The Pamplemousse looks to “Wow” in the Sham

27 02 2009

You knew it would simply be impossible for me to resist a gratuitous Sham Wow reference when covering Saturday’s 9th running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita.  Twelve runners have gathered for the Sham to take on trainer Julio Canani’s Kentucky Derby hopeful, including a likely late shipper from the east in Todd Pletcher’s colt Take the Points.  The field for the Sham sets up like this:

Past Performances for the Sham are available here

  1. Hi Flyin Indy (A. Quinonez/E. Harty) 30/1
  2. Smart Bid (R. Bejarano/G. Motion) 8/1
  3. Tiz True (A. Gryder/ D. Hofmans) 30/1
  4. Lifeline SCRATCHED
  5. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canani) 9/5*
  6. Balfour Park (B. Blank/C. Lewis) 30/1
  7. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/E. Harty) 7/2
  8. Bourbon Bay (J. Rosario/N. Drysdale) 15/1
  9. Ventana (J. Rios/B. Baffert) 15/1
  10.  Mark S the Cooler (J. Talamo/D. O’Neill) 15/1
  11.  Unbridled Roman (M. Smith/ C. Paasch) 12/1
  12.  Take the Points (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1

The Pamplemousse ran huge last time out after getting the perfect trip in the San Rafael (G3) on 1/17.   The son of Kafwain (Cherokee Run) has improved on the Beyer scale in each of his 4 lifetime races.  He’ll be stretching out an extra furlong today in the 1 1/8 mile Sham, but also owns a victory at 1 1/16 miles, so distance would not seem to be a concern.  A more pressing question might be what kind of pace scenario the grapefruit (in case you’ve ever wondered what “Pamplemousse” means) gets on Saturday.  Regardless, he’s clearly the horse to beat and is definitely eligible of another gate to wire romp if he gets loose on the lead.

The obvious rival will be the recent maiden graduate and full brother to Colonel John, the Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff.  After struggling a bit in his first four races, he seemingly put it all together last out against obviously softer competition.  He’ll get the acid test today as he moves up to face tougher, although it’s not like this field is loaded with stakes winners.   Only the favorite can lay claim to that honor.  Besides The Pamplemousse, the only runners in the field with victories outside of the maiden ranks are Smart Bid and Take the Points.   Obviously he’s a thread if he runs back to his last Beyer figure. 

Looking over the rest of the field, Smart Bid is a horse I think will love the distance of the Sham, but it’s a bit of an unknown how he’ll take to the Pro Ride surface.  If you’re looking for a positive sign on his otherwise forgettable debut over synthetics last July, note that at least he was moving decently late, as indicated by the “mild rally” note in his comment line.  He’s coming off back to back wins, is trained by one of my favorites in Graham Motion, and obviously shares sires with a certain chestnut colt you might say I’m somewhat endeared to.  All of that and 8/1 make him a very attractive play underneath.

Take the Points is a horse who looks like a major threat on paper, but I’m probably going to pass at odds anything like 3/1.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a nice colt and he can definitely hit the board;  I’m just not fond of horses shipping from east to west.  Especially when they don’t have any workouts posted on the surface.  It’s a crap-shoot, and the odds to me don’t favor the risk/reward potential. 

Ventana is a runner who might be worth giving another look.  He was favored last out on the morning line in the San Vicente, something that many horseplayers scoffed at.  He ran 4th that day, but was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and a couple of the horses in that race (namely the winning filly Evita Argentina and runner up Leedstheway) are horses who should do well this year.  He offered no value in the San Vicente as chalk, but now the opposite is true as he’s 15/1 on the morning line.  I think when all is said and done he is a classier horse than many of the runners in here, so I’ll be using him underneath as well.

Bourbon Bay is another I think could be sneaky in here at long odds.  While his previous running has been on the grass for trainer Neil Drysdale, I like that he’s improved with each start.  Another move forward puts him right in contention in this field.   He handled stakes company rather well last November in the Generous (G3) at Hollywood.  Still, he’s been off for essentially 3 months, so his prospects at winning are rather slim.   As an underneath play on the exotics he should offer some value though. 

