Belmont Day; Undercard Selections

4 06 2009

It’s not often that horse racing fans are treated to a weekend quite like this. Not only do we get the 141st running of the Belmont, but the entire card for Saturday is a star studded affair filled with quality runners. Mine That Bird, Forever Together, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justwhistledixie…they are all here. What’s more, guaranteed $1 million pools await both Pick 4 and Pick 6 players. If there’s ever been a day outside of the Breeders’ Cup that exemplified the whole idea behind the “Take Back Saturday” initiative, it’s right here, right now. 

Obviously I’m jumping the gun a bit by posting my picks a full 48 hours in advance of post time. Needless to say late changes and scratches could totally alter the complexion of these races (and indeed the selections themselves). Even worse, one cannot be certain what Mother Nature may have in store.  As of this writing, current forecasts for Elmont, NY (according to weather.com) call for “periods of heavy rain” on Friday, followed by a “mostly sunny” Saturday with highs near 77°.

Let’s hope for the best then and assume that Saturday will be a glorious day for racing, befitting of all the talented competitors, equine and human, answering the call to post.   

DO NOT make the mistake though of overlooking this undercard.  It is jam packed with interesting races.  What follows are my initial thoughts, and while I rank my top 3 selections, I’ve decided to forego offering actual wager advice.  My reason for doing so is that, in all honesty, my wagers tend to change once I get a look at the horses in the post parade.  This means that any selections I give out here could be played by someone reading along, whereas my own wagers have evolved.  I try to “tweet” these changes whenever possible, but as one can imagine that’s not always so. 

Besides, as I always say, one should do their own handicapping if they are wagering a single dime.  It’s your money, so you’d be wise to make sure you’re betting your picks.  Not to mention you don’t have to wager to watch horse racing.  You can be a fan of the horses and not wager a single dime.  It’s still the best show in town. 

What then is the value of my selections and why do I bother sharing?  Because…we’re horseplayers.  And if we’re not that we’re at least horse racing fans. We’re the most opinionated, stubborn mules the world has ever seen.   Besides, we love to share our opinions. Speaking of which, make sure you check out the rest of the TBA bloggers as well, as no doubt we’ll be all over the place with our coverage. Quite a few of us “tweet” as well, if you’re so inclined.

With that in mind, I want to hear as many selections as possible from commentors. Everything you’ve got.   C’mon peeps. It’s Belmont time!  Sound off like you’ve got a pair!!!

 

Here’s a closer look at each of the races comprising the Pick 6 sequence, beginning with the True North Handicap (G2) in race 6 and ending  with the Manhattan Handicap (G1) in race 10. The Belmont, which concludes both wagering sequences, will be the subject of it’s own post.  It’s the Belmont for godsakes…it deserves it’s own post. 

Race 6:  The 31st running of the True North Handicap (G2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #1 Benny the Bull (E. Prado/ R. Dutrow) 5/2
  • #2 Silver Edition (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 8/1
  • #3 Two Step Salsa (G. Gomez/ S. bin Suroor) 3/1
  • #4 Sixthirteen (E. Coa/ M. Hushion) 12/1
  • #5 Desert Key (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #6 Fabulous Strike (R. Dominguez/ T. Beattie) 2/1*

Selections:

  • #1 Benny the Bull (5/2)
  • #6 Fabulous Strike (2/1)
  • #5 Desert Key (6/1)

We kick things off in the Pick 6 sequence with the True North Handicap. The race marks the return of one of the most popular sprinters in North America, #1 Benny the Bull.  Last year it took Benny until the final few hundred yards to kick into high gear before he was able to run down Man of Danger and Abraaj in the stretch.  He ought to get a decent pace to run at here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all given both the 6-year-old son of Lucky Lionel’s popularity and his human connections (particularly trainer Rick Dutrow) if he wound up going to post as the favorite.  Currently he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #6 Fabulous Strike.  The question will be whether Benny is in sharp enough form to prevail after being on the shelf since last July.  If his workout tab is any indication (and really, what else have we to go on barring last minute eyeball handicapping during the post parade?), then he appears to be ready to roll.  His last 3 workouts in particular being the most encouraging.  

