Saturday Derby Prep Selections

6 02 2009

Another Saturday – another weekend of exciting prep races building up to the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  This weekend we’ve got several key preps including the Grade 3 Risen Star, the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis, and, due to the fact that Stardom Bound makes her 3-year-old debut, The Grade 1 Las Virgenes.   There’s also the Whirlaway at Aqueduct, but that one looks like a one horse show for Haynesfield.  At least the others appears to be less of a “sure thing” – even with the two-year-old champion filly Stardom Bound in the mix.

We’ll start at Fair Grounds with the 36th running of the Grade 3 Risen Star

G3 Risen Star (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Map of the World (Albert Stall Jr./ C.C. Bourque) 20/1
  • #2 Indygo Mountain (William B. Calhoun/ H.J. Theriot) 10/1
  • #3 Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Corey Lanerie) 15/1
  • #4 It Happened Again (Larry Jones/T. Thompson) 10/1
  • #5 Uno Mas (Steve Asmussen/ B. J. Hernandez) 8/1
  • #6 Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/ Gabriel Saez) 7/2
  • #7 Giant Oak (Chris Block/ Edgar Prado) 3/1*
  • #8 Dumar (Steve Asmussen/ Sean Bridgmohan) 20/1
  • #9 Code of Honour (William Bennett/ R. Toups) 20/1
  • #10 Soul Warrior (Steve Asmussen/ P. Valenzuela) 6/1
  • #11 Summer’s Empire (Anthony Mitchell/J. Campbell) 8/1
  • #12 Flying Pegasus (Ralph Nicks/Robbie Albarado Jr) 6/1
  • #13 Au Moon (David Carroll/Jordan Leparoux) 8/1

 This sets up on paper as a clash between top 3-year-olds Friesan Fire and Giant Oak.  Somewhat surprisingly (at least to me), Giant Oak is listed as the slight favorite at 3/1 compared to Friesan Fire’s odds of 7/2.  I had expected it to be the other way around and was prepared to select Giant Oak for the mild upset.  Now I’m not so sure.  To be fair, 3/1 isn’t a bad price if you’ve got to eat chalk, and it is rather difficult to separate these two. 

I tend to be rather “sometimey” when it comes to Friesan Fire.  I’d love to see Larry Jones turn the tables on last year’s tragedy by capturing his first Derby title, and Friesan Fire would appear to be his top contender to do so.  The son of A.P. Indy took a bold move forward on the Beyer progression scale when defeating Patena and Au Moon in the Lecomte last month.  That being said, he’s also known defeat to both Uno Mas and Flying Pegasus.  You know Larry Jones will have him ready to run, as the man is simply one of the best trainers on the planet (especially with 3-year-olds), and he’s teamed up once again with his ace, jockey Gabriel Saez.  Perhaps even more importantly, while fresh, he’s got some recent races under his belt, something his main rival today cannot say.

Giant Oak is a horse that could be any type.  He also made a tremendous move forward last November when placing in  the Kentucky Jockey Cup.  He wound up sandwiched between Beethoven and Captain Candyman Can, two very useful runners  – the latter moving up Derby rankings as we speak.  He’s been working very sharply and came off of  a shorter layoff to post that 90 Beyer speed figure last out…but will he be ready to go 8.5 furlongs having been off over 2 months?  My guess is he will be, but he might need a race before he’s ready to produce a truly top effort. 

Larry Jones has another one worth checking out in this race in It Happened Again.  I’ve yet to see this one run, but he looks like a potential thief here.  Toss out his debut and his first try against winners and he looks playable here.  Although, his only effort on the main track here at Fair Grounds left much to be desired.   Uno Mas, Flying Pegasus, and Au Moon all look like contenders underneath that you’ve got to toss into the 10 cent superfecta equation, which I’ll play with Friesan Fire on top:

6/4,5,7/4,5,7,12,13/4,5,712,13  ($3.60)

 

Moving onto the Santa Anita features….

