horse racing fans are treated to a weekend quite like this. Not only do we get the 141st running of the Belmont, but the entire card for Saturday is a star studded affair filled with quality runners. Mine That Bird, Forever Together, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justwhistledixie…they are all here. What’s more, guaranteed $1 million pools await both Pick 4 and Pick 6 players. If there’s ever been a day outside of the Breeders’ Cup that exemplified the whole idea behind the “Take Back Saturday” initiative, it’s right here, right now.

Obviously I’m jumping the gun a bit by posting my picks a full 48 hours in advance of post time. Needless to say late changes and scratches could totally alter the complexion of these races (and indeed the selections themselves). Even worse, one cannot be certain what Mother Nature may have in store. As of this writing, current forecasts for Elmont, NY (according to weather.com) call for “periods of heavy rain” on Friday, followed by a “mostly sunny” Saturday with highs near 77°.

Let’s hope for the best then and assume that Saturday will be a glorious day for racing, befitting of all the talented competitors, equine and human, answering the call to post.

DO NOT make the mistake though of overlooking this undercard. It is jam packed with interesting races. What follows are my initial thoughts, and while I rank my top 3 selections, I’ve decided to forego offering actual wager advice. My reason for doing so is that, in all honesty, my wagers tend to change once I get a look at the horses in the post parade. This means that any selections I give out here could be played by someone reading along, whereas my own wagers have evolved. I try to “tweet” these changes whenever possible, but as one can imagine that’s not always so.

Besides, as I always say, one should do their own handicapping if they are wagering a single dime. It’s your money, so you’d be wise to make sure you’re betting your picks. Not to mention you don’t have to wager to watch horse racing. You can be a fan of the horses and not wager a single dime. It’s still the best show in town.

What then is the value of my selections and why do I bother sharing? Because…we’re horseplayers. And if we’re not that we’re at least horse racing fans. We’re the most opinionated, stubborn mules the world has ever seen. Besides, we love to share our opinions. Speaking of which, make sure you check out the rest of the TBA bloggers as well, as no doubt we’ll be all over the place with our coverage. Quite a few of us “tweet” as well, if you’re so inclined.

With that in mind, I want to hear as many selections as possible from commentors. Everything you’ve got. C’mon peeps. It’s Belmont time! Sound off like you’ve got a pair!!!

Here’s a closer look at each of the races comprising the Pick 6 sequence, beginning with the True North Handicap (G2) in race 6 and ending with the Manhattan Handicap (G1) in race 10. The Belmont, which concludes both wagering sequences, will be the subject of it’s own post. It’s the Belmont for godsakes…it deserves it’s own post.

Race 6: The 31st running of the True North Handicap (G2) – 6 Furlongs

#1 Benny the Bull (E. Prado/ R. Dutrow) 5/2
#2 Silver Edition (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 8/1
#3 Two Step Salsa (G. Gomez/ S. bin Suroor) 3/1
#4 Sixthirteen (E. Coa/ M. Hushion) 12/1
#5 Desert Key (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
#6 Fabulous Strike (R. Dominguez/ T. Beattie) 2/1*

Selections:

#1 Benny the Bull (5/2)

#6 Fabulous Strike (2/1)

#5 Desert Key (6/1)

We kick things off in the Pick 6 sequence with the True North Handicap. The race marks the return of one of the most popular sprinters in North America, #1 Benny the Bull. Last year it took Benny until the final few hundred yards to kick into high gear before he was able to run down Man of Danger and Abraaj in the stretch. He ought to get a decent pace to run at here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all given both the 6-year-old son of Lucky Lionel’s popularity and his human connections (particularly trainer Rick Dutrow) if he wound up going to post as the favorite. Currently he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #6 Fabulous Strike. The question will be whether Benny is in sharp enough form to prevail after being on the shelf since last July. If his workout tab is any indication (and really, what else have we to go on barring last minute eyeball handicapping during the post parade?), then he appears to be ready to roll. His last 3 workouts in particular being the most encouraging.

Fabulous Strike ought to be on the gas early on, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win. Still, the son of Smart Strike would appear to be the one the rest of the field will need to catch in order to get their picture taken in the winner’s circle. #5 Desert Key hasn’t been out of the Exacta in his last 8 races and looks like a “must use” horse underneath in the exotics. You might be able to get away with using Benny the Bull as a single on your exotic wagers, but I’d probably cover Fabulous Strike as well just to be safe.

Race 7: The 16th running of the Just A Game (G1) – 1 Mile (Turf)

#1 Carribean Sunset (R. Dominguez/ C. Clement) 6/1
#2 Raw Silk (P. Lopez/ T. Albertrani) 10/1
#3 Captain’s Lover (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 8/1
#4 I Lost My Choo (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 15/1
#5 Forever Together (J. Leparoux/ J. Sheppard) 6/5*
#6 Modern Look (G. Gomez/ R. Frankel) 8/1
#7 Diamondrella (R. Maragh/ A. Penna Jr.) 8/1
#8 My Princess Jess (C. Velasquez/ B. Tagg) 5/1

Selections:

#5 Forever Together (6/5*)

#6 Modern Look (8/1)

#7 Diamondrella (8/1)

The Just A Game features the current top turf female in the nation, Forever Together. The 5-year-old daughter of Belong to Me and current Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion has won her last 3 races, as well as 4 of her last 5 overall. She seems quite lethal at any distance from a mile onward, and boasts a 3-2-0-1 record from today’s mile distance. Clearly she’s the horse to beat. The question is whether any of the runners in this field have what it takes to potentially pull the upset?

Depending on what kind of impression she makes in the post parade, it migh be worth taking a ride on #6 Modern Look. She’ll likely offer some value as her running lines don’t necessarily jump off the page at you. However, take note of a few key items. For starters, she was favored in her U.S. debut back in March and ran a decent race, all things considered, finishing 2nd. Certainly she’s got a right to improve. Her workout lines also suggest she’s at least enjoying her Belmont surroundings. Most importantly, however, note the runners she finished 4th to last May at Longchamp (France): Zarkava, Goldikova, and Halfway to Heaven. Zarkava or Goldikova would be obvious singles in this race in my opinion, even with Forever Together. With that in mind, I’m going to use Modern Look as my 2nd choice behind the favorite.