I’ll eat chalk here and play The Pamplemousse for the win.  I don’t expect very good odds on him though, so we’ll likely pass on the win bet and focus instead on the 10 cent Superfecta.   Ill use Smart Bid, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Ventana in place.  Add to them Bourbon Bay and Take the Points for show.  I’ll toss in Unbridled Roman and Mark S the Cooler for 4th.

Selections:

$.10 Superfecta: 5/2,7,9/2,7,8,9,12/2,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($6.00)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Tuesday Morning Derby Updates

28 04 2008

Here’s the latest and greatest as the buildup to Saturday’s running of the Kentucky Derby continues to gain momentum:

  • Behindatthebar, Todd Pletcher’s most recent Derby qualifier, will skip the Kentucky Derby and instead point to the Preakness on May 17.  Word is that they didn’t want to push the colt with his 3rd race in 5 weeks.  Pletcher will do battle with Monba and Cowboy Cal instead.
  • Denis of Cork is now IN due to the above defection.  The Southwest Stakes winner who was last seen disappointing in the Illinois Derby has been working well lately, including a 4 furlong workout in 47.76 on Sunday.  Even better news for the colt is that the winning jockey from last year, Calvin Borel, has signed on for the mount.
  • Big Truck put in a 5 furlong workout in 59.25 on Monday at Churchill Downs, which was fastest for that distance among 22 horses timed at that distance.  Trainer Barclay Tagg has got two shots in the Derby with Big Truck and Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati.
  • Visionaire breezed a half mile in 48.40 on Monday.  Michael Matz and company are looking for their 2nd Derby winner in 3 years after the great Barbaro won in 2006. It should be noted that Visionaire’s time was slightly better than Bob Black Jack (48.60), Pyro (49.80), and Z Fortune (51.00). 
  • Speaking of Bob Black Jack, the lightning quick colt turned in his 48.60 four furlong workout on Monday, then proceeded to gallop out to 5 furlongs in 1:02.  Don’t count this guy out.  He was right there with Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby, and prior to that had duked it out with Gayego and Georgie Boy in the San Felipe.  I doubt he can win, but he might have a say in the outcome. 
  • Steve Asmussen gave the final polish to both of his colts – Pyro and Z Fortune.  Pyro went 4 furlongs in 49.80 and breezed out to 5 furlongs in 1:03.40.  They were a bit easier with Z Fortune as they are worried that pressing him too hard on the heels of his effort against Gayego in the Arkansas Derby might take too much out of him.  The colt worked 4 furlongs in a relatively pedestrian 51.00 on Monday. 
  • The mighty Curlin was seen on the track at Chruchill in the early morning hours of Monday.  He was really just out to get loose and get back into the habit of working out after shipping home in triumph as the world champion following his victory in the Dubai World Cup.  Asmussen says it might be a month or so before we get an idea what the plan is for the 2nd half of Curlin’s 4 year old campaign. 

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Categories : Big Truck, Churchill Downs, Curlin, Gayego, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, Z Fortune

Saturday Derby Shakeups

19 04 2008

Big news this Saturday on the Kentucky Derby front.  One time favorite War Pass, who has had a 3 year old season from hell, has been declared officially OUT for the Kentucky Derby.  Nick Zito indicates the colt has a minor leg fracture and will be out until the fall.

This would appear to make Big Brown a sure thing lock as favorite on May 3 in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, and rightfully so.  If all goes well Big Brown may be able to get loose on the lead, with perhaps some pace pressure from Bob Black Jack and/or Recapturetheglory.

That means the other contenders, specifically Colonel John, Gayego, and Pyro, will have to run down Big Brown in the stretch.  Judging by the way he pulled away in the Florida Derby, that will be no easy task.

