Looking at the options, my selfish choice would’ve been the Del Cap, if only because the proximity of Delaware Park to my home makes it a very convenient choice of destinations. All things considered though, the Haskell is definitely the right call.

Asmussen and Jackson basically had two choices as I see it, as the Coaching Club American Oaks couldn’t have been a very serious possibility given the likelihood of another drastically reduced field.  There simply aren’t any 3-year-old fillies out there seemingly capable of taking on Rachel at the moment.  That means the next step had to be either proving herself over older fillies and mares (the Del Cap), or going up against the boys again.  They know what they’ve got in this horse and if they have any plans of seriously competing for Horse of the Year honors while skipping the Breeders’ Cup Classic, then they need to win BIG races.  And you KNOW they’ve got such plans.  The Haskell, quite frankly, was the biggest of the options on the table.

One of the more tantalizing aspects of this development to consider is that if Rachel were somehow able to prevail in both the Haskell and the Travers (held August 29 at historic Saratoga), I do believe she’d become the first filly in history to sweep the two races.  But such talk amounts to getting way ahead of ourselves for the moment.  For now Rachel will be squarely focused on the matchup at hand, which should include a showdown with “the other Bird” in Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird. 

A victory by Rachel over Summer Bird and the boys in the Haskell would solidify her credentials as the champion 3-year-old of this year’s Triple Crown crop.  She’d be the only runner amongst the Classic winners to be able to lay claim to victories over the other two.  Stop and think about that for a moment.  Even my beloved Curlin couldn’t say the same following his spectacular 2007 campaign.

In a perfect world, facing older fillies and mares in the Del Cap might’ve made a good deal of practical sense.  Trouble is (for the Del Cap at least), the timing of the Haskell also makes it all the more  attractive.  Being held on August 2nd as opposed to July 19th grants Rachel two full extra weeks of rest and preparation.

As an interesting aside, anyone else find it ironic that both the Del Cap and the Haskell are run on Sundays?  So much for my whole “Take Back Saturday“ idea, huh? 

In other related news, Jess Jackson seems to have purchased himself another Medaglia d’Oro filly for an as yet undisclosed price, acquiring the impressive Dashing Debby following her stakes victory at Calder on the “Summit of Speed” undercard.  While the filly herself has some obvious promise, one can’t help but hope that Curlin develops a little bit of a “thang” for the Medags girls. All in good time, big fella. All in good time.

So with the recent Rachel development in  mind, it looks like we’ll be saddling up to visit Monmouth Park the first weekend in August.  It’s been a long time coming for this visit.  I’ll share with you all that I’m still wrought with guilt for having not been there to support Curlin in one of his defining moments (the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic).  I can’t help but think that on some level, despite having won that Classic, Jackson and Asmussen are itching for some redemption in the Haskell given Curlin’s lackluster performance in that race 2 years ago.  And who knows?  They gave out Bobbleheads of Big Brown at Monmouth this year.  Is there enough time to put together a nifty Rachel themed promotion?  If they do a Rachel bobblehead at some point, they’d better make sure they get that distinctive blaze right! I’d pull out all the stops for this one if I were Monmouth.

A fairly large sized crowd (13,000+) were on hand to see Rachel in what amounted to a “public workout” at Belmont in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park late in June.  Here’s hoping those of us that love this horse can rally and give her as strong a showing of support as she steps into the ring to face the boys again.  Let’s top that number, people.  Hell, let’s “knock it out the park!”  Once again, in true Jerry McGuire style, I’ll ask:

“Who’s coming with me?!?!?!?”

One parting thought: 

As I sit here with the Major League Baseball All-Star Game playing though, I must confess that I’m starting to warm to the notion that we really do need Rachel Alexandra in the Breeders’ Cup.  I know, I know.  I wrote that whole “In Support of Jess Jackson” piece when the news first broke, and I stand bye those words, even if it sparked some disagreement.  It’s not that I’ve changed my mind, necessarily…I guess it’s just finally dawning on me that we are missing out on an “opportunity”, and that you only get so much of that oft-overused o-word in a lifetime’s worth of experiences.  I digress.  

All the more reason to make sure we capitalize on the opportunity at hand to watch Rachel in the Haskell, right?

It’s the Year of the Filly!  We’ve heard that expression repeatedly in recent months.  Perhaps equalled in terms of equine significance by only the Year of the Horse in Chinese Astrology.  The great growing story in racing with each passing week is the tendency to categorize this year as being a defining one for fillies and mares.  It’s not a very difficult conclusion to draw.  All one need do is reflect upon what we’ve witnessed thus far:

• Rachel’s brilliance in wiring the boys in her historic Preakness win.
• Zenyatta remaining undefeated and on the fast track (quite literally) to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
• Evita Argentina and Necessary Evil pulling off less heralded victories over the boys, while Life is Sweet passes most of the field to finish 3rd in the Gold Cup.
• The oh so close photo finish between the filly Milwaukee Appeal and Gallant in the Prince of Wales.

The absence of a dominant male champion only further enhances the prestige of the sport’s leading ladies.

But the “Year of the Filly?”

