Papa Clem bests Old Fashioned in thrilling Arkansas Derby victory

11 04 2009

Papa Clem out dueled Old Fashioned  in a stretch battle for the ages on Saturday in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.  At times it appeared that Old Fashioned was fighting back and might find a way to get back in front for the win, but Papa Clem was not to be denied.  The win makes Papa Clem a fast rising contender for the 2009 Kentucky Derby 3 Saturdays from now at Churchill Downs. 

Results Chart

The son of Smart Strike (who also sired Curlin) finished the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby in 1:49.01 and will now ship to Churchill Downs in preparation for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.   Ever since making a rather dashing appearance in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in early February, the colt has been flying just below the radar compared to some of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the nation.  If Old Fashioned was a consensus top 10 contender for the Kentucky Derby, than clearly Papa Clem, and his new found ability to relax, rate, and pounce are worthy of that same status now.

Old Fashioned was out in front early, setting quick opening fractions of  :22.65 and :44.19.  Ziegfeld chased the early pace in 2nd before being suddenly pulled up after the opening 3/4 of a mile.  Papa Clem was surprisingly held back in 5th position during the early running, patiently waiting for the right opportunity to make his move.   The decision to rate Papa Clem worked brilliantly as he struck the front as the field turned for home, setting off a stretch run that will go down as one of the more thrilling in Arkansas Derby history.

Longshot Summer Bird, who made a magnificent post parade appearance as a striking chestnut, ran well late to finish in third at odds of 26/1.   My beloved Win Willy, despite getting solid early fractions to run at, was never able to materialize a real threat, but did manage to finish 4th, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths.  It remains to be seen if they’ll still send him to the Derby.  Technically he’s got more earnings than Dunkirk and though he’s easy to miss in the replay video, his running line does denote he made a mild rally.  He certainly didn’t disgrace himself, although I was expecting better when I saw the early splits. 

I’ll be diligently working on updated power rankings for the Kentucky Derby, and needless to say Papa Clem will be a fast riser when they are released tomorrow.  Old Fashioned is likely still bound for the Kentucky Derby as well, and if they could ever get this horse to slow it down a bit, he might be a force to be reckoned with.   His two defeats have not been by much.   He sort of reminds me of Hard Spun back in 2007.  I thought the both of them looked like tremendously gutsy competitors in the stretch and think the Derby would only be strengthened by the entry of each runner on the first Saturday in May.

With the Arkansas Derby in the books, the major Derby preps are now over.  We’ve still got three weeks to ponder and question and will now begin paying close attention to the posted morning workouts for the contenders. 

Hats off to trainer Gary Sttute and jockey Rafael Bejarano for a magnificent job with Papa Clem this Saturday.  That stretch duel was exactly what we needed on a nationally televised broadcast.  Hopefully some folks stumbled upon our sport and liked what they saw.  I know I did from where I sat…then jumped…then screamed – in my living room.  Thanks to Papa Clem and Old Fashioned for doing their part to help Take Back Saturday.  Now let’s begin to look forward to what appears to be a very contentious 2009 Kentucky Derby.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Papa Clem

Old Fashioned favored in Arkansas Derby rematch with Win Willy

10 04 2009

When last we saw them, Win Willy was surging past Old Fashioned in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  This Saturday the two will square off again along with 8 other contenders in the 73rd running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 5:41 CT.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Captain Cherokee (A. Gryder/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  2. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 6/1
  3. Flat Out (J. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 10/1
  4. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Van Hemel) 20/1
  5. Ziegfeld (J. Court/ D. Romans) 12/1
  6. Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. Wayne Lukas) 6/1
  7. Summer Bird (C. Rosier/ T. Ice) 30/1
  8. Old Fashioned (T. Thompson/ L. Jones) 9/5*
  9. Win Willy (M. Berry/ M. Robertson) 7/2
  10.  Danger to Society (C. Velasquez/ R. Dutrow) 6/1

The Rebel was characterized by a speedy pace set by Silver City, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset.  The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower.  Coupled with the added half furlong of ground, this one should set up nicely for Old Fashioned.  After all, not long ago he was a popular favorite on many power rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. 

 

Jones will almost certainly have Old Fashioned attempt to relax more this weekend.  He’s removed highly acclaimed jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of jockey T.J. Thompson.   The two have combined for a 23% success rate over the last year in 176 races, so clearly they know how to get the job done.  While the speedy Silver City is obviously not here this weekend, we do get another likely pace setter in the form of Papa Clem, an eye appealing son of Smart Strike out of the Gary Stute barn. 

