Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/13/09

12 06 2009

With the 2009 Triple Crown season behind us, it’s time to start looking forward to the summer campaigns ahead for many of the top horses in racing.  On Saturday at Churchill Downs, racing fans will be treated to at least one such horse in the marquee race of the day, the 28th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  Einstein, a 7-year-old son of Spend a Buck, looks to inch closer to the $3 million dollar mark in lifetime earnings and cement his place as the top older male in the nation. 

Earlier in the day at Monmouth Park, the sensational 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown will be honored with a free bobblehead giveaway in his likeness for each paid admission.  From coast to coast and from noon to sundown (at least over here on the east coast),  major stakes races dot the calendar at Belmont, Philly, Churchill, Monmouth, and Hollywood. Here’s a quick rundown of the major stakes races I’ll be focusing on this weekend.

Belmont Park – Race 4:  The Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) – 2:26 ET

Selections:

  • #3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
  • #1A Music Note (2/5*)
  • #1 Seventh Street (2/5*)

We’ll start things off in the Ogden Phipps, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main Belmont track.  Godolphin and Darley send out a very tough looking triple entry in #1 Seventh Street, #1A Music Note, and #1x Sea Chanter.  From a betting standpoint, let me just say that it’s absolutely infuriating to see a 7 horse race where 3 of the horses, nearly half the field, are a combined entry.  That’s real fair.  Thanks.  You know what?  I say we refuse to eat chalk here by playing against the obvious choice, and there just might be a horse in here who can get it done. 

It’ll take the race of her life, and we’ll be playing into the teeth of the overwhelming favorites, but why not take a ride on #3 Seattle Smooth?  Listed as 5/2 on the morning line, the improving 4-year-old daughter of Quiet American may have yet to reach her ceiling.  Another move forward and she’s suddenly very competitive with the favored trio, and note that she beat one of them last time out in the Shuvee.  The chalk looks tough, but there’s no fun in giving out 2/5  selections.  Live a little and take a shot with Seattle Smooth.

 

Philadelphia Park – Race 8: The Jostle ($200k) – 3:22 ET

Selections:

  • #2 Cinderella’s Wish (5/1)
  • #11 On the Menu (9/2)
  • #10 Union City (8/1)

We take a rare journey to Philadelphia Park for the 3rd running of The Jostle, for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  We’ve got a full field of 12 runners in what appears to be a very interesting betting race.  As is usually the case with me when it comes to the ladies, I’ve got my heart set on one girl here.  Anyone who was following along with our tweets on Black Eyed Susan Day during Preakness weekend will have no trouble figuring out who it is. 

#2 Cinderella’s Wish absolutely wowed me in the paddock…until she got a bit unruly and began kicking wildly.  She was up against a very sharp looking Steven Asmussen runner in the overwhelming favorite that day, Heart Ashley.  Cinderella’s Wish was 10/1 on the line that day, while Heart Ashley was odds on top choice.  As the field turned for home, it looked like Heart Ashley was toying with the field.  With about a furlong to go, however, Cinderella’s Wish made up her mind to put in a serious charge, and darn near nailed Heart Ashley at the wire.  It took a photo finish to sort things out, and in the end she was just a head short.  From where I sat it looked  a lot closer than that, and in fact I thought she had actually defeated Heart Ashley.  She’s my pick of the day.  Lock and load.   Go get ‘em, baby girl! 

 #11 On the Menu and #10 Union City are two I’d pay close attention to in the post parade, provided you have the opportunity to do so.  Either one could run big today.  I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, #5 Saarlight, despite that one’s speed.  This race should be quick, which should set up nicely for Cinderella’s Wish and On the Menu.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9:  The Monmouth Stakes ($200k) – 4:50 ET

Selections:

  • #1 Proudinksy (3/1*)
  • #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
  • #4 Grand Couturier (7/2)

What’s this?  I must have gone mad. After playing against rather solid favorites in the first two races we’ve covered, I’m now going with a lukewarm 3/1 favorite in the Monmouth Stakes?  Strange things happen when bobbleheads are introduced into the equation.  Nothing is as it seems.  I actually thought Grand Couturier would be the favorite here, and he still may be come post time.  While I think he’s a factor here, it’s the long layoff that concerns me the most, and the fact that he seems to be prepping for the Man O’ War later this summer. 

Presious Passion is a very dangerous horse who would be the pick if we were going just a bit further.  It doesn’t appear that 1 1/8 miles is his best distance.  He’ll be tough though.  That leaves Proudinksy as the selection, and he appears to have many things going for him.  He’s lethal at this distance, he’s making the 2nd start of his form cycle, and he’s dropping in from the Grade 1 ranks where he came up a bit flat in his last effort.  I always seem to wind up with this guy in my picks.  I’ll hop aboard again this weekend. 

Another runner that I think has an outside shot here (quite literally) is #9 Kiss the Kid.  His effort in the Dixie has the effect of darkening his form, but he did finish within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner.  Lord knows I love me some Lemon Drops.  If he looks good in the post parade, I might take a stab with him.  

 

Churchill Downs – Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 5:29 ET

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (10/1)
  • #3 Einstein (2/1*)
  • #5 Researcher (4/1)

The feature race of the day is the return to the dirt for the versatile Einstein.  The old boy is making quite a name for himself with the ability to win on seemingly any surface.  I’m on record as saying I prefer him slightly on turf, but he’s got the class and the guts to get the job done here. 