It’s a catchy phrase, I’ll admit that.  It’s just that after thinking the subject over there are a few small issues with that statement.

Firstly, to suggest that 2009 is the “Year of the Filly” would be to put forth the notion that not until this year did we see female runners achieve a level of accomplishment which separates them from both their male counterparts and the female crops of years gone bye.  While this year has been deliciously special, most of the major goals (i.e., the Breeders’ Cup Classic and potentially even the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – more on that in a moment) remain as yet unconquered.  We haven’t yet written the final chapter for the year and won’t do so for many months.  The elephant in the room that continues to dog the movement obviously being the likely absence of a “Thrilla in Manilla” style showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  In other words, there’s plenty of time left on the clock, and this could go still go either way. 

It’s not like last year was a down year for the ladies, either.  The trend of fillies and mares taking center stage began rather ominously when the filly Eight Belles broke down following her valiant effort in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, finishing 2nd behind the gifted Big Brown.  That moment took the wind out of our sails for many months.  It was the great body blow that shook the sport to it’s core.  And because it happened in our marquee moment, it was the “death seen ’round the world.” Much like the ultimately fatal injuring of Barbaro had two years before in the 2006 Preakness.

However, in the wake of that tragedy something beautiful was about to take hold.

The rebirth of the fillies (as well as, coincidentally, the Philadelphia Phillies).

It was around this time that Zenyatta first began gaining national attention as she rattled off graded stakes victory after graded stakes victory.  “Slow Cheetah” made the pulse of racing fans beat ever faster as her absolutely effortless, yet at times seemingly life-or-death late charging finishes became a familiar scene on the Southern California racing circuit…as well as at Oaklawn for a rare trip east and a stroll over a true dirt surface for the only time of her career. 

Then, with the eyes of the world upon her, the sensational filly Zarkava powered away with the 2008 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.  A filly in the Arc!  Of course, it must be pointed out that with European horsemen being somewhat more “progressive” that a filly winning the Arc isn’t quite as rare as one may think.  In fact, in the time spanning 1976 to 1983, fillies and mares won 6 out of 8 runnings of the Arc de Triomphe, with only the American born Alleged capable of pulling one (or in his case two in ‘77 and ‘78) away for the boys.  Overall, 16 fillies or mares have gone on to become Arc champions. 

It would also be folly to overlook  the sensational Goldikova, who ran away with the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  After all, she did beat Kip Deville, Thorn Song, Daytona, What’sthescript, and fellow gal Precious Kitten.  Almost instantly, folks began whispering of Miesque, the filly who won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Miles in 1987 and 1988.  Ironically, Miesque was ridden by Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head.  Speaking of Goldikova, while it was easy to miss this in the states unless you looked, she  recently got back to her winning ways by triumphing in the Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) at New Market.  The Breeders’ Cup remains her ultimate target where she’ll look to repeat the back to back victories of Miesque.

These points considered, the appropriate thing to would seem to be to reflect fondly on what appears to be a rather sustained period now spanning two calendar years that has the potential to reach lofty heights.  Imagine, if you will, the possibility of fillies (or mares) winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.  Obviously Zenyatta looms a very large threat for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, especially considering it will be run over familiar stomping grounds.  But what of the Arc?

Enter Sariska.

The incredible performance by Sariska in the Irish Oaks (Group 1) at The Curragh sets the stage for a showdown with the equally impressive Sea the Stars, who is one of the best horses in the world at the moment.  Judging from what we’ve seen with these two horses, that could be a “battle of the sexes” for the ages.  Sea the Stars might try to sweep the Arc and the Classic all for himself for all we know.  That being said, one gets the feeling watching Sariska pull away there in the final moments of the Irish Oaks that we’ve yet to get to the bottom of this runner.  She’s basically toying with the field as she moves into position.  Granted, those were girls she was running against,  but that was quite the impressive performance to behold.  I’d give this filly a decent shot to win the Arc, although Sea the Stars looms a likely (and worthy) favorite if they were to meet.  In the meantime, Sariska will point to the Yorkshire Oaks next and then perhaps both the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

And then there’s Rachel.  We still don’t know exactly when her next race will be.  According to trainer Steve Asmussen, the Delaware Handicap this Sunday at Delaware Park remains a possibility, although the Coaching Club American Oaks at Belmont and the Haskell at Monmouth Park remain more likely destinations.  Personally, my money is on her turning up in the Haskell as I can’t imagine they’d “rush” her into the Delaware Handicap if they don’t have to, and I can’t imagine who in the world would face her if she entered against 3-year-old fillies again at Belmont.  If she were to defeat Summer Bird in the Haskell, she would be able to lay undisputed claim to the overall 3-year-old crown, having already defeated the Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in the Preakness.

If Zenyatta comes through with a Classic victory, if Rachel can continue her brilliant 3-year-old campaign and prove herself against older horses, and if Sariska were to stage the upset of Sea the Stas in the Arc, then one would have to concede that the “Year of the Filly” was as true as advertised.  Some combination of those outcomes would go quite a ways to proving so as well.  A strike out of all three, however, and I think 2008 would still be able to stand next to the record of 2009 quite favorably.