Silver City went the opening half mile of the Rebel in :46 flat.  The likely pace for the Arkansas Derby should be considerably slower.  I don’t think it’ll be as slow as Papa Clem got away with in the slop during the Louisiana Derby, but I doubt he pushes it hard enough to go sub :47 over the opening half mile.  Old Fashioned will likely tuck in behind Papa Clem and look to get the jump on him turning for home.  

Win Willy’s victories have all been against quick opening fractions, so if he’s to catch Old Fashioned and Papa Clem he’ll likely need them to be going at it a bit early on.   I will say this about ‘Willy – I thought his late move in the Rebel was one of the more powerful I’ve seen all year.   As a son of 2001 Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos, the colt sold for just $25,000 at the September, 2007 Keeneland auction sale, and finds himself now competing (and in the case of the Rebel, winning) against horses who cost over ten times that much when originally purchased.   I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper.  I expect him to be flying late, but this one really looks like Old Fashioned’s to lose. 

An interesting x-factor for this race is the Danger to Society, who makes his inaugural start for much maligned trainer Rick Dutrow.  We’ve been waiting to see this guy all Spring, and admittedly he’s a horse I took a flyer on in the Road to the Roses challenge.  He seems to have been working fairly well leading up to this, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him cranked and ready to roll for Dutrow on first asking.  He definitely offers value to those who refuse to eat chalk in this one. 

I’ll likely let odds determine the final play in this one, as I’m hesitant to swallow too much chalk myself here on Old Fashioned, especially considering how fond I am of Win Willy.   Looking over the past performances here the night before the race,  I am inclined to make Old Fashioned the top pick.   I’ll play Papa Clem, Danger to Society, and Win Willy in place.   Add in Poltergeist and Flying Private for show, with Captain Cherokee and Flat Out on the bottom of the Superfecta.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta:  8/2,9,10/2,4,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


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Categories : Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

How deep?

22 03 2009

“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?” 

Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade  may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above.  While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″  lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon.  If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds,  and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the  most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright.  While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.

So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1,  she’d be darn close.  Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank.  My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).  

  • #1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby.  Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly.  Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.

 

 

  • #3 Pioneer of the Nile -  I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me!   “Look what they done to my Santino!  Look what they done to my boy!!! “  He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks.  It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.

 

  • #4 Dunkirk -  It’s almost inexplicable.  A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm!  Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness.  My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories.  I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular.  People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes.  It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were.  He’s hyper-lightly raced.   We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend.  A loss will send him plummeting.  A win might make him the Derby favorite. 

 

  • #5  I Want Revenge -  it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham.  He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.  Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle? 

 

  • #6 Quality Road -  he’s often my forgotten horse.  My head-scratcher.  Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition.   He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth.  He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.

 

  • #7  Old Fashioned -  Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here.   Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.

 

  • #8 Win Willy -  I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy.   Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing:  “…then I saw his face.  Now I’m a believer!”  Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails:  “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!”  It is interesting to keep in mind that someone  (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well. 

 

  • #9 Imperial Council -  Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood?  If he does take the Wood, he’ll  be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group.  If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one. 

 

  • #10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April.  He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet.  It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff. 

 

Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.

Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors.  Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks.   Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me  in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win.  Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses.  You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer.   After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned.  It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems. 

Then there’s Dunkirk.  He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings.  It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week.   If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk.  Although he does need a clean trip.

How about Old Fashioned?  Remember that guy?  Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list.   He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.  Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned.   He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher. 

So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned?  Oh yeah, Win Willy!  Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders.  I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.

That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby.  And guess what, we can still go deeper.   Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road.   He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop.   It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge. 

And the list goes on and on.  I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being.  Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders.  Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo,  and Papa Clem and you get the picture. 

 So how deep is this year’s field?   it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep!   That’s how deep we’re talking about here.


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Stardom Bound

Old Fashioned the obvious choice for the Rebel

13 03 2009

It wasn’t that long ago that I was falling madly in love with a chestnut colt running  in the Rebel back in 2007.  While there is no Curlin (at least not yet) this year, we will be treated to one of (if not THE) finest colts in the nation on Saturday when trainer Larry Jones sends Old Fashioned to post,  leading the field for the 49th running of the Rebel (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park. 