He won’t get away with it easy, however.  Two rivals in particular look very intriguing.  Bullsbay is currently listed as 10/1 on the morning line.  That’s absolute theft for a  gutsy son of Tiznow who hasn’t been out of the exacta in the last 6 races he’s finished (he did pull up in the Donn Handicap back in January).  I guess folks are worried about the class hike, but this is a Tiznow we’re talking about.  They’re always fighters.  Plus, look at the connections.  It’s Graham Motion!  One of my favorite trainers.  That’s too much for me.  A favorite sire that I like to play and a favorite trainer against what is sure to be an overwhelming favorite?  I’ll take the chance and go with Bullsbay in a win bet here. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I do believe Einstein will come home on top, but at 10/1 it’s impossible to ignore Bullsbay.  Researcher is another intriguing runner who is stepping up in class and is exiting back to back big wins at Charles Town.  The presence of jockey Calvin Borel means that he’ll take plenty of play at the windows, but he’s another that must be considered if you’re looking to catch a price. 

One other note about Churchill – don’t miss Warrior’s Reward in the Northern Dancer (race 8, post time 4:29 ET).  He’s a Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old.  Enough said.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9: The Californian (G2) – 5:00 PT

Selections:

  • #4 Aitcho (8/1)
  • #3 Rail Trip (5/2*)
  • #6 Song of Navarone (8/1)

We wind up the afternoon with the feature race from Hollywood Park, the 56th running of the Grade 2 Californian for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.   Rail Trip and Ball Four look to lock horns again and are likely to be considered the top threats for this race.  Last out, Ball Four was able to pull the upset by wiring the field and holding off today’ top choice, along with another useful runner in this field, Dakota Phone.  This race looks wide open, so make sure you spread fairly deep if playing the exotics.  Ultimately, I thought Rail Trip would prove to be the better horse, but it’s entirely possible that the distance may not be to his liking. 

As such, I went with the improving Aitcho for trainer John Shirreffs. As is the case with Zenyatta, Shirreffs teams up with jockey Mike Smith here with Aitcho, and the son of Stromy Atlantic looks to test the stakes waters for the first time following his most recent victory at the allowance level.  Is this an acid test?  Sure.  Do his previous races stack up with the best of other runners in this field?  Not exactly, but he does have upside, and at  8/1 he offers value on the tote board.  Mary Forney recently caught up with Aitcho schooling in the paddock and has a nice picture if you’d like to get a glimpse.  Looks like a fine colt to me. 

Another interesting bomber that should be a large price on the board is Song of Navarone.  He’s never been on synthetics before, which will scare most folks away.  But c’mon…he’s run (and won multiple times) at the vaunted Sunland Park.  You aren’t going to toss anything coming from Sunland are you? Victor Espinoza’s in the saddle.  Obviously this will all come down to how well this runner likes the surface, but the possibility is there.  I’m just sayin’.  Let the post parade factor into your ultimate decision, but do not totally overlook Aitcho or Song of Navarone.

That’ll just about do it for this weekend.  Don’t forget to check out Indian Blessing and Kip Deville on Sunday.  ‘Blessing will be sprinting in the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, while Kip Deville will return in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the weekend.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Music Note

Mine That Bird shocks the world!

2 05 2009

Jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-RAIL) has done it again, exploding up the rail in the 135th  Kentucky Derby to shock the world by winning the nation’s biggest race at odds of 50/1.  The win completes a perfect sweep of the both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby, and both in amazing style.  Mine That Bird was 50/1 on the tote board going to post, and goes down as the second longest priced horse to win the Kentucky Derby in it’s storied history.

50/1!!!!!!  Are you kidding me?  In the Derby?  Wow, guess we just missed “the next Giacomo.”  Watching Calvin celebrate afterwards all one can wonder is how one man can dominate one lane at one track so thoroughly as Calvin Borel does at Churchill Downs along the rail?  It is absolutely astonishing.  Twice now in the last 3 years he’s made the same move and won the Derby.   

On Friday we had visions of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont as Rachel Alexandra throttled the Oaks field by over 20 lengths. On Saturday we were treated to visions of Street Sense in the ’07 Derby, as Calvin  Borel  did what he always does.  He found the rail, made his move, and then continued to to extend throughout the stretch.  Mind That Bird opened up a final margin of 6  3/4 lengths and completed the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby in 2:02.66.

How on earth did this happen?   A son of  Birdstone, Mine That Bird had never broken the 90 Beyer Speed Figure level.  In fact, he had barely broken the 80′s.  Talk about a stunning improvement. Exiting back to back less-than-inspiring performances in ungraded stakes at Sunland Park, for goodness sakes, he was less than an afterthought.   I ‘ll be honest.  I had him ranked as the third from lowest contender in this field.  That’s right - 3rd from last.   Never saw that coming in a million years. The only runners I had behind him were Atomic Rain (who finished 16th), and Flying Private (who finished last).  Of course, the horse I did have finished 18th (Friesan Fire).  Sigh.

Yet Mine That Bird, somehow, was clearly the best.  Once you could see him making his move along the rail, all you could think of was “wait, who the heck is that along the rail?”  As if we even needed to ask.  It could only be one man, and just like he did aboard Street Sense in 2007, he did again in 2009.  