Adding to the intrigue of Saturday’s racing action is the fact that ESPN has just reported the connections to top 3 year old fillies Proud Spell and Eight Belles are “strongly considering a run in the Kentucky Derby.”  I’ve actually been hoping quietly that this would happen for quite some time.  Throughout much of the 3 year old campaign the fillies have been running just as good as, if not clearly better than the colts.  With Rags to Riches triumph in the Belmont last year, I doubt anyone will be taking them lightly.

It’s starting to get interesting folks!  Get ready for more drama as the field becomes more clear in the coming weeks.  Post positions may be absolutely crucial in this one, but War Pass’s departure has clearly shaken things up beyond what we expected.

In other racing news, Behindatthebar won for Todd Pletcher over the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes.  I’m not that impressed though. It’s good to see Pletcher get on a roll lately and certainly that bodes well for a horse like Monba, but two of his runners in both Behindatthebar and Cowboy Cal look more like types that would appreciate a synthetic surface than the true dirt.  

Also, in a gorgeous day of racing at Old Hilltop in Baltimore, Icabad Crane took the Federico Tessio Stakes.  While this doesn’t have any implications for the Kentucky Derby, the winner of the Tessio is often entered in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. 

Once again, one thing is for sure. It’s going to be a bitch ranking the three year old’s this weekend. I’ll give you guys a teaser since I saw all the ESPN analysts giving out their “top 5″ colts after the Coolmore. 

 

  1. Big Brown -  I just don’t think anyone’s going to catch him. Only a poor post position draw to either the inside of another speed horse (Bob Black Jack or possibly Recapturetheglory), or an extreme wide position – which would have to be something wider than the 12 hole that he already destroyed a field from in the Florida Derby – would be able to stop him.  Looks a sure thing to me.
  2. Gayego – Could easily see him just outside Big Brown and he would love to get a speed duel in front of him, but he could also get too close to the pace though.  He may be the wild card.
  3. Pyro - I’m not counting him out.  Forget what you saw in the Toyota Blue Grass and instead remember what you saw in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.  I’m looking for a comeback.
  4. Colonel John – just outside the top 3 and to give you an indication of how close he is, I bang my head against the wall deciding between him, Pyro, and Gayego.   He’s the last of the colts I don’t think you can count out.  The winner SHOULD be one of these 4 unless something crazy happens and they were to draw the 17 -20 holes.
  5. Monba - I’ve been moving him up in my mind and he’s finally overtaken Tale of Ekati on my rankings.  You just can’t keep Pletcher totally out of the Derby, can you?  Monba seems to be his best shot.

I’ll tell you that subconsciously I’m considering moving Pyro to #2 and Gayego to #3.  Part of my reasoning is that Pyro used to be my #1, and if I’m really serious about tossing his Blue Grass effort, than he should be #2.  There’s also a crazy “x-factor” going on my mind though.  While I was in California I actually dreamed that Gayego won the Derby by passing just off the rail to catch 2 speed horses to his front.  I know, I know – what the heck am I doing referencing an admitted dream here?  Well, to be honest, if he were to somehow do it and I didn’t tell you about the dream, I’d be kicking myself for life.

Still, I think it’s Big Brown’s to lose, and the others are going to have to pray for a disadvantageous post draw.  Barring such a situation, they will need to show up with the race of their lives to catch him. 


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Categories : Big Brown, Colonel John, Eight Belles, Gayego, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Monba, Proud Spell, Pyro

Coolmore Lexington rounds out the Derby preps

18 04 2008

That’s right folks, I’ve finally returned from California.  It’s been a long and somewhat exhausting trip, but a good one nonetheless.  I’ve been on planes and dealing with airports since roughly 4 AM PST, so forgive me if my thoughts seem a bit disjointed today.  I’m dead tired.  I’m not going to let that stop me though from enjoying the final serious Derby prep races tomorrow, as I fully plan to take in a day of live racing action at Pimlico.  That being said, the Tessio at Pimlico doesn’t appear to have any serious Derby contenders, so we’ll focus our coverage on the Coolmore Lexington Stakes instead.

This Saturday’s running of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland features several horses still flirting with visions of a Kentucky Derby run.  This will be their last chance to pick up much needed graded stakes earnings in an attempt to qualify for the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” on May 3.  