The Grade 1 Las Virgenes (1 Mile)

  • #1 Navigator (Ron Ellis/Victor Espinoza) 6/1
  • #2 African Skies (Patrick Biancone/ Joe Talamo) 30/1
  • #3 Century Park (Bob Baffert/ Tyler Baze) 20/1
  • #4 Nan (Craig Dollase/Cory Nakatani) 20/1
  • #5 Stardom Bound (Bobby Frankel/Michael E. Smith) 3/5*
  • #6 Haka (Christophe Clement/Rafael Bejarano) 10/1
  • #7 Saucey Evening (Graham Motion/Garrett Gomez) 8/1
  • #8 Toro Bonito (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15/1
  • #9 Pinkarella (Doug O’Neill/ John Rosario) 8/1

All eyes will be on the 2-year-old champion filly, Stardom Bound, as she makes her 3-year-old debut at her “home track.”  The amazing daughter of Tapit  made believers out of her doubters by absolutely dominating in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last October.  Since then she’s been on the shelf, being carefully prepared for a possible run in this year’s Kentucky Derby – where she might attempt to make history by being the first filly since Winning Colors to win the nation’s most famous race.  First things first though, she’s going to have to shake off some rust and put away this field, which has a few runners capable of giving her a significant challenge.

Navigator will get a lot of attention, and rightly so as an apparent front running type in what might otherwise be a paceless race, but I see her biggest threat as being the Graham Motion runner Saucey Evening.  The Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies winner seems to enjoy the surroundings at Santa Anita as much as Stardom Bound, and should be looking to close into whatever pace materializes in front of them.   She appears to be on the improve and might wind up getting first jump on the champ as they attempt to close.  It’s going to be a tall order, but is it really that hard to support an 8/1 horse with an apparent big chance over an obvious 3/5 favorite like Stardom Bound?  I didn’t think so.  She’s got a chance, and a chance at 8/1 is usually good enough for me. 

Of the others, Pinkarella looks useable underneath, as does Haka.  I wouldn’t seel Toro Bonito too shourt either, as she has a tendency to end up in or near the money in every race (apart from her last where she finished 7th).   Lastly, the Bob Baffert entry Century Park is coming off a Grade 3 win, and offers fairly solid value underneath at 20/1.

Don’t get me wrong, this one almost certainly goes to Stardom Bound, but I’ll take a flyer in a rare departure from my “Captain Obvious” habits in the 10 cent superfecta here:

7/1,5/1,3,5,6,8,9/1,4,5,6,8,9  ($4.00)

 

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Bittel Road (Todd Pletcher/ John Velazquez) 6/1
  • #2 Pioneer of the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) 2/1*
  • #3 Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) 8/1
  • #4 I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) 5/2
  • #5 Mark S the Cooler (Doug O’Neill/ Cory Nakatani) 12/1
  • #6 Oil Man (John Sadler/Michael E. Smith) 15/1
  • #7 Brother Keith (Bobby Frankel/Tyler Baze) 10/1
  • #8 Shafted (Marke Casse/ J. Rosario) 8/1
  • #9 Charlie’s Moment (Walther Solis/Jose Valdivia Jr) 20/1

We move to the boys for the 71st running of the Robert B. Lewis.   Pioneer of the Nile is the big gun here, coming off a victory in the Cash Call Futurity that depending on who you talk to was either visually impressive or nothing to write home about.  Based on the fact that the third place finisher, Chocolate Candy, went  on to win his next out at Golden Gate, I’ve been gradually growing fonder of that effort.   The son of Empire Maker can handle the distance, we know that, and has been working like a bat out of hell.  As of right now it’s between him and The Pamplemousse for the top 3-year-old colt on the left coast.  Only trouble is, as has been widely reported, he doesn’t really “need” this race.  He’s probably already a Derby lock.  How might that affect things in the race?  Probably not too much, but it might be worth taking a stand against him and looking for value elsewhere, even though as in the Las Virgenes that means playing into the teeth of a worthy favorite. 