Past performances available here

  1. Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/ L. Jones) 7/5*
  2. Hamazing Destiny (T .J. Thompson/ D. W. Lukas) 5/1
  3. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Von Hemel) 15/1
  4. Pointing Home (J. A. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 15/1
  5. Wise Kid (J. C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 9/2
  6. His Greatness (L. J. Sterling Jr./ M. Salazar) 12/1
  7. Captain Cherokee (L. S. Quinonez/ S. Asmussen) 8/1
  8. Silver City (J. Court/ W. B. Calhoun) 4/1
  9. Win Willy (M. C. Berry/ M. Robertson) 20/1

It would appear that Old Fashioned has scared off most of the would-be challengers.  The son of Unbridled’s Song looms the standout in the Rebel field coming off 4 consecutive victories to open his career, including the Remsen (Grade 2) and the Southwest  (Grade 3).   He’s expected to waltz past this field, and it’s worth noting that Larry Jones will be at Oaklawn with Old Fashioned rather than at Fair Grounds with Friesan Fire.  It looks like he should continue his triumphant procession this weekend towards the Kentucky Derby. 

Wise Kid is the horse I’m anxious to see in this field.  He’s progressed nicely up the ranks from Maiden Special Weight to N2L Optional Claimers last out.  The  son of Lemon Drop Kid has never seen the likes of Old Fashioned, but he certainly belongs with the rest of the field.

Silver City would be the logical choice underneath in exactas, having finished in the money in all 5 lifetime races (including 3 impressive wins sprinting).  He faced off against Old Fashioned in the Southwest and held on for place.  You get the feeling the exact same thing will happen this weekend, which might make him vulnerable to being upset in the exacta pool by a runner like Wise Kid.

Poltergeist is a horse I heard a lot of buzz about going into the Southwest, but he didn’t really show up that day.  If you liked him that day, you’ve got to at least like the 15/1 morning line odds this weekend. 

The head-scratcher of this race is Hamazing Destiny.  He put up a 96 Beyer in his debut over the Oaklawn track sprinting 6 furlongs on February 7.  He’s also been turning in strong workouts in the mornings.  The question is, can he run that type of figure stretching out to 1 1/16 miles?   I’d make him prove it before accepting him at 5/1, but then again there’s not a whole lot else to hang your hat on in this race.

Captain Cherokee, His Greatness, and Win Willy look playable underneath.  Let’s see…that’s pretty much the entire field though.  The only horse I don’t think has a legit shot of hitting the board is Pointing Home. 

I’ll take Old Fashioned over Wise Kid and Silver City in place.  I’ll spread pretty deep for the bottom spots of the Superfecta by adding in Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist, His Greatness, and Captain Cherokee for show.  Add Win Willy to that mix for 4th.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/5,8/2,3,5,6,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 ($5.00)

That’ll do it folks…it’s been a long evening, so there’s your picks for the major Derby preps this weekend.   One note as a horse racing fan – do make sure you also check out the impressive filly Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks.  She just might be the best horse running all day.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Old Fashioned puts away Silver City in the Southwest

16 02 2009

 

Old Fashioned, the impressive Larry Jones trained three-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song, faced his toughest challenge yet in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday and came out of the race a worthy front runner on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail. Breaking from post 5, jockey Ramon Dominguez was away sharply before tucking Old Fashioned in behind Silver City in the early going.  As the field turned for home, however, it had already turned into a two horse race between these two as they thundered through the stretch.  Old Fashioned put away Silver City rather handily, while Buzzin and Dreamin just barely avoided being nipped at the wire for show by a late charging Flat Out.

Results Chart

That’s a classy winner right there.  As easy as he made the win look, I think it’s important to remember that many, myself included, thought he would be significantly tested today.  To that end, it  looked like Silver City was indeed going to make him earn every step through the turn and the stretch.  In the end Old Fashioned was simply too much for Silver City to contend with.

The win sets up Old Fashioned as the dominant contender on the Oaklawn circuit.  I mentioned earlier in the weekend during the handicapping selections for the Southwest that he was a nearly unanimous stable selection in the Road to the Roses challenge.  It certainly looks like we’ve all hit gold with this one as he’s likely to be a solid favorite in both the upcoming Rebel (3/14) amd Arkansas Derby (4/11). 

Silver City ran a big race, but ultimately wasn’t able to hang on late in the stretch.  I really liked the way Flat Out was moving late.  Buzzin and Dreamin busted my superfecta ticket by hanging on for third.  Another jump and Flat Out would’ve had Buzzin and Dreamin for show.  Oh well.