The Coolmore is a Grade 2 Stakes going 1 1/16 miles over the synthetic Polytrack at Keeneland.  Eleven horse have drawn into the field, which sets up like this:

  1. Atoned (Edgar Prado) 3/1
  2. Salute the Sarge (M.C. Baze) 4/1
  3. Samba Rooster (Garrett Gomez) 8/1
  4. St. Joe (Miguel Mena) 8/1
  5. Racecar Rhapsody (Robby Albarado) 9/2
  6. Felon (Julien Leparoux) 20/1
  7. Behindatthebar (David Flores) 12/1
  8. Tomcito (jorge Chavez) 6/1
  9. Big Glen (Rene Douglass) 12/1
  10. Riley Tucker (John Velasquez) 12/1
  11. Red Sandy (Jamie Theirot) 30/1

First things first, it’s been brutal trying to pick winners at Keeneland all meet.  Sure you get some longshots, but more often than not seemingly sure-thing chalks seem to suffer inexplicable defeats (Pyro, anyone?).  That really makes me nervous about Saturday because there’s a colt in here that I think the world of and would love to see move forward.

I first discovered Salute the Sarge watching Hollywood Park on TVG last summer.  I liked how he  looked in the post parade of a Maiden Special Weight event and selected him at odds of nearly 11/1.  He rallied in the stretch to prevail by a 1/2 length over Slam Slew, who returned to win his next race.  ‘Sarge went on to win his next 2, running off an impressive 3 for 3 lifetime record before falling to Georgie Boy in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  Georgie Boy beat him by 1 1/2 lengths, and went on to be considered a top contender for best overall 3  year old colt in California.  Unfortunately for Georgie Boy, he had some injury trouble earlier this year and is no longer on the Derby trail, but if he were he’d no doubt be a horse some would be talking about seriously.

Named for ex-trainer and TVG analyst Nick “the Sarge” Hines, Salute the Sarge next suffered back to back defeats, including a devastating 33 length loss in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in the slop at Monmouth.  That race is an obvious toss when looking at his past performance profile.  He came back to win the San Miguel at Santa Anita on March 29, beating a pretty good sprinter in Leonides at the short 6 furlong distance. 

Salute the Sarge is just the type of gutsy horse I tend to fall in love with.  I’ve watched this guy battle back through adversity, and if you’ll forgive my sanity for a moment (I warned you I’ve been on planes all day), I dare say he may have beaten Georgie Boy in the Futurity had he not encountered a bit of traffic trouble.   That’s really saying something and in my opinion deserves looking at again.  I’ve included the replay from the Del Mar Futurity last May below.  Salute the Sarge will come up late between horses to take 2nd place at the wire.  What I really want you to focus on is the steadying he had to do at roughly the 1:15 mark in the film below.  They’re right at the top of the stretch, and if you can spot the rider in the white cap having to rear back on his horse – you’ll have found Salute the Sarge.  Watch from that point forward keeping in mind that he no doubt lost at least one and likely several steps there, and then note how close he is to a colt as highly regarded as Georgie Boy.

Salute the Sarge encounters trouble at the top of the stretch (roughly 1:15 into video) but then fights back between horses for 2nd place in the Del Mar Futurity in May 2007.

 I think this is a very underrated colt.   I don’t think he has a prayer of a chance against the top rated colts in the nation on true dirt in the Derby or the Preakness, but I like his chances here today on the synthetic track. I’m also hoping that folks will ignore him a bit because of others with seemingly higher Beyer speed figure races.  

Tomcito is a very interesting horse to me.  A few weeks ago I gave him out as a trifecta filler underneath in the Florida Derby when the folks at the sports mafia were nice enough to invite me onto a podcast.  I like him here today for the same reasons I did then.  I like his connections, and I like that he has beaten older colts in previous efforts.  He also doesn’t appear to have any distance limitations to be concerned about, and in fact would appear to actually enjoy a bit more than the 1 1/16 of the Coolmore Lexington.  Still, I think his connections are thinking Derby run and they’ve probably picked the lightest major prep they could find to try and pick up some graded earnings. 