Looking deeper, #7 Diamondrella has gutted out 5 consecutive victoires going back to last June, including her only start of 2009 in the Giants Causeway at Keeneland in April. This will obviously be quite a class hike for her as she faces off against the favorite, but you’ve got to like that sort of consistent form. The obvious question will be whether she can handle the extra distance as she seems to be more of a sprinter. #2 Raw Silk will likely be the pace and should enjoy the mile distance of the Just A Game. One also can’t overlook the runners on the bookends. #1 Carribean Sunset was favored in her U.S. debut last month in the Beaugay (G3), but came up 1 3/4 lenths short behind #8 My Princess Jess. I could see these two fighting for a minor award.

Race 8: The 25th running of the Woody Stephens (G2) – 7 Furlongs

#1 Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 2/1*
#1A Everyday Heroes (J.C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 2/1*
#2 This Ones for Phil (G. Gomez/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
#3 Gone Astray (E. Prado/ C. McGaughey III) 15/1
#4 Munnings (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
#5 Triumphant Flight (K. Desormeaux/ E. Kruljac) 15/1
#6 Hello Broadway (R. Dominguez/ B. Tagg) 12/1
#7 Kensei (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 15/1
#8 Hull (M. Mena/ D. Romans) 3/1

Selections:

#2 This Ones for Phil (7/2)

#1 Regal Ransom/ #1A Everyday Heroes (2/1*)

#8 Hull (3/1)

The Woody Stephens has bit of a “hey, whatever happened to so-and-so?” feel, as a couple of characters return to the spotlight after running a bit under the radar recently. Trainer Rick Dutrow sends out the “Beyer freak” #2 This Ones for Phil. You might remember this guy as the dude who improved his Beyer figure by 39 points in the Sunshine Millions Dash back in January. Since then he was taken off the Triple Crown trail and kept at the shorter distances, where he’s proved he can consistently churn out impressive speed figures. He hasn’t been able to win since January, but he has run into some pretty good runners in Quality Road, Big Drama, and Mr. Fantasy along the way. He should find this field more to his liking, as well as the tricky 7 furlong distance that he’s proven he can handle (albeit through a disqualification of Big Drama in the Swale).

The coupled entry of #1 Regal Ransom and #1A Everyday Heroes looks quite formidable here as well. The interseting thing is that I actually liked Regal Ransom quite a bit leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m now more interested in Everyday Heroes, who is undefeated in 4 lifetime starts. Then there’s #8 Hull, who at one point was considered a Preakness contender before being pointed to the Woody Stephens instead. I think you’d be wise to cover all of these runners in the exotics as this appears to be a bit more open a race than the first two in the sequence.

Another horse you’ve got to consider here is #4 Munnings. Remember this guy? At one point last year he was one of the more highly regarded juveniles. After disappearing for many months, he resurfaced at the allowance level and promptly posted a career best Beyer figure (101) in running a respectable 2nd in his first start of 2009. Although he’s yet to win at the 7 furlong distance, he is a Speightstown colt, which means you’d be wise to consider him at any sprint distance. Of the entire field, he’s the runner I’m most interested in getting an actual look at in the post parade. I didn’t rank him as one of my top 3 selections, but he’s an intriguing runner in here. The only trouble is that he might get hammered at the windows due to that triple digit Beyer. If the value is there, and if he makes an impression in the paddock, he could well be the play.

Race 9: The 79th running of the Acorn (G1) – 1 Mile

#1 Casanova Move (J. Lezcano/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
#2 Gabby’s Golden Gal (J. Castellano/ B. Baffert) 15/1
#3 Be Fair (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
#4 Funny Moon (A. Garcia/ C. Clement) 8/1
#5 Doremifasollatido (E. Coa/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
#6 Livin Lovin (R. Dominguez/ S. Klesaris) 15/1
#7 Dream Play (R. Migliore/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
#8 Justwhistledixie (J. Leparoux/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
#9 Four Gifts (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 6/1

Selections:

#8 Justwhistledixie (8/5*)

#4 Funny Moon (8/1)

#7 Dream Play (6/1)

The Acorn would seem to be all about #8 Justwhistledixie. If there’s one 3-year-old filly in the nation capable of running respectably against Rachel Alexandra, it’s her. Unfortunately, she scratched from the Kentucky Oaks last month due to the sloppy track conditions. We all know what happened next as Queen Rachel romped by over 20 lengths and caught the eye of Jess Jackson. The rest is history. With no Rachel to contend with today, Justwhistledixie looks like a clear favorite that those looking for a life changing score in the exotics will have to hope they can get past.

Of all the contenders, I’d give the improving #4 Funny Moon the best shot to pull the upset. Not only is she improving rapidly, but her final times at the mile distance in her last two victories would appear to stack up very well against this field. Also note that she’ll have Alan Garcia aboard for the trip, who also piloted Justwhistledixie in 3 of her 5 lifetime victories. If she looks live in the post parade, she could be just the type of horse that helps blow up the payouts in the exotics.

#1 Casanova Move has had the misfortune of running into ‘Dixie several times in recent memory, and seems to find a way to hit the board underneath. It would be nice to see #5 Doremifasollatido in the mix at the end, if only to hear her name in the stretch call, but I’m not sure if the mile distance will be to her liking. On the other hand, #6 Livin Lovin, #7 Dream Play, and #3 Be Fair all have victories at the distance, and are lightly raced enough that we’ve still got room for improvement. Dream Play and Livin Lovin can also boast of being graded stakes winners. Same goes for #9 Four Gifts. This one might not be as obvious as it appears on paper is all I’m sayin’, although I do expect the favorite to prevail.

Race 10: The 108th running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)

#1 Court Vision (R. Dominguez/ W. Mott) 4/1
#1A Optimer (R. Rodriguez/ S. Dutrow) 4/1
#2 Champs Elysees (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1
#3 Marsh Slide (J. Castellano/ N. Drysdale) 20/1
#4 Premium Gold (E. Prado/ J. Kimmel) 20/1
#5 Gio Ponti (G. Gomez/ C. Clement) 7/2
#6 Wesley (K. Desormeaux/ M. Hennig) 12/1
#7 Senior (M. Luzzi/ J. Delozier) 50/1
#8 Better Talk Now (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 15/1
#9 Cosmonaut (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 6/1
#10 Interpatation (R. Maragh/ R. Barbara) 20/1
#11 Lauro (A. Starke/ A. Wohler) 15/1
#12 Cowboy Cal (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1*
#2B Zambezi Sun (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1

Selections:

#6 Wesley (12/1)

#12 Cowboy Cal (3/1*)

#1 Court Vision (4/1)

I’m going to come right out and say something that probably sounds like heathen blasphemy on Belmont Day. The Manhattan Handicap is the “race of the day”, by far, on paper. Just look at this field! I’ll start with “Blackie” (#8 Better Talk Now), a former turf champion and over $4 million lifetime earner. You’ve no idea how happy it would make me if Blackie found a way to get it done on Saturday. I’ve loved this horse for years, and whlie he’s clearly in the autumn of his distinguished career, it warms my heart whenever I see his name among the entries. Over the past year I’ve also become quite fond of both #1 Court Vision and #12 Cowboy Cal on the turf. Cowboy Cal in particular has quietly become one of my favorite runners. I was hoping to get more than 3/1 on him here, and was a bit shocked that he was the favorite on the morning line, but I suspect bettors will be spread out here offering decent value on whomever you wind up on.