In the “race behind the race”, an interesting battle was happening that many racing fans may have missed.  Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem battled it out and ultimately rounded out the superfecta, respectively.  Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird were another 6 lengths back from the top four. 

The final results with beaten lengths was as follows:

  • #8 Mine That Bird  —
  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile – 6  3/4
  • #2 Musket Man – 6 3/4
  • #7 Papa Clem – 7
  • #11 Chocolate Candy – 13
  • #17 Summer Bird – 13 1/4
  •  #9 Join in the Dance – 14 1/2
  • #10 Regal Ransom – 15
  • #1 West Side Bernie – 15 3/4
  • #12 General Quarters – 17 3/4
  • #15 Dunkirk – 19 1/4
  • #5 Hold Me Back – 20 3/4
  • #4 Advice – 21 1/4
  • #19 Desert Party – 22
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff – 22 1/4
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide – 35 1/4
  • #6 Friesan Fire – 42 3/4
  • #20 Flying Private – 44

Obviously the most disappointing of these was post time favorite Friesan Fire, who was beaten by over 40 lengths.  Most likely this is because I selected him once I Want Revenge was scratched.  My apologies to the Larry Jones camp.  Now I just hope he checks out okay without an injury.  Finishing 40 lengths back at his talent level is more than worrisome.

All of this makes the Preakness, just 2 weeks away, a more intriguing race. 

  • How many runners will be scared away from Mine That Bird?  
  • Was it the sloppy track? 
  • Was it some other factor that makes him vulnerable two weeks from now (and beyond)? 

I’m thinking many will be expecting a significant bounce off of that performance.  The Preakness, due to it’s reduced field size of 12, tends to be a better barometer in terms of absolute talent. 

Speaking of which…we  went into the week thinking we had a fairly good handle on who the best 3-year-olds in the country were.  We leave with Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird  seemingly on a level of their own.  Hats off to the connections of each.  

Is there any chance we might see them in the Preakness two weeks from now at Pimlico?   We can only dream.  What a matchup that would be.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby

2 05 2009

Waking up this morning I expected the euphoria surrounding Rachel Alexandra’s performance in the Oaks to still be the story on everyone’s lips.  Instead now we’ve got the scratch of the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, on Derby morning of all days, to contend with.

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2009/05/i-want-revenge-scratches-from-kentucky.html

Reportedly, it’s due to ankle swelling/lameness.  Wow.  Just when it looked like things were getting better, now we’ve lost the morning line favorite on Derby morning.  Unbelievable.  And literally just hours from when I made him our top selection.  I must be the absolute kiss of death.  My heart goes out to jockey Joe Talamo, who I’m sure thought he had  a huge chance to fulfill the dream of winning a Kentucky Derby. 

I’m starting to feel personally responsible for Curlin’s “trip from hell” in the ’07 Derby.  That makes 3 straight top choices for  me that have either run their worst races (Curlin in ’07 and Colonel John in “08), or have not even made it to post (I Want Revenge….and I suppose you could add to that Quality Road, who was my top choice entering the week).  That’s two top choices for the Derby I’ve lost on freakin’ Derby week!   I’m almost scared to name a new choice.

Since I must though, I shall. 

Friesan Fire…let’s send Larry Jones out a champion.  I’m torn between him, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, but that’s where I’ll wind up.  There is no better tandem, for my money, with three-year-olds than Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  Go baby, go!  :)

So what else do we do?  Well, I guess you can upgrade Pioneer of  the Nile significantly, considering he’d defeated I Want Revenge on the synthetics.  I think Papa Clem becomes more of a player now at long odds as well.  I’d spread now to cover that one in the exotics, along with Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer. 

Looking  on the positive side of things.  Supporters of Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Regal Ransom (I think that covers the selections I’ve seen out there) just got one less potentially world class foe to deal with, adding to the likes of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned,  and Square Eddie, just to name a few.  And of course, now we know for certain that the top 3-year-old in the country ran yesterday in the Oaks.  That’s got to make things a bit easier for them.

But seriously…can this be “it?”  Can we not have any more setbacks? 

The picks of many are in chaos.  Hopefully we can salvage some value out of that chaos and capitalize on the instability of opinions.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Papa Clem

2009 Kentucky Derby Selections

1 05 2009

Im not sure if anything we see on Saturday could possibly top what we saw on Friday, with Rachel Alexandra’s dominating performance in the Kentucky Oaks, but It’s time to pick a winner for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby.  By 6:30 tomorrow night, the world will have it’s newly crowned Derby champion.  A field of 20 has gathered for the time honored run for the roses, and the greatest 2 minute spectacle in all of sports.  Who will enter racing history as the next champion?

