Maryland Million Selections

25 09 2009

It’s that time of year again – the 2nd biggest day on the Maryland thoroughbred racing calendar, overshadowed by only the Preakness itself.  It’s Jim McKay Maryland Million time!  Twelve races, and 114 entries to cover here – a veritable handicapping marathon.  What follows is a quick analysis of each of the races on the card and some advance selections.  Weather could still play a factor in how this all plays out, but for now I’ve assumed we’ll still have fast/firm conditions come Saturday afternoon.

 

Race 1 – The Maryland Million Sprint Starter Handicap – 6 Furlongs

We kick things off with a six horse sprint for three-year-olds and upward.  I’ll get right to the point here as the morning line favorite, #3 VISTA MOON, looks very tough to beat on paper. The son of Malibu Moon has won 5 of his last 6 races, all at the 6 furlong distance.  Beat him to cash, but good luck doing so.  Of the other contenders in the field, #6 LITE UP THE NITE and #2 TAKE DOWN TWO would appear to present the largest challenges.  LITE UP THE NITE exits back-to-back scores at Delaware Park and Laurel, where importantly he has shown an affinity for the Maryland dirt.  TAKE DOWN TWO is the first of many Not For Love offspring on the card and was beaten by a neck after attempting to wire the field last out at Delaware.  He’ll be running for trainer Steven Brown for the first time on Saturday, and note that Brown is 29% first off the claim.  I wouldn’t leave #1 LATE NIGHT LOVER out of the mix underneath in the exotics either, as he’s been a part of the superfecta in all of his last 8 races going back to December of last year.

Selections:

  • #3 Vista Moon (3/5*)
  • #6 Lite Up the Nite (6/1)
  • #2 Take Down Too (5/1)

 

Race 2 – The Maryland Million Starter Handicap – 1 1/8 Miles

The morning line favorite for the 2nd race happens to be #1 SUMACHA’HOT who is also entered elsewhere on the card.  I think this spot makes the most sense for him, although he’s never been the distance before.  The son of Mojave Moon is 3 for his last 4, and has been in the exacta in 8 straight races – how’s that for some consistency, eh?  The one thing working against him (beyond the added distance) is the fact that he needs a bit of pace in front of him.  That should come from #4 GAMMY’s A WINNER- a wire to wire winner last out at historic Timonium race course.  These two have banged heads before, with SUMACHA’HOT getting the best of GAMMY’s A WINNER on August 22.  I’m going to back GAMMY’s A WINNER for the win here in the hopes that he gets loose on the lead.  #5 BELLE’S BROKER and #3 HAM AND ERNIE make some sense in here as well should the top two encounter some trouble, and should definitely be considered underneath in the exotics.

Selections:

  • #4 Gammy’s a Winner (5/2)
  • #1 Sumacha’hot (7/5*)
  • #4 Belle’s Broker (5/1)

 

Race 3 – The Maryland Million Oaks – 1 Mile

The ladies get their first shot of the day with the 24th running of the Oaks.  This race should be all about the pace scenario.  #5 LOVE THAT DANCE should be a big part of that pace setup, as should #3 LORI Z’s PUNCH, and possibly the outside runner, #8 BRIGHT GEM.  I think that should set things up nicely for #1 BLIND DATE, who happens to be your 7/5 favorite.  Also working in BLIND DATE’s favor is that she’s picked up the services of jockey Ramon Dominguez, who returns to Maryland for the day and looks to have a big shot here.  But for one dull effort at Monmouth back in June we’d be talking about a horse with 6 consecutive victories here with BLIND DATE.  I’ll keep LOVE THAT DANCE and BRIGHT GEM underneath in my selections.  I’d probably consider using LORI Z’s PUNCH at the bottom of the trifecta, and if you twisted my arm I might add in #4 FOOLS IN LOVE as well.  As an interesting closing note, 5 of the 8 horses in this race are daughters of Not For Love, who obviously has been enjoying his stud duty.