Atoned is a horse that just can’t seem to catch a break.  He’s got 4 second place finishes in his last 5 starts, including 2 by a neck and 1 by a nose. That’s got to be excruciating for his connections, especially since he’s gone up against some of the better 3 year olds.  Edgar Prado takes the reins today, which is interesting and certainly gives the colt a chance of waking up.  I”m just not ready to take a colt with what appears to be well documented “seconditis” as the favorite.  He should certainly factor into the race, but it would be tough to support a win here.

The rest of the field is a bit questionable, but as stated earlier – anything is possible at Keeneland.  Rhacecar Rhapsody will likely take a bit of play at the windows, having finished respectably in the Lane’s End.  I’m not buying though.  He hasn’t really done much since breaking his maiden and he’s got that dreaded Delta Jackpot finish in his past which appears to have been a slightly overrated race.  I’ll pass.

Big Glen won by a neck in the Rushaway, but appears to be one of the weaker off the pace types in here.  A finish in the money is possible if he can get a speed duel up front, which it appears may well happen.

Speaking of speed duels, there are two front running types in here that could both prove dangerous if one were to get loose on the lead.  St. Joe posted a 97 Beyer in an Allowance level victory on April 4 at Keeneland.  He appears a synthetic specialist that is very fond of the Keeneland track.  That being said, we’ve only got one race over 1 mile in distance to evaluate him with and it wasn’t one of his best.  If this were a 7 furlong race he’d be the standout favorite. 

Samba Rooster is another that appears to need the lead, but he’s got a disturbing habit of fading late at shorter distances.  If nothing else he’ll put up an early fight but will likely only serve to burn St. Joe out - which would open things up for someone coming off the pace. Garrett Gomez does take the mount, which has to be respected – but will it be enough?

I’ll stick to my guns here and take Salute the Sarge at 4/1 to win.  Any horse that was good enough to run with Georgie Boy ought to be able to handle this field.  Tomcito would be my second choice at 6/1.  I think if the odds are right he’s probably worth a saver win bet as well, as we still don’t quite know what kind of horse we have with him.

Atoned is an obvious play underneath, and I’ll keep St. Joe and Samba Rooster around for show thinking that one of them might hang on and wind up in the money. My el-cheapo trifecta would look like this:

4/8/1,3,4

Best of luck to all!  Go  get ‘em Sarge!!! 

Oh yes, and don’t forget you can watch along on ESPN2 Saturday at 5:00 PM EST.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail, Salute the Sarge, Tomcito

I’ll be gone most of the week….

13 04 2008

I’ve got some business travel to California going on this week that will leave me essentially missing in action.  As usual, I’ve posted my updated Derby rankings which can you find by clicking here.

I’ll be back on Saturday – and am thinking of heading to Pimlico this weekend if time permits.  I’ve also got a ton of yard work backing up on me, so I may not get the chance, but if so I’ll try and post some pictures and video.

If you’re looking for good horse racing information to read in my absence, here’s a few helpful links:

  • Stay up to date on the latest and greatest from my fellow Thoroughbred Blogger’s Alliance (TBA) friends by clicking here.
  • Ron Correll of the State Journal-Register always has interesting information to digest.  Give Ron a visit by clicking here.  Coincidentally, Ron should be interviewed on TVG again this Tuesday (April 15) around noon eastern.  Check him out if you get a chance.

I’ll be looking forward to touching base with you all again when I return.  Have a great week and be sure and let me know your opinions on the Derby rankings.  The field is starting to take shape and it’s about time to let the great debate begin as we all settle on our Derby selections.


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Categories : Horse Racing News

Arkansas Derby appears up for grabs

11 04 2008

Saturday’s running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn has drawn a field of 14 horses and could be anyone’s race.  The Arkansas Derby is widely considered one of the more prestigious official prep races for the 2008 Kentucky Derby on May 3, and offers a rich $1 million purse to be divided amongst those that finish in the money. 