But if enough magic exists out there in the night to see all of these possibilities through, then I suppose that would leave us with one other distinct possibility for the fall of 2009.  Get ready, Phillies fans.  If it’s destined to be the “Year of the Filly”, it’s only fitting that the Philadelphia Phillies will repeat as World Champions.

What a Saturday it’s been. It was an odd day, filled with the ups and downs that accompany horseplaying. Things didn’t go particularly well for my top selections in the pre-race handicapping, yet it sill seemed totally enjoyable to play along.  Usually I’m a bit “bummed out” if we’re losing, but today didn’t seem to effect me that much.  Most likely this is attributable to the fact that we did manage to get 5 second choices home (with one technically being a top selection by virtue of a scratch), but I digress.  Let’s look back for a moment on the afternoon that was:

Early in the afternoon, Game Face got back to her winning ways by taking her first Grade 1 stakes in the Princess Rooney Handicap.  I had mentioned her as a “possible play against” in the pre-race handicapping, but that was when I was focusing on Marina Ballerina, who ultimately scratched.  That left the class of Game Face to deal with what turned out to be a field of pretenders.  She seemingly won for fun and in doing so ads luster to the very strong contingent of female runners in North America at the moment.  I dubbed last year the “year of the filly” with the impressive performances of Zenyatta, Zarkava, and Goldikova (not to mention the Philadelphia “Phillies” becoming World Champions again for the first time since 1980), but this year could still wind up more impressive for the gals when all is said and done. 

Gio Ponti made it a hat trick of Grade 1 victories for the year by outlasting a fairly deep field of contenders in the Man O’ War at Belmont Park. The son of  Tale of the Cat just keeps on going strong, and with 3 Grade 1 turf wins now joins the discussion with Einstein for top male turf horse in the nation.  It’ll be interesting to see what the future plans are for this fall, as Gio Ponti owns a victory (with a 98 Beyer) over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  I’m fairly certain he’ll stick to the grass and point to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but stranger things have happened.

Heavy 1/9 favorite Benny the Bull was upset in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder in the “Summit of Speed” event.  This was one of the races I totally crapped out on, as neither my 2nd or 3rd choice were able to pull the upset.  Instead, longshot Eaton’s Gift stunned everyone by holding off a late run from Benny the Bull in the stretch.  Many (including me) had been anticipating a big run from Benny, but his late punch just didn’t have quite the same “oomph” that we’d seen in previous efforts such as the 2008 True North Handicap on Belmont Stakes day.  To put this in perspective, Eaton’s Gift hadn’t cracked the 82 Beyer level in any of his last 3 efforts, and was running into a perennial 100+ Beyer figure monster in Benny.  None of that mattered in the stretch at Calder.  I guess Benny just can’t catch a break at there, as it was at Calder last year that he was injured and ulimtately sidelined for 11 months.

Last, but certainly not least, Rail Trip was able to upset the highly acclaimed Parading and the filly Life is Sweet to run away with the TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup.  The son of Jump Start (A.P. Indy) joins the likes of esteemed former champions Seabsicuit, Affirmed, and Cigar as horses who have taken the premier race of the Hollywood Park summer meet.  Who knows for sure if we’ll see another Gold Cup at Hollywood? 

I’ve got to tip my hat here to Superterrifc from Green But Game, who was tweeting  her support of the horse and mentioned that she did the “digital walk of shame” to fire up her betting account with more cash just to bet him.  Nice job, Dana!  No shame in that what-so-ever! Rail Trip sure did look good in the post parade!  Here’s hoping her bank account is now totally “ranch” (it’s an inside joke that she and a few other twitter followers will get…but do expect an occasional and totally gratuitous “ranch” reference in posts going forward).

Getting back to the Gold Cup, I thought Life is Sweet also looked fantastic in the post parade.  It’s nice to see that the filly was running on well for show when seemingly all of the other off-the-pace types and closers were running in place and not really doing much.  My initial thought was that they may have waited a moment too long to ask for Life is Sweet’s run, but I’m not sure it would’ve made a real difference either way considering how smoothly Rail Trip was gliding to the wire.  Still, hats off to the Wygod family for having the courage to race her against the boys.  She proved she could hold her own as the post time favorite, Parading, wound up totally out of the money (and looked rather sweaty and anxious in the post parade).  Little by little you can see that notion that “fillies shouldn’t run against colts” being seriously challenged, and in my mind rightly so. 

In other action throughout the day Just as Well took the Arlington Handicap (G3).  Atomic Rain upset Papa Clem in the Long Branch ($175k), and would appear to be bound for the Haskell next.  Might he run into the super filly Rachel Alexandra if he does?  Only time will tell.  And of course, Giant Oak pulled another “Giant choke” routine as the heavy favorite in the American Derby.