Selections:

  • #1 Blind Date (7/5*)
  • #5 Love That Dance (5/2)
  • #8 Bright Gem (5/1)

 

Race 4 – The Maryland Million Ladies – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

We head to the turf for the first time in the day with the 24th running of the Maryland Million Ladies.  I’ll be honest here – my selection has both practical and personal reasons.  First the personal – #7 AMIE’S LEGEND is a horse I’ve backed before (specifically in the Shine Again back on May 23).  Furthermore, the daughter of (who else?) Not For Love runs for trainer Graham Motion, who always gets bonus points in my book for the absolutely top notch stable he runs at Fair Hill, MD.  Lastly, her name is “Amie” – and considering my wife is of the same name (though spelled differently), could I really go any other way?  I don’t think so.  Luckily for me, she makes some sense here, although she is seeking her first career turf victory – that is something to keep in mind before accepting a short price.  #4 ZIGGLY makes a lot of sense here as well, having prevailed in 5 of 15 lifetime turf races.  Note that she ran respectably against Julia Tuttle last out, who I think would be a logical selection if entered in this race.  The other horse I’m interested in seeing here is #6 TALKIN’ ABOUT LOVE.  I don’t think 3/1 is a very attractive price for a horse making their turf debut, but her closing style and a decent workout over the Monmouth grass on 9/2 make her a possibility. 

Selections:

  • #7 Amie’s Legend (4/1)
  • #4 Ziggly (7/2)
  • #6 Talkin About Love (3/1*)

 

Race 5 – The Maryland Million Nursery – 6 Furlongs

It’s time for some babies, as we move to a 2-year-old event in the aptly named Maryland Million Nursery.  We’ll keep this one simple. #9 TOBOGGAN SLIDE is the most accomplished of these young runners, having prevailed in both lifetime starts (last out in a dead heat).  Now he just needs to prove he can run as effectively going an extra furlong, which I don’t anticipate being a tremendous challenge.  Two other horses appear to have chances to me should the favorite falter.  #2 CACTUS CHARLIE has been improving up at Monmouth against Maiden Special Weight competition and could sit a perfect stalking trip through the early going.  #5 LOVE WHO (quick – guess who his sire is???) also appears to be developing nicely and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this runner in the winner’s circle.  As for the exotics, I think #4 MORUMSCO makes some sense underneath as he’s working lights out (4 furlongs in :45 and 4) and had the lead at the top of the stretch in the debut.  Improvement should be expected in his 2nd career start. 

Selections:

  • #9 Toboggan SLide (8/5*)
  • #5 Love Who (6/1)
  • #2 Cactus Charlie (7/2)
  • (Note: I’d take a long look at #4 Morumsco in the paddock as well)

 

Race 6 – The Maryland Million Turf Sprint Handicap – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

I don’t know that I’ve ever met a turf sprint that I like, especially not one without a Linda Rice runner (she’s my savior in these races!).   Since I know such races are not my strongest plays, I’ll keep this one brief.  I like #1A HEROS REWARD here, although 3/5 in a turf sprint does not sound very appetizing.  I just know how this would go if I didn’t play him, he’d win.  If I cover him, well, you know how this story goes.  #8 NATURAL SEVEN also warrants some strong consideration here for trainer Ben Feliciano. He’s got 7 wins at the distance, which suggests he’s better at figuring out turf sprints than I am.  Add Ramon Dominguez to the mix and here’s your value horse.  #11 CITIFEST rounds out my selections.  #10 SANDBAGIN’ LOVER also makes some sense here as well.  Of the rest, #4 LYCURGUS is a horse that usually winds up in my selections, so if I play a trifecta here I’ll add him into the equation.  I might also consider #3 DISCO DANDY, who could be part of the pace and gets one of my favorite turf jockeys in the colony; Luis Garcia.

Selections:

  • #1A Heros Reward (3/5*)
  • #8 Natural Seven (8/1)
  • #11 Citifest (8/1)

 

Race 7 – The Maryland Million Distaff Handicap – 7 Furlongs

Oh, that tricky 7 furlong distance!  That’s what we’re up against here in the Distaff Handicap.  There are several directions one could go here.  The favorite is #8 ALL GIVING, a 5-year-old daughter of Allen’s Prospect who has racked up 5 lifetime victories at Laurel Park.  She’s also proven he can handle the 7 furlong distance.  That being said, the most accomplished runner at this distance is #3 SAXET HEIGHTS, a horse who might offer some value on the tote board should you be willing to take a chance.  Ultimately, I went with the chalk here, figuring she might simply be the best horse in the race.  #4 MET A MINER looks very capable as she either wins or runs a clunker.  Note that she hasn’t put two clunkers together in a row lately, so might that mean a trip to the winner’s circle is in order?   If she were running at 6 furlongs I’d say so, but so far she hasn’t been as proficient going 7 furlongs.  I think she makes more sense as an underneath play here.  Don’t overlook #2 LOVE FOR NOT, either.  On her best stuff she can make some noise here.