So who might the main competition be?  Some folks will side with Brother Keith, for trainer Bobby Frankel – a man who has had success in this race in the past.   Brother Keith had a nice workout here on Monday and could be prepped for his best effort now that jockey Tyler Baze has hopped aboard.  I’m not sold though.  He’s probably going to be a major part of whatever happens up front pace wise, but I need to see more of a killer instinct from him (which is possible) before I can back him.

I Want Revenge is an obvious choice having finished well gainst Pioneer of the Nile in the CashCall.   Like his rival, he’s been freshened and has been working well in the mornings.  The son of Stephen Got Even is seemingly a lock to hit the board, having been in the money in all 5 lifetime starts. 

Bittel Road is another interesting possibility, and one I’d actually give a big chance on Saturday.  In his only two sub-par performances he’s been stuck outside in wide post positions.  He moves to the rail today and returns to the steady hand of jockey John Velazquez, who guided him to victory in the first two starts of his career.  He’s also out of the Todd Pletcher barn, and one thing you know for certain is that Pletcher likes to get a bunch of ‘em ready for the Derby.  This might be one of the sneakier components of his arsenal.  He’ll need to bring his best, but note that he made a sneaky ‘middle move’ from 6th to 4th before fading against Pioneer in the Cash Casll.  Right now he’s probably considered a better turf runner than main track runner, but his only main track effort was at Hollywood, which plays a bit closer to true dirt in my opinion than the often turf-impersonating Pro Ride of Santa Anita.  Don’t sell this guy short.  At 6/1 he could go off at double digit odds, in which case he’s an obvious play.

I’ll keep Pioneer of the Nile on top for now, but may go bombing with Bittel Road if the odds are right.   I Want Revenge, as previously mentioned, is an obvious player to use as well.   The others I’d give chances to round out the ticket include Papa Clem,  Brother Keith, Shafted, and Charlie’s Moment.  I’m not a Mark the Cooler fan and would much prefer the 20/1 odds of Charlie’s Moment underneath than the 12/1 offered on Mark the Cooler.

2/1,4/1,3,4,7,8,9/1,3,4,7,8,9 ($4.00)

In other quick pick action, I’ll take Grasshopper in the Mineshaft (Fair Grounds), Haynesfield in the Whirlaway (Aqueduct), and Cowboy Cal in the Strub.

Best of luck to everyone, and as the rains have been heavy at Santa Anita this week, be sure to check for late changes and scratches.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Handicapping Selections, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound

Friday Night Hollywood Park Picks

27 06 2008

Another long week at the office, another chance for salvation playing the ponies Friday night at Hollywood.  We’ve got 8 races tonight, and as you all know Friday nights never seem to go as expected.  I thought I’d offer up my thoughts on each race on the card.

Saturday’s going to be the main day of the weekend with the running of the Hollywood Gold Cup – unfortunately Heatseeker has just scratched from that race – there goes your logical single in the pick 6 sequence.  I’ll have more on that race early tomorrow morning.

For now, let’s focus on tonight’s action.

Race 1: Clm 25000 N2L – F+M 3↑ (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #2 Canonita (8/5*)
  • #4 E Bee Girl (5/2)
  • #3 Angel’s Reward (3/1)

Small field to deal with in the opener due to the scratch of Discover Dolly along the rail.  This means no trifecta wagering will be available.  I think the exacta here is pretty simple with Canonita and E Bee Girl. Theoretically Angel’s Reward could get a good enough trip to factor into the equation as well.  I was going to use Notacharlie’sangel underneath in the trifecta, but alas none will be offered in the opening race.