Fabulous Strike ought to be on the gas early on, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to win.  Still, the son of Smart Strike would appear to be the one the rest of the field will need to catch in order to get their picture taken in the winner’s circle.  #5 Desert Key hasn’t been out of the Exacta in his last 8 races and looks like a “must use” horse underneath in the exotics.  You might be able to get away with using Benny the Bull as a single on your exotic wagers, but I’d probably cover Fabulous Strike as well just to be safe. 

 

Race 7:  The 16th running of the Just A Game (G1) – 1 Mile (Turf)

  • #1 Carribean Sunset (R. Dominguez/ C. Clement) 6/1
  • #2 Raw Silk (P. Lopez/ T. Albertrani) 10/1
  • #3 Captain’s Lover (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 8/1
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 15/1
  • #5 Forever Together (J. Leparoux/ J. Sheppard) 6/5*
  • #6 Modern Look (G. Gomez/ R. Frankel) 8/1
  • #7 Diamondrella (R. Maragh/ A. Penna Jr.) 8/1
  • #8 My Princess Jess (C. Velasquez/ B. Tagg) 5/1

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (6/5*)
  • #6 Modern Look (8/1)
  • #7 Diamondrella (8/1)

The Just A Game features the current top turf female in the nation, Forever Together.  The 5-year-old daughter of Belong to Me and current Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion has won her last 3 races, as well as 4 of her last 5 overall.  She seems quite lethal at any distance from a mile onward, and boasts a 3-2-0-1 record from today’s mile distance.  Clearly she’s the horse to beat.  The question is whether any of the runners in this field have what it takes to potentially pull the upset?  

Depending on what kind of impression she makes in the post parade, it migh be worth taking a ride on #6 Modern Look.  She’ll likely offer some value as her running lines don’t necessarily jump off the page at you.  However, take note of a few key items. For starters, she was favored in her U.S. debut back in March and ran a decent race, all things considered, finishing 2nd. Certainly she’s got a right to improve.  Her workout lines also suggest she’s at least enjoying her Belmont surroundings. Most importantly, however, note the runners she finished  4th to last May at Longchamp (France):  Zarkava, Goldikova, and Halfway to Heaven.  Zarkava or Goldikova would be obvious singles in this race in my opinion, even with Forever Together. With that in mind, I’m going to use Modern Look as my 2nd choice behind the favorite. 

Looking deeper, #7 Diamondrella has gutted out 5 consecutive victoires going back to last June, including her only start of 2009 in the Giants Causeway at Keeneland in April.  This will obviously be quite a class hike for her as she faces off against the favorite, but you’ve got to like that sort of consistent form. The obvious question will be whether she can handle the extra distance as she seems to be more of a sprinter. #2 Raw Silk will likely be the pace and should enjoy the mile distance of the Just A Game.  One also can’t overlook the runners on the bookends. #1 Carribean Sunset was favored in her U.S. debut last month in the Beaugay (G3), but came up 1 3/4 lenths short behind #8 My Princess Jess.  I could see these two fighting for a minor award.

 

Race 8: The 25th running of the Woody Stephens (G2) – 7 Furlongs

  • #1 Regal Ransom (A. Garcia/ S. bin Suroor) 2/1*
  • #1A Everyday Heroes (J.C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 2/1*
  • #2 This Ones for Phil (G. Gomez/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  • #3 Gone Astray (E. Prado/ C. McGaughey III) 15/1
  • #4 Munnings (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #5 Triumphant Flight (K. Desormeaux/ E. Kruljac) 15/1
  • #6 Hello Broadway (R. Dominguez/ B. Tagg) 12/1
  • #7 Kensei (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 15/1
  • #8 Hull (M. Mena/ D. Romans) 3/1

Selections:

  • #2 This Ones for Phil (7/2)
  • #1 Regal Ransom/ #1A Everyday Heroes (2/1*)
  • #8 Hull (3/1)

The Woody Stephens has bit of a “hey, whatever happened to so-and-so?” feel, as a couple of characters return to the spotlight after running a bit under the radar recently.  Trainer Rick Dutrow sends out the “Beyer freak” #2 This Ones for Phil.  You might remember this guy as the dude who improved his Beyer figure by 39 points in the Sunshine Millions Dash back in January.  Since then he was taken off the Triple Crown trail and kept at the shorter distances, where he’s proved he can consistently churn out impressive speed figures.  He hasn’t been able to win since January, but he has run into some pretty good runners in Quality Road, Big Drama, and Mr. Fantasy along the way.  He should find this field more to his liking, as well as the tricky 7 furlong distance that he’s proven he can handle (albeit through a disqualification of Big Drama in the Swale). 