Selections:

  • #8 All Givin (7/5*)
  • #4 Met a Miner (3/1)
  • #3 Saxet Heights (5/1)
  • (Note: don’t forget #2 Love For Not, who has a chance here)

 

Race 8 – The Maryland Million Lassie – 6 Furlongs

Forgive me, but when I handicap this race I can’t help but hear the theme music from Lassie in the background.  “What’s that Lassie?  Timmy has a 2-year-old filly he likes in the 8th race?”  Ah, if only it was that simple. This looks like a race to take a chance, and I’ve settled on #4 LIL KIARA.  The daughter of Lion Hearted broke her maiden last out in the Monmouth slop and likes to be forwardly placed early on (though not on the lead).  That could set her up well for a big run here.  #9 FOR ROYALTY looks like the horse to beat, having tested the Stakes waters in her last two efforts.  Obviously it would be no surprise if she proved much the best.  I don’t usually advocate supporting first time runners in a race like this, but #13 BEAR CAVE looks playable to me.  I like the recent workout tab and trainer Rodney Jenkins is fairly accomplished with debut horses.  I’d also pay some attention to #2 BEN’S BOOTS in the post parade, if only because Ramon Dominguez is aboard.  If you’re looking for a real bomber, note that Pino is aboard a 20/1 here who defeated claimers last out at Laurel, #1 POLISH DANCE.  Interesting race.

Selections:

  • #8 Lil Kiara (4/1)
  • #9 For Royalty (2/1*)
  • #13 Bear Cave (8/1)

 

Race 9 – The Maryland Million Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The Sprint Handicap is usually one of the more exciting races on the card.  This year’s edition appears to be up to the task of continuing that history.  #3 NOT FOR SILVER ran into a monster last out in Vineyard Haven, who was once considered the top 3-year-old in training by many. I think he’ll appreciate the drop in class on Saturday, as well as the cut back to 6 furlongs, a distance he is 3 for 4 at lifetime.  This runner should be mighty tough here given his affinity for Laurel Park.  #4 ROARING LION is capable of triple digit Beyer figures, but hasn’t put such races together in back-to-back fashion yet.  In fact, depending on how you handicap, this horse could be a “bounce candidate” here.  I think his penchant for setting the pace makes him a player here, along with the switch to trainer Bruce Levine’s barn two races back.  Even so, I’m not going to accept 2/1 on him (at least not from a straight win bet perspective).  I’ll make him beat me at that price and look for more value elsewhere.  I’ve only briefly mentioned Pino’s name thus far, but I think he might be on a live one here as well with #9 GREAT LOVE.  We’re talking about a horse who seems to always run a big race at this track and distance.  He’s a player in here for sure, and 6/1 is decent enough value to be worth a shot if he makes a positive impression in the post parade. 

Selections:

  • #3 Not for Silver (5/2)
  • #4 Roaring Lion (2/1*)
  • #9 Great Love (6/1)

 

Race 10 – The Maryland Million Turf – 1 1/8 Miles

The turf feature awaits bettors in the 10th race on the card.  I’ll be honest and admit this is the race I have the weakest opinion on throughout the entire day.  I could make a case for #10 IZZY SPEAKING, #9 SIR TOGO, #8 MOON ALA MODE, and #7 POCKET PATCH.  Of course, I must also mention that #5 MOTOWN SHUFFLE destroyed one of my Pick 4 plays on Preakness day this year.  Pick your poison.  This is actually a very good betting race – I just didn’t feel very strongly either way. 