Despite my affinity for these runners, I’m going to pick a shocker here for the upset. #6 Wesley looks primed and ready to run a big one. I saw this guy on Preakness day at Pimlico and was quite taken with him in the post parade fo the Dixie. If you didn’t see that race, it’s worth watching again. Wesley ran well enough to win, only he was forced to steady several times on the turns. His running line merely denotes “6wd 1/8″, but it was much more than just being wide. I left thinking he was by far the best horse of that field, despite finishing 3rd. I’m expecting a big improvement this weekend, and I’m encouraged to see his latest workout at Belmont on 5/31 was a sharp 4 furlongs in 47 and 3. This is a salty group, and he’s obviously got to prove he can get the extra distance here, but based on that wide trip in the Dixie I’d argue that he’s already been a mile and a quarter! #5 Gio Ponti, #2 Champs Elysees, and # 9 Cosmonaut could all make some noise in here as well. Depending on how you’re playing your exotics, this might be another wise spot to go deep and spread on the coverage.

Best of luck to all. With any luck you’re still alive in your exotics as we get set for Belmont 141.

Comments : 6 Comments »
Tags: Belmont selections, belmont undercard, calvin borel, charitable man, just a game, justwhistledixie, manhattan handicap, take back saturday, the acorn, wesley, woody stephens
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Rachel Alexandra Rant; no Rachel in the Belmont

29 05 2009

It’s official. Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont. This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown. Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress).

First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again. You know that he wanted to showcase his filly in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory. Like I’ve said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra. In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow; sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage. In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made.

The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net. Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking. Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today. The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between. What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.

The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this:

“I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”

Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt. Nobody wants to see that. It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts. Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)? They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated. I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe. How’d that one turn out? How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile? And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar? I just don’t get it. Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back? Because she’s a “she”? See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being. The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt. If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well.

The next line of comments goes something like this:

“I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”

Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this. Almost. Do people even think before they speak? She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown? For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner. Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness? Did I miss something? I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything? If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof. You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not.

Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness? Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win? That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown. That’s what makes it special. Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing. I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears. Same goes here. You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful? Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.

Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin??? That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.

When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.” Oh really? Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history. Forgive me, then. It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner. On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness? Yeah…didn’t think so. If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen. Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.

Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either. He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding. It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime. I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07. “Curlin got beat by a girl!” Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was). Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ? Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl. How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?).

The last line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:

“Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”

When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all.

“Oh lord, won’t you buy me, a tour-na-ment ticket, my friends don’t know horses, I must make amends…”

Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness. How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me. Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples? Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?

Consider the following stats. Here are the opening 1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness. Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:

2008 Belmont:

opening 1/4 – :23.82
opening 1/2 – :48.30

2009 Preakness:

opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
opening 1/2 mile – :46.25

See that? Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness! And why was that exactly? Well, several reasons. In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead. Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30. That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead. The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing.

In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way. She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns. Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be. Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate. The result was a speed duel. Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner. It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man. That’s what made her win so impressive. It shouldn’t have happened. Most horses would not have pulled it off. In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83, 1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta.

So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like? Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness. I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome. Eyes can be deceiving though. Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.

Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.” Would he? Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different. The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her. That’s it. That’s the only certain conclusion one can make. The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas. I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).

Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date. Would those races be exciting? Most definitely! But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat. Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone.

In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off. Rest up, baby girl. There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond. Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga. I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself. Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….

Comments : 23 Comments »
Tags: 2007 preakness, 2009 belmont, 2009 preakness, Belmont, calvin borel, dennis green, Jess Jackson, Mine That Bird, rachel alexandra, Saratoga
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Rachel Alexandra Runs Away with the 2009 Preakness

16 05 2009

She did it!!!!!!! She stared straight into the eyes of over 80 years of history (not to mention 12 colts) and REFUSED to be denied! Right from the start she had to prove she was everything she had been billed as, being forced to move quickly from the outside post and winding up in a speed duel with inside runner Big Drama, setting opening splits of :23.13 and :46.71. NOTHING could stop her though as she powered to a 4 length lead in the stretch and held off late charges from Musket Man and Mine That Bird to prevail in 1:55.08. A lesser horse would have collapsed under the pressure. Hell, many a fine horse would have collapsed under the pressure, but not Rachel. It was a win for the ages, and one that has the potential to put horse racing back on the map in terms of national recognition, even if only for a fleeting moment.

Full Results Chart

The past 3 years I’ve been blessed to witness firsthand the finest thoroughbred racing action a fan could hope for in the yearly running of the Preakness. In 2007 I came to cheer my guts out for my hero, Curlin, and was thrilled beyond belief when he caught Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense at the wire. In 2008 we came to see Big Brown ”big boy”a field of pretenders and keep the elusive Triple Crown dream alive. Today was as big a day as I’ve ever been a part of, as the amazing filly Rachel Alexandra gave us one for the ages. No matter where we go from here, we can always say “I remember watching when Rachel Alexandra made history!” I’m on record as saying that in my opinion, the Preakness is the true test of a 3-year-old champion, as the field size and distance make it a more evenly matched race compared to the chaos of the Kentucky Derby and the exhausting (and often somewhat unpredictable) challenge of the Belmont.

Just like with Curlin in 2007, the minute the field turned for home I began jumping up and down, screaming at the top of my lungs. “Stay up there Rachel!!!! Dig in, girl, dig in!!!! Show ‘em what you’re made of, baby girl!!!! Yes!!!! YESSSS!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!” “IT’S A FILLY IN THE PREAKNESS!!!!!!!”