The coupled entry of #1 Regal Ransom and #1A Everyday Heroes looks quite formidable here as well.  The interseting thing is that I actually liked Regal Ransom quite a bit leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but I’m now more interested in Everyday Heroes, who is undefeated in 4 lifetime starts.   Then there’s #8 Hull, who at one point was considered a Preakness contender before being pointed to the Woody Stephens instead.  I think you’d be wise to cover all of these runners in the exotics as this appears to be a bit more open a race than the first two in the sequence.  

Another horse you’ve got to consider here is #4 Munnings.  Remember this guy?  At one point last year he was one of the more highly regarded juveniles.  After disappearing for many months, he resurfaced at the allowance level and promptly posted a career best Beyer figure (101) in running a respectable 2nd in his first start of 2009.  Although he’s yet to win at the 7 furlong distance, he is a Speightstown colt, which means you’d be wise to consider him at any sprint distance.  Of the entire field, he’s the runner I’m most interested in getting an actual look at in the post parade.  I didn’t rank him as one of my top 3 selections, but he’s an intriguing runner in here.  The only trouble is that he might get hammered at the windows due to that triple digit Beyer.  If the value is there, and if he makes an impression in the paddock, he could well be the play. 

 

Race 9:  The 79th running of the Acorn (G1) – 1 Mile

  • #1 Casanova Move (J. Lezcano/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #2 Gabby’s Golden Gal (J. Castellano/ B. Baffert) 15/1
  • #3 Be Fair (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #4 Funny Moon (A. Garcia/ C. Clement) 8/1
  • #5 Doremifasollatido (E. Coa/ J. Jerkens) 6/1
  • #6 Livin Lovin (R. Dominguez/ S. Klesaris) 15/1
  • #7 Dream Play (R. Migliore/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
  • #8 Justwhistledixie (J. Leparoux/ K. McLaughlin) 8/5*
  • #9 Four Gifts (R. Albarado Jr./ S. Asmussen) 6/1

Selections:

  • #8 Justwhistledixie (8/5*)
  • #4 Funny Moon (8/1)
  • #7 Dream Play (6/1)

The Acorn would seem to be all about #8 Justwhistledixie.  If there’s one 3-year-old filly in the nation capable of running respectably against Rachel Alexandra, it’s her.  Unfortunately, she scratched from the Kentucky Oaks last month due to the sloppy track conditions.  We all know what happened next as Queen Rachel romped by over 20 lengths and caught the eye of Jess Jackson.  The rest is history.  With no Rachel to contend with today, Justwhistledixie looks like a clear favorite that those looking for a life changing score in the exotics will have to hope they can get past.  

Of all the contenders, I’d give the improving #4 Funny Moon the best shot to pull the upset.  Not only is she improving rapidly, but her final times at the mile distance in her last two victories would appear to stack up very well against this field.  Also note that she’ll have Alan Garcia aboard for the trip, who also piloted Justwhistledixie in 3 of her 5 lifetime victories.  If she looks live in the post parade, she could be just the type of horse that helps blow up the payouts in the exotics.  

#1 Casanova Move has had the misfortune of running into ‘Dixie several times in recent memory, and seems to find a way to hit the board underneath.  It would be nice to see #5 Doremifasollatido in the mix at the end, if only to hear her name in the stretch call, but I’m not sure if the mile distance will be to her liking.  On the other hand, #6 Livin Lovin, #7 Dream Play, and #3 Be Fair all have victories at the distance, and are lightly raced enough that we’ve still got room for improvement.  Dream Play and Livin Lovin can also boast of being graded stakes winners.  Same goes for #9 Four Gifts.  This one might not be as obvious as it appears on paper is all I’m sayin’, although I do expect the favorite to prevail. 