Selections:

  • #10 Izzy Speaking (8/5*)
  • #8 Moon Ala Mode (9/2)
  • #9 Sir Togo (8/1)

 

Race 11 – The Maryland Million Classic – 1 1/8 Miles

Behold:  The Classic!  While it  might not have the luster of it’s Breeders’ Cup namesakes, any racing fan understands the significance of a “classic.”  Last year we only had 5 horses in this race, so it’s a very positive development to have a field of 10 this year.  I’ve posted my picks for this race over on Case The Race, and you’re welcome to read the full review there.  Suffice to say, I’m taking a stand on someone other than the chalk – in this case #6 REGAL SOLO.  Why?  Well, for starters let’s continue the mojo that horses with “Regal” in their name have recently earned (Regal Ransom).  All joking aside, this horse appears to be in top form for trainer Damon Dilodovico, who is both lethal with fresh off the claim runners and knows a thing or two about wining the Classic.  I’ll take 6/1 all day long.  Don’t get me wrong, I think the favorites (#1 BROADWAY PRODUCER and #8 RHYTHMN MASTER) have BIG shots here as well, I just figured I’d look for a price here and try to beat them if I could, and REGAL SOLO had enough angles going for him to warrant making him the selection.  I’ll add in #10 SWEET GOODBYE underneath as she should be part of the pace. I might do the same for #9 IN THE JUICE who seems capable on his best stuff.  As for last year’s champion, #2 CUBA?  I thought he was an obvious single last year.  This year I think he’s more of an underneath play in the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #6 Regal Solo (6/1)
  • #1 Broadway Producer (9/5*)
  • #8 Rhythmn Master (3/1)

 

Race 12 – The Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap – 1 Mile

We end the day with a group of hard knocking ladies battling it out over a mile distance over the Laurel main dirt track.  #8 SCHEING E JET must be quite a good looking horse, as she’s been claimed in virtually every race she’s run in the last year.  What’s more impressive is that despite the constant scenery changes, she’s been little miss consistency turning out solid performances every time she goes to post.  I love horses like this -and think she’s the obvious selection here.  As for the rest of the field, #4 SERENADIA really stepped up last time out.  Another performance like that makes here a contender here.  #11 FOUR KARATS is another runner I’m familiar with having seen her live on Black Eyed Susan Day and in the Shine Again.  I think she makes quite a bit of sense underneath, especially at 12/1 (she’s been in-the-money in 5 of 9 starts this year).  As for the horses that might be so apparent to all, I could make a case for #1 WITH PURPOSE for trainer Peter Kazamias.  This daughter of Rock Slide seems to run a good race whenever she gets a chance to go a mile.  Plus she’s a chestnut, and we all know my affinity for them.  :-)

Selections:

  • #8 Scheing E Jet (7/5*)
  • #4 Serenadia (5/1)
  • #11 Four Karats (12/1)

 

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Laurel Park

Maryland Million Selections

3 10 2008

Finally, the weekend hath arrived!  The highlight of this early October weekend for yours truly will be the Maryland Million card tomorrow (Saturday) at Laurel Park.  Twelve races, each of them competitive in their own right, showcase the best that Maryland has to offer outside of the more famous Preakness, Pimlico Special, and Black Eyed Susan races in May.  Upon returning from the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas a few weeks ago, I decided it was high time I give my local tracks some additional coverage – as they were so crucial in my formative years as a budding horseplayer.  This Saturday is the perfect opportunity to focus some attention on Laurel Park, and I strongly encourage players from all over the country to consider joining in and playing along.  With that statement out of the way, let’s take a look at each race.  What follows are my initial thoughts – and it goes without saying they are subject to change and further scrutiny (especially with respect to the post parades).

Race 1: The Maryland Million Starter Handicap ($50,000) – 1 1/8 Miles

  • #10 Morethanclever (6/5*)
  • #4 Let Me Be Frank (4/1)
  • #5 Belle’s Broker (5/1)

Let Me Be Frank will have a chance to wire the field in the opener if all goes well, and if he makes a decent appearance on the track could be the win play at the windows.  To prevail he’ll have to hold off the classiest horse of the field, Morethanclever, who has been running well against significantly better horses and picks up the services of recently maligned jockey Jeremy Rose.  There are several horses that could be moving well in the stretch late, including Belle’s Broker,  Rooteen Hero,  Rubi Echo, and the back class play Off the Glass.  I’ll probably try and beat the favorite in the opener with the early speed, although Morethanclever does look formidable here and should get a clean trip breaking from the outside.