The field for the 135th Kentucky Derby (Grade 1):

  • #1  West Side Bernie (S. Elliott/ K. Breen) 30/1
  • #2 Musket Man (E. Coa/ D. Ryan) 20/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (J. Velaquez Jr./ E.  Harty) 30/1
  • #4 Advice (R. Douglas/ T. Pletcher) 30/1
  • #5 Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 15/1
  • #6 Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ J. Jones) 5/1
  • #7 Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 20/1
  • #8 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley) 50/1
  • #9  Join in the Dance (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 50/1
  • #10  Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 30/1
  • #11  Chocolate Candy (M. Smith/ J. Hollendorfer) 20/1
  • #12  General Quarters (J. Leparoux/ T. McCarthy) 20/1
  • #13  I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/ J. Mullins) 3/1*
  • #14  Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/ K. Breen) 50/1
  • #15  Dunkirk (E. Prado/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #16  Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/ B. Baffert) 4/1
  • #17  Summer Bird (C. Rosier/T. Ice) 50/1
  • #18  Nowhere to Hide (S. Bridgmohan/ N. Zito) 50/1
  • #19  Desert Party (R. Dominguez/ S. bin Suroor) 15/1
  • #20  Flying Private (R. Albarado Jr./ D. W. Lukas) 50/1

Free Brisnet Past Performances

All of the recent buzz seems to be surrounding Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, leaving the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, as something of a forgotten man.   I haven’t forgotten him.  His performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4 is simply too impressive to overlook.  With the exception of possibly Quality Road’s performance in the Florida Derby, that has to rank as the most impressive prep race we saw from a 3-year-old colt this season.  Further, I feel he’s positioned perfectly in the 13 hole to secure a good trip…although it’s not like he needs a perfect trip, as evidenced by that performance in the Wood.  It’s time to make it official, I’m anointing I Want Revenge as the pick.   Here’s hoping the recent whirlwind of excitement surrounding some of his main competitors gives me a better price than his current 3/1 listing.

If our “10 burning questions” poll  from the beginning of Derby week is any indication,  the Larry Jones trainee Friesan Fire will take quite a bit of play at the windows following his dynamic performance in the Louisiana Derby (Note: we had 110 responses to the “who will win the 2009 Kentucky Derby?” question, with Friesan Fire receiving 30 votes.  I Want Revenge trailed with 22 votes,  Pioneer of the Nile (15), and Dunkirk (13)  The long layoff since then is the obvious concern folks will have to deal with.  He’s trained exceptionally well leading up to this, enough so that I’m making him my second choice overall.  It would be fantastic to see Larry Jones go out on top with a Derby winner in his final try, and I think Friesan Fire will give him a chance to write that storybook ending.  

As for Pioneer of the Nile, I think he could be any kind of horse.  I know he’ll be involved, and he’ll likely be right there at the finish.  Breaking from the outside he should be able to move tactically to save as much ground as he can entering the first turn, and then when Gomez asks him for his run I’m expecting him to respond in a big way.   I’m not making him the official pick, and I’ve recently stated publicly (on Facebook and Twitter) that I’m “tossing him”, but I’ll certainly cover his number in the Pick 4/Pick 6 plays.  I guess that means I haven’t fully tossed him.  Oh well.  Nobody’s perfect.

Dunkirk is a runner I could go either way with.  Back in February he probably would’ve been my top pick hands down, and while I still like him, I have these other runners rated just a tad higher.   Ultimately I’m left thinking that if Curlin couldn’t do what he’s attempting, then it’s probably going to be a bit much for Dunkirk as well.   He’s another number that you leave off the exotic wagers at your own peril, but I simply didn’t have enough to warrant making him a top choice.  I love the way he runs, but I’d prefer a bit more muscle in his chest area and overall in his body before predicting brilliance on the Triple Crown stage.   That being said, a repeat of his effort in the Florida Derby definitely has him right there at the wire. 

As for the rest of the field, I think Papa Clem can make some noise from the 7 hole, and I’m not ready to count out the Dubai invaders in Regal Ransom (30/1), and Desert Party (15/1).   Likewise, Hold Me Back has been rumored to have made a strong impression on everyone watching the workouts at Churchill this week, and as such he deserves consideration to hit the board as well. 

The last horse I’ll consider using to round out my plays is Chocolate Candy.  There’s just something about this runner that intrigues me.  I would be more intrigued had he got to Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, and I’m a bit more concerned with his ability to handle the synthetic to dirt transition than I am with Pioneer of the Nile, but so far that move has been golden for I Want Revenge and Papa Clem. 

$1 Kentucky Derby Trifecta:  

 13  / 6, 7, 15, 16 /  5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16, 19  = $28

*****************************************************

As for the undercard races, I like Kodiak Kowboy in the G2 Churchill Downs (race 6).   In the G3 Eight Belles (race 7)  I’ll play the heart pick and go with Larry Jones’ Just Jenda.  Always a sucker for the Lemon Drops, I’ll play Lemon Chiffon in the G2 Churchill Distaff (race 8), although Visit and Ballymore Lady also look intriguing.  In the Humana Distaff I’ll spread a bit and cover Informed Decision, Game Face, the speedy Secret Gypsy, and longshot Roayale Michelle.  Finally in the in the G1 Turf Classic (race 10)  I like Einstein, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal.

The $.50 Pick 4 ticket I’m considering playing would look like this:

1,2,7  /  3,5,7,9  / 4,6,8  / 6, 13, 15, 16  = $72

A bit larger plays than I’m usually accustomed to, but it’s Derby day, and you only live once.  Might as well take a shot if you ask me.

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping all horses and riders return safely.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Court Vision, Dunkirk, Einstein, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Alexandra the Great! Rachel Alexandra crushes the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths!