One other race struck me as rather noteworthy today – a race that, as Foolish Pleasure opines, might be somewhat “less heralded” than the above races.  Like an unstoppable rebel force, the procession of winners sired by Medaglia d”Oro continued today with a victory from 2-year-old daughter Dashing Debby in the 34th running of the JJ’s Dream ($100k) at Calder.  We’ve already seen Rachel Alexandra make history with her Preakness victory, which came hot on the heels of fellow Medaglia d’Oro offspring Payton d’Oro winning the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico.  Add to that Gabby’s Golden Gal, C.S. Silk, Renda, and She’s our Annie.  That’s quite an impressive list for a sire who is only this year experiencing his first 3-year-old crop to go to post.

It would appear to be a two horse race between “Medags” (and yes, before anyone corrects me, I’m aware that the “g” is silent in Medaglia d’Oro) and Birdstone for top sire of the year honors. 

Another weekend is upon us, and you know what that means; it’s time for weekend warrior horseplayers to zero in on the major stakes action occurring across the country.  This Saturday in particular presents a plethora of opportunity, and we’ll be taking a closer look at the happenings at Calder, Belmont, Hollywood, Monmouth, and Arlington in an effort to pluck some winners from out of the air.  The story lines run deep, ranging from another chance to see Benny the Bull, to the return of Papa Clem, and westward journey for Parading, who I was able to get a firsthand look at in the Dixie at Pimlico on Preakness Day.

First, a couple of notes:

• I’ve got to bid a bit of an emotional farewell to one of this year’s more prominent 3-year-olds in Pioneer of the Nile, who has been retired from racing due to soft-tissue concerns.  I know I wasn’t his biggest fan, but I’m certainly appreciative of the traffic he helped generate for this site.  Would you believe that despite my focus on runners such as Curlin, Zenyatta, and Rachel Alexandra, that the undisputed king of search engine traffic causing people to land on this site was none other than Mr. Pioneer (or misspellings of his name).  Unreal.  He was a blog traffic gold mine – which tells me he must have some seriously devoted fans out there, and my heart goes out to each of them as well.  Of course, I can’t think of him without thinking of Mike from NY – who always pops into my mind when discussing Empire Makers. 

• Secondly, the TBA  homepage has undergone some serious revisions and is now ready to be unveiled to the public.  Some folks spent a good deal of time putting it all together, so if you get a chance swing on over and let us know what you think. 

Now back to the main event… 

Calder Race 8 – The Carry Back (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs (3:56 ET)

• #1 You Luckie Mann (9/5*)
• #5 Not for Silver (4/1)
• #2 Ask Joe (4/1)

Technically, the 35th running of The Carry Back is the 2nd leg of the “all stakes pick 4″ sequence at Calder, but I didn’t really have a strong enough opinion of the previous race (The Azalea – G3) to kick things off there.  Plus, we’re covering 7 races here. Just like we can’t bet every horse in each race, there’s simply not enough time in the day to go in depth on EVERY stakes race this weekend.  Back to the race at hand though…

You Luckie Mann simply looks much the best here on paper.  The son of Exchange Rate has yet to finish out of the trifecta in 8 lifetime races, including 4 wins.  He’s also the overwhelming “horse for the course” selection with all of his lifetime victories (4) coming here at Calder.  The price won’t be very appealing, but he might be useful single if you’re playing the exotics.  

Not For Silver looks like the most noteworthy challenger of the field.  Trainer Michael Trombetta is having a sensational year (23%), and this is the runner with the most graded stakes experience in the field.  On the downside, he hasn’t won since rattling off 3 straight victories to begin his career, but he ran into horses like Everyday Heroes and Capt. Candyman Can in the last two efforts that would likely destroy this field.

Truest Legend is a rather interesting “x-factor” type of runner in here.  I’m not fond of the odds (3/1), but he certainly looks like he’ll be a pace factor in his return to the dirt.  Ultimately I sided against him and went with Ask Joe for 3rd choice.  It was a tough call, but Ask Joe’s victories at the stakes level on dirt tips the scale in his favor as far as I’m concerned. 

Belmont Race 7 – The Man O’ War (Grade 1) – 1 3/8 Miles – Turf (4:12 ET)

• #7 Midships (3/1)
• #9 Gio Ponti (5/2*)
• #8 Dancing Forever (9/2)

Talk about some painful memories.  It’s hard to believe that it was a year ago already that I took the family up to Belmont to watch Curlin in his turf “debut” in last year’s running of the Man O’ War and left with a healthy dose of heartache and pain.  Looking over this year’s edition, I’m struck by the lack of likely pace outside of 3/1 second choice on the morning line, Midships.  If he gets loose on the lead, this could be a gate-to-wire type of race.  However, we are dealing with the turf, so that’s anything but a foregone conclusion.  There are also some “x-factor” type invaders from Europe who could be close up pressing the pace, which might open things up for the closers.

Speaking of closers, we’ve got two good ones here in both Dancing Forever and Gio Ponti, and I think they both make logical contenders in the exotics.  Gio Ponti is a horse that I’ve basically given the Rodney Dangerfield routine to in his last two races (”no respect!”), and he’s burned me both times.  Suffice to say I won’t let that happen again.  I’d prefer a better pace setup for him, but he’s proven to be a very valiant competitor.  You don’t win $1.2 million in 12 lifetime starts by accident. 