In other action across the country, the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina came through against the boys in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita, under  a beautiful ride by jockey Garrett Gomez.  Gotta tip your hat whenever a filly shows she can take on the boys and win.  I was also happy that she made me look smarter than I am as she appeared to tower over the field in the pre-race handicapping despite being 5/1 on the morning line.  I also managed to hit the super in that one, although the value was nothing like what I had hoped for, even with the morning line favorite finishing 4th.

Things quiet down for a moment on the Derby trail with only the Turf Paradise Derby looming on 2/21.  After that, we’re right back in action with the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 3 Sham on 2/28.   All in all this was a good day for us in our Road to the Roses stables as we picked up points for Old Fashioned, trainer Larry Jones, and Garret Gomez aboard Evita Argentina.  Personally, I think Amy’s stable (which I of course helped her set up) is in FANTASTIC shape.  Just look at what she’s got lined up and tell me s he doesn’t have a big chance to score some major points.  My own stables are similar,  but as she did not enter until early this weekend, overall she is in better shape.  After winning with Old Fashioned and Larry Jones today, the rest of her stable sets up like this:

-Notonthesamepage  (Beyer freak appears primed for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-Captain Candyman Can (Probable favorite for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-The Pamplemousse (looms the top selection for the G3 Sham 2/28 )

-Haynesfield (current leader of the NY path to the Derby – next up in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Danger to Society (dangerous challenger to Haynesfield in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Mr. Fantasy (another who figures to test Haynes field in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Friesan Fire (likely favorite for the G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Patena (IEAH/Dutrow “A-horse” for the Derby?  G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)

Go baby, go!  :)


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned, Santa Anita

G3 Southwest Selections

15 02 2009

Moving right along with the Road to the Roses, up next we’ve got a showdown between two highly touted rivals at Oaklawn park in the Southwest (G3).  Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned is the morning line favorite having blown away the last two fields he’s faced by a combined total of 22 3/4 lengths.  He has yet to be truly tested, which figures to change on Monday when he runs into another son of Unbridled’s Song in the impressive Dixieland winner Silver City.

  • Click here for free Brisnet PP’s
  • Also note the new “Road to the Roses” page here on The Aspiring Horseplayer, where we’ll be keeping track of the results and replays for each Derby prep

The field for the Grade 3 $250,000 Southwest (OP, Race 9, 1 Mile) sets up like this:

  • #1 Retap (L. Quinonez/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  • #2 Lock Dubh (J. Court/ J. Talley) 20/1
  • #3 Silver City (M. Mena/W. B. Calhoun) 7/2
  • #4 Gersham (C. Borel/J. Baker) 10/1
  • #5 Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/L. Jones) 8/5*
  • #6 Buzzin and Dreamin (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 20/1
  • #7 Flat Out (J. A. Garcia/C. Dickey) 6/1
  • #8 Professor Z (C. Emigh/S. Asmussen) 12/1
  • #9 Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/D. Von Hemel) 8/1
  • #10 Silver Bayer (T. Thompson/D. Vance) 20/1
  • #11 Kick On (K. Tohill/ J. Petalino) 12/1

We’ll tackle the obvious here right off the bat.  The race most likely boils down to what kind of trip Old Fashioned gets.  If jockey Ramon Dominguez can get him to rate a bit and then make his run, I think it will serve the colt well for potential future engagements down the trail.  If , however, he makes an attempt to wire the field, I think he becomes a bit more vulnerable.  So far we haven’t seen Old Fashioned challenged for a lead, but that could be what happens if  Professor Z and Silver Bayer make an effort for the front.   All of that considered, he’s also coming off a 79 day vacation and could be expected to have a minor amount of rust.  The colt’s been working sharply in the mornings though, firing bullets, and looking the part of a nearly unanimous fantasy stable selection.

 

Old Fashioned wins the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct by over 7 lengths (11/29/08)

 

Silver City presents an interesting choice for handicappers.  The knock will be that he’s a  sprinter stretching out for the first time, but like Old Fashioned there are signs that this one could thrive at longer distances as well.  His impressive speed ratings have risen as he’s added ground, going 6 1/2 furlongs for a career long thus far.  He’ll need to get another furlong and a half to be in the mix on Monday.   The upside is that he’s already shown proficiency on the main track here at Oaklawn having won the $50,000 Dixieland on January 16.  He’s another who has been working impressively in the mornings building up to Monday’s showdown.   If there’s a runner in this race that looks capable of taking down the undefeated Old Fashioned, it’s Silver City.