Race 2: Md 25000 F+M 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #3 Dice Afare (2/1*)
  • #8 Warren’s Cookie (5/2)
  • #5 Party Punch (6/1)

Things get a bit more interesting in the 2nd race of the evening.  My copy of the DRF purchased on Thursday had Warren’s Cookie predicted as the favorite, so I was a tad bummed to see that honor went to my top choice Dice Afare.  Dice Afare  has the class drop from Md 40000 to Md 25000 and that last race was encouraging for a debut.  It’s hard not to like the combination of Vladimir Cerin and Rafael Bejarano.  Look for improvement tonight in her 2nd career start.  Warren’s Cooke has obviously been knocking on the door and has every right to blow through it tonight.  I’d cover her name on the multi-race exotics as well.  Party Punch looks useful underneath for the exactas and trifectas.  I don’t think she can beat the top two choices but she should be involved in the outcome of the race and a minor award seems likely.  I’ll probably toss in Foxy Lady as well on the bottom of the trifecta ticket.

Race 3: Clm 8000 F+M 4↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #3 Gone Californian (9/5*)
  • #1 Hotitude (6/1)
  • #8 Early Anna (7/2)

Bottom rock claimers are featured in the third race of the night.  Gone Californian has run well since dropping to this level and looks to be tough to defeat tonight.  Her form looks good, she likes the track, and I’ve got no concerns about the sprint distance of 6 furlongs.  Hotitude is admittedly a risky choice as 2nd pick, but I think this 4 year-old can move forward off her 2008 debut on June 7, which really wasn’t that bad considering the time she had spent on the shelf.  I’d prefer some faster workouts from my 2nd choice in a perfect world, but then again bottom rock claimers aren’t usually associated with a perfect world, are they? Early Anna’s a horse that has burned me in the past.  I think she has to be considered here still, but I’ll shy away from making her a top pick and getting burned again.  I could see her getting a good trip today and she should be a part of the trifecta when all is said and done.  Spy Aly also warrants look warm excitement here.  She’ll have to hold on for dear life to hang on for a money placement it would seem, but it wasn’t long ago that she would’ve crushed this field. 

Race 4: Md 25000 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #2 Tigley (4/1)
  • #5 Dynaquake (3/1*)
  • #1 Peace Prospect (7/2)

The fourth race looks like the most wide open of the early pick 4 sequence.  Really I think any of these three guys can get the job done.  Tigley might seem an odd top choice, but I can’t ignore that combination of jockey Smokin’ Joe Talamo and trainer Brian Korimer.  They’ve paid dividends for me before and judging from the workout lines they appear to be on a live one again tonight.  Dynaquake looks plenty useful as well against this competition.  He earned place honors in his first try at this level last time out andtakes the hood off tonight.  I expect to see improvement from this guy under the guidance of jockey Michael Smith.  Peace Prospect warrants consideration based largely off the class drop.  He’s run against Md Sp Wt foes and $50k maiden claimers in previous efforts and ought to find the competition here easier to handle.  I’d like to get a good look at the outside horse, Joshua’s Dream, in the post parade.  Eric Guillot is hard to ignore with a first time runner and this son of Johannessurg looks ready to roll.

Race 5 Clm 25000 4↑ (5 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #2 Grey Black N White (5/2*)
  • #4 Capte Town King (3/1)
  • #5 My Friend Luis (7/2)

Hard to get too excited when your top three choices come up 1,2,3 on the morning line as well.  Grey Black N White drops in class (note, as does virtually the entire field tonight) and exits four very solid performances in a row. He’s got speed, but he may not absolutely need the lead to still factor here.  He is a 7 year-old, which does concern me, but on paper he seems the best of this field.  Cape Town King may scare some bettors off.  Whenever you see that dreaded double-lined layoff bar, you know you need to get a good look at the horse in the post parade before pulling the trigger. Thankfully we’ll get a chance to see him before launching the late pick 4 wagers.  It’s not hard to see how he fits here if he returns anything like his former self.  The workout tabs and the abilities of trainer Jeff Mullins have me intrigued that he just may come back strong enough to defeat this group.  My Friend Luis is going to need some pace to run at, but he may get what he needs if Scottish Diamond and Grey Black N’ White were to go at it up front.  It’s hard to back a closer at the distance of 5 1/2 furlongs, but he’s handled it before.  Still, I think of him more as an  underneath play in the exacta and trifecta wagering.  I’ll add Scottish Diamond into the equation underneath as well most likely.