The favorite is California shipper Gayego – who we last saw battling it out with Bob Black Jack while Georgie Boy snuck away with the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.  I really like this colt, but there’s certainly some concern about how well he’ll handle the surface switch to true dirt.  Some are also questioning if he’s got the pedigree to handle the distance on Saturday, but judging from what we saw in the San Felipe, I think he’ll be okay.

A slew of contenders have enterred to oppose Gayego, including Blackberry Road, Z Fortune, King’s Silver Son, LIberty Bull, My Pal Charlie, Golden Yank, and Indian Sun.  You’ll forgive me if I”m a bit pressed for time tonight and not able to give a full rundown of each horse individually.

The horses I’m most interested with along with Gayego would be Blackberry Road, King’s Silver Son, My Pal Charlie, and Z Fortune.  Blackberry Road has a habit of finishing in the money and is a horse I don’t think you can leave off your trifecta tickets.  King’s SIlver Son is a sneaky Steve Asmussen trainee that looked pretty good finishing 2nd in the Rebel.  My Pal Charlie finished 2nd to Pyro in the Louisiana Derby at odds of 60/1 – I doubt folks will let him go off anywhere near that on Saturday.  Z Fortune is a horse it’s hard to put your finger on.  He won the Lecomte in January and was second in the Risen Star, but looked flat when he finished 5th in the Rebel.  I’ll give him another chance to finish in the money.

One other horse I’d suggest taking a long look at in the post parade is LIberty Bull.  He doesn’t appear to belong based on class alone, with $0 in graded money earnings – but he does seem to enjoy running at Oaklawn and did win the WinStar Derby.  He could be worth a saver bet if you’re inclined to look for a long-shot. 

I’ll probably take Gayego to win, unless the odds get too short, over King’s Silver Son and My Pal Charlie in place, with Blackberry Road and Z Fortune tossed in for show.  Liberty Bull would be a side bet for me if he looks okay.

Best of luck to everyone on Saturday if you are playing the Arkansas Derby and/or the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News

Blue Grass is all about the money

10 04 2008

Twelve horses will go to post this Saturday in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keneeland for $750,000.  The winner will garner the lion’s share of the purse and take home $465,000 in earnings – essentially assuring their position in the Kentucky Derby on May 3rd.  

A combination of factors has led to the largest field for the Blue Grass in 25 years.  Most notably, their are dozens of horses still “on the bubble” trying to pick up graded earnings in order to qualify for the 20 horse field fo the Derby.  Additionally, a recent slew of upsets in the major prep races, dating back to War Pass’s debacle in the Tampa Bay Derby and carrying through the 3 “upsets” of post time favorites in last weekend’s prep races (Ilinois Derby, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby) have left many folks feeling like it’s worth it to take a shot and roll the dice with their respective colts.

To pull the upset this Saturday, they’ll need to get past the vaunted Pyro, who is clearly one of the top two colts in the country.  Many folks have him ranked #1, and while I’m slightly higher on Big Brown at the moment, you won’t get any argument from me with those sentiments.  The Steve Asmussen trainee has turned in some eye opening victories in the Risen Star and Louisana Derby so far this year.  If he gets to run his race, the other colts should be running for place and show.

However, before we’re fully ready to eat chalk here, keep in mind that last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, actually finished 2nd in his final prep in the Blue Grass.  Foolishly this was one of the reasons I picked against him last year in the Derby.  Like Pyro this year, Street Sense didn’t need to win the Bluegrass last year.  Street Sense ran a solid race, but wound up getting nosed by Dominican.  I only mention this because a similar outcome is possible this weekend.  Sure, Pyro looks much the best on paper, and he’s probably much the best in actual horseflesh as well, but they aren’t going to burn him out here if they can help it.  He just needs a good race, not a winning one.

This means we need to take a bit closer look at the field.  Let’s start with the post positions, odds, and jockeys.  