1 05 2009

You wonder if somebody  told Rachel Alexandra? With the late scratch of Zenyatta from Friday’s Oaks card at Churchill Downs, the spotlight was squarely on her as she went to post in the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Roughly one minute and 49 seconds later she was cruising across the finish line in perhaps the most impressive 3-year-old filly race we’ve seen in years.  She’s no longer simply Rachel Alexandra.  With a performance like that come the never-ending accolades.  She’s now earned the title “Rachel Alexandra the Great.” 

That camera angle showing the gaping distance between Rachel Alexandra and the rest of the field brings back memories of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont, doesn’t it?  

Results Chart

Effortless….brilliant….flawless…superb! 

Words cannot even begin to describe what she did to the field. 

Out of the gate, she tucked in just off of early pace setter Gabby’s Golden Girl, who set opening splits of :23.75 and :47.46.   Entering the turn she drew up even with Gabby’s Golden Girl when barely nudged by jockey Calvin Borel.   By the time these two entered the top of the stretch, Rachel Alexandra had struck the front, and would never look back.  Well, that last sentence is only partly true, as Borel did a little stylish looking over his shoulder while keeping her firmly held throughout the stretch.

Amazingly, she cleared the final 1/8 of a mile in 12 seconds en route to a final time of 1:48.87, and all without ever being asked for anything.   Her head held high the entire time, she opened up a veritable can of “whoop-ass” on the rest of the runners, pulling away by a final margin of 20 1/4 lengths.  That’s right, that’s not a misprint.  20 and 1/4 lengths!!!!!!!!!!!

Rachel Alexandra returned $2.60 as the heavy favorite.  Longshot Stone Legacy, who was discussed as a possibility in the pre-race handicapping selections for the Oaks, blew up the exacta as the longest combo price on the board for $58 (not bad with such a  heavy chalk out in front).  

Even better, there’s a Pick 6 carryover from Oaks day to Derby day!  That can only mean one thing….millions will be on the line tomorrow in the Pick 6 sequence that ends with the 135th Kentucky Derby.  Calling all handicappers!   :)

Getting back to “Alexandra the Great”, is anyone else already drooling at the possibility of seeing her and Zenyatta duke it out  one day?   That’s getting way ahead of ourselves, admittedly, but it’s kind of difficult not to start thinking about such things.   Just an absolutely incredible performance.  It’ll be hard for the boys to live up to this tomorrow.  The bar has been raised astronomically high by the super filly.  In fact, if she were to announce for the Preakness or the Belmont, I think she be favored off this performance.  That’s how dominating it was. 

How good is she?  In the post race interview, Borel called her “the greatest horse I’ve ever been on in my life!”

When pressed further on whether that statement  included his winning mount aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Borel replied in more diplomatic fashion.

“She does what I want her to do and I’ve never asked her yet.  I don’t know how good she is.” 

Indeed, but one thing is absolutely certain.  In the 3-year-old filly division, there is a new queen.  Actually, make that a new goddess! And her name is Rachel Alexandra. 

All hail Alexandra the Great!


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra

Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta highlight Oaks Day on Friday

30 04 2009

A common recipe for success with travelling bands is to have another act “open” for you, warming up the crowd and getting them ready for the main event.  With the 2009 Kentucky Derby looming just hours away, the two best female horses in the country will take to the stage to do  a whole lot more than just open for the boys the following day.  When all is said and done, they just might be the highlight of the entire racing weekend. 

In a day filled with marquee racing, we begin by focusing our attention on the 24th running of the Grade 2 Louisville going 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill main track.  In a bit of a surprising move (to me at least), the connections of Zenyatta decided to throw racing fans a serious bone by bringing the “50 foot woman” back to kick off her 2009 5-year-old campaign right here on the Oaks day undercard.   I think I speak for every racing fan when I say “we’ll take it!”  Not since her scintillating performance in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic have we seen her race.  Six full months on the shelf resting, working, watching, and waiting.  Zenyatta doesn’t sleep…she waits!

After so much time on the shelf, you’ll forgive her if she comes out of the gate a bit rusty.  Of course she’s also travelled east away from the friendly confines of the Southern California racing circuit, where she has throttled everything they’ve thrown at her.  For some reason folks are whispering that might be an angle to take into consideration and perhaps play against her.   I think the layoff is the one and only concern with her, as we’ve seen her muscle her way through in dominating style on true dirt before in the 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.  In other words, I’ve got no worries about her on dirt.  

 

She is a bad, bad lady, and losing simply isn’t in her vocabulary.  With Curlin out of the picture in 2009, I’ve gravitated towards Zenyatta as my favorite horse in racing.   After all, she’s my slow cheetah.  :)

Even though she’ll be heavy chalk, I like her to prevail.  One Caroline will be the one she’s got to run down in the stretch, and with potential lone speed that runner could be a handful….or she could just be the next target for Zenyatta to set her sights on and devour in the stretch.   I’ll play Zenyatta over One Caroline in the exacta.   For the trifecta I’ll add in  Unbridled Belle to the place position, and then try to find a smidgen of value by adding in Swift Temper, Miss Isella,  and Modification on the bottom of the ticket in show position.