Race 6:  Md Sp Wt 50k 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #3 Ginobli (7/2*)
  • #5 Unvarnished (5/1)
  • #9 Pop’shands Are Hot (9/2)

The second leg of the late pick 4 looks plenty dangerous for horseplayers.  We’ve got a lukewarm favorite in #3 Ginobli – who we saw last Friday night running well for 2nd place to Zetterberg at the $52k level.  Obviously you’ve got to respect his chances tonight after being nosed last out.  Note that last race was also against open competition as compared to tonight’s race against only state-bred rivals.  Usually that can be considered an angle in the horse’s favor.  Unvarnished might get overlooked a bit at the windows.  He’s got some speed and has yet to turn in his best effort. It’s a bit of a risky play, but perhaps Corey Nakatani can guide this one around the track for his best trip thus far?  Pop’shands Are Hot has an interesting up and down progression of Beyer speed figures.  Bejarano’s gotten some of his better runs out of him and they reunite tonight.  Not sure what we’re going to get with this guy but he felt dangerous to leave off.   There’s actually several other horses in here that I think have a good chance of making things interesting, including I Am Game, Mark the Bench, Tulip’s Dandy, and I’mblendednotshaken.  Yeah, that’s pretty much the whole field, so I’ll likely pass on the trifecta wagering or play a really cheap ticket straight up and hope for some luck.

Race 7: OC 62k/N2X F+M↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #3 Highland Torree (5/1)
  • #2 Brendolyn (5/2)
  • #4 Overly Tempting (7/5*)

We’ve got a short field for the 7th race tonight, but interesting nonetheless. I wound up liking chalk yet again here with Overly Tempting, but don’t take this gal at too short a price as she hasn’t held on for a win since December.  Still, she does have speed and you know she’ll be a part of things until someone comes and gets her.  Working against her is the horse to the outside, Wickednwackyingrid could  be pressuring her early on.  If she does, trouble likely awaits.  If she gets away clean, Overly Tempting could well wire this field.  Brendolyn was the horse I thought would get the best tactical trip and look to pounce turning for home.  True, she doesn’t have the best synthetic form to support a win wager (0 for 4), but her last two efforts over the artificial surface look strong enough to me. Highland Toree is quite dangerous here as the upset player.  Note that she’s only 3 but has defeated older horses.  That smacks of talent inside her.  Enough so that I made her my top choice.  Giddy-up!

Race 8: Md 25000 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #10 Peeka Buddha (3/1)
  • #7 Cavanaugh (5/2*)
  • #6 Kerzner (4/1)

We finish the evening with…you guessed it – more maidens! Cavanaugh is the favorite and will take a lot of action at the windows based off  3 straight in-the-money finishes in a row as he’s dropped in class – culminating in a 2nd place finish by 3 lengths last out.  Yeah, he’s a player in here for sure, and the field doesn’t look tough on paper, but I would’ve preferred a better showing off the class drop last time.  I’ll use him, but I’ll go elsewhere for my top pick.  That honor will go to #10 Peeka Buddha – a first time starter for trainer Brian Korimer that was a $115,000 purchase.  As noted in the DRF “closer look” comments – I’m not really sure what he’s doing debuting against such soft competition, but I’ll take it.  The workouts look decent and breaking from the outside should ensure a clean start for the debut runner.  Kerzner was my third choice but I’m not really excited about him.  Just the best of the rest really. I’ll probably think of using  Toppler as well underneath, unless someone else makes a favorable post parade impression. Don’t expect too much though – these are 25k maiden claimers. 

So there you have it – best of luck to everyone and as always be sure to check for late scratches and changes.  I’ll be back tomorrow with more Hollywood Park coverage – including Daytona earlier in the day and Tiago, Student Council, and Go Between in the Hollywood Gold Cup.


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