 

Race 10: The 108th running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf)

  • #1 Court Vision (R. Dominguez/ W. Mott) 4/1
  • #1A Optimer (R. Rodriguez/ S. Dutrow) 4/1
  • #2 Champs Elysees (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1
  • #3 Marsh Slide (J. Castellano/ N. Drysdale) 20/1
  • #4 Premium Gold (E. Prado/ J. Kimmel) 20/1
  • #5 Gio Ponti (G. Gomez/ C. Clement) 7/2
  • #6 Wesley (K. Desormeaux/ M. Hennig) 12/1
  • #7 Senior (M. Luzzi/ J. Delozier) 50/1
  • #8 Better Talk Now (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 15/1
  • #9 Cosmonaut (J. Lezcano/ P. Serpe) 6/1
  • #10  Interpatation (R. Maragh/ R. Barbara) 20/1
  • #11  Lauro (A. Starke/ A. Wohler) 15/1
  • #12  Cowboy Cal (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1*
  • #2B  Zambezi Sun (J. Leparoux/ R. Frankel) 12/1

Selections:

  • #6 Wesley (12/1)
  • #12 Cowboy Cal (3/1*)
  • #1 Court Vision (4/1)

I’m going to come right out and say something that probably sounds like heathen blasphemy on Belmont Day.  The Manhattan Handicap is the “race of the day”, by far, on paper.  Just look at this field!   I’ll start with “Blackie” (#8  Better Talk Now), a former turf champion and over $4 million lifetime earner.  You’ve no idea how happy it would make me if Blackie found a way to get it done on Saturday.  I’ve loved this horse for years, and whlie he’s clearly in the autumn of his distinguished career, it warms my heart whenever I see his name among the entries.  Over the past year I’ve also become quite fond of both #1 Court Vision and #12 Cowboy Cal on the turf.  Cowboy Cal in particular has quietly become one of my favorite runners. I was hoping to get more than 3/1 on him here, and was a bit shocked that he was the favorite on the morning line, but I suspect bettors will be spread out here offering decent value on whomever you wind up on. 

Despite my affinity for these runners, I’m going to pick a shocker here for the upset.  #6 Wesley looks primed and ready to run a big one. I saw this guy on Preakness day at Pimlico and was quite taken with him in the post parade fo the Dixie. If you didn’t see that race, it’s worth watching again. Wesley ran well enough to win, only he was forced to steady several times on the turns.  His running line merely denotes “6wd 1/8″, but it was much more than just being wide.  I left thinking he was by far the best horse of that field, despite finishing 3rd. I’m expecting a big improvement this weekend, and I’m encouraged to see his latest workout at Belmont on 5/31 was a sharp 4 furlongs in 47 and 3.  This is a salty group, and he’s obviously got to prove he can get the extra distance here, but based on that wide trip in the Dixie I’d argue that he’s already been a mile and a quarter! #5 Gio Ponti, #2 Champs Elysees, and # 9 Cosmonaut could all make some noise in here as well. Depending on how you’re playing your exotics, this might be another wise spot to go deep and spread on the coverage. 

Best of luck to all. With any luck you’re still alive in your exotics as we get set for Belmont 141.


Comments : 6 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Benny the Bull, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Rachel Alexandra Rant; no Rachel in the Belmont

29 05 2009

It’s official.  Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont.  This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown.  Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress). 

First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again.  You know that he wanted to showcase his filly  in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory.  Like I’ve  said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra.  In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow;  sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage.  In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made. 

The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net.  Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking.   Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today.  The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between.  What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.

The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this: 

  • “I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”  

Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt.  Nobody wants to see that.  It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts.  Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)?  They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated.   I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe.   How’d that one turn out?   How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?  And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar?   I just don’t get it.  Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back?   Because she’s a “she”?  See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being.  The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt.   If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well. 

The next line of comments goes something like this:

  • “I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”

Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this.  Almost.  Do people even think before they speak?  She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown?  For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner.   Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness?  Did I miss something?  I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything?  If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof.  You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not. 

Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness?   Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win?  That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown.  That’s what makes it special.  Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing.   I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears.  Same goes here.  You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful?  Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.

 

Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin???  That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.  

When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.”  Oh really?   Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history.  Forgive me, then.   It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner.  On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness?  Yeah…didn’t think so.   If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen.   Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.

Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either.  He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding.   It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime.  I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07.  “Curlin got beat by a girl!”  Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was).  Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ?  Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl.  How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?). 

The last  line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:

  • “Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”

When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all. 