The Louisville is part of the Oaks Day Pick 6 sequence, but is not included in the late Pick 4 that ends on the feature race.   I’m not sure you can consider Zenyatta a true “free square” thanks to the layoff concern, but she’s still a solid play and obviously you can’t leave her off.  If you can afford to, I’d stretch a little and cover One Caroline just in case she gets away with easy splits out in front.  Ultimately I think Swift Temper will keep One Caroline honest and help set things up for Zenyatta to be rolling in the stretch, but just in case…well, you get the picture. 

Selections for the G2 Louisville:

$1 Trifecta:  2/4,8/ 1,3,4,6,8 = $8

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The feature race of the afternoon is the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, with 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles over the main dirt track for a total purse of $500,000.  All eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra, the filly phenom who has the horse racing world buzzing with her uber impressive 2009 campaign thus far, including victories in the Fair Ground Oaks and the Fantasy (Grade 2 races each).  She’s 3 for 3 this year and on a 4 for 4 roll going back  to late 2008.   The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is good enough that I’m on record as saying she’d be a contender in the Derby had her connections decided to enter her there.  

 

Note:  For those of you who, like me, are not able to receive HRTV in your local viewing area, the Oaks is scheduled to be shown on Bravo as well, with a post time of 5:45PM ET.

To be fair, she’s got some competition here in the form of both Flying Spur on the outside, and Justwhistledixie to her immediate inside.  There’s also Gabby’s Golden Gal in the 4 hole with some speed, so Rachel likely won’t have as easy a time on the lead as she did in the Fair Grounds Oaks or the Fantasy.  Still, she doesn’t need the early lead to win.  I could see her sitting patiently in second if another runner wants to go lights out, and then making her move as they enter the final turn. 

Ultimately I believe rather strongly that Rachel Alexandra is the true “free square”  of the day in terms of the Pick 6 sequence (if such a thing as a “free square” can even be said to exist in horse racing, which is highly debatable at least).  I just can’t see any of these runners besting her.  Not on this big a stage.   I’ll play the chalk on top with Flying Spur and Justwhistledixie in place.  I’ll add in Gabby’s Golden Gal and Be Fair for show, as well as longshot Stone Legacy, if only because she looks like a closer and there’s ample speed in here for her to chase.

Selections for the G1 Oaks: 

$1 Trifecta:  6/ 5,8/ 2,3,4,5,8 = $8

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As for the rest of the undercard, and in particular the other races of the Pick 4 sequence that ends with Oaks in race 11, I’d say the theme should be to spread fairly deep.  I could make a case for 7 of the 12 runners in The Edgewood (race 8), and likewise could see opportunities for 7 of the 10 runners in the Grade 3 Alysheba (race 9).  Thankfully, the Grade 3 American Turf (race 10) looks a bit more formfull on paper, and I think you can dwindle it down to 3 logical contenders:  Stormalory, Battle of Hastings, and Bittel Road.   Ultimately I think you’ve got to take a stab at the Pick 4 pool thanks to the 50 cent minimum wager opportunity.   The ticket I’m considering playing looks like this at the moment:

Oaks Day $.50 Late Pick 4:

2,4,7,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,8/ 1,3,6/ 6  = $36

Best of luck to all, and of course to the jockeys, horses, and the numerous folks on the backside who help make it all happen, here’s hoping for a safe and exciting day for all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Derby post positions set

29 04 2009

By now virtually everyone has seen the post position draw for the 2009 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, or at least dug a bit to find out where their favorite horses are lined up.  Here we’ll take a quick run through the field and see if we can’t glean any information about the way the chips have fallen thus far.  Like many of you, I’m still going back and forth in my mind about how exactly this race will setup and who my final pick will be. 

We’ll start with the inside runners:

  • #1 West Side Bernie (30/1)
  • #2 Musket Man (20/1)
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (30/1)
  • #4 Advice (30/1)
  • #5 Hold Me Back (15/1)

A grouping of veritable longshots highlight the inside quarter of the field for the Derby.   The two horses I think had the worst of luck in the post draw were West Side Bernie and Musket Man.  Each will probably have to go a bit quicker than they’d like to now by virtue of being stuck along the rail in a 20 horse field.  Remember that the 2 hole was doom for as talented a colt as Curlin back in ’07.   It’ll take a bit of racing luck for these guys to be able to maneuver through the field from these spots.  Winstar Farms has the trio rounding out the inside runners with longshots Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, and Hold Me Back.  If nothing else, they ought to get ground saving trips, which is probably what these guys needed anyway. 

Moving onto the inside-middle quarter of the field:

  • #6 Friesan Fire (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem (20/1)
  • #8 Mine That Bird (50/1)
  • #9 Join in the Dance (50/1)
  • #10 Regal Ransom (30/1)

Friesan Fire headlines this gorup of colts and will no doubt look to break well, and then rate off of the early speed, which could come from either side of him.  It’s worth remembering that Eight Belles, the last and perhaps most famous Derby runner for trainer Larry Jones, broke from the 5 hole in the 2008 Derby and ran well to finish 2nd to Big Brown before collapsing after crossing the finish line.  Given that Friesan Fire blewout a strong workout earlier in the week, he’d appear to be primed and ready for a big performance, and I see no need to be concerned by the post draw.  Papa Clem also drew interestingly in the 7 hole.  My 5-year-old always picks the #7 horse (his favorite color being orange), so no doubt he’ll wind up on some of our tickets.  Longshot Join in the Dance won the lottery for the post draw and selected first, opting for the 9 hole, which just happens to be the jersey number worn by one of his owners, Rashard Lewis of the NBA’s Orlando Magic.   Regal Ransom deserves some mention from me here as well as indications are that he looks very good coming off of his UAE Derby victory in Dubai back in March.  Earlier I had anticipated him to be part of the expected pace, and perhaps even on the lead early on, but from this post position I’d expect him to rate off the leaders and do more of a stalking style and look to make a middle move somewhere around the time the field enters the final turn.  He’s a longshot at 30/1 that I think deserves to be closely scrutinized in the post parade as he may have more of a chance than his odds would suggest.