This was immediately followed by the same overwhelming and unavoidable tears of joy and pride that permeated my experience with her soon-to-be boyfriend’s Preakness victory. Yes, I wept a little bit, and I’m not ashamed to admit it. Watching magnificent horses that I’ve fallen in love with prevail in their defining moments has that effect on me. I suppose it’s a bit like a proud parent, watching their child achieve scholastic honor, or athletic glory on the football field.

I know one word can’t summarize what we witnessed, but all I’m left thinking is “WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!” (or perhaps more in accordance with the “parlance of our times”, I should revise that to a resounding “DAAAAAAAYUMMMM!!!!!” )

Whoever said a filly couldn’t beat the boys, huh? Of course, Rachel isn’t your ordinary filly, but to overcome that outside post, look Big Drama in the eye (who was coming off 5 consecutive victories, mind you, and was the most talked about “buzz horse” all week at Pimlico) and deny him, and then power to an insurmountable lead in the stretch while holding off the Kentucky Derby winner? It’s absolutely breathtaking. If it can be said that Big Brown “big boy’d” the field of the ’08 Preakness, than Rachel Alexandra “big girl’d” the field of Preakness 134.

THIS is the reason we are horse racing fans. THIS is the reason our sport is the best in the world. THIS is the reason we lay awake at night dreaming about what is, what might be, and what could have been.

What an unbelievable filly. Where she goes from here is anyone’s guess. Might she head to the Belmont? Personally I’d actually prefer they give her a rest. I think she’s earned it now with her dominating wins in the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness. No need to push things. That being said, if Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen (who I’m told was wearing the exact same suit that he did for Curlin’s 2007 Preakness victory) decide to send her, you’ll hear no argument from me. They made all the right moves with Curlin, and they’ve clearly done so with Rachel Alexandra thus far. And to think, none of this would have transpired had Jackson not stepped up to the plate and purchased her just two weeks ago.

I guess it’s no secret now that she has proven herself exactly who we thought she is, I’m hoping to see her come home safe and sound once her racing career is over so that she can breed a new line of magnificent offspring with Curlin. Can you believe it? We’re going to have foals several years from now that have Preakness winners for both a mother and a father! My knowledge of pre-World War 2 horse racing is extremely limited, but I’m guessing that’s never happened before.

This, my friends, is a total game changer for the entire sport!

I also have to tip my hat to the “little colt who could”, 2nd place finisher Mine That Bird. Talk about a horse who has EARNED respect these last two weeks. His effort in the Preakness proves that there is no such thing as a Kentucky Derby “fluke”, no matter how much we might want to suggest there is. Clearly he is a magnificent race horse in his own right, and I’ll tell you what, the way he came charging late he should be feared and respected in the Belmont.

I also thought Musket Man proved he’s the same gutsy competitor we thought he was. Remember back to our Alibi Breakfast coverage on Thursday where owner Vic Carlson indicated he was betting Musket Man to show? Looks like that turned out just like he said it would.

I’m no longer so sure exactly what we have with Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, and Friesan Fire, as none of them wound up finishing in the money.

All in all this was a magnificent weekend for the sport, and for Maryland racing, which always holds a special place in my heart. Just when both needed a savior (horse racing in general from a slew of disappointments/tragedies in recent years on the national stage, and Maryland racing in light of the recent bankruptcy filings of Magna Entertainment, which owns both Pimlico and Laurel Park), a wonder horse has appeared like a knight in shining armor.

I wish I could find the entire clip on youtube to share with you all, but in reference to that last sentence, I’m humored by a random quote that came to mind as Amy and I drove to the Preakness early this morning. For some reason the World War 2 classic “A Bridge Too Far” popped into my mind, and I began quoting some random lines. I made reference to the scene in the film where General Horrocks suggests that the plan for Operation Market Garden reminds him of an American old west film. “The paratroops, lacking supplies, are the besieged homesteaders. The Germans, well, naturally they are the bad guys. And XXX Corps….we are the CAVALRY!” This was immediately followed by a very bad Michael Caine impersonation, where I suggested that XXX Corps should arrive “right on shed-yule” (that’s “schedule” for us Yanks, but the way Caine speaks the line in full English accent comes off sounding like “shed-yule”….it’s quite addictive to impersonate as it just rolls off the tongue, but I digress).

“Right on shed-yule” indeed, and just when we needed it the most. Thank you Rachel, and the little horse who could (Mine That Bird). The two of you have both been the cavalry we so desperately needed, and your chivalric charges through the Kentucky Derby and Preakness stretches are memories that we’ll keep with us for eternity.

Of course, I can’t talk about amazing women like Rachel without tipping my hat to two other special gals who helped make the weekend what it was. Most importantly I’m talking about my beloved wife, Amy, who puts up with my rambling rants about horse racing and accompanies me as my right hand wherever the game takes me. True to form, in the midst of our dreadful opening to the day handicapping wise, she pulled an exacta play out of nowhere by boxing numbers that equated to our children’s birthdays.

At one point in between the Pick 4 sequences, I was so bummed out about our picks that I considered not even betting anymore for the day. It’s part of our my complex mental makeup that I both love handicapping, but hate losing money on burnt tickets. Remember that “right on shed-yule” theme from a few paragraphs above? It played out again during the extended downtime between races 8 and 9 on the card.

Just as we were agonizing over how to proceed with the late Pick 4, some familiar music began to pipe through the tents of the Turfside Terrace. ZZ Top had taken the stage to perform, and were jamming out to “give me all your loving, all your hugs and kisses too.” It was at that point that we knew the rest of the day would be ours. You see, back in 2002 when we were married, our ceremony was outdoors. Just as we began exchanging vows, a vehicle pulled up within earshot blaring that very song. Amy and I had remained oblivious to this turn of events as we went through the exchange (nerves having evidently temporarily disabled our ability to hear anything but each other), but it’s something our guests have never forgotten. Nor have they ever let us forget.

With that in mind, the moment that familiar sound reached our ears, we looked at each other and agreed “we came here to play, this is OUR day. No regrets!” And with that, we launched into a series of winning plays that got us back to near even for the day. You know the saying….behind every decent man there’s an even better woman. Well, I’m not sure if I qualify as a ”decent guy”, but I know damn well how special my girl is.