“Oh lord, won’t you buy me, a tour-na-ment ticket, my friends don’t know horses, I must make amends…”

Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness.  How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me.  Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples?  Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?

Consider the following stats.  Here are the opening  1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness.  Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:

2008 Belmont:

  • opening 1/4 – :23.82
  • opening 1/2 – :48.30

2009 Preakness:

  • opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
  • opening 1/2 mile – :46.25

See that?  Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness!   And why was that exactly?   Well, several reasons.  In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead.  Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30.   That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead.  The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing. 

In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way.   She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns.  Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be.   Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate.  The result was a speed duel.  Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner.  It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man.   That’s what made her win so impressive.   It shouldn’t have happened.  Most horses would not have pulled it off.  In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83,  1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta. 

So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like?  Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness.  I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome.   Eyes can be deceiving though.  Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.  

Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of  looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.”   Would he?  Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different.  The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her.  That’s it.  That’s the only certain conclusion one can make.  The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas.   I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).

Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date.   Would those races be exciting? Most definitely!  But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat.  Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone. 

In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off.  Rest up, baby girl.  There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond.  Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga.  I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself.   Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….  :-)


Comments : 23 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Mine That Bird shocks the world!

2 05 2009

Jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-RAIL) has done it again, exploding up the rail in the 135th  Kentucky Derby to shock the world by winning the nation’s biggest race at odds of 50/1.  The win completes a perfect sweep of the both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby, and both in amazing style.  Mine That Bird was 50/1 on the tote board going to post, and goes down as the second longest priced horse to win the Kentucky Derby in it’s storied history.

50/1!!!!!!  Are you kidding me?  In the Derby?  Wow, guess we just missed “the next Giacomo.”  Watching Calvin celebrate afterwards all one can wonder is how one man can dominate one lane at one track so thoroughly as Calvin Borel does at Churchill Downs along the rail?  It is absolutely astonishing.  Twice now in the last 3 years he’s made the same move and won the Derby.   

On Friday we had visions of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont as Rachel Alexandra throttled the Oaks field by over 20 lengths. On Saturday we were treated to visions of Street Sense in the ’07 Derby, as Calvin  Borel  did what he always does.  He found the rail, made his move, and then continued to to extend throughout the stretch.  Mind That Bird opened up a final margin of 6  3/4 lengths and completed the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby in 2:02.66.

How on earth did this happen?   A son of  Birdstone, Mine That Bird had never broken the 90 Beyer Speed Figure level.  In fact, he had barely broken the 80′s.  Talk about a stunning improvement. Exiting back to back less-than-inspiring performances in ungraded stakes at Sunland Park, for goodness sakes, he was less than an afterthought.   I ‘ll be honest.  I had him ranked as the third from lowest contender in this field.  That’s right - 3rd from last.   Never saw that coming in a million years. The only runners I had behind him were Atomic Rain (who finished 16th), and Flying Private (who finished last).  Of course, the horse I did have finished 18th (Friesan Fire).  Sigh.

Yet Mine That Bird, somehow, was clearly the best.  Once you could see him making his move along the rail, all you could think of was “wait, who the heck is that along the rail?”  As if we even needed to ask.  It could only be one man, and just like he did aboard Street Sense in 2007, he did again in 2009.  

In the “race behind the race”, an interesting battle was happening that many racing fans may have missed.  Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem battled it out and ultimately rounded out the superfecta, respectively.  Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird were another 6 lengths back from the top four. 

The final results with beaten lengths was as follows:

  • #8 Mine That Bird  —
  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile – 6  3/4
  • #2 Musket Man – 6 3/4
  • #7 Papa Clem – 7
  • #11 Chocolate Candy – 13
  • #17 Summer Bird – 13 1/4
  •  #9 Join in the Dance – 14 1/2
  • #10 Regal Ransom – 15
  • #1 West Side Bernie – 15 3/4
  • #12 General Quarters – 17 3/4
  • #15 Dunkirk – 19 1/4
  • #5 Hold Me Back – 20 3/4
  • #4 Advice – 21 1/4
  • #19 Desert Party – 22
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff – 22 1/4
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide – 35 1/4
  • #6 Friesan Fire – 42 3/4
  • #20 Flying Private – 44

Obviously the most disappointing of these was post time favorite Friesan Fire, who was beaten by over 40 lengths.  Most likely this is because I selected him once I Want Revenge was scratched.  My apologies to the Larry Jones camp.  Now I just hope he checks out okay without an injury.  Finishing 40 lengths back at his talent level is more than worrisome.