Dancing Forever supporters have to look a little bit further back for hist last victory in the Manhattan almost a year ago, and must also overlook two losses to Grand Couturier as well.  It’s a close call between these two for the final selection spot, which seems to be a repetitive theme in many of the races we’re covering this week.  I could also make a bit of a case for Marsh Slide here.  Just be careful here as this looks like a race in which several contenders have fairly decent shots of winding up in the winner’s circle photo.

Calder Race 9 – The Princess Rooney Handicap (Grade 1) – 6 Furlongs (4:26 ET)

• #9 Marina Ballerina (6/1)
• #6 Game Face (3/1)
• #4 B.R’s Girl (8/1)

Moving back to Calder, the main story line for the 25th running of the Princess Rooney Handicap is the scratch of Indian Blessing, who evidently was given some antibiotics by trainer Bob Baffert who then decided that she’d likely test positive and be in jeopardy of having a win (should she have prevailed, which would’ve been highly probable) overturned.   Good move on Baffert’s part to sit her down then.  If she’s been fighting an illness, then give her some additional time off.

With the leading lady out of the race, most of the attention will probably focus on Game Face, a multiple graded stakes winner with nearly half a million dollars in lifetime earnings.  I’ll be honest, my gut tells me that while the “real” Game Face of last year would easily handle this field, she’s probably a play against this weekend.  I’m not sure what exactly happened in her last effort at Belmont, but trainer Todd Pletcher has been hard at work trying to get the classy daughter of Menifee back into her usual form.  Given the fact that she’s the likely favorite, I’ll probably try to beat her – but I wouldn’t leave her off the multi-race exotic wagers.  Not with the class she’s previously shown.

Marina Ballerina is the horse that really jumps off the page at me.  She’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Calder, and has 4 wins at the 6 furlong distance.  Even better, her recent form is most encouraging.  There’s just so much to like here, and that recent bullet workout of 4 furlongs in 47 and 3 on July 6 makes me think she’s the one to beat.  Of course, looking over the Daily Racing Form, it appears I’m not alone in that opinion, so don’t expect anything close to the 6/1 she was “blessed” with on the morning line. 

Rounding out the selections, I was hopelessly torn between either B.R’s Girl or Jessica is Back.  Ultimately I sided with B.R’s Girl for now, but that could easily change depending on who makes the stronger appearance in the post parade.  In other words, that last effort for all 3 of my selections in the U Can Do It on 7/13 looks like the key race here to focus on from a past performance standpoint.  They might run back in the same order if Game Face falters.

Monmouth Park  Race 9 – The Long Branch ($175k) – 1 1/16 Miles (4:50 ET)

• #5 Papa Clem (2/1)
• #2 Atomic Rain (3/1)
• #3 Despite the Odds (7/2)

I’ll be honest, the entire reason I’m covering this race is because I’m very excited to see Papa Clem get back into the ring.  This was a horse I was very excited about going into the Triple Crown season this year, and while the best he managed to accomplish was 4th in the Kentucky Derby, I’m still left thinking that he might have a decent future ahead of him.  He’s been off since the Preakness, where he disappointed in finishing a distant 6th, but he won’t have to deal with anyone like Rachel Alexandra or Mine That Bird in this field.  This race appears to setup well for him, and trainer Gary Stute may have found the right spot to get him back to his winning ways like we saw in the Arkansas Derby against Old Fashioned and eventual Belmont champion Summer Bird back in April.

Atomic Rain is another interesting runner, as the pace for this race might setup well for him as well.  It goes without saying that I’ve got something of a soft spot for Smart Strike colts, and he’s certainly working his tail off in preparation for this effort.  I’d give this guy a big shot to steal the race here.  One last factor to keep in mind is that basically all of this horse’s better efforts have come over the main track at Monmouth.  He certainly likes the surroundings here.  Give him a long look in the post parade and consider teeing up if the odds are right.

Looking over the rest of the field, Despite the Odds is a rather aptly named runner, as he’ll likely take a decent amount of action at the windows.  Despite his name (I had to use “despite” somewhere in this text without typing his name), the odds probably won’t be right for a runner that seems to do best when alone on the lead.  He’s also a Speightstown colt, which to me suggests that the distance may be a concern, but he seems game enough to be a logical exotics contender.  It’s kind of hard to be too harsh on a runner that is 3 for 4 lifetime.  I just don’t think he can win this race is all I’m saying.

Calder Race 10 – The Smile Sprint Handicap (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs (4:55 ET)

• #4 Benny the Bull (6/5*)
• #2 How’s Your Halo (4/1)
• #6 Yesbyjimminy (4/1)

It’s Benny the Bull time!  By far one of my favorite sprinters in the world, the son of Lucky Lionel returns from a game 2nd effort to a very talented Fabulous Strike in the True North Handicap on June 6.  That race was his first in nearly a year following an injury that sidelined him following a victory at Calder last July.  Now he returns to the scene of the crime and looks to get back on the winning path.  The race sets up very well for him, and trainer Rick Dutrow seems to be anticipating a victory for Benny.  Something must be amiss in the world if Dutrow and I see eye-to-eye over something, but that’s definitely what appears to be happening here.  I’m going all in on Benny and will likely single him in the Pick 4 at Calder.