Trifecta Selections:  4/2,10/2,5,7,8,10 ($8)

Race 2: The Maryland  Million Sprint Handicap ($150,000) – 6 Furlongs

  • #2 Jazz Seeker (10/1)
  • #6 Grand Champion (6/5*)
  • #4 Lemons of Love (8/5)

On paper and from a quick look at the odds, this race appears to be a two horse race between last year’s winner Grand Champion and the always game Lemons of Love.  In the infamous words of ESPN College Football analyst Lee Corso:  “not so fast, my friends!”  I think that Jazz Seeker has a chance to get out in front here, and at 10/1 and coming off back-to-back close victories (by a nose and a neck, respectively)is worth a long look in the post parade as a potential win candidate.  Grand Champion is the obvious favorite, but the last time he exited a similar layoff (in March of 2008), he turned in his worst race in over 2 years.  Granted, that was against a monster of a horse in Commentator, but still, if you’re looking for chinks in the armor of a 6/5 longshot, you’ve got to be willing to accept such angles.   Grand Champion should get an excellent stalking trip and has every reason to run down Jazz Seeker in the stretch with his superior class.  Lemons of Love is usually right there and has finished as little as a head behind Grand Champion in the past.  I’m not sure the inside horse, Broadway Producer, will run in this race as he’s the likely favorite later on in the card in the Maryland Million Turf (race 4).  That would leave just two other runners, and of them I’d tend to prefer Celtic Innis over Rubi Echo as he’s more accomplished at the 6 furlong distance.

Trifecta Selections: 2/4,6/3,4,6 ($4)

Race 3: The Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap ($50,000) – 1 Mile

  • #6 Auntie Millie (7/2)
  • #12 Doolittle (8/1)
  • #7 All Attitude (3/1*)

This race is absolutely wide open with no standout favorite, as evidenced by the less-than-solid 3/1 morning line favoritism on All Attitude.  Figuring out how this group will handle the 1 mile distance is a tricky proposition.  The favorite didn’t come up in my top 2, but I wouldn’t advocate leaving All Attitude off any multi-race exotic wagers either. Really there are several more directions you could logically go, with #8 Heart Striker, #13 Star Mom, and #5 Kenaharra having some playable angles as well.  In the end I sided with jockey Gabriel Saez and Auntie Millie at 7/2.  This horse has been up and down on the Beyer scale jumping all over from a class standpoint, and hopefully a solid jockey like Saez can get the best of her. What I really like is that she’s used to going this distance on the grass, and while he was beaten by 4 lengths in her initial dirt mile attempt.  I think she can improve off that.  Doolittle is a horse I think you’ve got to use in the trifecta as she seems to hit the board lately. She’s probably a better turf sprinter than dirt miler, but she does pick up Jeremy Rose and trainer Hamilton Smith hasn’t made many wrong moves so far this meet. 

Trifecta Selections: 6/7,12/5,7,8,12,13 ($8)

Race 4: The Maryland Million Turf ($200,000) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #1 Broadway Producer (8/5*)
  • #3 Into the WInd (12/1)
  • #4 Dr. Rico (9/5)

The Maryland Million Turf is an interesting race that could break several ways. As noted before, Broadway Producer is entered in race #2 as well, but this is the likely spot he’ll actually run.  He makes an appealing favorite with a nice late kick on the grass that has earned him Beyer figures in excess of 85 in his last 5 trips over the lawn.  I would not sell Into the Wind too long at odds of 12/1 as I think this one has a right to be there as part of the pack moving well late.  Jockey Julian Pimentel has ridden this son of Partner’s Hero well before and you have to go all the way back to the first race showing on his past performances in the Daily Racing Form to find a race he really didn’t show up for.   Dr. Rico will obviously take a lot of play with that last race Beyer of 91.  All of these three will be depended upon some decent early splits for a turf route race, but they should be set up well by Gammy’s a Winner and Hound. 