  1. Cool Coal Man (Kent Desormeaux) – 4/1
  2. Kentucky Bear (Jamie Theriot) – 50/1
  3. Cowboy Cal (John Velasquez) – 15/1
  4. Stevil (TBA) – 30/1
  5. Monba (Edgar Prado) – 15/1
  6. Big Truck (Eibar Coa) – 6/1
  7. Pyro (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 1/1*
  8. Stone Bird (Corey Lanerie) – 50/1
  9. Medjool (Michael Baze) – 30/1
  10. Miner’s Claim (Patrick Husbands) – 20/1
  11. Halo Najib (Garrett Gomez) – 15/1
  12. Visionaire (Jose Lezcano) – 6/1

From a recent form perspective, you’ve got several horses coming off wins in their last starts, including Cool Coal Man (Fountain of Youth winner), Big Truck (Tampa Bay Derby winner) , and Visionaire (Gotham Stakes winner).  These would seem to be your logical contenders, but there’s one other factor we haven’t hit on yet.  None of these guys, nor Pyro for that matter, have proven anything on the Polytrack.  Most have trained on it, but there’s a significant lack of racing experience on the synthetic surface.  Cool Coal Man, who just had a brother sell for a hefty chunk of change to Jess Jackson earlier in the week, is probably the most highly regarded of this group.  He drew the inside post and will likely try to use a similar stalking style to pounce on the leaders at the top of the stretch.  Big Truck is a rapidly improving 3 year old that was the benefactor of War Pass’s meltdown in the Tampa Bay Derby.  Visionaire is sort of a mystery horse to me.  He won the Gotham over colts like Giant Moon and Texas Wildcatter, but it was tough to get a good look at exactly how he did it since the race was shrouded in heavy fog.  He’s an off the pace type, so perhaps the extreme outside post draw won’t limit him as much as if he were a front runner.

As if all of that weren’t enough, consider that relative long-shots Monba, Cowboy Cal, Medjool, and Miner’s Claim are the most accomplished synthetic specialists of the race.  Cowboy Cal and Monba are very interesting from this group as they could well represent trainer Todd Pletcher’s last hopes of having an entry for the Kentucky Derby.  You may recall that last year seemingly half the field were Pletcher horses.  Cowboy Cal has been taking the turf road to the Derby, but desperately needs graded earnings after disapponting in the Hallandale Beach Stakes earlier in the year.  Monba was a horse we were expecting more from and looked like a legit Derby contender before having the trip from hell in the Fountain of Youth.  Medjool closed from the outside post position to finish a respectable third in the Lane’s End Stakes

It gets even murkier when you consider that another horse we haven’t yet mentioned, Halo Najib, finished ahead of Medjool last time out in the Lane’s End.  Need more?  Halo Najib also adds jockey Garrett Gomez to the mix.

With so many directions to go, what’s a horseplayer to do?  Well, I still think Pyro is good enough compared to the rest of the field that he can win without bringing his A plus game.  He’ll need a good trip, and these aren’t chumps he’s facing, but it would be impossible to pick against him.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce back effort Monba on Satruday either, and at 15/1 all it will take is a favorable impression in the post parade for me to pull the trigger.   If you’re playing exotics I think there’s an infinite number of directions you can go.  The only horses in the entire field that don’t interest me at some level (for the moment) are Kentucky Bear, Miner’s Claim, Stone Bird, and Stevil. 

This is one that’s going to come down to the wire before I’m willing to actually lay a bet.  I’m going to watch everything, including the post parade, before finalizing my selections – which really any horseplayer should be doing anyway. 

I also want to scrutinize the past performances a bit more to get a better handle on who the likely pace setters are.  I’ve got a hunch that one of them might stick around for a pretty big price on Saturday.  My advice is to roll the dice with whatever your gut is telling you.  I think this one is wide open despite the fact that Pyro is your likely winner. 

If any of you have any thoughts on the race, I’m all ears and would love to hear them.  Who do you see setting the pace?  What tickets are you thinking of playing? 


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Categories : Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Cowboy Cal, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pyro, Visionaire

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