All of this makes the Preakness, just 2 weeks away, a more intriguing race. 

  • How many runners will be scared away from Mine That Bird?  
  • Was it the sloppy track? 
  • Was it some other factor that makes him vulnerable two weeks from now (and beyond)? 

I’m thinking many will be expecting a significant bounce off of that performance.  The Preakness, due to it’s reduced field size of 12, tends to be a better barometer in terms of absolute talent. 

Speaking of which…we  went into the week thinking we had a fairly good handle on who the best 3-year-olds in the country were.  We leave with Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird  seemingly on a level of their own.  Hats off to the connections of each.  

Is there any chance we might see them in the Preakness two weeks from now at Pimlico?   We can only dream.  What a matchup that would be.


Comments : 37 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , ,
Categories : Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Alexandra the Great! Rachel Alexandra crushes the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths!

1 05 2009

You wonder if somebody  told Rachel Alexandra? With the late scratch of Zenyatta from Friday’s Oaks card at Churchill Downs, the spotlight was squarely on her as she went to post in the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Roughly one minute and 49 seconds later she was cruising across the finish line in perhaps the most impressive 3-year-old filly race we’ve seen in years.  She’s no longer simply Rachel Alexandra.  With a performance like that come the never-ending accolades.  She’s now earned the title “Rachel Alexandra the Great.” 

That camera angle showing the gaping distance between Rachel Alexandra and the rest of the field brings back memories of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont, doesn’t it?  

Results Chart

Effortless….brilliant….flawless…superb! 

Words cannot even begin to describe what she did to the field. 

Out of the gate, she tucked in just off of early pace setter Gabby’s Golden Girl, who set opening splits of :23.75 and :47.46.   Entering the turn she drew up even with Gabby’s Golden Girl when barely nudged by jockey Calvin Borel.   By the time these two entered the top of the stretch, Rachel Alexandra had struck the front, and would never look back.  Well, that last sentence is only partly true, as Borel did a little stylish looking over his shoulder while keeping her firmly held throughout the stretch.

Amazingly, she cleared the final 1/8 of a mile in 12 seconds en route to a final time of 1:48.87, and all without ever being asked for anything.   Her head held high the entire time, she opened up a veritable can of “whoop-ass” on the rest of the runners, pulling away by a final margin of 20 1/4 lengths.  That’s right, that’s not a misprint.  20 and 1/4 lengths!!!!!!!!!!!

Rachel Alexandra returned $2.60 as the heavy favorite.  Longshot Stone Legacy, who was discussed as a possibility in the pre-race handicapping selections for the Oaks, blew up the exacta as the longest combo price on the board for $58 (not bad with such a  heavy chalk out in front).  

Even better, there’s a Pick 6 carryover from Oaks day to Derby day!  That can only mean one thing….millions will be on the line tomorrow in the Pick 6 sequence that ends with the 135th Kentucky Derby.  Calling all handicappers!   :)

Getting back to “Alexandra the Great”, is anyone else already drooling at the possibility of seeing her and Zenyatta duke it out  one day?   That’s getting way ahead of ourselves, admittedly, but it’s kind of difficult not to start thinking about such things.   Just an absolutely incredible performance.  It’ll be hard for the boys to live up to this tomorrow.  The bar has been raised astronomically high by the super filly.  In fact, if she were to announce for the Preakness or the Belmont, I think she be favored off this performance.  That’s how dominating it was. 

How good is she?  In the post race interview, Borel called her “the greatest horse I’ve ever been on in my life!”

When pressed further on whether that statement  included his winning mount aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Borel replied in more diplomatic fashion.

“She does what I want her to do and I’ve never asked her yet.  I don’t know how good she is.” 

Indeed, but one thing is absolutely certain.  In the 3-year-old filly division, there is a new queen.  Actually, make that a new goddess! And her name is Rachel Alexandra. 

All hail Alexandra the Great!


Comments : 15 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , ,
Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra

Next Entries »


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.