Trifecta Selections: 1/3,4/1,2,3,4,5  ($8)

Race 5: The Maryland Million Nursery ($150,000) – 7 Furlongs

  • #8 Mr. Keeper (2/1)
  • #3 Juke Joint (8/5*)
  • #9 Callmemisterlouis (8/1)

If you love 2-year-olds, this race is for you.  The favorite is #3 Juke Joint, who has demolished the two fields he’s faced thus far in impressive fashion – and they weren’t slouches, we’re talking Maiden Special Weight $48k runners, and a state-bred stakes group.  Note the comments in the running lines:  “lightly roused” and “impressive, handily” – you know you’ve got a runner here.  The only thing is, there may be others that try to go with him early on and test him.  He’s run against comparatively small fields in those two races (5 and 6 horses, respectively), and with a full field of 11 runners today, anything can happen.  Mr. Keeper is the horse I’ll use for the slight upset most likely.  I think he could sit behind Juke Joint and whomever decides to tangle with him and look to make one move turning for home.  He’s only one horse away from being a perfect 3 for 3 and like Juke Joint has been facing decent foes for this level.  Callmemisterlouis could be the forgotten man here, but note that he was favorite in his debut, but then lost the rider after moving out.  He’s one of what seems to be 10,000 sons of Lion Hearted on the card today, and I’m curious to see how he looks in the post parade. Stone in Love is a bit interesting as well, though a shade below the previously mentioned rivals in my opinion.  You also get a whopping 3 horses if you work the Robb John coupled contingent of Crafty Lion, In the Juice, and Great Love into your play.  It’s always worth considering playing 3 horses when you’re getting them at 12/1, right? 

Trifecta Selections: 8/3,9/1,3,6,9 ($6)

Race 6: The Maryland Million Turf Sprint Handicap ($100,000) – 5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

  • #7 Natural Seven (3/5*)
  • #4 Kosmo’s Buddy (9/2)
  • #5 Lycurgus (6/1)

I’m fairly “Captain Obvious” here siding with the 3/5 favorite in Natural Seven.  It’s hard not to like a horse that has reached the 100 Beyer level in a field like this. Consider that the horse just to his inside (#4 Six String) is exiting a pair of races where he earned Beyer figures in the 40′s.  Yeah, it’s that kind of race.  Kosmo’s Buddy could make it interesting if the favorite doesn’t show up. He’s got some speed and he’s also rated a bit before as well. Of course, the same can be said for Natural Seven, which makes this appear to be a two horse race.  The thing is – I’m sure you guys know how that usually tends to wind up – someone coming through the stretch late at long odds that makes people scream, curse, and stomp their feet.  I’m guessing that might be Lycurgus from the 5 hole.  I like what he’s done at Laurel and this distance and that last bullet blowout on 9/20 tells me he’s ready to roll.  I’ll likely be standing on the two “obvious” choices in my pick 4, but if you’re looking to beat the favorites that’d be my play. 

Trifecta Selections: 7/4,5/1,2,4,5 ($6)

Race 7:  The Maryland Million Ladies ($200,000) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #10 Maddy’s Heart (3/1*)
  • #2 Debbie Sue (9/2)
  • #3 Absolute Heaven (7/2)

It seems like every turf race I handicap seems more “wide open” than the dirt races.  I’m probably just a crappy turf handicapper, but I digress.  The favorite Maddy’s Heart hasn’t won since last October, although that was in this very race.  She is vulnerable, although she has been running against Dreaming of Anna and Rutherienne – two horses I think would each be favored over this field if they were here today.  In actuality, 3/1 isn’t a half bad price on her, but she’s a far thing from being a “lock.”  Debbie Sue looks very interesting to me and I could see this one running big through the stretch late.  Absolute Heaven will be more forwardly placed than Debbie Sue and should be very close to Maddy’s Heart as they enter the stretch.  Another I wouldn’t totally count out of this is Miss Lombardi breaking from the 11 hole.

Trifecta Selections: 10/2,3,11/2,3,4,11 ($9)

Race 8: The Maryland Million Lassie ($150,000) – 7 Furlongs

  • #7 Blind Date (5/1)
  • #3 Miss Charm City (4/1)
  • #9 Fools In Love (5/2*)

Back to the dirt track we go in race 8.  This is an exceptionally tough race to decipher.  Miss Charm City is coming off back-to-back impressive wins to begin her career.  The question for her (and indeed all of these runners) is how she will handle the tricky 7 furlong distance.  Fools in Love is the favorite at 5/1 based off three solid efforts so far.  I thought Blind Date was a logical candidate to pull of the upset here.  She should have an easier trip relaxing early on, and there seems to be some speed to run at here.  Note that she was bumped in her debut, so that 74 Beyer could’ve wound up somewhat higher without that trip trouble.  Of course ,the same could be said for the 73 Beyer figure that Fools In Love earned last out, so just keep that in mind.  Onearmedbandit and You Rock also look like factors in here.