Another runner who may be overlooked is Flat Out for trainer Charles Dickey.  Flat Out powered home to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 19.  That race returned  many of today’s rivals as well (Gersham, Professor Z, Silver Bayer).  Like the Southwest, the Smarty Jones just happened to be run at the 1 mile distance.  He’s also extremely lightly raced, having only 3 prior races coming into the Southwest.  Of particular interest is the fact that he was able to improve off of his Beyer figure in his 2nd race while moving forward from maiden special weight to listed stakes company.  That tells me this horse has the talent to compete in a spot like this.

Many players will also be focusing on Poltergeist, who romped home in an Allowance mile last time out at Oaklawn Park. I can’t find any reason to fault backing this colt if you’re looking for an upset, apart from the fact that he has yet to prove he can achieve as high a speed figure when stepping up in class.  To me, that’s what separates him from a runner like Flat Out from a handicapping perspective.

I’ll look for Old Fashioned to show his class and stay in front of Silver City in the stretch. I do think Silver City will make Old Fashioned earn every step of it though.   Flat Out will be coming late and will present the final challenge to Old Fashioned, who should get to the wire with a neck in front.  I’m calling it a win for Larry Jones, but much closer than the experts think (there’s my gratuitous Lee Corso moment). 

Oaklawn features some attractive vertical wagering possibilities, including a 50 cent trifecta and 10 cent superfecta.  When looking for runners to fill out the ticket that might offer some value, consider that Poltergeist looks useful, but I think he ranks a tad lower than Flat Out and Silver City due to his outside post position.  Ditto for Silver Bayer, who ran a big race for 2nd place behind Flat Out in the Smarty Jones.   I also like the look of some of the inside runners to threaten to hit the board for the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas including Retap, Loch Dubh, and Gresham.  Each should offer fairly large value if they manage to get through.  I also can’t totally count out Professor Z or Silver Beyer.  I mean let’s be honest, just about anybody can run 4th, right?

I’ll play Old Fashioned on top with Silver City and Flat Out in place.  Toss in Retap, Loch Dubh, Gresham, and Poltergeist for show.  Add in the rest apart from Kick On for the bottom of the superfecta.

Selections:

  • $.50 Trifecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($5.00)
  • $.10 Superfecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($7.00)

If you’re playing for the win, value will be there to warrant taking a stab with either Flat Out or Silver City.  They may be worth a spur of the moment play if they look the part in the post parade.  Ultimately, roughly 24 hours in advance here, I’m going to say Old Fashioned is the horse to beat, so come and beat him if you can. 


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Road to the Roses stable

11 02 2009

The past few nights have been rather hectic as I’ve raced home from work and immersed myself in the yearly right of passage that is making my stable selections for the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge.  Ten horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys – that’s what you pick.  You amass points by finishing in the money in major prep races over the better part of 3 months.  I can’t say I’ve had a lot of success with it, but I’m learning from my past and trying out new things in an effort to win the top glory that comes with having a winning stable.

I’ve named mine “The Aspiring Horseplayer” so that it’s connected with this blog.   Last year I believe I was “Stafford Stables”, but those responsible for the nightmare that turned into late in the challenge have been sacked (and those responsible for sacking those who have been sacked have also been sacked, and so on).  I started out well, but in the end was way too California heavy in ’08, with Colonel John, Georgie Boy, El Gato Malo, and Gayego.  No way I’m making that mistake this year.

Let’s start with the difficult part.  I’m not taking the horse that I believe would win the Derby if it were run today:  Vineyard Haven.   I know that seems counter intuitive, but there’s a solid strategic reason for this.  He’s prepping in Dubai at the moment, and probably won’t get his first opportunity to earn points for my stable until the UAE Derby on 3/28.  That is a Grade 2 (worth 12 points for a win), but there should be a “supplemental draft” after the first month of the contest, granting me a chance to swipe him after 3/14 as one of up to 3 additional runners I can add to my stable.   I’ll take the wait and see approach for now as I’ll need the potential for points from those limited stable positions.

I’m also not taking Stardom Bound, despite being a fairly big “Stardom Bound guy.”  I think the world of her, but the fact that she’ll be taking on the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse, and only IF she stays on the Derby trail (which is by no means a foregone conclusion) means that I”ll have to pass on her for now as well.