How’s Your Halo makes the most sense to me if you’re trying to upset the heavy favorite.  He’s proven at the distance and fares fairly well over the Calder main track.  Even better, he seems to be in fairly sharp recent form. 

Yesbymimminy needs to find some of that past magic that led to 7 straight victories at one point last year.  It looks like an awkward start doomed him in his last effort, but perhaps with a clean break he can turn the tables on How’s Your Halo? 

Arlington Park Race 12 – The Arlington Handicap (Grade 3) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:40 CT)

• #12 Cosmonaut (3/1)
• #9 Just as Well (5/1)
• #2 Public Speaker (20/1

We head to the midwest for the 74th running of the Arlington Handicap, and this one looks like it could be the biggest race of the day (despite the Grade 3 status).  Cosmonaut looks like the class of the field on paper.  The 7 year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid is a runner I’ve been fond of playing over the years, even if the wins have been a bit thin.  He’s been averaging about a victory per year lately, which would suggest he’s already had his moment in the sun this year by virtue of having prevailed at Belmont back in May.  I like that he’s dropping back down to the G3 level, as the upper stakes levels may be just a tad too much for him these days.  All one need to do to appreciate what he’s been up against is look through his recent running lines.  Names like Gio Ponti, Kip Deville, and Thorn Song feature quite prominently.  Needless to say, I feel any of those runners would be logical selections if entered here.  He’ll be involved in the pace, and with the exception of the Mott runner drawn to his immediate outside and the Rebecca Maker runner breaking from the 2 hole, could have things his way.  Look for a big performance on Saturday.

Just as Well is a horse that should be moving well late.  Note that last out in the Dixie he was just behind Parading, a horse we’ll hear more about in the next race we cover at Hollywood. Personally, I thought the Dixie was a fairly stacked race on the Preakness undercard, and Just as Well ran very, shall we say, well.  Man, I obviously need to get a Thesaurus to look for some usable synonyms.  Note that he’s also ran gamely against Kip Deville, and finished ahead of Court Vision in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap back in February.  The son of A.P. Indy looms a very serious threat.

Stream Cat is another horse that makes some sense here, but I had to side against him as I just wasn’t enthralled with his past efforts.  They were okay, but I’m looking elsewhere…which led me to Public Speaker.  The son of Distorted Humor has obviously never faced the level of competition he’ll see today, but I love that he’s 5 for 9 lifetime.  He would’ve had a close 2nd to go along with that but was disqualified and placed 4th two back in the Tin Man here at Arlington.  I’m going to take a shot on this guy’s recent form and expect a minor award here in the Arlington Handicap.  The odds should be worth such a play.  Again, I’m not suggesting he’s a likely win candidate, but he makes plenty of sense underneath. 

Hollywood Park Race 8 – The TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (4:30 PT)

• #5 Parading (4/1)
• #6 Dakota Phone (6/1)
• #4 Bullsbay (8/1)

We wind up the day with the 70th running of the Hollywood Gold Cup.  It’s sort of a somber moment as it appears likely that Hollywood Park’s days are officially numbered now.  I’m not going to spend much time on that except to say that the idea of bulldozing Hollywood and turning it into yet another of the ubiquitous “strip malls” that dot our countryside during this, the “great recession” makes about as much sense as my picks for a maiden level turf sprint race -  in other words, not a whole helluva lot of sense. 

I’m going with Parading here, despite being a lukewarm favorite at 4/1 and doing the east-to-west coast thing that I seldom seem fond of.  Basically it all comes down to how fond I was of the son-of-Pulpit’s effort in the Dixie.  I know, I know…I’m a sucker for horses that I’ve seen in person.  Perhaps it’s the familiarity aspect of it all.  However, even if i disconnect myself from that experience, he still winds up as my top selection.  The obvious “concern” will be how he handles the synthetic surface at Hollywood, but if it’s any indication (and these things are seldom apples-to-apples), he does have an impressive victory at the G2 level at Keeneland. Further, and not to try and stoke the flames of this argument again, but he is a fairly accomplished turf runner.  Just take that into consideration is all I’m saying. 

Dakota Phone and Song of Navarrone were a bit tough to seperate, and to be honest I’ve got them ranked fairly close to one another along with Bullsbay and Rail Trip.  I thought both ‘Dakota and ‘Navarone would be moving well late, and it looks like this race will come down to the final sixteenth or so to decide. 

Regarding Bullsbay – Yes, I picked him as an upset shot in the Stephen Foster and he totally burned me.  Some might not think losing by a length in a quarter was being “burned” – but c’mon…he finished behind Einstein?  How on earth was that even possible given the run that Einy had?  Still, we’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Kevin warns perpetually of the folly of discounting Tiznow offspring at long odds, then he goes and discounts one himself and….voila – huge upset victory.  Just to play it safe, I made him 3rd choice.  I figure that’s a nice way to not totally discount him, but not put all my eggs in the Tiznow basket.  I don’t know….it made sense to me at 10PM Friday night as I wrote this, so work with it people! 

Best of luck to all!