Trifecta Selections: 7/3,9/3,8,9,10 ($6)

Race 9: The Maryland Million Oaks ($150,000) – 1 Mile

  • #4 Saxet Heights (4/1)
  • #2 Sweet Goodbye (5/2*)
  • #8 Heavenly Moon (6/1)

There’s a decent field here of 9 horses for the 23rd running of the Maryland Oaks.  Most will figure this to be a two horse race between Saxet Heights and Sweet Goodbye.  Saxet Heights is 5 for 5 to start her career and has a habit of gunning other runners down in the stretch.  She’ll need her best to gun down Sweet Goodbye, who should be more forwardly placed and will likely get first jump on the pace set by either Church Bells, Love Co, or some combination thereof.  Obviously if we’re talking a dirt route (1 mile) than whoever gets the lead is a serious candidate to hit the board.  Still, I sided with the somewhat versatile Heavenly Moon for third selection.  This horse just always seems to be there and would appear to be in solid form.  I’m not sure we can totally dismiss Love for Not either in this one.

Trifecta Selections: 4/2,8/2,3,8,9 ($6)

Race 10: The Maryland Million Distaff Handicap ($150,000) – 7 Furlongs

  • #4 Spectacular Malibu (5/1)
  • #9 Lexi Star (4/1)
  • #8 Fancy Diamond (3/1*)

We’ve got another good one in the Maryland Million Distaff Handicap.  Really, any of these 3 horses could win, and I’d add Jet Away Jane to that mix of possibilities as well.  Fancy Diamond will likely look to wire the field with Jeremy Rose aboard.  These two got to know each other in her impressive 15 3/4 length debut victory last February here at Laurel.  She’ll have to get the full 7 furlongs today, and that might be an angle to consider playing against her if you wish to beat the favorite.  Spectacular Malibu gives you a proven runner at the 7 furlong distance at odds of 5/1.  She’s also run well at the mile distance over the synthetics, so the distance should not be an issue today.  Note that this horse took on Ginger Punch in the Grade 1 Phipps Handicap back on June 14.  Since then she’s dipped in class, but has what it takes to get the job done here today. Lexi Star is another classy mare I always seem to play. She’s gone up against Hystericalady and didn’t embarrass herself.  Jet Away Jane should be right there as well, and with the way La Chica Rica has been finishing in the exactas lately, I’ll add her to the mix at 10/1.

Trifecta Selections: 4/8,9/1,3.6,8,9 ($8)

Race 11: The Maryland Million Classic ($300,000) – 1 3/16 Miles

  • #2 Cuba (6/5*)
  • #3 Five Steps (7/5)
  • #4 Evil Storm (6/1)

The feature race of the day is actually one of the more disappointing from an overall betting standpoint.  We’ve only got 5 horses, so if anyone scratches you can kiss the trifecta wagering goodbye.  I’m not a fan of these small fields as it seems virtually anything can (and will) happen.  Cuba is a horse I’ve been looking to catch here at Laurel.  I was hoping he’d come south for this and  he has.  Commentator dusted him (and everyone else for that matter) in his last race, and if you scratch that and his Grade 3 try against Grasshopper and Honest Man, suddenly you’ve got a live one here. Five Steps has some impressive Beyers (104, and 100 – for example), but his last two races are a bit troubling.  Evil Storm has actually defeated Five Steps in the past, which is largely why he wound up as my third selection.  Use the favorite on top, and then hope a longshot hits the board in the bottom places, that’s really the only chance for a big score here unless the favorites melt down and you were incredibly confident with one of the longshots.

Trifecta Selections: 2/3,6/1,3,4,5,6 ($8)

Race 12: The Maryland Million Sprint Starter Handicap ($30,000) – 6 Furlongs

  • #12 Mass Charles (3/1)
  • #9 All Star Prospect (7/2)
  • #10 Allen’s Close Call (5/1)

We wind up with a starter sprint going 6 furlongs on the main track.  I’m going to be all about #12 Mass Charles for my friends over at That’s Amore Stables.  I’ll be cheering my guts out for you guys.  What a way to end a day at the races if he can pull it off.  All Star Prospect and Allen’s Close Call looked like the logical threats to me.  I’m being brief here because my one and only play is going to be on Mass Charles.  Let’s go Horacio (Karamanos)! 