Amy and I at the 2009 Preakness, where Rachel Alexandra would make history as the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win horse racing's 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown

There’s one other special lady I have to give a big shout out to again, and that’s Carrie Everly of the Maryland Jockey Club. I know I mentioned her before in our Black Eyed Susan write-up, but she’s the type of person you simply can’t say enough about. If only there was some way to clone her so that each track in the nation could have a VP of Marketing like her. After Rachel’s victory, I ran into her near the winner’s circle, and shared a big “bear hug” while I confided to her that watching Rachel win had moved me to tears of joy and pride. I probably didn’t even need to say that, as Carrie is just one of those people who “gets it”, whatever “it” might be. One can always count on the warm smile, the friendly demeanor, and the infectous charm she exudes wherever you see her, whether that be outside the paddock between races or multitasking with walki-talki in hand as a crowd begins to arrive. No matter how busy she is, she always has time for us, the little guys. After all, who are we but small time horse players and fans? And yet she treats us like absolute royalty. I just hope that somehow, or in some way I’ll one day be able to repay that kindness and properly express my gratitude.

On a day when an amazing filly shined on the track, the Maryland Jockey Club had their own super-gal working behind the scenes to make sure it all came together as beautifully as it did.

Yours truly and the amazing Carrie Everly, VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club

And of course, it would only be proper to conclude by saying that everything went off “right on shed-yule”

Now if only I had a picture of me with my arm around Rachel Alexandra, right? I guess a guy can only be so lucky in one day. I’ve got no complaints from where I’m standing.

I’ll be taking the next few days off here. It’s been quite a run covering the Alibi Breakfast, Black Eyed Susan Day, and Preakness Day. I hope you all enjoyed. Up next we’ll start to swing our attention towards the 2009 Belmont.

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Tags: 2009 preakness, filly wins the preakness, horse racing, Mine That Bird, musket man, Preakness 134, preakness recap, rachel alexandra, rachel alexandra wins preakness
Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Day Selections

15 05 2009

It’s hard to believe that the second jewel of the Triple Crown is already upon us. From a week that began with the Alibi Breakfast festivities, we’re now through the Black Eyed Susan, and all attention turns to the Preakness. After bringing home two chalk heavy Pick 4 plays at Pimlico Race Course on Friday, I’m jumping right back into the fray with an exhaustive look at the major races that comprise the Preakness Day card on Saturday. A marathon of 13 races presents itself, culminating in the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes. It’s a day that could be filled with history, as Rachel Alexandra looks to defy the odds and become the first filly to win the Preakness since Nellie Morse way back in 1924.

Two years ago in 2007, my life changed when I watched a brilliant colt named Curlin take center stage and announce to the world that a new star was born. Might a similarly life changing event be waiting for us just hours away? Only time will tell.

Much like the Black Eyed Susan picks, I’ll skip the opening races on the day and instead focus on the two Pick 4 sequences. This is in the interest of time since it’s already 9 PM here in Pennsylvania as I begin writing this. With any luck we’ll do as good as we did Friday on Black Eyed Susan Day, only hopefully this time we’ll catch some better prices along the way.

Race 5: Alw 26000 N1X (12:26 ET)

#2 Schleprock (4/1)
#7 Habitual (5/2*)
#11 Chancellery (9/2)

We kick things off in the early Pick 4 with a full field of 12 runners routing 1 1/16 miles over the Pimlico turf. There’s not a lot of speed in this race, but turf races tend to come down to “cavalry charges” at the end, where the horse picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down the best in the final few jumps finds it’s way to the winner’s circle. For that reason, I went with #2 Schleprock as the top choice. He’s got 2 recent victories routing over the grass and is technically dropping slightly in class going from the $37k N1X ranks down to the $26k N1X level. With Edgar Prado in the saddle for trainer Michael Pino, this guy looks the one to beat. #7 Habitual is actually listed at lower odds (5/2) on the morning line than Schleprock. You have to look back a couple of races to see why, but this son of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven to be a capable turf runner. On his best stuff he can certainly get the job done. #11 Chancellery will have to get things done from the outside, but he’s been improving and has run a couple of decent races in his career over the Pimlico lawn. Another horse that warrants some attention in here is #4 Been Awhile, who took 7 chances to break his maiden, but then promptly defeated N2L claimers at first asking. Perhaps the light bulb has switched on?

$1 Early Pick 4:

2,7,11/ 3,9,10,11/ 8/ 3,6,7 = $36

Race 6: The Deputed Testamony (1:07 ET)

#11 Sumacha’hot (2/1)
#9 Belle’s Broker (6/1)
#3 Norjac (5/2)

Things get a bit deeper when we wade into Stakes territory with the 2nd running of The Deputed Testamony (which for some reason I always want to type as “the Disputed Testimony“), a 1 1/16 mile race over the Pimlico main track. #11 Sumacha’hot would be a much stronger play if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position. As such, and despite his very usable dirt form in recent history, you’ve got to include other runners on the Pick 4 ticket here. #9 Belle’s Broker has the look of a horse who may get overlooked on the tote board. He definitely knows how to find the winner’s circle, and he’s run pretty well at both this distance and on the local track. He was favored last out before being checked, which may have cost him the race. A bounce back effort puts him right in contention today. #3 Norjac must answer questions regarding his ability to stretch out and get the distance of the Deputed Testamony, but if is able to handle the chore, than he’s clearly a player as well. Two other horses I think warrant consideration in here are #10 Furrariat, who might be ready for a breakout performance, and the speedy inside runner, #1 Out to Please. Ultimately I didn’t think the inside speed runner “classed up” on paper enough to include in the Pick 4, but I wouldn’t count him out of the single race exotics. Of course, I could also make a bit of a case for #3 Take Down Two getting Garrett Gomez in the saddle, so this might be a good race to spread fairly deep. #7 Court Bland will be charging late, and has a decent chance to hit the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Gallorette (1:55 ET)

#8 Dynaforce (4/5*)
#2 All Is Vanity (9/2)
#3 Shytoe Lafeet (10/1)