“Saturday in the park. I think it was the 4th of July.”

As we take time to remember the birth of the nation this weekend with our July 4 festivities, we’ll also be treated to some quality racing action by virtue of the holiday having landed on a Saturday.  What better way to celebrate the triumph of our colonial forces over tyrannical British rule, or the victory won at Gettysburg by Federal forces over Lee’s infamous Army of Northern Virginia than by taking in some racing action while you sit back and relax in your favorite chair?  No doubt some fireworks will be in store later in the evening as dusk approaches.  Might we also witness some fireworks on the race track earlier in the day?  We’ll take a look at some of the major action going on at Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Hollywood Park.

We’ll kick things off in Belmont by looking at the late Pick 4, which begins with the 8th race of the afternoon.  We managed to nail a Pick 4 last week at Belmont, as the Beatles might say “with a little help from our friends.”  We’ll see if this week can bear similar results.

Belmont Race 8 – The Dwyer (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (4:44 ET)

• #1 Warrior’s Reward (9/5*)
• #5 American Dance (8/1)
• #2 Convocation (5/1)

Only 7 runners are entered for the 92nd running of The Dwyer, but it’s a very interesting race nonetheless.  Most of the attention will rightly be focused on morning line favorite, Warrior’s Reward.  The son of white-hot sire Medaglia d’Oro just missed in the Northern Dancer on 6/13 and has turned in a sharp bullet workout on 6/29 while looking to make amends in the ever crucial 3rd start of his current form cycle.  He’s the one you’ve got to beat to score.

Looking over the rest of the field, #5 American Dance makes quite a bit of sense to me at very generous odds of 8/1.  The son of A.P. Indy has knocked heads with the likes of Dunkirk, Warrior’s Reward, Old Fashioned, and Imperial Council in his young career – fairly good company if you ask me.  He was no match for the favorite last February when the running line denotes that he “faltered.”  If you draw a line through that race, the Todd Pletcher trainee seems to be improving nicely.  At 8/1 it won’t take much for him to be worth of a spot play, and if nothing else he’s a nice horse to consider using underneath in the exotics.

Convocation is another improving runner, this time a son of Pulpit, who took 4 tries to break his maiden.  Trainer James Jerkens seems to have him coming into form nicely and he reunites with jockey Alan Garcia, who rode him in his debut.  It is interesting to note that he was steadied and “boxed in” when losing to Top It two races a back, a horse that was soundly defeated by another of today’s rivals (#4 Masala).  I’m assuming that if not for that trip trouble, Convocation would’ve defeated Top It as well.  Just a hunch.

Obviously then, I’m taking a stand against the 2nd choice on the line, #6 Just Ben (2/1) for all but the bottom of exotic wagers.  My thinking is that being a Speightstown colt, he’s probably better suited for the shorter sprint distances that he’s run effectively at thus far.  I’m not sure a mile and a sixteenth is his game. 

Belmont Race 9 – The Prioress (G1) – 6 Furlongs (5:16 ET)

• #6 Gabby’s Golden Gal (7/2)
• #1 Cat Moves/ #1A Light Green (3/1)
• #8 On the Menu (6/1)

We move into Grade 1 territory for the 62nd running of The Prioress.  This is a very interesting 3-year-old filly race.  One wonders how small this field might’ve turned out if Rachel Alexandra had decided to run here instead of the Mother Goose?  Lucky for these guys, there is no Rachel today.  That being said, they will have their own talented daughter of Medaglia d”Oro to deal with in #6 Gabby’s Golden Gal.  You might remember Gabby from Belmont Stakes day this year, as she got a bit overheated following her dominating victory in the Acorn.  She looked like an absolute beast that day, and has been training like an absolute beast ever since (two bullet workouts on 6/20 and 6/28).  Looking over the competition arrayed against her today, she might well have to be a beast to prevail in the Prioress.  I say this because she’s cutting back drastically to the 6 furlong distance, which might not be her best game.  Additionally, she seems a speedy type, and this race is not without others who will have designs on the lead in the early going.   I’d spread a bit here in the Pick 4 is all I’m saying.

The coupled entry of #1 Cat Moves and #1 Light Green forms an interesting duo for owner Edward Evans and trainers Tony Dutrow (Cat Moves) and Todd Pletcher (Light Green). Light Green is the faster of the two and the most likely to be involved in the pace setup that should also involve Gabby’s Golden Gal and Selva.  Cat Moves is an improving but lightly raced daughter of Tale of the Cat who is not without some speed of her own.  It’ll be interesting to see how this race sets up for each of them.

Don’t forget about trainer Larry Jones, who is sitting in a sneaky position on the outside with #8 On the Menu.  This will obviously be a step up in class for the daughter of Canadian Frontier, but the race may come together nicely for her if she can secure a good stalking position just behind the expected pace. I think this horse has a better shot of hitting the board than others with lower odds on the morning line, including #7 Selva (5/1) and #3 Heart Ashley (4/1), who was all out despite an easy lead to hold off the late charging Cinderella’s Wish in the Miss Preakness back in May.   I remember Heart Ashley being a very fine looking filly though, so I will be checking her out in the post parade to try and make a final evaluation.