The top 5 picks for the stable are essentially a player’s “Simon Peter” – the rock, the foundation upon which the rest of the franchise is built.  For my top five, I’m taking Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire,  Patena, and Captain Candyman Can.  I did not arrive at this grouping without much debate, however.   The first three were “no brainers” in my opinion, especially with Old Fashioned pointed towards a very reachable win right out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday.  Likewise Pioneer of the Nile seems pointed now towards the San Felipe on 3/14 (just before the supplemental draft period) and the Santa Anita Derby after that.   Friesan Fire has simply done nothing wrong and everything right.  Patena and  Captain Candyman Can are risks though.  Patena might be Rick Dutrow and IEAH’s “A horse” judging from recent comments.  That said, he’s still a largely unknown and unproven colt.  Captain Candyman Can could be a one turn horse, but then again the Fountain of Youth has been shortened in distance, so keep that in mind. 

  • Old Fashioned (G3 S.West Stakes 2/14)
  • Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)
  • Friesan Fire (G2 LA Derby 3/14)
  • Captain Candyman Can (G2 FOY 2/28)
  • Patena (G2 LA Derby 3/14)

The name of this game is about racking up points and keeping as many runners with real chances of finding the winners circle each week as you can.  I mentioned that I wasn’t covering as many California runners, and that I wasn’t going to play Stardom Bound (at least not yet).  You may notice from below that another name is missing.  The Pamplemousse.  Why?  Well , for starters he’s probably really only a safe play as of right now for the G3 Sham on 2/28.  While that would be some nice early points to rack up, I’m not sure how much of a threat he’d be against Pioneer and Stardom Bound if he tried the SA Derby.  Besides, like I said, I’m going CA light this year.

The bottom of my stable is a place to take some shots.  You don’t want to get too cray here as you’ll need to depend on most (if not all) of the horses you select, but things get interesting when you get to this level of the rankings.  Haynesfield sticks out as an obvious play for the NY preps (G3 Gotham, G1 Wood Memorial), but he’s probably not the lock folks think he is.  I think you have to cover him, as he’s been very impressive beating suspect quality, but I don’t think you can stand on him alone for those preps, and the Wood is a G1 you definitely want to hit.  For that reason, I’m taking Mr. Fantasy as well.  He’s got two impressive Beyers and looks like a horse that could give Haynesfield fits as the distances continue to challenge the talented Speightstown colt.   As if that weren’t enough, I’m also going to cover the new edition to Rick Dutrow’s barn, Danger to Society.  Originally I was not high on this guy, but I’m taking the advice of author and journalist Richard Eng, who won this contest a few years ago.  If he’s good enough for him to take a stand on, he’s good enough for me.  Coincidentally, another friend of this site, Cindy Pierson-Dulay, is also listed as one of the pros.  I’ve got to admit, it feels pretty cool when folks listed as pros are people you’ve actually met and talked about horse racing with.  Hats off to each of them.

I’ll round out my stable with the impressive runner up finisher Flying Pegasus, who looks like a horse that will improve greatly next out with a more favorable post position.  I may be overrating this guy, but if so it would appear to be a mistake that many are making.  He’s probably(along with Patena) the biggest “buzz” horse at the moment I’m seeing whispered in Facebook discussions and horse racing boards.  We’ll see.  I’ll take a stab with my 9th slot on him since he is pointing to either the Fountain of Youth or Louisiana Derby (or perhaps the Rebel).  My last slot will go to Hello Broadway, who but for what in my opinion was a far from perfect ride from Edgar Prado, might have defeated Captain Candyman Can in the Hutcheson.  I’m willing to give him another try as he seemed a worth favorite before fading late in the stretch.

  • Haynesfield (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Mr. Fantasy (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Danger to Society (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Flying Pegasus (?)
  • Hello Broadway (?)

I’m taking Rick Dutrow and Larry Jones as my trainers.  Strange, I know, for someone who isn’t the biggest Dutrow fan in the world, but the man seems loaded with talent this year.  Ditto for Larry Jones, who figures to go out on top with his first Derby win.  If there’s a sense of justice in the universe for what befell the man last year, he’ll be the champion this year. 

Jockey wise I’m going with Gabriel Saez and Garrett Gomez.  Saez because I feel when teamed up with Larry Jones makes the most formidable tandem in the country with 3-year-olds, and Go-Go  because, well, he’s Garrett Gomez.  Need I really say more?

Hopefully you are all playing along as well.  If you’re interested in joining the TBA League, contact Handride and he’ll send you the activation code.  Or you could join our small, but growing Facebook group.  Yes, we have a presence on Facebook.  Just head to our homepage and follow the links to the Facebook group.  I can picture myself dancing like Dr. Evil when I say that.  “What?  I’m hip. I’m cool.”    :)


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Horse Racing News, TBA


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