We move into graded stakes territory with the 58th running of the Grade 3 Gallorette, going 1 1/16 miles over the turf. #8 Dynaforce is the main attraction of this event, coming off a disappointing 8th (though only beaten by 4 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita to the super talented Forever Together. This looks like a good spot for her to make his 2009 debut, as she’s the only runner of the field that can boast at having cracked the 100 Beyer Speed Figure threshold. That being said, she’ll still need to bring his top stuff to prevail. As a previous Grade 1 winner, she’s clearly the class of the field. What handicappers must determine is if they are willing to trust that class off the long layoff and bravely single, or if they think a couple of other runners might have a chance to pull off the upset. Obviously, based on my Pick 4 play a few races above, I’m going to be brave and trust that class edge, but you won’t hear me argue with those who feel otherwise….and their just might be some juicy value to be had for those who do attempt to beat the chalk. #2 All is Vanity looks like the filly with the best chance to “class up” against Dynaforce in here. She used a wide post position to put in a game run against Raw Silk in the South Beach back in April, and could move forward off that effort. #3 Shytoe Lafeet is my longshot bomb chance for this race. For one thing, I’m always fond of the Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combo, especially with fillies and mares. What’s more, this is a runner who has had excuses in each of the past two races. I’m guessing that with a name like Shytoe Lafeet, all of the foot fetish folks out there in the world will be all over this runner. If you toss those efforts, she’s got a little something under the hood and looks like a player in here to me. Another horse I’d strongly consider using in the single race exotics is #5 Quiet Meadow.

Race 8: The Grade 3 Hirsch Jacobs (2:35 ET)

#6 Despite the Odds (9/2)
#3 Not for Silver (8/1)
#7 Nuclear Wayne (4/1)

I actually had a chance to cover the 34th running of The Hirsch Jacobs over at Case The Race earlier this weekend. I’m still sticking with my picks there. I think this race has all kinds of speed, and the two horses that leap off the page to me are those from the white hot Michael Trombetta barn. #6 Despite the Odds looks to be the better of the two, and is an improving son of champion sprinter Speightstown. #3 Not for Silver is no slouch himself, and really I could see either of these guys passing the pace setters in the lane to score. Another runner who could offer some value, despite being only 4/1 on the morning line is #7 Nuclear Wayne, a fast improving son of Mineshaft. Of the speed types, #1 Taqarub makes the most sense to me, but like I said, I’ll be playing against the speed here.

Race 9: The Woodlawn (3:44 ET)

#8 Affirmatif (3/5*)
#4 Beacon Hill Road (6/1)
#5 Colonel Rutledge (10/1)

The Late Pick 4 sequence begins with the 44th running of The Woodlawn. We’ve got a field of ten three-year-olds going 1 mile over the turf . #8 Affirmatif is the most intriguing of the field, despite this being only his 3rd career start. The son of Unbridled’s Song is listed at extremely low odds of 3/5 on the morning line, but appears a worthy favorite on paper. He’ll likely press the pace early on and then make his move before the field enters the final turn. If he’s as good as he looks on paper, the race could be over right there. #4 Beacon Hill Road was a mediocre looking runner until switched to the Jason Servis barn, where he’s promptly run his best career efforts in back to back stakes races. A similar effort could put him right where he needs to be should Affirmatif fail to fire. My longshot pick for the race is #5 Colonel Rutledge. Not only do I love a good martial sounding name in a colt, but this one goes out for one of my favorite trainers, Graham Motion. It’s hard to figure out based on his limited past performance profile if he’s a better dirt runner or turf runner. He owns a win over the grass, but his better speed figures have been over the dirt. I’m guessing that he’s an improved horse since that first turf effort. That should show up on Saturday. Another horse you’ve got to consider using is #1 Heros Image, who might be force to go quickly early on by virtue of breaking from the rail.

$1 Late Pick 4:

4,8/ 5,7,8/ 1,3,4/ 7,9,13 = $54

Race 10: The Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (4:30 ET)

#8 Ravalo (3/1)
#5 Ah Day (5/2*)
#7 Celtic Innis (10/1)

Speed is the name of the game in the 23rd running of the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap, and #8 Ravalo has it. True, his last two efforts at Aqueduct and Keeneland have left quite a bit to be desired, but this gelding has won an impressive 8 of 16 races at today’s 6 furlong distance. I don’t think that can be ignored. He’s breaking from the outside ,but should be able to get the lead and then shift over to save ground. Speed tends to hold quite well at Pimlico, so he should be a force if he does indeed get loose up front. #5 Ah Day shocked me by being 5/2 on the morning line. I would have thought his recent darkened form trying to stretch out further might have increased his value. Now we’ll be at the mercy of horseplayers to determine what price he actually goes to post as. He should relish the distance change, and with Garrett Gomez in the saddle, this son of Malibu Moon could be quite a force for trainer King Leatherbury. #7 Celtic Innis is another runner who seems to thrive at the 6 furlong idstance, and has done especially well at Pimlico over his career. He’s been on the shelf since January, but at 7-years-old it could be that he just needed to get his legs back underneath him. Another runner that did not make my final selections that gives me some pause is #5 Torpedo Run, who exits 3 consecutive victories. He’ll probably be the guy I’m sweating out the most if I do indeed leave him off the late Pick 4.

Race 11: The Grade 2 Dixie (5:13 PM)

#4 Kiss the Kid (5/1)
#1 Proudinsky (5/2*)
#3 Parading (9/2)

Ah, the Dixie…such memories. It was in this race last year that my Pick 6 dreams came to a crashing halt when longshot Pays to Dream upset the late Shakis and others, and my despair was forever captured on film (that’s me in the yellow hat in that picture right next to the finish line). Time for some redemption, and what do you know, the gods of horse racing have seen fit to provide me with a Lemon Drop to get the job done! You know I love me some Lemon Drops! #4 Kiss the Kid exits two strong Beyer performances, in cluding a win in the Grade 3 Appleton in March. The victory was his third in 4 starts, having only been defeated by Kip Deville in that sequence. Kip Deville is one of the finest turf runners in North America, and while this field is deep, it doesn’t have any true monsters like him. #1 Proudinksy is a guy I never leave ff my tickets. He ran on Derby day against Einstein, Cowboy Cal, and Court Vision in the Grade 1 Turf Classic, and comes right back two weeks later for trainer Bobby Frankel. He’s always a threat on his top stuff, and the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Dixie seems to be his strong suit. #3 Parading is likely the pace setter of the race, and could be handful if he’s allowed to gets too easy a lead. There are others in here with designs on pressing that pace a bit, but his newfound early speed style should suit him very well. #2 Monba and #8 Strike a Deal are also runners worth considering here. Hopefully I won’t make it two years in a row being knocked out in the Dixie.