Belmont Race 10 – The Suburban Handicap (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:49 ET)

• #3 It’s a Bird (2/1*)
• #4 Asiatic Boy (5/2)
• #1 Finallymadeit (20/1)

 We drop back down to the Grade 2 level and stretch back out to a route of ground for the 123rd running of the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap.  This race came up very strong on paper and is perhaps the most difficult to separate of the entire Pick 4 sequence.  I wound up on the chalk, #3 It’s a Bird, for top honors nonetheless.  Back to back 107 Beyer figures and 3 victories in your last 4 races tends to make a runner stick out.   Having proven victories at distances ranging from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles, I’m not worried about the distance of The Suburban.  He should be in a great spot to receive a strong stalking trip and then look to make his move as the field enters the turn. 

Asiatic Boy is the x-factor of the race, as he returns on short rest from his battle with Einstein for Place honors behind Macho Again in the Stephen Foster (G1) on 6/13.  He’s probably best known as the horse that ran 2nd to Curlin in the 2008 Dubai World Cup.  He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when dusted by Well Armed in the 2009 edition, but then bounced back with a big effort in the Stephen Foster. I’m not sure where to rank this horse as he seems to be a hit or miss type.  I’ll give him a shot like It’s a Bird to sit a nice stalking trip as his past performance lines are filled with comments that begin “tracked” or “rated.” 

A longshot that really intrigues me here is #1 Finallymadeit.  It’s rather hard to believe that we can get anything like 20/1 on a horse like this.  He’s won 16 races lifetime, including 2 this year, for a grand total of over $900,000 in earnings.  Perhaps more impressively, if you like It’s a Bird in this race, do note that Finallymadeit defeated him last November.  He’s probably running into an unfavorable pace setup, as #10 Samhoon and #8 Cool Coal Man figure to be looking for the lead early on as well, but certainly he’s worth factoring into the exotics at least at such odds. 

I also wouldn’t totally sleep on #2 Dry Martini as well.  He’s a notch below the others, but might be the one that benefits the most from the pace setup. 

In the final leg of the Pick 4 (Race 11 – a $44k Maiden Special Weight), I think you can reduce the field down to #1 Wild Entry,  #1A Grassy, and #7 Tawaared.

Belmont Late Pick 4 Ticket ($48)

1,5/ 1,6,8/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,7

Monmouth Park – Race 10 – The United  Nations (G1) – 1 3/8 Miles – Turf (5:20 ET)

• #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
• #1 Banrock (6/1)
• #5 Court Vision (3/1)

We move to Monmouth Park in New Jersey for their feature race of the afternoon, the 56th running of the United Nations (G1) going 1 3/8 miles over the turf course.  Very difficult race to decipher.  I thought the pace setup might favor Presious Passion getting to the lead, and if so he may be very difficult to take down.  This is the kind of runner you’ve got to respect, with 3 wins in his last 5 races (all of them finishes in the exacta).  All things considered, 9/2 is fairly generous value for a runner like this, although I don’t think he’ll be that high come post time (I’m thinking more like 3/1?). 

I wouldn’t sleep on Banrock though either, as this runner almost nailed Presious Passion in the Monmouth Stakes.  He should be right there at the end as well.   Another small move forward and he’s a likely candidate for win honors. 

Court Vision will be a popular selection based on name recognition, but we simply don’t know if the distance will be to his liking.  I expect a game effort, just didn’t see enough to pull the trigger and make him the top selection.  I could imagine him having his work cut out for him as he tries to close into Presious Passion’s lead late in the stretch. 

Better Talk Now is a horse that regular readers know I always cover.  He’s simply one of my favorite  horses in the world.  The legendary “black beast” and former turf champion.  I thought he looked excellent running on gamely for show in the Manhattan Handicap (G1) on Belmont Stakes day.  Similar to Court Vision, the pace scenario doesn’t exactly flatter his chances as a late closing type.  In the end I just trust “blackie’s” heart and soul a bit more than many of the other runners.

Another guy I was trying to find a way to make a case for is Wesley.  One of these days, this horse is going to bust out and run a career defining race.  It’s just hard to imagine it being this Saturday. If, however, he looks good in the post parade, I might just be tempted enough to take a flyer on him.

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The American Handicap (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

• #5 Whatsthescript (8/5)
• #2 Storm Military (5/1)
• #4 Monterey Jazz (5/2)

We’ll keep things simple here as we wind up with the 70th running of the American Handicap (G2) at Hollywood.  Only 6 horses are signed on here, and #5 Whatsthescript appears to be the obvious horse to beat.  Storm Military and Monterey Jazz will likely be the leaders in the early going, and Whatsthescript will be trying to close into whatever those two produce.  It’s important to note that Monterey Jazz did defeat Whatsthescript back in December 0f 2007, but I simply feel Whatsthescript is a much better horse at this point in his career.

So there you have it.  Make sure you enjoy your holiday weekend and hopefully by the time we’re through here you are saddling up to witness a kick ass fireworks display with a few extra dollars in your pocket.  Happy 4th of July everyone!