Of course I’ll be wading into the Pick 4 pools as well.  We’ve actually got 2 of them, one beginning in race 3 and another starting in race 8. Here’s my initial thoughts on those tickets.

Early Pick 4 (races 3 through 6):

  • Race 3: 6,7,8,12
  • Race 4: 1,3,4
  • Race 5: 3,8
  • Race 6: 4,7

Total Cost ($48)

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Late Pick (races 8 through 11):

  • Race 8: 3,7,9
  • Race 9: 2,4
  • Race 10:  4,6,8,9
  • Race 11:  2,3

Total Cost ($48)

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Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for some good weather and a fabulous day at Laurel Park.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Laurel Park

Gearing up for the Maryland Million

1 10 2008

Now that Curlin has settled things and passed Cigar on the all-time earnings list, what’s the next “big thing” to focus on?  Obviously the Breeder’s Cup comes to mind, but that’s still several weeks away.  What’s a horseplayer living in the Mid-Atlantic to do in the interim?

In a word (really two words), Maryland Million.  Beyond the Preakness Stakes each May, the Maryland Million is the biggest day in racing just south of the Mason Dixon line.  I’ve already started handicapping the card, and while I won’t have any picks published until Friday (I’m only through race 4 at the moment), the card looks pretty competitive. 

Sweetening things a bit is the fact that Carrie Everly of the Maryland Jockey Club (VP, Marketing) sent us a care package after meeting in Las Vegas for the NTRA Marketing summit.  Would you believe I’ve already got my hands on  the 2008 Maryland Million hat?  That may not be a big deal to some, but I absolutely love getting hats at each of the tracks I go to.  It really all goes back to the merchandising component in the report we (the online task force) created for the NTRA.  What do fans look like?  Well, we wear hats for starters! I’ve still got the hats from the past few years of Maryland Million days and wear them with pride.  I like to think of them as a conversation piece – much like an interesting coffee mug or picture in an office serves.  It lets people know “that guy’s a racing fan!”

There were also other items in the package – including some fabulous shirts and a coloring book that my 4-year-old already adores.  He keeps asking me which one of the horses in his coloring book is Curlin – so I’ve picked out a few that I’ve said are him and given him instructions to color Curlin in a proper chestnut hue – although knowing this kid the horse is likely to wind up chartreuse or vermilion (two colors he learned from the infamous Blues Clues program).

Speaking of shirts, I’ve got to give a bit of public thanks to my buddy Teresa over at Brooklyn Backstretch.  She came through for me on Jockey Club Gold Cup day and shipped one of the “Curlin: Racing’s $10 Million Man” t-shirts to me.  Needless to say I was pumped.  While my ever-more-girlish looking figure probably won’t fit into the shirt enough for me to wear in public, it’s an heirloom I’ll treasure and hang on to for eternity. 

I’d also like to point out that our RSS feed for the TBA (Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance) has changed recently. If by chance you were previously subscribed to that feed, you’ll need to change the subscription.  The little RSS feed button I have over in the right hand column showing all the TBA blogs should be able to accomplish this for you.  It was a technical thing – just wanted to make sure everyone was aware. 

In other news, I see that Zenyata will run in the Ladies Classic as her owner has no interest in facing the boys.  If she wins and for some reason Curlin or Big Brown do not prevail in the Classic, I think you’d have to make her the front runner for Horse of the Year.  She’ll be doing her best Personal Ensign impression in October trying to remain undefeated for 2008.   Not bad for a horse that started out as an unknown maiden earlier in the year.

As for Curlin, I’ve got some private messages on facebook from folks who are hearing he “looks good” at Santa Anita.  We’ll find out more definitive information on Monday when he has his first scheduled work as right now it’s all just talk, speculation, and a good deal of hay eating.  I like the move to get him out there and get acclimated.  The more of a chance he has to get used to the new surface, the better. 

Here’s hoping I see some of you at the Maryland Million at Laurel on Saturday. I’m hoping for a good turnout for my beloved Maryland track.  They’ll be a small contingent of friends and friends of friends there with us.  If you spot me, stop on down and say hello – don’t be stranger!  I’ll be back on here on Friday with some picks for the 12 race event.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Laurel Park, TBA


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