Race 12: The Grade 1 Preakness (6:15 ET)

#13 Rachel Alexandra (8/5*)
#9 Pioneer of the Nile (5/1)
#7 Papa Clem(12/1)

So it all comes down to this. The 134th running of The Preakness. Over 80 years of history are on the line! Can Rachel Alexandra repeat the brilliance she demonstrated in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago? Clearly the stakes have risen, and she finds herself in the deepest field she’s yet seen. She’s drawn the outside, and will likely have to gun it from the start in order to save ground going into the first turn. #1 Big Drama to the extreme inside also figures to be on the gas early on, creating a situation that might be ripe for the next flight of colts coming home. That should include the group that finished 2, 3, 4 in the Kentucky Derby; #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem, and #3 Musket Man. Much has been made of Pioneer of the Nile either being of questionable quality or potentially “sitting on a big one.” I tend to believe the latter of the two. If not for that brilliant move by Calvin Borel to find the rail with Mine That Bird, Pioneer might have been Derby champion. He should get a firmer surface to run over, and he looms the biggest threat to Queen Rachel’s attempt to achieve eternal glory. The horse that I think is being most overlooked here is #7 Papa Clem. What exactly did this guy do to deserve being ranked so low at 12/1? Was he not less than a length behind Pioneer of the Nile? He’ll be my longshot play, for sure. I’m not really sure what to make of #5 Friesan Fire. I probably gave him the “kiss of death” by making him my last minute Kentucky Derby selection just hours before the run for the roses (after the late scratch of I Want Revenge), and having met Larry Jones at the Alibi Breakfast, I can’t stomach being responsible for another miserable performance, so he shall be the official “horse I shall not speak of” for this race. Truth be told, I think he’s a sneaky threat if he has indeed healed….I’m just not going to name him in my picks. #3 Musket Man is a horse that has really earned my respect over the Triple Crown campaign, and I could see him getting back up into the money again on Saturday. As for the longer shots on the board, call me crazy but Take the Points at 30/1 looks very intriguing. What to make of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird? Well, you’ll never hear me disrsepect that horse again. I’ve learned my lesson. It’s just that without jockey Calvin Borel, and without the cool, damp climate that he seemed to thrive in so perfectly two weeks ago, I’m going to play againts him. Besides, all of that glorious value that made him famous in the Derby will now be gone thanks to being a household name. I’ll be there to cheer for Rachel Alexandra, but I think she might be up against it, which is why I’m ultimately going to cover Pioneer and Papa Clem as well on the Pick 4.

Preakness Selections:

$20 Win #7 Papa Clem
$1 Trifecta: 13/5,7,9/1,2,3,5,7,9,11 = $18

Best of luck to everyone. I’ll likely be “tweeting” along with the action from the Turfside Terrace. If you caught the action today on Black Eyed Susan Day, I was giving out paddock picks and other useful tips. Needless to say my access to the paddock is non existant when I’m across the track in the Turfside Terrace, but I’ll be in prime position to watch the Preakness runners saddle. You can follow along if you like from the link below:

http://twitter.com/kdawg68

Riders up!

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Tags: Preakness picks, Preakness selections, bob baffert, larry jones, musket man, take the points, Mine That Bird, pimlico selections, big drama
Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Papa Clem, Rachel Alexandra

Alibi Breakfast recap

14 05 2009

“Preakness Thursday” can mean only one thing if you’re in the Baltimore area, and that’s the annual Alibi breakfast at Pimlico Race Course. A tradition going back to the 1930′s, the Alibi breakfast is one of the best kept secrets of thoroughbred racing’s 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. Owners, trainers, dignitaries, and fans gather to honor those who have made contributions to the racing industry, as well as to stir things up with some juicy talk about the upcoming Preakness. For yours truly, it’s the one opportunity of the year to rub elbows with some of the bigger names in the sport, and attempt to learn inside information about the race that is the focal point of my entire year.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

First things first, I was not able to fulfill priority #1, which was to meet “Team Rachel.” Jess Jackson did not appear to be in attendance, nor was trainer Steve Asmussen. Instead, assistant trainer Scott Blasi stood in for them. While he may not be as well known from a household name perspective, he was the unsung hero behind the success of Curlin in ’07 and ’08. He mentioned that the filly has looked amazing since he’d been with her and that they can’t wait to run her. In a light hearted moment (the Alibi breakfast being filled with such moments), he answered a question concerning her outside post position in the 13 hole by saying “I just hope Calvin doesn’t forget where he is on the track and try to skim the outside rail.”

One related piece of information that fans of Curlin will enjoy hearing is that yes, Pancho, the horse that travelled the globe with the 2007/2008 Horse of the Year has made the journey to Baltimore to be with Rachel Alexandra. That can only be interpreted as a positive sign, as Pancho is highly regarded for having a calming effect on horses under his watch. To many, Pancho is just as beloved as Curlin, which is really saying something for a horse that has gone almost completely unnoticed to the general public. He’s a silent hero type. Blasi mentioned during his speech that the connections of Rachel Alexandra do worry a bit about what might spook her or cause her to stress a bit. With Pancho by her side, those fears have to be greatly reduced. He’s a special horse in his own right, and his presence with Rachel makes me feel extremely good about her chances of running big on this, her biggest stage.

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

As for the big names in attendance, there were plenty. Larry Jones was there to represent his colt Friesan Fire, who he said had many wounds from the Derby (his exact words were that some were inflicted by other horses while others were self inflicted). He joked that he never expected the colt to run the worst race of his career on the big stage that is the Kentucky Derby (Friesan Fire finished next to last, beaten by over 40 lengths), but he appears healed up and ready to go. Immediately after the ceremony, he was kind enough to give an autograph to my wife, which only enhances my high opinion of the man. It’ll be a tremendous loss for the sport when he retires after this year. As for the chances of facing the super filly, he mentioned that he had a filly who finished 19 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra earlier in the year, and that after the Oaks he thought to himself that 19 lengths really wasn’t so bad when up against Rachel. For the record, I didn’t have the stomach to confess to Mr. Jones that it was my fault that Friesan Fire had run so terribly in the Derby, having anointed him as my pick after learning of the scratch of I Want Revenge.