Now on to the outer-middle quarter of the field:

  • #11 Chocolate Candy (20/1)
  • #12 General Quarters (20/1)
  • #13 I Want Revenge (3/1*)
  • #14 Atomic Rain (50/1)
  • #15 Dunkirk (4/1)

This is probably the group of runners that will warrant the most attention from handicappers by virtue of containing the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, and two of the more popular horses amongst fans in Dunkirk and General Quarters.  Toss in Chocolate Candy, who gets whispered about in certain circles, and you can see how interesting this group becomes.   First things first, I think I Want Revenge got a great draw from the 13 hole.   He’ll probably have some speed on both sides of him (by virtue of Pioneer of the Nile being drawn in the outside quarter of the field), but should be able to get a decent trip from here.  That might be all he needs.   Then there’s Dunkirk.   What you can’t tell from just looking at this group is that immediately to his outside is Pioneer of the Nile.  It’ll be interesting to see how these two react to each other out of the gate as Pioneer of the Nile has a reputation for being a bit wild early on, and obviously Dunkirk is extremely lightly raced.  If all goes well at the break, this isn’t a bad spot for him at all.  If something does go wrong though, well, then the whole picture changes.  But that could really be said about any runner in this field.  I’m only mentioning it because I’m a bit worried the two of them might play bumper cars for the first few steps.  General Quarters and Chocolate Candy look well placed here as well.  I would think this is probably just about where their connections would want them placed for this race.  As for Atomic Rain,  well…I’m not really feeling it at the moment.  I guess it’s a good draw for him.  Honestly I’m not really focusing that much on him.

And finally, the outside quarter of the field:

  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile (4/1)
  • #17 Summer Bird (50/1)
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide (50/1)
  • #19 Desert Party (15/1)
  • #20 Flying  Private (50/1)

It’s an interesting mix of possible legitimate win contenders and absolute longshot bombs on the outside.  We’ve already mentioned Pioneer of the Nile when discussing Dunkirk in the previous grouping, so I’ll spare you the rehash.  He would appear to be the speed of the outside horses and just might find himself on the lead unless one of the inside runners decides to (or is forced to) gun it in the early going.  He’ll probably go quick enough to save as much ground as he can going into the 1st turn.  Summer Bird looked absolutely fantastic in the post parade last out and I’m anxious to see how he stacks up on Derby day in the paddock.  You get the feeling he’s in a bit over his head, but he could be worth a late show bet if he passes the eye test.  I’m not really seeing it from Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private.  Honestly these 50/1 shots make me wish we still had Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse,  Quality Road, and Square Eddie here instead.  What a race that would be!  One horse who does intrigue me very much is Desert Party, and at 15/1 he won’t have to make much of an impression to warrant serious consideration.  I wouldn’t count him out of this fight.  Not at 15/1. 

So there you have it.  By no means does this constitute my final analysis….just some initial thoughts having looked over the post position draw.  We’ll be back tomorrow night with selections and analysis of the much anticipated Oaks Day card coming up on Friday, and then of course we’ll be jumping in full force for the run for the roses on Saturday.  

My question to all is how you see the post draw shaping up?   Any ideas on the pace scenario?  Like I mentioned before, I’m now off the idea that Regal Ransom will be a pacesetter.  Does that mean it could be Papa Clem setting the early pace, or one of the longer shots on the board?  Might Pioneer of the Nile have to show some speed from the outside as I suspect, or have I lost my mind with that thought?  As always, all opinions both welcomed and requested!  :)


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Papa Clem

Enter Lady Hope

27 04 2009

So it’s Derby week and we’ve had some shakeups.  It’s nothing new really, but we are in dire need of some good news on the thoroughbred racing front.   Bad things tend to come in bunches, so with any luck ours is out of the way and we’re setup for a thrilling Derby to remember this Saturday.  That’s the “glass half full” side of things.  The other possibility is that, well…let’s not even get into that.  It’d be bad.  Very bad.   With that in mind, I’m pulling for the “glass half full” vision of things. 

We’ve had a trilogy of recent disappointing news involving potential favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, including injuries to The Pamplemousse  (who was the likely pace setter),  Old Fashioned, and Quality Road (another speedy type).   This latest blow was particularly hard to take, as Quality Road was likely going to be my selection if everything with his feet checked out.  The cumulative effect of these departures is a completely altered pace scenario.  What once looked like a potential battle up front as horses tried to challenge The Pamplemousse and opened things up to the possibility of a flyer down the center of the track late, to a scenario where one horse might get out and be able to set easy fractions in merry-go-round style (Regal Ransom, anyone?).  