Perhaps the most amazing moment of the day for us was that we stood in the breakfast buffet line with the connections of Kentucky Derby shocker Mine That Bird, including trainer Chip Woolley Jr. In fact, at one point Amy even tapped him on the shoulder and warned him that it looked like his wallet was about to fall out of his back pocket. I’ve got to say, Mine That Bird’s connections cast quite the appearance, with their tall Texan cowboy hats, and they were consummate gentlemen. During the ceremony, Woolley joked that he was unaccustomed to police escorts upon arriving to town, and mentioned that “the last time the cops were behind me, I went to jail.” He also expanded upon his comments after the Derby indicating that he felt strongly that Mine That Bird’s victory was a “win for the little guys” around the world, and that while they were sad to lose jockey Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra, they were quite pleased to pick up the services of Hall of Famer Michael Smith.

I must confess here that while I was not a very big Mine That Bird fan going into the Preakness, it would be something else to see these guys win. They were arguably the most down to earth and easily approachable of those connected to the Preakness runners. You can tell they are still beaming with pride, as Woolley signed our program with a big “KD 135″ under his name. Yes indeed, Derby 135 shall always be theirs to savor.

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Moving on, Gary Stute gave a heartfelt speech about how he had invited his father to see Papa Clem in the Preakness, as he worried this might be his last chance to do so. Papa Clem is named after racing legend Clement Hirsch. Stute’s father is apparently not in the greatest of health. He joked that he “insisted” his family come to see Papa Clem run in the Preakness, but that he had done so before he knew they were up against the filly. On a side note, when first driving past the backside of Pimlico on our way in this morning, I saw Papa Clem galloping about (from the window of our moving car, mind you), and I thought he looked fantastic. Personally, I think Papa Clem is being totally disrespected on the morning line at 12/1 (let me condition that by saying that yes, I understand that’s not the odds maker’s actual opinion and that it’s really just his prediction of how the betting public will wind up). If the public does send this horse out at 12/1, I think it’s a huge mistake. Although it’s one I’ll try to capitalize on at the betting windows.

The moment that will probably stick out the most to those in attendance were the interviews with trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas. Baffert indicated that he thought Pioneer of the Nile would get a good trip stalking behind the early pacesetters (assuming Big Drama goes from the 1 hole and that Rachel goes as well from the outside). He also mentioned that he tried to purchase Rachel Alexandra at one point but that he was “too cheap” and couldn’t afford the hefty price tag. He said that as a fan he was blown away by her performance in the Oaks. Garrett Gomez will be aboard Pioneer of the Nile, and he looks to be one that could be sitting on a big performance. I mentioned this on Facebook last evening, but there can’t be any doubt that he’ll be a part of the finish. At 5/1 he’ll probably be the second choice when they go to post. Baffert also mentioned that he went into the post draw hoping for the 9, 10, or 11 hole, and being as that they got the 9 hole with speed on both sides, he thought they were in good spot.

Lukas was the absolute highlight of the morning. He started by discussing his two 50-1 longshots, Luv Gov and Flying Private. He asked Woolley and the Mine That Bird connections for some advice on how to get things done at 50/1. Then he offered that Luv Gov was named for former Governor Elliot Spitzer of New York, and joked that he had another filly named 9th Client. In the end he said that he didn’t have any delusions of upsetting this field with a 50/1 longshot, but that he’s been in racing long enough to know that if you have horses that you think belong in the race, you might as well run them.

An interesting tidbit for folks who are fond of Musket Man, for owners Eric Fein & Vic Carlson. Mr. Carlson mentioned that while he likes his horses chances, he’d “probably be betting on him to show” against this field. He also mentioned that his girlfriend (as a side note, Mr. Carlson and I seem to have a similar taste in women…just sayin’) advised that her lucky number was 3, so they feel good about the post position. Personally I like this horse quite a bit. It’s kind of hard to separate him, Pioneer of the Nile, and Papa Clem because they finished so close in the Derby. He seems like a fighter though. Plus, I love hearing his trainer, Derek Ryan, talk prior to races. Sadly, I did not see him in attendance as I was hoping to get to meet him as well.

As for the rest of the field, the consensus seemed to be that Big Drama would be forced to go quickly from the inside post position. A little birdie happened to mention to me that Big Drama has looked very impressive in their opinion while working out at Pimlico. I know, I know, he wasn’t one of the horses I was going to play either, but just remember that last year the juicy piece of information I received from the Alibi breakfast was that Macho Again looked much better in training than his odds suggested. I’m just throwing that out there (note, that juicy tidbit about Macho Agian is in the comments section of the post I’ve hyperlinked to from last year).

It also remains impossible to root against a horse like General Quarters and his trainer Thomas McCarthy. By the way, in an interesting fact I had not heard before, it was revealed that McCarthy actually taught former NBA great Wes Unseld in High School back in Kentucky. Unseld of course has deep Baltimore connections having coached the Washington Wizards (technically then known as the Washington Bullets) for years.

Lastly, if you’re looking to play a local angle, than consider that M&D Stables, who are sending out longshot Tone it Down (3rd in the Federico Tesio on May 2), are a Maryland operation through and through….right down to their silks, which are fashioned in the spirit of the Maryland flag. Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Tone it Down, the same man who rode Big Brown to victory so brilliantly last year in the Preakness.

Overall, we wound up meeting, talking to, and getting autographs from ”Chip” Woolley Jr., D. Wayne Lukas, Larry Jones, Vic Carlson, and the connections to Tone it Down. We also ran into some of the NTRA staff that I was privileged enough to meet last fall at the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas (and to my surprise, they remembered who I was – even remembered my name!). Along the way we also managed to consume several Black Eyed Susans, making us the proud owners of 4 of the prized collector’s item Preakness glasses. We would’ve made out with more, but that was all we could carry.

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

I also want to give a HUGE shout out to our friends Tex and Cindy from over at horseracing.about.com. Without them, Amy and I would likely have never even attempted to take in an Alibi breakfast, and what an experience we’d have missed. One final parting shout out here to Carrie Everly, the VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club. I don’t know that I’ve ever met a host who makes us feel more welcomed anywhere in the world. She goes out of her way to make us feel like we belong. Carrie, if you’re reading this, please know how much we appreciate you. The MJC is lucky to have a person like you in their employ.

Alright….now I just need to rest off those Black Eyed Susans and get to handicapping. I’ll be back later tonight with a full lineup of picks for tomorrow’s races on, what else, Black Eyed Susan day!

Comments : 9 Comments »
Tags: Alibi breakfast, NTRA, larry jones, 2009 preakness, chip woolley, d. wayne lukas, maryland jockey club, preakness tips
Categories : Horse Racing News, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Rachel Alexandra, Mine That Bird

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