And it’s not like we haven’t had other “issues” to deal with.  The monstrous findings of unthinkable neglect with Paragallo’s horses and the infamous infractions of Jeff Mullins with Gato Go Win earlier this spring come to mind.   In fact, with the exception of a particularly interesting (if not ever-thinning) crop of three-year-olds to behold, there hasn’t been that much to get excited over.   Curlin’s retired (you knew I had to work that in somehow),  and we’ve yet to see the seasonal debut of Zenyatta. 

But this is the Derby, and with such a huge field, nothing is ever certain (with all due respect to Big Brown and every other worthy favorite that has prevailed over the years). Not only that, but we’re due for some good luck.  We’re all handicappers and at least mild gamblers.  We know to trust probabilities and odds.   Things have got to get better, don’t they?

Enter lady hope.

News now comes that Zenyatta, little miss “slow cheetah” herself,  is making her seasonal debut this Friday on Oaks Day!  She’s running in the Louisville Distaff on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks undercard!!!   Are you kidding me?   That means we get to see the two best fillies in the nation on Friday.   Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra!   Whoa there…are the ladies upstaging the biggest race in the country?   Not exactly….we could only say that if they were facing each other, but at this point Zenyatta would have such an advantage that it wouldn’t likely be that interesting.   So this is the best we could possibly hope for.   The front runner for Horse of the Year (barring a spectacular performance through the spring and summer from one of the 3-year-old colts), and the front runner for 3-year-old filly of the year.   Hell, I think Rachel Alexandra would be a logical contender in the Derby if she were to run there instead of the Oaks.

Want more good karma?   Today I received a kind letter of thanks from President Michael Blowen over at Old Friends for a meager donation.  It was quite a surprise considering the amount I donated was not a heck of a lot of money.  It just goes to show what great folks they are.   They appreciate every bit of help they get (hint, hint – if you manage to take home a score on Derby or Oaks day, make yourself a note to give a small portion back to a horse rescue group like Old Friends…it’s the right thing to do).   Old Friends are expecting to add Lava Man, Polish Navy, and Glitterman to the list of distinguished residents in the near future.   To be totally transparent, the donation is a mandatory requirement of being part of the TBA.  It’s one of the little things we try to do to be responsible members of the thoroughbred racing community. 

Anyhow…the point I’m making is that it was one of those “yep, this is why I’m proud to be a racing fan” moments.   Just like being able to see both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra strut their stuff on “Oaks Day” will be an experience I’m eager with anticipation to see.   This is what we live for!   And then, of course, to top things off we get the Derby.   The best 2 minutes in all of sports.   Might this be a good omen for things to come on Saturday?   One can surely hope, can’t they? 

On the Derby front, things are shaping up rather interestingly.   Thanks to a plug from Ray Paulick, we were able to get some very interesting results from a good sampling of fans in the “10 Burning Questions” post.   Make sure you head on over and participate if you haven’t done so yet.   Somewhat surprisingly, Friesan Fire is pulling away in the lead as the “people’s horse” for the moment.   Even more fascinating, as of this writing, almost as many voters have picked a longshot as have picked likely favorite I Want Revenge.   I can’t wait to see how this plays out on the tote board, but my hunch is that the late departure of a strong contender like Quality Road has really shaken up the opinions.   There’s bound to be some juicy opportunities out there.   There’s still the bulk of the week to go, and no doubt folks will start to settle down and the chips will fall one way or another, but for now it’s endlessly fascinating to see what folks are thinking.

My guess at an interpretation is that folks are a tad wary of I Want Revenge leaving himself too much to do in the Derby.   Having to get through the way he did in the Wood, while impressive, is a bit worrisome in the larger field he’ll face this weekend.  With Quality Road out of the picture though, I really thought he was the only runner who could get to him and reel him in late in the stretch.  

Dunkirk is getting a lukewarm reception overall.   It’s almost split right down the middle in terms of folks who think he’s a “legit win contender” and those who don’t.  Notice that phrasing.  It doesn’t mean he’s your top pick, it just means you think he’s got a shot.   Having close to 50% indicate “no” is way more than I anticipated.  For the record, I think he is a legit win threat.   He’s one you’ve got to consider and I don’t think it’s safe to toss any of the main competitors at this point. 

To give you a glimpse into my thinking (or, as my brother might say “ever see that movie “” A Beautiful Mind”"???) Here’s my biggest concern.  If I were to pick I Want Revenge, I’d potentially be going against two of my favorite plays.  One I’d be defintiely playing against and the other I’d “probably” be playing against.  The definite angle I’d be going against is playing Larry Jones when teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez on a 3-year-old.   That’s one of my strongest plays traditionally.  Especially whenever they get anything resembling “decent odds”  (which isn’t often, but could be the case here).   The second angle I could be playing against is “lone speed.”   I’ve got to look at it a bit more.   If Regal Ransom could get the lead,  might he not have a chance at the upset?   You’d think we would be cautious of such a possibility having had watched  Da’ Tara merry-go-round Big Brown and company in the 2008 Belmont, but it’s easy to forget with so much having happened since then. 

With that in mind.  Sound off.   Let’s here how you are seeing things in light of the recent shake-up.  We’ve got plenty of data….what we don’t have is a good assessment of “why?”   Ah yes, to you, oh wise readers, I turn for the “million dollar questions.”   :)


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Zenyatta, TBA, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, Old Fashioned, horse racing, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

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